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NBA 5/4/25

Cleveland Live ML -155 for 2 units

Looking at the shooting stats in the first half, particularly from 3 - Cavs really can win this if they shoot better than 25% from deep when Pacers are shooting 60% from 3 and have taken way more shots overall.

Two plays to hopefully get back on track. I think it’s tough to cover a big ish spread after you were beating a team by 50. It’s a new effort level you’re against - that’s why Cavs have a shot here now that they shook off the rust.. and Warriors in 7? Scroll to the last post on page 7, but I think Steph has a great game and we get at least one aging superstar into the next round in the West. If not, none really right? Go Dubs and Cavs tonight and good luck all!

NBA 5/5/25 & 5/6/25

Boston ML, Oklahoma City ML, & Cleveland ML (-113) for 5 units

I changed how this post’s paragraphs were aligned to have the interesting basketball analysis part first. Then I talk about why I executed the play the way I did, then I talk about last night, then I talk about my 2 remaining futures plays.

OK first… Why these three? Is there a chance that Denver wins this series if it goes to six or seven games… Honestly, probably not. But having them at +1400, I certainly hope so. That said, this Oklahoma City team will be very fresh. Don’t think rust will be a factor, in game one against Memphis. They absolutely cruised after a little break. This thunder team is actually just really really good. My thesis of fading them in the western conference may end up coming back to bite me. The Lakers didn’t even get a swing at them.. my hope was that I would have two chances to take them down with Nuggets and then Lakers. Denver has Sleepwalked once or twice this playoffs already, this is a spot where they may be caught doing it again. Second, Boston. Boston beat the next all four times they played this year by an average of 15 points. Frankly, I think they will be in a lot of control this whole series and probably win by a decent amount when they win, but did Jalen and the Knicks gain enough momentum to give Boston a run? Having them on the ML gives protection just in case Knicks go nuts and only lose by 3 instead of 15. For the record, no – medium level teams tee off on kind of bad teams those athletes knew that serious was their chance to shine. They couldn’t beat the Pistons by double digits, they won’t be able to match Boston’s fire power. And third, the Cavaliers at home? After losing game one? Yes. I think the Cavaliers will win and I believe Indiana will have a tough time replicating the shooting percentages they had in game one.

So if in my soul, I think all three teams could take care of business… Why didn’t I just play all three against the spread? First, I don’t like to lose. If you see my NFL betting history, I try my best to win every single play – almost to a fault at times… and second, I don’t love betting big spreads. That’s how I learned to lose a lot of money when I first started sports betting many years ago. Having my 9 point chalks win by 7, etc. Back door covers… There’s just too many moving pieces for me. While if I had to pick each game against the spread, I would go with all three favorites, I’m not sure all three will actually end up winning by double digits. This is a great test to my NBA theory and thinking… Should I have just kept it at the two that are happening tonight? That’s what the alternative would’ve been I believe.

Now why I executed the way I did… Bump it up. First 5 unit play of the year in the NBA! Now… how do we feel about a three team ML parlay..? Idk. In the NFL, I said it straight up.. need to find two teams and make it work. Three was ok, but two was much much better - even after adjusting for value imo. I was laying up to -200 at times to get two chalks under a FG and those key numbers were very important to use to our favor.. what does two teams do here? To have Boston and OKC tonight at -5 each would be -114. Ok.. not bad but not great. Really enough value there to tease? I don’t typically do NBA trades - not enough familiarity with the value. Those two at a moneyline is -195. Now.. to add the third team brings it to a modest and reasonable -113? I like Cleveland to win game two, so I think it’s worth it to no longer lay two to one and tack on that third team - even value wise. They’re going to be a 4 or 5 to 1 favorite on the ML. An interesting point… I also want to point out that my casino has Boston -400 on the money line, but if I were to manipulate the line down to -2.5, it’s also at a weight of -400. Because of this, there truly is more value, in my opinion, taking them on the moneyline. In football, I’ve come to terms with occasionally having to lay -1.5, which I don’t love, but only once did it come up last year as a potential hindrance – but my team ended up losing outright anyway, and their last gasp down six didn’t matter. For football, it’s all about getting under that field goal and using other key numbers. Basketball, I’m still getting the hang of it.

