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The Unfair Advantage NFL/NBA - Jeffrey here. Ready for another fun season, wish me luck (and more importantly, the ability to stay disciplined) and best of luck to you all as well (and good discipline)!

I’ve had a few different threads on here .. I own every pick, I’m just consolidating. Every season will have its own record… everything should be broken into chapters, imo, if you win - take the win and start fresh, don’t rest of your laurels. If you lose, don’t chase. Each season a chapter, each week a chapter, each play it’s own moment.

Here are all the other threads I have floating around; for context, I historically played mainly 2 unit plays (1 or 2), but then 3 became a regular thing from time to time and now, every once in a good while - I’ll shoot a 4 unit play.

The Unfair Advantage NFL 2021-22:
21/22 NFL Season: 18-11, +0.5 units
22/23 NFL Season: 13-15, -9.1 units

The Unfair Advantage NBA 2021-22:
21/22 NBA Season: 14-9, +10.4 units
22/23 NBA Season: 0-1, -1 unit (and it was a dumb ass +195 2 leg parlay that went 1-1)
2023 NBA Playoffs: 18-13, +9.4 units

The Unfair Advantage NFL & NBA, 2021 & Beyond: YTD: 8-20-1, -26 units
An absolute mess of 2021 NBA & NFL plays, including a ton of messy NFL futures. Quote from post: “Sorry all, this has just been straight gambling posted on here on this thread. When I return, I’ll do it right.”

The Unfair Advantage NBA & NFL 2020:
Mostly NBA plays, but some NFL playoffs, a splash of college in there too. Jan-Mar 6 2020: 42-29, +16 units. COVID NBA June-Aug stint: 8-13, -11.8 units. Sept/Oct NBA & NFL: 7-7, -4.2 units. Overall thread 57-49, Ending exactly even in units terms.

The Unfair Advantage Football:
Pretty much all NFL, an occasional rare NCAAF game or part of a tease.
16/17 NFL Season: 65-45-4, +29.8 units
18/19 NFL Season: 40-37-2, -6.4 units (18 NFL Season Sept-11/10/18: 29-18-2, +17.6 units. Finishing the NFL/NCAAF season through 2/3/19, it felt I was less in control - less YTD and more ping ping ping - play here, parlay there, tease there - went 11-19, -24 units.)
19/20 NFL Season (Sept ‘19 only): 6-11, -15.7 units

The Unfair Advantage NBA 2016-17:
16/17 NBA season: 88-80-1, +0.7 units
(Sept-1/10/17: YTD: 83-69-1, +25.2 units, went on losing streak - finished NBA Reg season (paused after Jan & one random play in Feb) with a 2-7, -20.3 units run. Playoffs: 3-4, -4.2 units)
18/19 NBA season: 33-29-1, -4.6 units

First post of my “The Unfair Advantage NBA 2016-17” Thread:
“My posted 2015-16 season and playoffs NBA plays: 160-164-6, -76.7 units
Last year, I posted a whole bunch of plays.. in fact, they're below in selections central. My below par record is right up there ^^. I also had a thread back from like 2011, holy crap I've been Unfair for years. (See what I did there?) most of the time it's unfair to the people reading these posts Bc I talk so much. Anyhoo, last year I did Plays from like 1-6 units with 90% being 6.. this year, I'll roll with the same format as my NFL thread currently going. 1, 2, or 3 unit plays. 60% or more will be 3 units, 30% or less 2 units, and an occasional 1 unit. I've always believed your strongest play shouldn't be that much stronger than your average play, but that's just me. Most righty handicapped locks only hit 66% of the time.”

The Unfair Advantage, Jeffrey’s Picks
15/16 NBA Season: My plays: 160-164-6, -76.7 (NBA playoffs only: 32-35, -16.3)
My 2016 NCAAM Plays: 1-0, +6 units.
“My Expert” Plays YTD: 53-45, -8.5 units (here was my post at the end: “I truly enjoyed following some of the best in the business, but moving forward, I'll be sticking to my own plays. I have a lot of respect for many of the handicappers (especially those whose plays I used) and especially the docsports.com family of handicappers. I am happy to offer my opinion on anyone out there, and if I don't know them – I will tell that as well. As you can see, winners are out there. It's just a matter of finding them and finding them at the right time (or sticking with them for some type of system). Even the best handicapper's best game is only appx 66% likely to win (if it's a -110 bet, of course) in my opinion. Keep that in mind, never chase, play with control, and good luck!”) As part of the thread I tried to pick the expert plays I wanted to bet. Realized just to roll with my own plays. Can use “good” handicappers for ideas/inspiration/a sanity check only.

