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Saturday
5* Tulsa +18.5 vs Oklahoma st

Man…I lost count of the number of times Arkansas had Okla st on the ropes last week and let them back in it. It’s hard to out yard and opponent by 300 yds and lose, but I mean hey Arkansas is Arkansas. You know Mike had a big sigh of relief and a few cold ones after being gifted that win. It’s human nature to relax after a tough matchup. This week they travel on the road to Tulsa for a sleepy 11am kick as 3 score favorite. Historically Gundy teams over preform as a dog, and under perform as a favorite. In addition, it’s important to note who Okla st plays next week…they host big -2 favorite Utah. This is a classic look ahead spot on the road as a big favorite. The clowboys will want to just get out of town with a win, and quite frankly they are not good enough to be favored 18.5 on the road against anybody. Give me the golden hurricane and the points.

3* LSU -6.5 @ South Carolina

Am I sold on Brain Kelly and his fit at LSU…not really. But I do believe in trends, situations and the volatility of emotions dealing with 18 year old kids. This is a very interesting matchup on paper…strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness. The Gamecocks lead the nation in pass rush statistics, but LSU has a pair of NFL caliber tackles. On the flip side the Lsu defense has improved schematically, but their secondary is as useful as holes in the bottom of a boat. Unfortunately for the gamecocks I don’t think they have the weapons on the outside to take advantage. Especially with a freshman qb. Seems like everyone for got that South Carolina should have lost to ODU in week one. After routing Kentucky last week, now the eyes of the college football world will turn to Columbia for game day. Everybody’s feeling good and Beamer’s seat is not as hot. 3 weeks ago this line would have been 14 points…and now it’s 6.5? Not so fast my friend…I think Kelly finds a way to pull away in this one. If not for the rain forecast I might have made this a 4 unit selection. Give me the tigers and lay it.

4* ND -9.5 @ Purdue

Who saw that coming last week? Losing to a directional school as a 28 point favorite at home? Hind sight is 20/20, but Freeman has a track record of letting his team get complacent after a big win. Chalk it up as growing pains for the young coach. One thing I’m certain of is that the Irish will be focus and angry heading into this road game at Purdue. You know they are itching to redeem themselves after being the laughing stock of college football the last week. Purdue is beat up on defense, and average at best on offense. The Irish defense has lived up to the hype this year, and defense travels. Look for ND to play bully ball and run this one up. I’m also on Purdue team total under for the game if you can fit it at your book. Lay it with the Irish in a 31-10 type game.

3* Fau -5 vs FIU

One of the underrated rivalries in the state of Florida! The Owls look to win their first game of the year hosting the panthers. FAU has taken its lumps this year. They opened up on the road and lost a physical game vs Michigan st 16-10. Last week their bubble burst in a 3 touchdown in a let down loss at home vs Army. I think this team is battle tested and will take those lessons from the first two weeks and bounce back. The drop in quality of completion will help the owls too. No need to be motivated vs a rival. On the flip side FIU is feeling high and mighty after blowing out a terrible central Michigan team. In week one they got blown out by a bad Indiana team on the road. I’m not a believer…Give me the owls at home and lay the points.

NCAAF 6-9 (-6.7 units)

Still can’t get a lot of traction, but we are one good week away from getting back in the game.

5* Army -6.5

Wanted to go ahead and post this one before the line moves up more. Rice doesn’t have any playmakers at the skill position. They didn’t an ore last week until the final 2 minutes of the game. Army has looked solid this getting out to a 2-0 start. Their run game has been strong, and their defense has posted two second half shutouts. I worry about their depth as the season wears on, but coming off a bye and being at home puts them in the driver seat in this matchup. Lay it up to -7

