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NFL 11/26 & 11/30/25

Baltimore ML & Miami +4.5 (-195) for 3 units

YTD: 11-4, +19.81 units

Survivor Week 13 (of 5 original entries):
Team 5: Baltimore Ravens
(PHI, BUF, SEA, DEN, DET, GB, KC, IND, LAR, LAC, NE, SF)

Onto the final 14 (of 191) survivor entries for my hometown city’s largest casino group’s first NFL football survivor contest. Remember sports betting hasn’t been legal for that many years.. so decades from now, I’d love to hang on and earn this title. Will need luck to do it though!

Last week Thursday I got the win needing every single inch of that tease (*always make sure to place plays like these as parlays so a push would still yield a play’s win overall). Thank goodness I went with the conservative approach and paid the vig because for the second week in a row it snached victory from the jaws of defeat. These lines are so sharp, oddsmakers are so good, and using key numbers strategically proves to be important. Find the team you’re betting that you believe will be likely to keep it close. The Bills lost by 4 as -5.5 to -6 road chalks against a backup QB Mills and the Texans. My play needed every bit of the +4.5. As for Monday, SF won by 11 as 7 point chalks at home.

Onto this week’s play. First, we’re fading the Burrow return in primetime on the road on Thanksgiving against a very desperate Baltimore team (after such a poor start - jolted urgency). I’m seeing 59-69% ATS and I’m just getting these public-y vibes about Cincy and seeing that -7 hold firm for Balt, I believe the Ravens win this game. I played them a few times this year but was always intentional with how I went with them. They were shaky out of the gate but now - no wiggle room. And they’ve been playing great. As for Cin, also playing well, but I’m not buying Burrow coming back and winning this one when Ravens (I believe) are going to start pulling away in this division. Defense is stepping up and Lamar will hopefully come ready against a kind of bad Bengals defense.

Second, Dolphins at home here. They were 5-3 at home last year (3-3 this year so far) and .. have they tricked themselves into thinking they can make a run? Idk. But I think you at least get a pulse from them and while Saints are far more feisty than ppl think, they’re still quite bad. They don’t have good enough play at QB. They had the same yards as Atl last week, but no offensive touchdowns. Atlanta’s defense is not that good. I’ll take a kind of desperate Miami team at home. Plus they’re off a bye, Tua is getting pressed in post games and Coach is acting feisty. Jobs are on the line this week. I was between them on the ML (-132), +3.5 (-177), or paying for the largest cushion at +4.5, which I did. At a total of 42, that +4.5 could loom large.

We went with Ravens over Miami for survivor bc, at the end of the day, I don’t want to go home betting on a 4-7 Miami team against a Saints team that just beat Carolina (our survivor pick a couple weeks ago that lost). I think Miami is better than Carolina, seriously do, but losing on a bad team would be lame. I believe this Ravens team with a healthy Lamar can win a Super Bowl. And I felt great about having the Niners on Monday bc, like I said, Carolina may have had the lowest ceiling of any 6-5 team in the history of the NFL, in my opinion.

YTD: 11-5, +13.96 units

Unfortunately my final survivor team Baltimore went down on Thanksgiving Thursday in the evening primetime game on Burrow’s return to the 3-8 Bengals. Cin won by two touchdowns and the turnover battle by 4 (5-1, 4 fumbles lost) and a Baltimore WR fumbled (knocked by defender) running into the end zone when it was 9-7 Cin for a touchback. Made it to the final 14 of 191 in the survivor pool.

Play loses before Miami even gets the chance to play Sunday. But as my buddy said sarcastically this evening .. “you love your division games…” - maybe avoid those more frequently buddy… and certainly the road teams. Those -7.5 to -10’s at home in non division games seem to be the most successful. Future self - may want to study those 16 plays so far this year. Improving each year it seems though. Trying to learn from past mistakes.

YTD: 11-5, +13.96 units

Unfortunately my final survivor team Baltimore went down on Thanksgiving Thursday in the evening primetime game on Burrow’s return to the 3-8 Bengals. Cin won by two touchdowns and the turnover battle by 4 (5-1, 4 fumbles lost) and a Baltimore WR fumbled (knocked by defender) running into the end zone when it was 9-7 Cin for a touchback. Made it to the final 14 of 191 in the survivor pool.

Play loses before Miami even gets the chance to play Sunday. But as my buddy said sarcastically this evening .. “you love your division games…” - maybe avoid those more frequently buddy… and certainly the road teams. Those -7.5 to -10’s at home in non division games seem to be the most successful. Future self - may want to study those 16 plays so far this year. Improving each year it seems though. Trying to learn from past mistakes. Good luck all!