The Unfair Advantage (original post 1/1/2011): 123-131, -2327.05 dimes
All different sports. Then tried new system from 11/23/11-12/21/11: going appx 2-7 (even ish record between 10* & 20* plays with three ? NCAAM plays idk the result of tbh, post is kind of unclear - took the NHL L tho)

The Unfair Advantage (original post 11/3/2010) tried a bankroll approach with plays ranging from 50-200 dimes. Lol the salesy marketing - I didn’t know any better. Nov-Dec 2010: 54-53-3, -675 Dimes

Rules I’ve learned:

The UA:
- Never bet on mobile phones/remote. Too easy to let the gambler take control.

NBA:
- Stick to sides vs totals 9/10 times
- Only play ATS sides
- Only can buy hooks when bringing one single half point to 5, exactly
- Don’t chase NBA playoff series’s you’re off on. 0-2 in first two games, maybe punt on that series.
- NBA not as fun as NFL! Be disciplined and then hammer your playoff opps, trust what’s supposed to happen a little too. (But if a team isn’t as good as you though after 2 games, don’t chase em)

NFL:
- Never bet live
- 4 & above leg parlays never pay. I mean, let’s be honest - parlays should never pay… but NFL lines are so sharp that…
- Can do the funky stuff. That’s what The UA for the NFL at least is all about at times.. lines are so sharp!
- Fyi, the 2 leg parlays/tease things (fyi, if a push is a loss at the book w your tease, I always plan to adjust the half point - for me push’s reduce the legs of the parlay) have a MUCH better record. Not saying don’t do three’s, but their juice only lasts so long… LOVE your play though (relative to # of units)
- NFL lines - you know the drill. Plan to avoid 65%+ covers.com public sides and try not to pay over a -129 juice vig on a side. Evaluate each one for value also.. not just for the win.

9/7, 9/10, & 9/11/23 (respectively) NFL

3 Play Parlay: KC +4, Balt -2, & Buf +6 (+101) for 4 units

As discussed, I will be sticking with my 1-3 unit plays, but every once in a blue moon… I will up the ante and go with four units. Week, one this year, I found a play that I really like. I like Kansas City to win in their Super Bowl home banner game, but +4 looks really good… Baltimore is my survival team this week and I really like them to roll… maybe even the lumber’s worth… and I like the Bills plus some points. The bills are a really good team and if you take a look at how close their losses were during the regular season last year, +6 against a team they are debatably better than is a pretty good thing. It’s tough for a quarterback to come in, and immediately change everything… If anyone can do it, it’s Aaron Rodgers, But I like the idea of the Bills getting almost a touchdown here. I do think the bills win, and even start 2-0.. but plus the points makes me feel much better. I played with a lot of different combinations of these three teams and I feel like this is of the best values. Baltimore -2.5, Kansas City +3, and bills +6 was +111, which, arguably could be even better value – but this is what I decided to roll with. It’s still plus money odds.

9/10 NFL

3 Play Parlay: Atl +4.5, Balt ML, & Wash -1 (+114) for 1 unit

Albeit with the lines manipulated, I have some plays this week that have a little bit more of a public skew. I actually don’t mind that too much for week one. I didn’t go with any enormously overwhelming public play. Although Washington kinda is. Last year in week 1, I had three awesome plays (or so I thought) that has sharp lines and were public fades and I went 0-3. Basically, this just tells me that no one knows what they’re doing or talking about in week one lol. That’s sad, I went with two plays that I really like. I like Atlanta, I don’t think Carolina is very good and think they would cover on their own – I love them at +4.5. I like Washington to win. I don’t think Arizona actually wants to win, and if Washington loses to Arizona and week one their season will be over quick. Then, candidly, Baltimore was my favorite of the three legs in my first parlay, so I wanted more exposure on that particular game than the Bills or Chiefs. That said, with my original parlay, if any of those legs lost, I would be able to look at the plate, objectively and say… What the heck* *pg version*, I did not see that coming. When I do these parlays, they have to be to the point of I believe each leg will happen four out of five times or more. Parlays are not profitable. Especially if you are going against the spread. But, if you manipulate lines, like I do, sometimes you have to create a parlay to even have an option of playing the particular bet.