More selections

4* Tenn @ Oklahoma under 57

Lots of angles to this game. Josh Heupel returns for Oklahomas first Sec conference game. Tennessee has looked unstoppable so far…granted they have played two inferior opponents and a disappointing NC st. Oklahoma is beat up and has not gotten any traction this season. From a public perception Tennessee should crush Oklahoma. I’m not convinced…You have to go back to 1996 the last time the Sooners were a Td underdog at home. There are two counterpoints that stick out to me. Venables is a formidable defensive mind, and there’s no doubt he will throw the sink at this Tennessee offense. It’s obvious Oklahomas defense is its strength, and they have dudes on the dline. In addition, this is Tenn Qb Nico’s first Sec road start. I think the public is grossly undervaluing that, and he is prone to turnovers. That’s the recipe for the Sooners…Slow paced game, get a couple of turnovers, and keep this Tenn offense in check. The Sooner offense is beat up and has looked bad at times. Tenn defense has looked good so far. I see this either as a low scoring tight game, or maybe Tennessee is that team and wins but multiple scores. Either way, I do not see this game going over the total of 57. Even if Tenn gets to 30, I have a hard time seeming the Sooners scoring more than 21 points. Give me under 57.

4* LSU -21 vs UCLA

This line has continued to come down and now I’m jumping on it. LSU got the spark they needed after winning in Columbia last week. Over the last few years Brian Kelly gets his team rolling by game four. UCLA has looked bad this year, getting boat races by Indiana and almost losing at home to Hawaii. Reports this week out of La said that ucla hast multiple injuries on the d line. In addition, players were not practicing hard. Not a good sign two games in. This program is in dire straights after chip kelly bolted to the Buckeyes. With temperatures in the high 80s in Baton Rouge ( probably 100 degrees on field with humidity), I expect the bruins to fade…hard. Give me the tigers -21 in a route.

3* FAU +1.5 @ UConn

The owls covered last week vs FIU. UConn has not been bad under Jim Mora, but history they have struggled against AAC opponents. In addition, Florida Atlantic is 17-1 as a dog in this situation. I’m riding with the owls again!

Adding

3* Arkansas +3 @ Auburn buying half

I expect defense to be optional in this game. Last week Auburn bounced back against broncos’ New Mexico. They broke in a new young QB. Arkansas comes into this one after getting blown out last year by the tigers. They are also getting healthy returning two starters. In this situation as a short road dog, the Pitt boss has been great going 7-1 ats. Give me the hogs +3

Progress made this weekend. We cashed our 5* with ease and split on the 4* and 3* selections. +4.3 units

NCAAF 9-11 (-2.4 units)

5* UGA ML -115 @ Bama

The back story is well known. Kirby is 1-5 vs Bama as Georgias head coach. Last year, Bama spoiled UGAs chance at a 3 peat in the SEC title. After falling to Michigan in the playoffs, Nick Saban retired. First year coach DeBoer has the tide 3-0 off a route of Wisconsin. The Dawgs come in after escaping Kentucky on the road two weeks ago. The trendy pick in this one feels like Bama to me. All the cappers like Bama…I imagine this is a popular underdog spot with the public…who wouldn’t take Bama and the points at home?? In fact, this line has been bet down to UGA -1. Did you know Kirby Smart is 26-2 coming off a bye in his coaching career at Georgia? UGA hasn’t lost a regular season game either since Dan Mullen was the coach of Florida. I think back to the Saban/ Kirby matchups….Uga was winning at the half for most of them. Nick Saban adjustments at the half made all the difference. I think DeBoer is an excellent coach, but I’m going to trust Kirby and his second shot at containing Milroe. Carson Beck plays up to his first round potential, and the dawgs pull away late 27-20.

4* K state -5 vs Okla st

Both these teams come off bad loses. K State was run out of the building dispute out gaining BYU on the road. Utah shut down Okla st at home with Cam Rising in the bench. I cannot get over how disappointing Okla st has been with the running game. Kstate is primed in this spot returning home as less than a TD favorite off a loss. I trust Chris Klienman to have the wildcats ready. I expect The Cowboy’s Qb will fold in the spotlight again if Gundy can’t get the running game going. Lay the points with the wildcats.

