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2023 NBA Playoffs: 12-10, +3.7 units
Thread: 26-20, +12.1 units

Wowza. Crazy couple days of basketball. One route was a one unit play on Boston ats and a 2 unit play on GS ats and I would’ve been up. I did like Cle and Milw ats today tho but like so much chalk. Also.. two series I was 0-3 on. One was three plays on Cle, the last is the first play of this leg that took the drama out. And 0-3 on Bos/Atl.. Bos/Bos/Atl I picked and they flipped ATS. Limit the plays overall.. my top plays of the day did better than the 1 units or supplemental parlay plays. Chilling for a bit, fun run though!

FYI - future Jeff, the two series I started 0-2 on, I proceeded to go 0-3. One same team (Cavs) and the other I flipped to Boston… it’s ok to acknowledge you have a series wrong. 0-2 and you should PUNT on it.

5/27/23 NBA

Miami +3 (-115) for 2 units

2023 NBA Playoffs: 13-10, +5.7 units
Thread: 27-20, +14.1 units

5/29/23 NBA

Miami +8.5 for 2 units

5/29/23

Boston ML -385 for 1 unit

2023 NBA Playoffs: 14-11, +3.8 units
Thread: 28-21, +12.2 units

Even though it was a late night play, and I may have had a beverage, I can’t believe I hedged. What a bitch move lol. I’m now 0 for a million trying to middle (at least it seems or feels like). Don’t middle, don’t hedge Jeff!

6/1/23 NBA

Denver -8.5 (-114) for 3 units

This is my balls to the wall, learn from this, moment. As you see, I very rarely do a three unit play. This game has pretty much the perfect make up on paper to want to play Denver -5, and lay 2 to 1. A true UA line manipulation in a big spot (NBA Finals), but I know this is a vacuum and a way over exaggerated take - but this one lands in that middle and I should’ve laid the lumber, I’ll keep the door open on line manipulation. If it doesn’t, which we know statistically it usually doesn’t, then play the ATS number you’re given and when you look up old posts and reasons, this is that moment to help decide if I like using that element in strategy.

(2 mins later…) NOPE. I don’t have the gumption to lay the 9. At the casino, making my plays, and zeros at both tables. For me I’ve always read red as lucky, black as not so much… so I had to see what the next roll was. A black 6? C’mon Denver will prob win by 6 now.

(3 mins after that)… -5 (-210) or -8.5 (-113).. yup that 5 would certainly be easier to swallow wouldn’t it. Third time’s the charm - I’m going with laying the lumber. When I walked back a red 9 was finalizing on the roulette.. idk then there were black numbers. I’m just going to soak up all this nonsense here and just do the “right” thing and hope it answers my questions in the future.

Before Denver/Miami game 1 tonight:

2023 NBA Playoffs: 14-11, +3.8 units
Thread: 28-21, +12.1 units

I had initially done a post before my Denver play, but I think I used a naughty word in it, and the forum automatically deleted it or flagged it. Anyway, all I was saying essentially is that I can’t believe I middled - or hedged in that Boston Miami game. If I liked Miami, I should’ve just taken the points. But in my gut, I truly did believe that Boston winning was more likely than Miami covering, so I chickened out. That brings me to zero for 1 billion, it feels like, when it comes to trying to successfully middle to place or hedge, etc. Don’t do that anymore, Jeff! Let the chips fall where they may. In the future when you look back on these posts, use this information, you’ve probably been in the scenario before… Now it’s just about not making the same mistake multiple times.

2023 NBA Playoffs: 15-11, +6.8 units
Thread: 29-21, +15.1 units

They won by 11. Was close, but they were up plenty and Miami tried to back door it. Ok! That’s the ticket then. As my earlier note said - stick to sides 9/10 times (let’s evolve that to ATS side) and if we’re manipulating the line, it’s gotta be around 5 and only for a hook. Otherwise just deal with the number you’ve got to work with. Sometimes you’ll lose a close one, it happens.

PS - I did like the total, over specifically, in game 1 that wouldn’t have been close. I liked Denver team total a lot too and it also wouldn’t have hit. I’m glad I came full circle and just went ATS without messing around.

6/3 NBA

Miami/Denver Over 215 for 2 units

I like this total. I liked Denver a little bit… But not quite enough to pull the trigger. I decided that the side in game two was a no touch. Also, I just noticed that I put June 3, but the game is tomorrow, June 4. I considered making the total a three unit play but this is how it landed.

2023 NBA Playoffs: 16-11, +8.8 units
Thread: 30-21, +17.1 units

Miami actually ended up winning outright as 8 to 9 point dogs. 111–108. It only squeaked over the total, but it happened with 54 seconds left, and I thought falling was going to come, at least more of it, towards the end of the game. I thought comfortable. Anyway, even though I do, and should stick to sides nine out of 10 times, when my play of the day as a total… Play it. And don’t feel obligated to take the side. As shown here, I almost put a one unit plate on Denver -8.5 and they lost out right. I didn’t love Denver… I liked Denver… But there was some thing off with how much everyone was talking about. Denver may just sweep them. I do think Denver is the better team though… But this Miami eight seed is something pretty crazy and they did beat the bucks and Celtics in the Eastern conference playoffs.

*fouling was going to come.
*I felt comfortable.
*is a total
*one unit play

Lol voice to text

6/7 NBA

Denver ML -132 for 3 units

I really like Denver to win this series, and I think the oddsmakers agree - at my local casino I was only offered Denver -1.5 games in the series, not straight up. I didn’t play it, don’t love it, even though it’s a plus money play. I do like Denver to win the series though, and for that to happen, they cannot go down 3–1. Then we would be looking at a similar series to Milwaukee and Miami. I know that I stubbornly backed Milwaukee earlier this playoffs as well, but that just gives me proper caution… I don’t think Miami pulls off the big upset again. Although… Is it even a big upset at this point? That said, I like Denver. This money line value I think is decent against a -2.5 line. As I said before - an occasional ML play is ok… as long as it’s like under -166. And even that’s prob a little high. This is sort of in my head potentially a two game sequence play, because if Denver lost game three, I would probably still really like them in game four. Miami shot 45% from behind the arc and game two, they still almost gave it back. If Denver wins game three as I hope and expect, I don’t know who I would like in game four. It would depend on the shooting, statistics and flow of the game, personnel, most likely. That said, if Denver is up to – one, I can’t see how the game four could be a three unit play for Denver at all… And if Miami should’ve won game three, but somethings flukey happens, then Miami might actually be the play in game four (even if I still like Denver in the series).

6/9 NBA

Miami +3.5 (-113) for 2 units

2023 NBA Playoffs: 17-11, +11.8 units
Thread: 31-21, +20.1 units

Still liked Miami there! Was just wrong on what I thought was a decent play. Ok way to go down imo. Didn’t buy any hooks - wouldn’t have mattered. A dumb Jeff would’ve bought that to 5 and paid hella vig. Good discipline. Can only buy hooks around 5 and only the hook, no full points.

2023 NBA Playoffs: 17-12, +9.5 units
Thread: 31-22, +17.8 units

6/12 NBA

Miami +8.5 for 1 unit
Miami/Denver Over 210 for 1 unit

I think those last two plays were more of a “heat check” (pun intended) than anything lol

2023 NBA Playoffs: 18-13, +9.4 units
Thread: 32-23, +17.7 units

Nice recored. I will definitely be following you next year.