FYI, I’m aware of Jones not playing and Kelce as questionable. Don’t love those things - but after a lot of thought - all systems go and I stand by the original play. The odds for the 4 unit play, if it were to be made now at my local casino, would be +114. The bet was placed and stands as is, of course, once it’s posted - it’s locked.

YTD: 2-0, +3.03 units*

Buffalo lost by 6 creating a push on that leg of the parlay and changing the payout, laying 4 units, to a 1.89 unit profit. In OT.. dang. But a push is not a loss, the manipulated lines went 4-0-1. Interesting tidbit, the games ATS went 2-3 with Baltimore & Atl covering. KC lost by 1 and Det easily could’ve kicked a FG at the end.. it’s interesting.. if I had gone to +8 with Bills, I would’ve prob stuck with +3 for KC. And that easily could’ve been 4, but they got a 1st at the very end in FG range. Wash was up 1 a lot late and got a late FG on a turnover. Balt should’ve prob won by 7, but rolled the second half to win by like 15. Atl 24-10.

9/17 NFL

3 Play Parlay: Buf -1, SF -1, & Dal -1 (+106) for 2 units
2 Play Parlay: Buf ML & NYG +3 (-141) for 1 unit

I didn’t give my why this week yet, but Bills are my survival team… I believe are still in the Super Bowl hunt (outsifr chance) and their season is on the line… early… it’s almost 100% must win. Giants… must win. And +3 helps. I don’t believe the Rams and $75m in dead cap space .. plus niners are pretty good.. and Dallas vs Zach Wilson.. I like Dallas (who was 7-1 last season at home) to get the victory.

9/17 NFL

2 Team Parlay: KC +3 & NYG +3 (-106) for 1 unit

YTD: 5-0, +7.15 units

FYI, I had a discussion about it quite in depth this week - three team parlays, regardless of how good they look, are not sustainable. Upsets will happen. Teases/parlays (with manipulated lines) will always be a part of The Unfair Advantage strategy, just bc NFL lines are SO damn sharp. Props to the oddsmakers, really. But in order to qualify for a three team parlay, it needs to be something that I firmly believe will happen nearly 9 out of 10 times. For instance, I thought the Giants were a sure thing – but I figured if they somehow got beat, a field goal as a cushion would be really nice… That being said, they never should’ve won that game and props to Daniel Jones and the G-Men on that comeback. Also… Niners were down a touchdown - those divisional games, especially on the road - that’s tricky. The point is that if you ever approach a strategy like this, you need to acknowledge that, even though they look amazing before the games start, they are still a 50-50 proposition at best. The goal is just that you did enough research and have enough belief that you have chosen the correct side of the 50-50 that will occur at least eight or nine out of 10 times. Don’t forget, using a similar strategy, I started really hot out of the gate last year and gave most of it back.. so remember - every play is just one play and three teasers.. you better be able to look at it, even after the games, and if ya lose - be like yes, I never saw that coming. If you’re like “well yeah, I mean that could happen reasonably..” it shouldn’t be part of a three teamer. One is hard enough to win. FYI, I don’t have pair games or manipulate lines in any other sport. And… The most important part… I got mad lucky. Fortunately, I went my way this time, it won’t always. Stay disciplined my friends.

9/21 & 9/24 NFL

3 Team Parlay: SF -3, KC -3, Dal -3 (-115) for 2 units
2 Team Parlay: SF -3 & Det +3 (-122) for 1 unit

I know, I know. I definitely still feel that three team plays is not a sustainable overall strategy, situation’s seem to keep coming up that really spark my interest. I hate the idea of laying three points with three different games… That is a very difficult bet to win… but… breaking it down piece by piece, I think San Francisco -3 in their home opener on a national Thurs game is the best value on the board this week, especially with Barkley out, I like Dallas a lot… Especially after Arizona, lost that heartbreaker, and then the one that actually gives me pause for concern is the defending Super Bowl champions at home against a team that is one maybe a handful of games in the last 15 years it feels like… if Kansas City was 2-0, I don’t think I’d be ok with this one.. but Kansas City has a great team and has a great defense this year and their office has been slow. Because of that, you know they are going to concentrate on this upcoming game at home. Detroit has a big division, rivalry game on Amazon prime, this upcoming Thursday, which concerns me a little, but Dan Campbell had the lions ready after a loss last year. Also, an interesting note… Atlanta won four of us six games last year by exactly 3 points. They won another game by 4.. they already won one by 1 this year. So getting that extra field goal is also really nice.