4* Kentucky +16 @ Ole Miss

This game is set up perfectly for the Cats to scare the Rebs. Ole Miss has yet to play a team with a pulse, but they have looked pretty. Lane has putt up a bunch of points, but this is the first test of the semester. Do not underestimate how important this season is for Lane. Ole Miss is all in and expectations are high. Kentucky has an Experienced defense, and Mark stoops earns his money as double digit underdogs. I think the Reps play tight and the cats keep this close. Give me Kentucky +16

3* Baylor -3 vs BYU

This matchup reminds me of when Icarus flew too close to the sun and his wings melted. BYU comes in undefeated after winning vs Kstate. The Cougars are now ranked in the top 25. Dave Aranda is desperate for a win after a heartbreaker vs Colorado. To the casual player this looks like a great opportunity to get points with a ranked team on the road. To me this looks like a perfect spot where BYU crashes back down to reality. Give me the bears -3 at home.

NCAAF 11-13 (-3.45 units)

What a rollercoaster of a game in Tuscaloosa last week.from being dead as a door nail, to a miracle comeback, to Georgia shutting the bed at the end. Time to reload the clip. Selections to follow…

5 * Army -12.5

Army is 4-0 record wise, and 4-0 against the spread. They have also out gained their opponents by an average of 190 yds a game in the stat column. In the flip side Tulsa has been out gained by an average of 100 yds a game. I cannot get that performance vs Okla st vs Tulsa when I was on Tulsa. Army will easily double rush the golden hurricane. This is a bad match up for Tulsa where Army will have their way on the ground. The kicker is that when Army wins as a favorite it . over 66% ats (60-32-2). Take Army -12.5


4* Arkansas +14

There’s no doubt that Tennessee comes into this one as national title darling. The Vols have had two weeks to sip on “rat poison.” The bugging games are still ahead for the Vols. Next week they host their rival Florida at home, and have dates with Bama and UGA down the road. Arkansas is looking to bounce back after losing a tough game to the Aggies. Sam Pitman and the Hogs show up best in the home dog role. They are also 8-2 ats in this series. Give me the hogs at home as I expect a close game until the end.

3* South Carolina +10 vs Ole Miss

Season outlooks can change so fast in college football. One week your top 6 and the sexy pick to make a postseason run, and the next you lose as 17 point chalk at home to Mark Stoops. If the Rebs lose this week…maybe lane would be available to make that early jump to Gainesville? Who knows…one thing for sure is that the circle surrounds Lane at all times, and Ole Miss cannot beat teams that out physical them. With the Ole Miss collectives and money folks going all in this off season, Lane is feeling the pressure… Cocktober has started! USC (East) comes in off the bye giving Sellers and Sanders time to recover from injuries. Beamer has a chance to build on a better than expected start to the season. I think the Rebs find away to hold on late a win the game, but given the difficulty of this road game and the pressure on Lane, they should not be favored -10. Give me the gamecocks at home and the points.

3* Navy -10

The midshipmen come into this one undefeated on the season at 4-0. I will admit that the Air Force has had the upper hand in this series recently, but they are just bad this season. Air Force has changed to an air raid type offense, which in my opinion goes the essence of a service academy match up. Air Force keeps it close, but I think the midshipmen pull away with a physical run game in the second half

4* Wash -1.5

To the casual this line is probably surprising. Top 10 Michigan is an underdog to Washington. They just beat USC and Minnesota. Washington is returning home off a tough loss to Rutgers. Washington has one of the best Home field advantages in college football. This is Michigans first road game this season in a part of the country they never venture too. This is strength on strength with to two great defenses. I trust this Washington’s offense at home to be more successful. Michigan is too one dimensional and it will be tough sledding vs this Husky front. I’ll take the dawgs at home.


4* Cal +10

The student body at Cal has dubbed this one “Woke vs Coke.” T-shirts are available I hear. This is the first time college game day has travelled to Berkeley. The bears have exceeded expectations this season with a road win at Auburn and a 3-1 record. Miami comes in undefeated after narrowly escaping a Hail Mary upset. The Hurricanes have bigger aspirations with an Acc title and playoff birth on the table. This is a tough spot for Mario. The pressure is mounting, and now you face this Cal on the road in a spot where they thrive. Maimi is 1-9 off a straight up win but an ats loss. Pair that with a Cal team that is 8-2 ats as a big home dog. It pains me to say but I’m riding with woke…at least for a few hours today.