NBA 2024-25 YTD: 5-8-1, -5.62 units

No dice on Cavs in game 1.. hard to play after they were playing against half efforts by the end there against the Heat.. they made a run and took the lead after going down 12 in the 3rd. I don’t dislike the play.. saw them down 12, then popped on the TV and they took the lead in the 3rd. They just couldn’t keep it going and Pacers kept hitting daggers. Awesome individual efforts by Indiana who shot 19/36 from 3, my goodness.

The Warriors started strong and looked good even when Steph started shooting slow. Low scoring start overall too. 51-39 at half, 103-89 final. Buddy shield shot 9/11 from 3.

Pending:
Denver Nuggets to win title +1400 for 4 units
Boston Celtics to win title +175 for 4 units

I would consider hedging the Nuggets if they get by Oklahoma City or get late in the series and Boston I’m letting ride. My ideal championship matchup is Den/Bos, the call I made midseason before hooping on the Lakers bandwagon in a reference I made to “if I had to pick now” it would’ve been Lakers over Boston after they beat OKC.

NBA 5/6/25
Cleveland Cavaliers ML & Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-121) for 4 units

YTD: 5-9-1, -11.27 units

This play, to me, is the last stand with trying to implement my NFL type strategies into the NBA. While in the NFL those big favorites of like -7.5-9 feel like they would be very heavy on the ML compared to the NBA. This play with both at ML is -121. Both at -5 is +157.. both at -3 is an even bet +100.. doesn’t feel worth it at that point to tease or parlay at all. It *seems* that NBA is much more expensive to adjust lines at my casino compared to the weight the moneyline brings. Last shot - Cleveland is my for sure play tonight and I’d pick them at -9 also if I wasn’t trying this strategy out. I also like the Wolves.. I think they’re going to win that series. And.. since it’s a max of two legs for my tease/parlays, established from NFL betting - let’s see if NBA can give me a unique strategic approach… or if I’m yanking this strategy permanently for NBA lol.

Let’s run it back with Cleveland - same logic applies. Shooting was nonsense that Indiana threw out there. Is 9 uncomfortable? Yeah kinda. Maybe Indiana is actually better and will win this series against a not that playoff battle tested Cavs.. but I don’t think they’re going to win tonight. Cavs at home - that place will be absolutely electric. I have them winning by double digits - but having them against the ML is even nicer. And Minnesota earned a playoff home game.. things are shaping up for them. They’ve done well in game 1’s including last year.

As for last night - unbelievable. Definitely can’t do three. Not in any sport. Too many variables. Boston lost outright by 3 in OT after shooting historically bad - missing 45 3 point shots (15/60 from 3). As for leg two on the same night.. the Thunder were also upset by the Nuggets! 2 point game! Crazy. Not a good night to go chalk heavy. None of the options would’ve worked. Nuggets out rebounded them 72-53; Joker went for 42 and SGA 33.

FWIW.. just saw this. Last night was the first time in 25 years that two 9+ point favorites lost on the NBA playoffs in the same day. So hopefully that’s the exception and hopefully knocking my three leg parlay down to two like I do for NFL will be attainable. I’ll be mad if Cavs win by double digits and Minny loses outright tho lol - if I didn’t do this play, I would’ve just laid the lumber with the Cavs. Wish me luck and good luck to you as well!