NFL 12/7 & 12/8/25

Buffalo Bills -2.5, Kansas City Chiefs +4.5, & Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 (+156) for 2 units

I like the Bills today as my favorite play of the day and if I only did ATS, I’d go Bills -6. So I was able to bring the line down a little and combine it with a true UA play (Chiefs & Eagles catching some points). Three teams is a lot.. but we’re catching +156, so a little trade off there.

Bills laying the lumber… public is on Cinci BIGTIME this week and after the Bengals crunched me and the Ravens on Thanksgiving, I want to profit when what I believe will happen, happens. I believe this is a come back down game for Cinci and a get right game for the Bills offense. 7+ points, they should be able to win by a TD or more at home. Cinci can not play their figurative “Super Bowl” every week. They did last Thursday and it’s kinda cold in Buffalo this weekend. Remember, Bills have a decent run game now - so they should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half too. They know Joe Burrow.. so even traveling to Foxborough, this is not a trap spot. Bengals have been a playoff contender for years and knocked the Bills out a few years back. Bills are thinking focus this week at home, beat their little bro Pats next week and all of a sudden they’re 10-4, Pats are 11-3. Division is back on the table. Either way… Bills need to win this week first against a bad D in cold. Bills are 5-1 at home and were 8-0 last year by the way. And I’m cool laying the lumber with the excessive Cinci public support and line potentially tipping the other way… sharps may be thinking what I’m thinking. Also, am I crazy to still think Bills *can* win the AFC with it being wide open? … Chiefs too…

KC is -3.5 ish, I like catching points in a potentially defensive game, but I’m not sure crossing the zero and teasing them would bring as much value. I’ll take another public fade and also catch some more of the number. KC is 5-1 At Arrowhead and was 8-0 last year. Their season is literally on the line and they had 10 days since their last game. Texans beat a “come back down to Earth” Colts team that really has been bad on offense at times over these last couple weeks. They beat the Bills winning the turnover battle 3-0 but that was also at home. Texans are 3-3 on the road, 5-4 LY, KC should win this one, in my opinion. I’m ok with the value of laying all 3. Also, Houston has a lot of 3-4 point games.

Last play, Eagles after getting waxed by DA Bears on Friday… do I trust them fully? Nah but I don’t think the Chargers are actually that that good and they don’t have a home field advantage. If you look at the Chargers schedule the past few weeks, they haven’t actually played anyone good. They haven’t played a really good team all year debatably- other than KC all the way back in Brazil in week 1. Plus the totals for KC & Philly are low so catching +4.5 each could prove very valuable.

All three are legacy teams I’ve played plenty before and have their own reasons for being a little desperate and needing to bring a great effort.

YTD: 11-6, +11.96 units

Bummer, the hand that feedeth is also the hand that taketh. Bills won by 5 and bc of a backdoor TD by Bengals (Cin was also up multiple scores during the game) and we needed that line adjustment or we wouldn’t have even made it to Sunday Night. Similar yardage between Chiefs and Texans - but Patrick threw three picks and they didn’t convert a 4th and 1 from their own 31 leading to a Hou TD when it was 10-10 in the 4th. Play lost, but teasing the plays was needed. Also need to reflect on the legacy team favoritism.

PS Bills are going to win the AFC, imo; not positive about today at NE, but I do believe a Super Bowl return is in order.

NFL 12/14/25

Buffalo Bills ML, Kansas City Chiefs +3.5, & Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (+182) for 2 units

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship (+375) for 1 unit

Am I going back to the well one too many times with a three teamer? Hopefully not. My initial instincts were to not even look at this Chiefs game. Last week hurt too much when they lost by 10! But the truth is, from a handicap perspective, it wasn’t the wrong call. Also, it’s been a while since I’ve been influenced by a professional handicapper, I intentionally tried not to look all year – today seeing Indian Cowboys seven unit play on Kansas City gave me a little more confidence in this leg. KC is still an amazing home team and if the records were different, this would be a 7 point line I’d be itching to tease. LA played an OT game last week and won a dramatic one. I love the FG and hook here.

The Bills ML.. if you bet it earlier you may have gotten better odds but still.. the Pats haven’t beaten anyone!!! Even when they beat the Bills, they’re inconsistent. This team won 4 games last year. I’m not ready to anoint them going to the SB.. you want an outside shot bet that may be fun is Bills to win that division still somehow. I still think there’s a shot. Josh Allen > Drake Maye for now. This game is everything for Buffalo and this season is everything. I think they’re going to the Super Bowl. And to speak to the last post.. it’s worth two units to find out if they can win today also.