9/24 NFL

2 Team Parlay: Buf +3 & Jax -1 (-155) for 1 unit

YTD: 6-2, +4.3 units

NFL 10/1/23

3 Team Parlay: Phil -1, KC -3, & LAC +3 (+120) for 2 units
3 Team Parlay: Phil -1, KC -3, & Buf +6.5 (+121) for 1 unit

Especially after my rants and raves about three teamers, I almost wonder if just a Chiefs / Eagles tease would be better. I think both at -1 is like idk -160? -3 each is -121 confirmed. But adding the Bills and Chargers was probably unnecessary value wise if those two were my plays.

I’m looking at the slate this week and the UA rule is always never chase the public play - my heart wants Minnesota (they’re -4.5 & 72% public) and Jax (-3 & 71 public in London at 9:30.. although would the NFL give us one at 9:30am the first time to get ppl to watch more the rest of the AM games…)

May add something, and looking back - I’d look at laying lumber and finding the two best legs I prefer… not that I love the Raiders (vs the Chargers) or Miami laying a TD (although that one feels kinda scary and homer-y but Buff hasn’t lost by more than 4 in Reg season in like years.. other than OT which counts as a tie for all
Intents and purposes). I do like KC laying a small number in primetime in NYC and Philly bc they lost to Wash last year when they were undefeated. I like Phil bc it screams trap game but it already was set last year, Kelce is calling them out, I like betting on Kelces I suppose, and Hurts didn’t play that well - and he’s good.

YTD: 8-2, +6.26 units*

Both wins were watered down parlays (with KC winning by 3 and kneeling at the Jets 1 to end the game). They pay 1.3 & .66 units, respectively. Also noteworthy is both my rant games, the public backed Jags and Vikings both won and covered. In fact, public probably did ok yesterday - but KC and Philly were both public (I believe) and both only won by 3 as ~8 ish point chalks.

I escaped with two watered down wins with the three teamers, and most of my bets this year have been 1 or 2 units - but with this strategy, gotta look at the units themselves not just the record. I’m playing some heavy weight vigs (at least the individual legs) and three parlays now (at least) got watered down one leg (and ironically the third in both occasions).

NFL 10/8

2 Team Parlay: Mia -3 & Det -2.5 (-165) for 2 units

I’m seeing this play still available at -186. Heavy vig indeed, but I’d stand by this play. Both at -3 is -175, I’d actually go with that one bc it’s better value. ** Don’t forget I’m always trying to parlay these numbers to a push at key numbers, if your tease has a push as a loss, make sure to land on that hook. My pops played this and added the Bills +3.5 but it felt a little risky for me. I’d been ranting about three teamers being tough to consistently hit! lol

YTD: 9-2, +8.26 units

Partially a note to self.. FYI Bills did lose by 5. Should’ve gotten beat by double digits, but still had a shot to back door cover. Also, I had seriously considered adding Washington & Buffalo for 1 unit and a big multi time period parlay.. just to have action when I was watching.. both Wash and Buffalo lost outright. Both were ~6 point faves I’d have taken to +3. Washington got smoked. Remember, in order for a play to be part of a parlay, I have to absolutely love it. I need to be able to look at the game afterwards and say yes, I still loved it. For the record, I do still love the three team parlay. I did with the big chalks two weeks ago all down to -3… BUT… I do not love the structure of the play. Three team parlays are extremely hard to win, when you’re laying three points on all three teams also… It’s extremely, extremely hard to win.

NFL 10/15

2 Team Parlay: KC -2.5 & Det +4.5 (-141) for 1 unit
2 Team Parlay: KC -2.5 & SF +3.5 (-175) for 1 unit