YTD: 5-10-1, -16.11 units

Cavs were -7.5 when I made the play, but -5.5 by tip bc Garland, Mobley, & Hunter were out. I was betting the Cavs regardless of lineup, line, weather.. but I prob should’ve had a better read on their status. That said, Cavs blew a 20 point lead in the 3rd, 7 point lead with 1:06 left - refreshed espn and pure shock. Also, Indiana shooting 2 down 3 get the offensive board w 8 seconds left and Halliburton - who went nuts in game 1 also.. made them pay. Cavs were going down any way I bet em lol. Rough go of it.. that was a misread - wow Indiana, well done Tyrese.

Pending:
Denver Nuggets to win title +1400 for 4 units
Boston Celtics to win title +175 for 4 units

PS Ironically the Wolves lost too - by double digits. 4 home game 1 chalks in a row wow. Ice cold strategy.

have to agree !

Pops said I should prob start avoiding game 1’s when I go for chalks in NBA series’s. Those that roll that game 1 - there will prob be other spots to bet em. Reminds me of the chaos of week 1 NFL. DodgersMan agrees! Lol

Game 4 for the Nuggets may have been their chance. Going to be tough to beat this Thunder team in 2/3 without home court. I still have the futures plays rolling; Boston will give a little spare change to use for next NFL but that Nuggets win (or even them advancing so I can hedge) at +1400 could pay nicely and change this season’s narrative for sure.

NBA 5/16/25 & 5/17/25

Boston vs NY Over Live Total 198.5 (-130) for 1.5 units
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 for 1.5 units

I didn’t know I could do half a unit yet here we are. Good luck all! OKC wins by less than 8, I’ll be very bummed.

If you saw my play on bet the house, I said that I thought the Knicks would cover the 2 1/2 points, but I couldn’t bring myself to actually put any money on it. There is something fishy about the eastern conference and I think it’s very possible now that Jayson Tatum is out, the West will absolutely smash the east, regardless of who makes it.

As for the plays that I went with today, the shooting started off absolutely terrible in the Boston/New York game and I think there may be value if you can catch a decent number live. As for tomorrow, everybody and their cousin is now picking Denver… The oddsmakers absolutely think Oklahoma City will win by double digits.. through my history, I think the oddsmakers have been correct more times than not. In this case, I hope they are wrong because I still have the Denver to win the championship futures Batt at +1400 for four units. Yes, this is some kind of hedge. But at the value, I got Denver at earlier this season, this is exactly the moment. I hope they would be in.

NBA 5/20/25 & 5/21/25

Minnesota Timberwolves +8 (-112) for 2 units
Indiana Pacers +5 (-127) for 4 units

YTD: 7-12-1, -21.11 units*

*of this YTD record, I am 0-4, -15.4 units on Futures Bets for Championship winners (0-3) & series bets (0-1). I will be going back to short term bets where I’m 7-8-1 and if you take away the two or three team parlays I did (where I was 0-3) I am 7-5-1 ATS/Totals/Single game ML. Hmm. Ok, nothing funky in NBA for The UA, noted. (Again). Sticking with single plays in NBA, period.

Ok - so onto this week’s Game 1 plays.

Minnesota +8. I scaled this one back and it is only two units because I had cold feet after watching game seven and the Thunder punish the Nuggets. The logic behind taking both underdogs is similar… It’s going to be very hard to match the energy that just occurred in those arenas in the next game. Id rather catch some points and I even think both dogs *can* win their game 1. As for this one, the Nuggets were completely toast by this game seven. I hated to say it, but I was able to get a little bit of units back on Oklahoma City betting them game seven. That’s the thing about the futures bet.. i’m not sure why I say I hate to say it. I mean I do know - the bias those long-term bets have makes it difficult. Avoid them if you want any objectivity.

I was going to pick Minnesota in game one regardless of who came at them after the grueling series between Oklahoma City and Denver. While Denver was emaciated by the end, Oklahoma City still had to dig deep in the tank. And the way the hoop was 7 feet wide in the second half of game seven, it may tighten up a little bit against a really long and athletic Minnesota team. I am truly a believer that, in this series, catching some points from the underdogs will be a potentially good strategy. Oklahoma City has a similar home and road record as do the Timberwolves. It’s literally two days from now… Are the Thunder even done celebrating? I had the Lakers in the first round against Minnesota, but my goodness was I wrong. Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and that team – especially their role players – are excellent.