Lastly… the Hawks are in a mildly trappy spot.. but they’re at home playing Rivers. His job is to be respectable and try to only lose by 7 or 14. My bet of Seattle -6.5 aligns with both teams goals if we’re being honest. Only worry would be them up 14 and a garbage time TD and go for two. I actually thought about that and -6 may have been worth it.

Bumping Bills to win the AFC Chip to 2 units. (Current price is +350, bringing average unit play to +362.5)

Pending: Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship (+362.5) for 2 units

YTD: 11-7, +9.96 units

Two out of three is bad. Two weeks in a row, twice with the loser being certainly one of the main two plays (not the add on). I wonder what my overall +/- would be if I had split every play individually and paid the 3:1 etc.

Bills came back and won down from 21-0, KC held on the cover but lost 16-13 and I needed every bit. Seawawks -14 barely won 18-16 with 6 FGs, no turnovers for either team - a tough one for Seattle bettors ATS. Against Phillip Rivers who hadn’t played in 4 years, defense did what they had to - Darnold and the O couldn’t score 20 at home vs Indy. Thus no cover and a L on the parlay. Also by kickoff it was -12.5, so betting it -6.5, what key numbers did I even gain? Not a great leg of this parlay. If I liked them to roll, just lay the lumber in that case. Or get it to -3. Ironically it wouldn’t have worked this time, but still you catch my drift.

If Bills win the AFC Championship, it’ll be YTD: 12-7, +17.21 units

If Bills don’t win the AFC Championship, it’ll be YTD: 11-8, +7.96 units

A season that I let a great start slip away a little bit and then wasn’t betting every week. Learned some stuff I’ll be applying moving forward though that I applied this year. Could’ve been better so far, could’ve been worse. Either way.. good luck to all and… Go Bills!

NFL 1/10, 1/11, & 1/12/26 Wildcard Round

Bears +7, Rams -3, Bills +4.5, & Chargers +10.5 (+201) for 2 units
Bills to win AFC & Eagles to win NFC (+3063) for 1 unit
Bills to win AFC & Rams to win NFC (+1855) for 1 unit

Before diving into my way too long analysis. I’d like to point out that last year - only ONE game in the wildcard round last year was a single digital point differential. Teasing this round last year would have been a waste of time.. fwiw… so - proceed with caution. I’m looking right into the eye of the hurricane with my strategy. Another stat I found interesting was if a team was not in the playoffs the year before… they are an astounding 34-16 ATS in last 50. A step further, wildcard rounds are an even better 17-6 ATS. I’m with that stat on Bears, but against on the other three (and exposure on the Eagles against that stat, but they can win by 3 not cover and my future bet be ok) That said my lines are teased down or up, so two things can be true at once.

I put thought into how I executed these units for myself, and I’m a gamblin’.. but today is me seeing if I can align with a Bills run. A more disciplined system would dictate I pick two sides and find the efficient -105 to -149 and it’s definitely been more successful being disciplined fwiw (see LY Super Bowl props or my NBA season with an above 50% ATS and ~0-7 futures). I’m personally a gamblin lol. First, aligned my plays with the Bills future plays. Then.. it’s kind of two teases but parlayed together to have some fun gambling. 2 teamers are farrrr more efficient imo and my history shows it.. but this is kinda the all or none way to execute it lol.

I’m sure there’s a universe where I would have just done two 2-team
-tease-parlays, maybe Chargers & Rams with a little dual LA action and rolled with the Bills futures plays - but this Wild Card round, I wanted to get a little action rolling. I could’ve walked on the Bears bc teasing that defense scares me.. but this lets me have some Bills plus points action. I also have Bills to win the AFC Championship for 2 units pending from before, making Bills this week have six units of indirect or direct exposure.

Before the season started, my first real SB pick was Eagles over Bills. I caved and said Bills over Eagles bc I may or may not have gotten pressure from the Bills Mafia.. (fan group, not real mafia lol), but point is taking this full circle, I think these teams can make a Super Bowl.

I like the Bills here to make their first Super Bowl in many a year - AFC is too open and McDermott has an opportunity to prove everyone wrong. He schemes up any kind of run defense and hopefully Bills can take a lead in the first half, he may keep his job; can’t lose at a near pick on the road here. Jags have looked really good and are hot - but if you peel back layers on their win streak, Chargers are the only good win and west going east could be an anomaly. Two wins against a reeling Colts, Titans, Jets, way overrated Broncos team (imo).. but this is more about the Bills than the Jags. Josh finally has a run game - so that awesome run defense of the Jags may get some pressure. This week aside, Bills are the team I believe in this year to get out of the AFC. First time playoffs for a lot of these teams could be a challenge; the stair stepping process for
NFL teams is real imo.

