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Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
#768156 02/07/24 11:03 PM
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Underdogs as a whole have performed well in the Super Bowl as well, covering in three straight games (winning two outright) and posting a 9-7 W-L and 11-5 ATS record since 2007.

And then there's the piece de resistance: Andy Reid is elite coming off a bye. He's 23-15 ATS in his career with at least 12 days to prepare for a game and 31-7 outright in those games. The Reid-Mahomes duo is 11-2 straight up with an extra week off (and yes, they do have an above average record overall, but this is a better win pct than they have on regular rest).

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768157 02/07/24 11:03 PM
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With two-thirds of American adults living in jurisdictions with legal sports betting, more than $20 billion is expected to be at stake when the Super Bowl kicks off in Las Vegas for the first time.

Approximately 67.8 million adults -- 26% of the adult population of the United States -- could combine to bet $23.1 billion on Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ersand Kansas City Chiefs, according to survey results released Tuesday by the American Gaming Association (AGA). Both figures -- the number of bettors and the amount wagered -- are up significantly from last year's survey.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768158 02/07/24 11:04 PM
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No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has been better as an underdog than Mahomes. His 10-1-1 ATS record in those games is the best mark of any qualified passer in that span. Eleven of those games came on the road, with his near-perfect 10-0-1 away cover rate also ranking as the best in the Super Bowl era.

And did I mention that he has won 75% of those games outright?

Speaking of winning, Mahomes has won each of his past six postseason starts, one shy of tying four Hall of Famers (John Elway, Troy Aikman, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw) for the second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Only Tom Brady's 10-game streak from 2001-05 surpassed that mark.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768159 02/07/24 11:04 PM
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Super Bowl LVIII Betting Trends

Kansas City is 10-1-1 ATS as underdog with Patrick Mahomes (9-3 SU).

Kansas City is 10-0-1 ATS as road/neutral underdog with Patrick Mahomes (9-2 SU).

Kansas City has covered seven straight meetings vs SF (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS under Andy Reid).

Kansas City has covered five straight games entering Super Bowl.

Kansas City is: 3-0 ATS this postseason (won last two games as underdogs).

Kansas City has covered five straight playoff games (longest streak since 2012-15 Ravens - 7 straight).

Kansas City is 62-50-1 ATS in Patrick Mahomes starts (12-5 ATS in playoffs).

Kansas City is 111-88-2 ATS under Andy Reid (13-8-1 ATS in playoffs).

AFC teams are 7-2 ATS in past nine Super Bowls

San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games vs teams with winning records.

San Francisco is 4-0 ATS this season when favored by less than four points.

San Francisco is 0-3 ATS last 3 games.

San Francisco is the only team to be favored in every game this season.

San Francisco is the second team to reach SB without covering playoff game (2007 Patriots).

San Francisco is 7-4 ATS in playoff games under Kyle Shanahan (0-2 ATS this year).

San Francisco is 15-10-1 ATS in Brock Purdy starts (2-3 ATS in playoffs).

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768160 02/07/24 11:04 PM
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Top rushing and receiving betting nuggets

Christian McCaffrey has gone over his rushing yards prop in nine of his last 10 games and 13 of 18 games this season. His rushing yards prop is 90.5, the highest number McCaffrey has had all season.

Brandon Aiyuk's receiving yards prop of 62.5 is his lowest since Week 6. It's the fifth-highest receiving yards prop against the 49ers this season. His prop was a season-high 76.5 yards last week (had 68 yards). He has gone under his receptions and receiving yards props in both playoff games.

Travis Kelce has gone under his receptions prop in 10 of his last 12 games. However, he has gone over in two of three playoff games. His prop is back to 6.5 after it was 5.5 in the previous five games.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over his rushing prop in four straight games and seven of his last nine. His prop of 67.5 yards is the second-highest prop against the Chiefs this season (Aaron Jones: 69.5 in Divisional Round, went over).

Rashee Rice has gone over his receptions prop in 13 of 19 games, the highest percentage in the NFL (no prop posted in Week 1). However, he has gone under his prop in three of his last five games. 6.5 receptions ties his highest prop this season

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768161 02/07/24 11:05 PM
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How many Super Bowl winners have worn white?

If you think jersey trends are meaningful, you should be inclined to put your money on San Francisco to win its first Super Bowl in 29 years. A San Francisco win would make white jerseys victorious in 17 of the last 20 Super Bowls — an incredible statistical anomaly.

