Michigan State +23.5
Michigan State wouldn't be a bad team if they switched qbs or limited his throwing playbook to simple throws regardless of reads. Chiles is a turnover machine but he is athletic. By far a better runner than passer (53% completion percentage). In their last game, State actually had 3 red zone turnovers in the first half against Ohio State, 1 on down and 2 fumbles. It's hard for a team to not quit after that but that's what happened. Michigan has beat Maryland and nearly upset Boston College (who went toe-to-toe with Mizz). They do have talent but it'll still take some time to gel after the embarrassment that was mel tucker. Their new coach is the former Oregon State head coach who is known for scrappy teams even if the talent around him is not as good as the others.
As for Oregon, everyone has been talking about their compete game against UCLA. But make no mistake, UCLA is a bad team and their qb was hurt and their offensive line is garbage. UCLA has one win on the season, 16-13 at Hawaii. Oregon was shut down in the second half of that game and it was 7-3 at the end of the first. Gabriel is definitely a better qb than Chiles but I've never been impressed with his accuracy, including the UCLA game. Of course, people talk about his completion percentage but if you look at his throws downfield or into traffic, he can be wildly inaccurate. He had a 96-yard pick 6 last week. His throwing stats are a direct correlation to the scheme Oregon runs. Bo Nix's completion percentage was off the charts at Oregon, but now with Denver they have essentially abandoned passes in front of the line of scrimmage. Oregon does have Ohio State next weekend so they could absolutely be looking ahead and come out slow. This Oregon team is the same team that had their hands full against Idaho (24-14) and needed a last second field goal to beat Boise State.
The key to this game for State is limiting Chiles turnovers. Oregon will win this game but Michigan State can keep it close if they limit Chiles's mistakes.