NCAAF 16-14 (+13.25 Units)

We crushed that crazy college football Saturday going 5-1 (+16.7 units) on our selections. Only let down was South Carolina, and they were beat early after a botched fake punt and a fumble the next drive.

Back next week to keep the momentum going.

Nice job!

Saturdays Plays


4* Kentucky -13 vs Vandy

Who saw the Dores upsetting #1 Alabama as a 3 touchdown dog? Not many….but this might be the new norm in college football in 2024. With the transfer portal the big dogs do not have as much depth as they used to, and the margins of error are very small. Add in the emotional highs and lows of 18 year olds and you get 5 of the top 12 losing last week. I imagine there was a lot of partying in Nashville this week, I don't blame them after dumping the posts in the river and winning the biggest game in program history. How does Vanderbilt show up today on the road? Do you think they were focused and practiced hard all week? Kentucky has proven that their defense can contain most offenses. Bad situation for the Dores in this one in Lexington. Lay the points with the cats.

3*Oklahoma + 15 vs Texas

Ahhh the Politically Incorrect Red River Shootout. Texas comes in ranked #1 in the Nation. Sark’s team has looked dominant so far; however, outside of a solid win on the road at Michigan the schedule has been light. Ewers returns from injury today after the young Arch Manning filled in as the starter the last few weeks. Sooners have no chance today right?? Not so fast…The Sooners have dominated this rivalry. Venables had a bye week to prepare to throw the sink at this Texas offense. Is Oklahoma offensively challenged? Yes so far, but their young QB is starting to get his feet underneath him. Expect a tough physical game, because this will be the Sooners Super Bowl. Add in the fact that Gameday and a top 5 matchup with Georgia is on the horizon, and maybe you get a recipe for a close game. In this rivalry 15.5 is just too many points. Hold your nose and take the Sooners.


5* Lsu +3.5 vs Ole Miss

Situationally this game is fascinating to me. Ole Miss bounced back from their loss to Kentucky and cruised to a win in Columbia last week. Theres a ton of pressure on Lane and the Rebs. Ole Miss went all in this year, and a loss today effectively ends their chances of a playoff run. LSU is coming off a bye, and Brian Kelly teams get better and better as the season progresses. This series has seen some wild games, and the Tigers are searching for revenge after the Rebs won 55-49 in Oxford. When you add up all the pieces I think the wrong team is favored: Night game in Baton Rouge, LSU home underdog seeking revenge, Lane chokes in big games, LSU rested, Ole Miss second straight road game, top receiver Harris for Ole Miss beat up, and Bayou voodoo magic. There’s just too much going on here for Ole Miss to overcome. Tigers get revenge and win outright in this one. Take +3.5

4* Oregon +3 vs Ohio st

The whole country will have their eyes on this top 3 matchup. I find it interesting that we really haven’t seen either of these teams play anybody of note this season. The Ducks started slow with narrow wins vs Idaho and Boise st. As the season has progressed the Ducks oline got healthier and Gabriel started to settle in at QB. The buckeyes have the best roster in the country…on paper. After being owned by Michigan 3 years in a row Ryan Day has changed his philosophy from finesse to an emphasis on tough, physical play. A 13 million dollar Nil budget and the help of the transfer portal helps. Two things I question…Ohio state’s offensive line is mid, and can Will Howard win a game where he has to throw the ball. The buckeyes have taken care of business, but now they travel to the west coast to Eugine. Did you know that Big 10 teams that have travelled 2 time zones are 1-8 this year? Gameday, big lights, possible Big 10 championship preview…I see this game setup being similar to the Uga/Bama game. I think the road team has the better team, but the home dog finds a way. I’m taking the ducks and the points.