The white jersey domination also extends past the money line. Teams wearing white in Super Bowls are 13-6 against the spread over the past 19 games

Through 57 editions of the Super Bowl, the team that wore white jerseys lifted the Lombardi Trophy a resounding 37 times.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768163 02/07/24 11:05 PM
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Top QB prop betting nuggets

1. Mahomes has gone under his passing yards prop in 13 of 19 games this season.

2. Mahomes has gone under 1.5 passing touchdowns in six of his last eight starts, all at plus money. The 49ers have held 12 of 19 opposing quarterbacks under 1.5 passing touchdowns.

3. Purdy has gone under his passing yards prop in each of his last five games. He had gone over the number in nine of his first 13 starts.

4. Purdy's rushing prop is 12.5 after never being higher than 8.5 all season. He rushed for 14 yards against the Packers (over 6.5) and 48 yards against the Lions (over 7.5).

5. Out of 19 starting quarterbacks to have posted passing yards props against the Chiefs, only four went over the number.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768165 02/07/24 11:06 PM
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Betting on the QBs

• Bettors are expecting a big game from Patrick Mahomes. The over on Mahomes' passing touchdowns (1.5 -160o) and rushing yards (26.5 -120u) have each attracted extremely lopsided early action at BetMGM: 99% of the money is on the over on passing TDs and 97% of the money is on the over on his rushing yards.

• The most-lopsided player prop on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy as of Tuesday at BetMGM was on his interceptions: 99% of the money wagered is on Purdy to throw over 0.5 interceptions in the Super Bowl

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768166 02/07/24 11:06 PM
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Interest in underdog Orange

"Purple" has separated itself as the clear-but favorite to be the color of Gatorade dumping on the winning coach, but underdog "Orange" was attracting from bettors. Orange had attracted 33% of the money wagered on the prop as of Monday at BetMGM, more than Purple, Blue and Clear/Water combined. You can wager on there not being a Gatorade Bath at 20-1.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768168 02/07/24 11:07 PM
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The big Super Bowl bets

$1 million: The first of what's expected to be several million-dollar Super Bowl bets was reported Jan. 30 by Caesars Sportsbook. The bet: $1 million on the 49ers money line (-120).

$600,000: A DraftKings bettor grabbed the 49ers moneyline at -120 with a $600,000 bet that will net $500,000 with a San Francisco victory.

$315,000: One DraftKings bettor staked $315,000 on the 49ers spread at -2 (-105), which will pay out $300,000 in winnings if the Niners cover.

$260,000: A bettor at FanDuel placed a $260,000 wager on the 49ers moneyline at -130, which would net $200,000 if San Francisco wins.

$120,000: One bettor at South Point put in wagers for 60 different props across the board at $2,000 each for a total of $120,000, per Vaccaro

$105,000: Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of the South Point casino reported taking a $105,000 bet on the 49ers -1 on Jan. 29.

$105,000: One bettor at BetMGM put down $140 on Kyle Juszczyk to win Super Bowl MVP at 750-1 odds. The wager would net $105,000 if Juszczyk claims the award.

$100,000: Caesars reported taking a $100,000 on the coin toss to land tails from a Michigan bettor on Jan. 30. A hundred K on the coin toss? What the flip!?

Side note: The most popular prop bet at DraftKings as of Feb. 2 was... tails. The second-most popular: heads.

$25,000 to win $1 million: A bettor with DraftKings reportedly put $25,000 on Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco to be named Super Bowl MVP. At 40-1, the bet would pay $1 million.

$15,000 to win $975,000: A bettor with DraftKings dropped $15,000 on Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice to be MVP. At 65-1, the bet would win $975,000

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768169 02/07/24 11:07 PM
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TD Favorite

• 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is around -225 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, the shortest odds of any player, but that's actually longer than he's been in each of his previous six games. McCaffrey had been an odds-on favorite of at least -300 to score touchdowns in previous six games. He has scored a TD in 15 of his last 18 games

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768170 02/07/24 11:07 PM
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Champs as public dogs

A release from sportsbook BetRivers on Monday leads off with "The betting public has spoken, and it is saying "Chiefs" loud and clear. The sportsbook reported 73% of the bets and 76% of the point spread money that had been placed entering Monday morning was on Kansas City.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768174 02/07/24 11:15 PM
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SUPER BOWL LVIII SCORE AND MVP PREDICTIONS

FEMI ABEBEFE
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
MVP: Travis Kelce

GILL ALEXANDER
49ers 34, Chiefs 23
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

JOSH APPELBAUM
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

MATT BROWN
Chiefs 24, 49ers 21
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