As for the NFC, the value of the Eagles - who I like to beat SF (fugazi defense, banged up) and really step up during this playoff run. Jalen is a gamer & they’re somehow under the radar this year with this talented of a roster. Win one home game, one game against a team that is inconsistent at best (Bears would be cool) then meet the Rams in the NFC Chip ideally. He’s at home, playoff pedigree, talent galore.. I think they are in great position to win - and the only team I think can stop them is the Rams. I think Seattle has a week where they’re a little more imperfect somewhere along the way and get tripped up by one of these teams. Not sure which one or when but it’s just a gut feel. They could be competitive the next 5 years though. But this year, Rams are deep and really have an excellent passing game - which I think will prove valuable in the playoffs. I trust Stafford and McVay to find a win this week as -10.5 chalks and at this point, I believe they’d win in the divisional round at Seattle as well.

As for the Rams -3. Carolina has actually been a team I’ve bet against a bunch and on a couple times these last two years. One more time this week, Rams aren’t done here.. I feel extremely confident about that - but Carolina could control clock and Rams could find a win later. I’m only laying -3 (an expensive -480 towards the parlay but a necessary one bringing a +154 to +208.

Onto the Bears +7… I’m looking at both teams’ home and road splits the past couple years… it’s supposedly going to be windy in the city.. could see a low(er) scoring game but also.. both defenses stink. Packers are ice freaking cold… if they pull it off, I’m thinking they won’t be able to blow the Bears out.. especially with Caleb having backdoor cover opportunities too at +7.

Lastly the Chargers who are +3.5 - more a bet against the Patriots than for the Chargers - they only beat up on bad teams and any even decent teams they played were single digit games. I like Chargers here after a week off period against a lack of Vrabel playoff success and a young QB Drake (even though he’s excellent), but even better with +10. Patriots haven’t had as tough of a road as the Chargers have. Did you know the Patriots have played three playoff teams? Bills twice, Texans, and Steelers. That’s it. LA has a little inconsistency that makes me nervous.. but I think Jim has them ready this week. Could be low scoring, some Chargers TDs could get them there when I have nearly a double digit cushion.

PS tried so many different combinations it made my head spin.. trying to find the best “value” in still quite the gamble. I should probably make a rule that if I have a four team parlay (shouldn’t anyway haha), it’s gotta pay at least +200. Good luck all, Go Bills!

Pending:
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship (+362.5) for 2 units
Bills to win AFC & Rams to win NFC (+1855) for 1 unit

YTD: 11-9, +7.96 units (of this #, futures are 0-1, -1 units with two plays pending)

A four team parlay is too much. One push and two wins going into a final game would have been still live; +201 was just reduced to +144. Remember - I say this all the time, but if you bet with parlays/teases, make sure one leg’s push does not make the whole wager a loss. Old school books sometimes would say if you teased and had one push one win, that’s a loss. Not that it mattered because the Chargers let me down losing 16-3. Like wow. Herbert was bad, no excuses for a bad supporting cast, etc. Wowza - absolutely no touchdowns.

Which brings me to the Rams -10.5 I bought down to -3 (-435) and I really really was looking at -2.5 for -500 plus, but I was like dang I’m already paying so much and I wanted to keep the four leg parlay at +200 or more. PS I did consider (for only a short time) Rams -3.5 but was like “nah this strategy is a MUST get the team to -3 at least.” Thank goodness. I knew Rams could play down to their opponent and a 3 point victory could be on the table, but tbh they needed a late game TD to even win by 3. Push. Bears were down 18 (and 15 again with 5 mins left) in the second half and scored 25 points in the 4th quarter to pull off the come from behind win as 1.5 point dogs at kickoff. Bills were a line of -1.5 to +1.5 by kickoff and won by 3 in a back and forth classic. Down 4 as the Bills had their final possession, Josh ran in a TD with a minute left and defense held on.

Unfortunately Eagles also lost to 49ers 23-19 and that futures play is out. I was surprised. Either AJ Brown or Coach Siriani is not there next year would be my prediction. I thought we’d have a playoff Jalen and this Eagles team was phenomenal and the in-fighting was toxic winning culture but maybe it’s just toxic culture and they weren’t phenomenal- not just Jalen. AJ dropped that one late, what if Coach lifts him up earlier instead of yelling? Smith dropped the tough one. Jalen’s not an excellent thrower of the ball and I thought he was enough of a gamer where it wouldn’t matter, but now those who would say “what if you flipped Trevor Lawrence and Hurts, where would their careers be?” Interesting discussion point.

Four team parlay was too many but Chargers were a FG away.

PS the stat I shared… teams that weren’t in the playoffs LY went 4-1 ATS with Jags only losing by 3. That may have been the play of the week, following that statistic.