Although I'll wait until a few days before the start of the season to make this wager, it is one that I've had circled this year. Anytime I play a totals future, I tend to like to play the unders for no other reason than the potential for injuries. In analyzing this wager, I'm looking at the following:

-Strength of schedule. The Lions rank in the top third in regards to the toughest schedule. Their division is vastly improved this year (in particular Green Bay who came on strong at the end of last year, and the Bears will be interesting with all their additions). Outside of their division, they have road games with the Texans and the Niners. Other interesting games include their opening game against the Rams and a road game against the Cowboys.

-Hype. Often times when teams are up and coming the previous year, the enthusiasm to repeat is high and lines tend to get a bit inflated. Everything fell into place last year for this team and I suspect there will be some bumps in the road this year.

-Injuries. This team remained relatively healthy throughout most of last year. Will that repeat itself? Time will tell.

-Dan Campbell and his stupidity with analytics. As much as people want to give this coach credit for being a big rah-rah guy and getting the team to rally around him. He single-handedly cost his team a chance at the Superbowl last year. Had he not been so idiotic during the Cowboys game in going for it on 4th down after being backed up from the 2 to the 7, the Lions could have hosted the NFC championship game. It was one of the dumbest calls of any coach for the year. Going for a two-point conversion from the two has validity. Stupidly insisting on going for it from the 7 was moronic. Then in the NFC championship game, he once again decides to go for it on a critical 4th down and gives the Niners the ball near midfield. That call pretty much ended any chance they had to win that game. And I can't help but laugh at anyone that defends this guy. I think Dan Campbell will cost them at least 1 if not 2 games this year with his bonehead risk taking and that will be enough to keep this total under the high 10 1/2 number. This stuff looks great when it works, I think he will wear out his welcome eventually after having a few of these fail.

That's the story and I'm sticking to it.

Take the Lions under 10 1/2 wins (you should be able to get +115 or +120). .