| unfairadvantage |
The Unfair Advantage NFL/NBA - Jeffrey here. Ready for another fun season, wish me luck (and more importantly, the ability to stay disciplined) and best of luck to you all as well (and good discipline)!
I’ve had a few different threads on here .. I own every pick, I’m just consolidating. Every season will have its own record… everything should be broken into chapters, imo, if you win - take the win and start fresh, don’t rest of your laurels. If you lose, don’t chase. Each season a chapter, each week a chapter, each play it’s own moment.
Here are all the other threads I have floating around; for context, I historically played mainly 2 unit plays (1 or 2), but then 3 became a regular thing from time to time and now, every once in a good while - I’ll shoot a 4 unit play.
The Unfair Advantage NFL 2021-22:
21/22 NFL Season: 18-11, +0.5 units
22/23 NFL Season: 13-15, -9.1 units
The Unfair Advantage NBA 2021-22:
21/22 NBA Season: 14-9, +10.4 units
22/23 NBA Season: 0-1, -1 unit (and it was a dumb ass +195 2 leg parlay that went 1-1)
2023 NBA Playoffs: 18-13, +9.4 units
The Unfair Advantage NFL & NBA, 2021 & Beyond: YTD: 8-20-1, -26 units
An absolute mess of 2021 NBA & NFL plays, including a ton of messy NFL futures. Quote from post: “Sorry all, this has just been straight gambling posted on here on this thread. When I return, I’ll do it right.”
The Unfair Advantage NBA & NFL 2020:
Mostly NBA plays, but some NFL playoffs, a splash of college in there too. Jan-Mar 6 2020: 42-29, +16 units. COVID NBA June-Aug stint: 8-13, -11.8 units. Sept/Oct NBA & NFL: 7-7, -4.2 units. Overall thread 57-49, Ending exactly even in units terms.
The Unfair Advantage Football:
Pretty much all NFL, an occasional rare NCAAF game or part of a tease.
16/17 NFL Season: 65-45-4, +29.8 units
18/19 NFL Season: 40-37-2, -6.4 units (18 NFL Season Sept-11/10/18: 29-18-2, +17.6 units. Finishing the NFL/NCAAF season through 2/3/19, it felt I was less in control - less YTD and more ping ping ping - play here, parlay there, tease there - went 11-19, -24 units.)
19/20 NFL Season (Sept ‘19 only): 6-11, -15.7 units
The Unfair Advantage NBA 2016-17:
16/17 NBA season: 88-80-1, +0.7 units
(Sept-1/10/17: YTD: 83-69-1, +25.2 units, went on losing streak - finished NBA Reg season (paused after Jan & one random play in Feb) with a 2-7, -20.3 units run. Playoffs: 3-4, -4.2 units)
18/19 NBA season: 33-29-1, -4.6 units
First post of my “The Unfair Advantage NBA 2016-17” Thread:
“My posted 2015-16 season and playoffs NBA plays: 160-164-6, -76.7 units
Last year, I posted a whole bunch of plays.. in fact, they're below in selections central. My below par record is right up there ^^. I also had a thread back from like 2011, holy crap I've been Unfair for years. (See what I did there?) most of the time it's unfair to the people reading these posts Bc I talk so much. Anyhoo, last year I did Plays from like 1-6 units with 90% being 6.. this year, I'll roll with the same format as my NFL thread currently going. 1, 2, or 3 unit plays. 60% or more will be 3 units, 30% or less 2 units, and an occasional 1 unit. I've always believed your strongest play shouldn't be that much stronger than your average play, but that's just me. Most righty handicapped locks only hit 66% of the time.”
The Unfair Advantage, Jeffrey’s Picks
15/16 NBA Season: My plays: 160-164-6, -76.7 (NBA playoffs only: 32-35, -16.3)
My 2016 NCAAM Plays: 1-0, +6 units.
“My Expert” Plays YTD: 53-45, -8.5 units (here was my post at the end: “I truly enjoyed following some of the best in the business, but moving forward, I'll be sticking to my own plays. I have a lot of respect for many of the handicappers (especially those whose plays I used) and especially the docsports.com family of handicappers. I am happy to offer my opinion on anyone out there, and if I don't know them – I will tell that as well. As you can see, winners are out there. It's just a matter of finding them and finding them at the right time (or sticking with them for some type of system). Even the best handicapper's best game is only appx 66% likely to win (if it's a -110 bet, of course) in my opinion. Keep that in mind, never chase, play with control, and good luck!”) As part of the thread I tried to pick the expert plays I wanted to bet. Realized just to roll with my own plays. Can use “good” handicappers for ideas/inspiration/a sanity check only.
The Unfair Advantage (original post 1/1/2011): 123-131, -2327.05 dimes
All different sports. Then tried new system from 11/23/11-12/21/11: going appx 2-7 (even ish record between 10* & 20* plays with three ? NCAAM plays idk the result of tbh, post is kind of unclear - took the NHL L tho)
The Unfair Advantage (original post 11/3/2010) tried a bankroll approach with plays ranging from 50-200 dimes. Lol the salesy marketing - I didn’t know any better. Nov-Dec 2010: 54-53-3, -675 Dimes
Rules I’ve learned:
The UA:
- Never bet on mobile phones/remote. Too easy to let the gambler take control.
NBA:
- Stick to sides vs totals 9/10 times
- Only play ATS sides
- Only can buy hooks when bringing one single half point to 5, exactly
- Don’t chase NBA playoff series’s you’re off on. 0-2 in first two games, maybe punt on that series.
- NBA not as fun as NFL! Be disciplined and then hammer your playoff opps, trust what’s supposed to happen a little too. (But if a team isn’t as good as you though after 2 games, don’t chase em)
NFL:
- Never bet live
- 4 & above leg parlays never pay. I mean, let’s be honest - parlays should never pay… but NFL lines are so sharp that…
- Can do the funky stuff. That’s what The UA for the NFL at least is all about at times.. lines are so sharp!
- Fyi, the 2 leg parlays/tease things (fyi, if a push is a loss at the book w your tease, I always plan to adjust the half point - for me push’s reduce the legs of the parlay) have a MUCH better record. Not saying don’t do three’s, but their juice only lasts so long… LOVE your play though (relative to # of units)
- NFL lines - you know the drill. Plan to avoid 65%+ covers.com public sides and try not to pay over a -129 juice vig on a side. Evaluate each one for value also.. not just for the win. |