Speaking of being tough to match the energy of the previous game, I have no idea how the Knicks are going to be able to have the same energy after clobbering Boston in game six and then pouring it on as they continued. That was a special night for New York. That team can absolutely still find a way to beat Indiana and go to the NBA finals, as I mentioned the other day, I think the Eastern conference is relatively fraudulent and the west will absolutely clobber the east.

I did call the Knicks in six on Bet the House but didn’t have the guts to bet it. I wonder if my Boston future influenced me.. I know it did. Glad to be moving on from those… First, I bet Indiana at +5 when my casino had it at +4, but the vig was under -110. So I’m going to give myself a pass there and consider it still a one full hook purchase.. with a heavy vig standard line. You know I like that +5 dog. I will also establish that -129 is as heavy as I can go on making a hook purchase to get to +/-5.

So, I have the Pacers. I have an aggressive, athletic, young, talented and underrated team. They got swept by Boston last year in the eastern conference finals, but that was last year. It’s weird how the matchup merry-go-round works, but the Knicks were still awful against winning teams in the eastern conference during the regular season this year. They are still the same team that barely got by Detroit. I’m not ready to say that the Detroit Pistons are actually any good. Now, did they beat who I consider to be a really good Celtics team? Yes, they did – but games one and two were historically bad shooting nights for them, and they were not ready for the physicality that these playoffs have been allowed to play at. If Boston hits another bucket or two, it’s two games a piece after four and the butterfly effect may change everything. The Knicks were absolutely going to win game four in this version of the universe though, even before Tatum got injured.

I’m just not ready to say that the Knicks are that good… but is Indiana that good? I’m not sure they are either, but I’m happy to grab the five points on the team that I believe can easily win game one. I also think Tyrese seems to be ready for the moment – they absolutely walked Cleveland and they beat a really good Giannis and Milwaukee. The rest of the team wasn’t very good, but Giannis was. Vegas has Indiana +125 only and NY at -152 I’m seeing. Like my goodness, that tells me they think it’s a coin flip and there’s a NY favorite bias. OKC at -345 worries me a bit having Minny game 1.. but I may be coming back to OKC in game 2, depending on how game 1 goes. Maybe the Knicks also, once again depending on how game 1 goes.

NBA 5/22/25

Minnesota T-Wolves +7.5 for 4 units

YTD: 8-13-1, -19.35 units

Loved that Indiana win last night! Didn’t love overtime, but they still got it done.

As for Minny.. OKC shot 52.4% from 3 and 50% from the field.. Minny shot 29.4% from 3 and an abysmal 34.9% from the field. I have Minny even w Denver, who was pretty darn even with OKC. I don’t think they get stomped out twice. Sometimes the analysis is just that simple. Watching that game, I thought they could win in that first half.. the +8 was a nice cushion.

PS I did a deep dive. Currently, I’m 8-6-1 in single game ATS/ML/totals. Got clobbered (wow, literally 0-7) on parlays (0-3), series bets (0-1), and futures (0-3) but those did have longer odds. Gotta stick to ATS and single game stuff *for sure* in NBA. Too many variables especially with the three ball. It’s a different game. The ML parlay strategy doesn’t work in a deep league. Professional sports will only get deeper in my lifetime, I truly believe.

Single game ATS/ML/totals: 8-7-1, +3.14 units
Parlays: 0-3, -11.49 units
Series bets: 0-1, -4.4 units
Futures: 0-3, -11 units

YTD: 8-14-1, -23.75 units

Gotta stick to ATS and single game stuff *for sure* in NBA. Too many variables especially with the three ball. It’s a different game. The ML parlay strategy doesn’t work in a deep league and this years NBA is deep. Professional sports and basketball will only get deeper in my lifetime also, I truly believe. The days of the same guy in the ECF 10 years in a row, I believe, are over.