3* USC +4 vs Penn st

As with my other selections, this is a situational play. Usc returns home after losing at Minny last week. Lincoln Reilly and the Trojans are in wounded animal mode. Penn st is undefeated traveling 2 time zones (see last selection) to the west coast. I worry about PSUs quality of competition so far. The Nittany Lions haven’t played anybody worth noting, and this is their first road game!! Usc is battle tested playing LSU, and Michigan on the road. Lincoln will be in his bag today and will pull out all the stops. Is PSU the better team on paper? Yes…Are they better on the lines of scrimmage? Yes… Does James Franklin choke in situations like this? Yes.. give me the home dog in this one. Play USC +4


4* Arizona +3 @ BYU

Who saw BYU as being the face of the new look Big 12? Not me. The cougars are 5-0 sitting in the driver seat. BYU is lead by their defense, and coming off a bye they should be rested. The wildcats are 3-2 and lost to Texas tech at home despite holding Texas tech to a season low 332 yds. Now they go on the road looking to bounce back, and I think they will. Interestingly, BYU is only favored 3 at home. This line seems like a trap. I think BYU is over its skis, and this is a perfect opportunity for a letdown spot. Noah Fifita is the best QB this cougar defense has faced, and I think this wildcat team will do just enough to win this one outright. The road team has won this matchup and the last 3 meetings, and Arizona has been live dog vs undefeated teams. Add in the fact that BYU has struggled off a bye (3-12) as a short home favorite, and all the ingredients for an upset are present. Give me the wildcats +3.

Saturdays Plays


4* Kentucky -13 vs Vandy

Who saw the Dores upsetting #1 Alabama as a 3 touchdown dog? Not many….but this might be the new norm in college football in 2024. With the transfer portal the big dogs do not have as much depth as they used to, and the margins of error are very small. Add in the emotional highs and lows of 18 year olds and you get 5 of the top 12 losing last week. I imagine there was a lot of partying in Nashville this week, I don't blame them after dumping the posts in the river and winning the biggest game in program history. How does Vanderbilt show up today on the road? Do you think they were focused and practiced hard all week? Kentucky has proven that their defense can contain most offenses. Bad situation for the Dores in this one in Lexington. Lay the points with the cats.

3*Oklahoma + 15 vs Texas

Ahhh the Politically Incorrect Red River Shootout. Texas comes in ranked #1 in the Nation. Sark’s team has looked dominant so far; however, outside of a solid win on the road at Michigan the schedule has been light. Ewers returns from injury today after the young Arch Manning filled in as the starter the last few weeks. Sooners have no chance today right?? Not so fast…The Sooners have dominated this rivalry. Venables had a bye week to prepare to throw the sink at this Texas offense. Is Oklahoma offensively challenged? Yes so far, but their young QB is starting to get his feet underneath him. Expect a tough physical game, because this will be the Sooners Super Bowl. Add in the fact that Gameday and a top 5 matchup with Georgia is on the horizon, and maybe you get a recipe for a close game. In this rivalry 15.5 is just too many points. Hold your nose and take the Sooners.


5* Lsu +3.5 vs Ole Miss

Situationally this game is fascinating to me. Ole Miss bounced back from their loss to Kentucky and cruised to a win in Columbia last week. Theres a ton of pressure on Lane and the Rebs. Ole Miss went all in this year, and a loss today effectively ends their chances of a playoff run. LSU is coming off a bye, and Brian Kelly teams get better and better as the season progresses. This series has seen some wild games, and the Tigers are searching for revenge after the Rebs won 55-49 in Oxford. When you add up all the pieces I think the wrong team is favored: Night game in Baton Rouge, LSU home underdog seeking revenge, Lane chokes in big games, LSU rested, Ole Miss second straight road game, top receiver Harris for Ole Miss beat up, and Bayou voodoo magic. There’s just too much going on here for Ole Miss to overcome. Tigers get revenge and win outright in this one. Take +3.5

NCAAF 19-17 (+13.15 units) Broke even on games going 3-3, and lost 0.1 units overall. Our 5* selections improved to 4-2 on the season. Lots of good situational matchups out there this week. I do have a lean for Friday on OSU in the desperate underdog role, but I’m done burning money on BYU. Also, did you know that FSU is 22-0 vs Duke all time? Yeah not touching that either…but I wouldn’t be surprised if both won straight. Stay tuned for Saturday selections.