STEVE BUCHANAN
49ers 27, Chiefs 17
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

STORMY BUONANTONY
49ers 27, Chiefs 24
MVP: Brock Purdy

ADAM BURKE
Chiefs 24, 49ers 23
MVP: Travis Kelce

KELLEY BYDLON
Chiefs 24, 49ers 17
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

ZACHARY COHEN
Chiefs 23, 49ers 20

JULIAN EDLOW
Chiefs 23, 49ers 21
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

SEAN GREEN
Chiefs 28, 49ers 17
MVP: Travis Kelce

PAULY HOWARD
Chiefs 23, 49ers 21
MVP: Isiah Pacheco

STEPHANIE KAMERSCHAK
49ers 27, Chiefs 20
MVP: Brock Purdy

RYAN KRAMER
49ers 31, Chiefs 23
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

MICHAEL LOMBARDI
49ers 27, Chiefs 23
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

EMERSON LOTZIA
Chiefs 31, 49ers 20
MVP: Rashee Rice

STEVE MAKINEN
Chiefs 23, 49ers 21
MVP: Isiah Pacheco

PATRICK MEAGHER
Chiefs 24, 49ers 17
IMVP Isiah Pacheco

MITCH MOSS
49ers 30, Chiefs 24
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

TIM MURRAY
49ers 24, Chiefs 20
MVP: Brock Purdy

MIKE PALM
Chiefs 23, 49ers 20
MVP: Travis Kelce

MIKE PRITCHARD
Chiefs 24, 49ers 21
MVP: Travis Kelce

WES REYNOLDS
49ers 27, Chiefs 20
MVP: Brock Purdy

DAVE ROSS
49ers 29, Chiefs 21
MVP: Brock Purdy

AMAL SHAH
Chiefs 27, 49ers 17
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

TYLER SHOEMAKER
49ers 24, Chiefs 20
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

JARED SMITH
Chiefs 29, 49ers 27
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

MIKE SOMICH
Chiefs 20, 49ers 17
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

STUGOTZ
Chiefs 42, 49ers 14
MVP: Isiah Pacheco

DUSTIN SWEDELSON
49ers 24, Chiefs 20
MVP: Christian McCaffrey

ROSS TUCKER
Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

DAVE TULEY
Chiefs 23, 49ers 20
MVP: Isiah Pacheco

JONATHAN VON TOBEL
49ers 21, Chiefs 14
MVP: Brock Purdy

BEN WILSON
49ers 26, Chiefs 23
MVP: Debo Samuel

MATT YOUMANS
Chiefs 27, 49ers 24
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768266 02/08/24 02:46 PM
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How much are commercials?

About $7 million for a 30-second spot. That breaks down to $233,333.33 per second. Ads for the game didn’t hit a million bucks until 1995. In 1967, they cost $37,500.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768267 02/08/24 02:48 PM
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Who will sing “America the Beautiful?” Post Malone. He might be the first singer to have more tattoos than half the players.

What about the National Anthem? Reba McEntire.

Who will sing “Lift Every Voice and Sing?” Andra Day.

Who is the halftime performer? Usher

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768268 02/08/24 02:49 PM
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How many states have hosted the Super Bowl?

It’s the first Super Bowl to be played in Nevada, which is the 11th state to host the game.

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768269 02/08/24 02:50 PM
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Tell me the most trivial thing you can about the game:

Brock Purdy’s kid brother – also a quarterback - is named Chubba. He is at his third college – the University of Nevada. His nickname comes from the fact that he reportedly weighed 32 pounds before he turned 1. Brock is 6 feet, 1 inch, and 220 pounds. Chubba is 6-2, 210

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768270 02/08/24 02:51 PM
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How has the coin toss turned out?

The pregame toss has landed on tails 30 times and heads 27. Super Bowl winners have won the toss 26 of 57 times. The longest streak remains heads for five consecutive years, 2009 to 2013. Last year the Chiefs won the toss (tails) and the game. Yes, you can bet on it. Also, see question No. 57

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768271 02/08/24 02:52 PM
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Don’t slam me with stats, but compare the teams:

Kansas City scored 371 points and allowed 294. San Francisco scored 491 and let up 298. Only Miami and Dallas scored more points this season than San Francisco. The game is being played on grass. The Chiefs went 7-6 on grass fields this season while the 49ers’ record was 10-4

Re: Super Bowl Sunday Tidbits
wayne1218 #768272 02/08/24 02:53 PM
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What is the bonus for players?

Winning-team players take home $164,000 while the “losers” get $89,000 each.

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