NBA 6/8/25

Oklahoma City -11 for 2 units
Oklahoma City to win series -1.5 games (+100) for 4 units

Oklahoma City was up by 15 in the fourth quarter of game one. I have to say that before forgetting it or veering too far off the beaten path at all. Thunder are a team that tries its best to deliver a knockout punch, they tried to game one and they couldn’t quite do it – they win by double digits a lot though, and I learned this the hard way when I was on Minnesota plus the points twice… So there was no epiphany in game one, there was just a few mistakes and stuff that I don’t think will be replicated.

The three-point shooting percentage was in favor for Indiana, 46.2% to 36.7%, but the Pacers also got 21 points more than the Thunder did using the three ball. Second chances on the glass, Thunder doesn’t get bodied like that at home usually. And I mean finals lights? Nah, Thunder came ready in game 7’s. Overall, no individual player box score was too funky for Indiana, but there was literally nobody who had a bad or even under average game really. With how ferocious the thunder defense is, I think that’s hard to replicate.

The steals were incredibly one-sided. 15 to 1 OKC, but some numbers that do jump out at me that favor Indiana are the assist numbers 24-13 and the rebound numbers 56-39. The rebound numbers would be a bigger deal, but I know certain big guys weren’t playing for Oklahoma City. A lot of people are questioning some coaching personnel decisions, so you know this game will be a no nonsense one.

All of that aside, I have always been a huge advocate that a NBA favorite of 10.5 to 11 points tells me that Vegas thinks they are going to smoke their opponent. When they are only a 9.5 point favorite, that tells me to keep the antenna up. In game one, the thunder were a 9.5 point favorite. I still thought they would win the game for sure. That and my referenced common bedding site has 68% of the public on the Pacers plus the points. With the line growing, that gives me even more confidence in the thunder for game two. Also… The Pacers only had one close loss this playoff, otherwise it was by double digits or more. I expect them to lose Sunday.
….

As for the series bet… I know. I know. I get it… I’m literally doing the thing, I’m walking right into the buzzsaw.. but why is this different? I believe it could be different because we are already in game two of the series. Would this skew my handicapping ability for the rest of the series? Probably yes. I have to be cognizant of that. So why am I making the play? It’s because in bet the house before game one, my suggested play was thunder to win the series -2.5 games, that was laying -132 to even make that play… now, the Pacers one by one. One was their largest lead of the whole game. I still truly believe the East is significantly weaker than the West in the NBA this year and Boston was really the only hope. Indiana has really impressed me… They really have, but this thunder team beat LeBron, Minnesota, who is excellent, the Nuggets – who had the best player in the world and some other great All-Stars… The run they had to make to get here is excellent. And in my soul, I don’t truly believe anyone in the East is that good this year anymore… Now you’re telling me that I get a game six cushion and a 4-2 series finish as a win because of a potentially fluky game one and I get it at +100, not -132? I think this is almost an over correction from my Sportsbook.

Transparently, when game six rolls around, it’s very possible The thunder are up 3 to 2, but I would pick the thunder to win game six right now. I would probably have them at -4 or five and if I really wanted, could take Indiana on the Moneyline that night if I no longer like the play. So I want to be clear, I’m not making this play with the intention of hedging, I’m just saying that I will have it potentially as an option. When I make bats with the intention of hedging, they usually aren’t that successful – which has been clear so far this year.

FYI - there’s no way no way no way I would have bet Pacers ML plus one.. just saying, my theory on not touching game 1 chalks (for me at least) may be wise. Get more info and pounce. Let’s see if it works with this series,

NBA 6/11/25

Oklahoma City -5 (-118) for 4 units

This game reminds me a lot of game three in the series against Denver. You may look at that and say, didn’t Denver win that game? Yes they did in terms of the final score. If you analyze that game, it took overtime for Denver to win first of all, but the box score is lopsided. The thunder couldn’t shoot, Denver shot great. They play that same game five times, the thunder win at least three of them (maybe four) in my opinion. That’s the exact same logic I’m using here.

As for this series, specifically, are we sure Tyrese Halliburton is a full-blown superstar? Are we sure he is even on the same tier as SGA, let alone nearly as good? Now let’s take a look at the rest of the players on the team and the depth, maybe I’ll give the edge to Ric Carlisle for coaching - but I’m giving everything else to OKC. Game 1 - not an unsurprising upset (I mean kind of surprising, but not like gasp omg woah). Indiana shot well and the thunder probably got tight down the stretch of game one of the finals. In game too, SGA slowed it down and it felt like their defensive effort was even better. Also, the coin flips were closer to 50-50.

I was planning to try to catch a -5 sometime in the next 24 hours, but -118 is fine I guess at my casino currently.

So I get the better team -5 points which isn’t entirely unreasonable in a game I think they will win. Also, do you guys see that Oklahoma City -1.5 games in the series is now a -155 vig bet? SO much heavier than the +100 after game 1. That was an overcorrection for sure. Game two was more in line with what I expected this series. I expect the thunder to win game three because every time they are pushed into a corner at all, they bring a great effort, and I don’t see either of these teams being that much better at home or on the road – at least in the playoffs. I will say Indiana did have a skew in the regular season between home and away. So they are a good home team, but they have not had their backs against the wall at all this postseason. This is the first time they are going to really be tested. They went up 2-0 in all three eastern conference playoff series. I will have to dig in further for game four, because that may be one of the tougher against the spread calls to make this series. I absolutely expect thunder to win at least one of these two games in Indiana. Let’s say they win tonight by double digits… Then what will happen in game four? Do the thunder let up a little bit and it’s a close game one way or the other or does Indiana fold like an accordion? They haven’t been tested or down in a series yet, so I’m curious to see what would happen in that case.

Anyway - Wednesday, I like the Thunder to go up 2-1 in the series and win by 7-12 points but it never get closer than 7 in the final 10 minutes. Thunder prove their better here and just lean on them; it won’t get too close for comfort. And fyi if it does go Thunder by 10/ Pacers by 2, Thunder would win game 5 by 21 at home to go up 3-2 imo.

OKC won game two at home after the 1 point L by 16 and we’re up 29 throughout & in control. In game 3, I did not expect role player Manchurin to go 9/12, Indiana to shoot over 51%, or OKC to have 17 turnovers and look silly sloppy w turnovers like the Jalen/Caruso back to back turnovers in the 4th quarter.

Pending: Oklahoma City to win series -1.5 games (+100) for 4 units

Single game ATS/ML/totals: 9-8-1, +0.42 units
Parlays: 0-3, -11.49 units
Series bets: 0-1, -4.4 units
Futures: 0-3, -11 units

YTD: 9-15-1, -26.47 units

NBA 6/13/25

Oklahoma City Thunda -5 (-127) for 3 units

Idk, manipulating the spread was under my previously decided -129. I still think Thunder win this series.. 50/50 whether it’s in 6 or 7.

With Pacers winning game 3, it does throw off the every other thought process. If Thunder win tonight by double digits or near it, as I expect, I’m unsure who would cover the rest of the way. Great series though, I certainly did not expect two midwestern markets to be in the finals (obviously). This truly speaks to the depth of sports athletes, nowadays, more and more kids 20+ years ago or getting into sports and have the ability to do so. Also, with international athletes joining, sports are going to be deeper than in years past. I don’t think you’ll see dominance like LeBron had For a long time. When you look at the NFL and NBA lately, there’s far more parity than ten years ago, in my opinion.