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Saints -4.

Panthers are clearly looking at this as a rebuilding year recently picking up multiple 1st and 2nd year players who didn't make the final roster for other teams. Turning over such a huge percentage of your roster after the last preseason game indicates a different focus. In addition to freeing up future cap space it provides a year long audition for a lot of young plays. While you may find a gem or two there are likely good reasons these players were cut. Dave Tepper is Daniel Snyder 2.0 and as long as he stays involved in football decisions I don't expect the Panthers to get things turned around. The Saints are not world beaters but they should have enough here.

YTD 1-0

Chargers -6.5

I hate laying this many points on the road but I am not sure the oddsmakers have adjusted to just how bad the Panthers are. The Chargers check all of the boxes here as they are better in every area of play. The Saints throttled the Panthers and the Chargers are better than the Saints. Meanwhile the Panthers fans are already down on this team and I don't expect the normal 1st home game pop. The real question is whether 1st year coach Dave Canales will make it through the season. Normally a new coach with a bad team has a bye for the first year but this is David Tepper. He previously fired a 1st year coach in their expansion year on his Charlotte FC soccer team. Chargers roll by 2+ touchdowns.

YTD 2-0

LA Chargers +2.5

Taking the better team as the dog here. Pittsburgh has played well but in fact have only scored 1 touchdown in their 2 wins. The Chargers have not been overly impressive but honestly they have not really been pushed in their 2 games. This is good spot to take advantage of the early season results and grab the better team plus points.

YTD 2-1

Nothing but issues with me this year. I think I have had 1 weekend where things are not totally in turmoil for one reason or the other. Hopefully here to keep this thread going for the rest of the year.

Steelers +1.5 Hard to imagine the Steelers as a home dog here. A physical overachieving home dog against an underachieving road fav. Aaron Rogers over his last 1 1/2 of play has numbers more approaching the level of an average starter. Yet his line value remains as if he is still performing at All Pro levels. The Jets remain dysfunctional and are more likely to disappoint than surprise. Let's take the model of NFL stability and play the home dog here.

YTD 3-1

Buffalo -3

Seattle has put together a solid season but a close look at the stats for the Seahawks makes me question how. Their OPE of 89.9 puts them in the bottom half of the league. 22.14 yards per 1st down in the bottom quarter, my OL rating for them is 25.2 bottom half, def yds per rush of 5 bottom quarter of the league. I could go on. Overall their yardage and points for/points allowed are decent BUT the underlying metrics do not reflect the results. Typically that indicates that the yards and points will regress to numbers more in line with the basic performance stats. Again laying points on the road in the NFL is tricky and this Bills team can and will lay a few eggs. I think in this case the Bills get the job done and win by 7+ points

YTD 4-1

Washington -4

Here I go again laying points on the road and into what the numbers people would say is the ultimate "bad" pick. Guys like Fezzik would say that I could have gotten Washington at + points in the pre-season market and I am betting into 6.5-7 points the worst of it. I get it. I also get that laying points on the road in the NFL is not a long-term +EV. Finally I am fearful of backing the upstart Redskins oops whatever they are called these days as a road fav. However this is the only game that qualifies on both of my two most successful side models YTD. The model that heavily weights the OL shows clear value to Washington largely because of the 3.25 sacks per game allowed by the Giants. The model that utilizes historically regressed DVOA numbers also shows a clear advantage to Washington. While the defenses are pretty equal the DVOA DAVE number of the Giants of -10 versus +9.7 for Washington on shows the teams are playing on different levels. In reviewing the other technical factors Washington's offensive 3rd down conversion rate stand at an impressive 46.3% Their YPA rushing at 5.2 ypa; OPE at 106.2; yds per pass attempt at 8.4 reflects what we are seeing in the games. They are throwing the ball down the field successfully, opening up the running game and allowing them to convert a high % of 3d downs. Again it's NFL so anything can happen. However I believe that Washington is the right side here and they pull off a convincing road win say 31-10.

YTD 5-1

Buffalo -4

I should retitle this to laying points on the road thread. Pretty much the same rationale as last week. This is the only game on which my top two models agree. I will lean away from pointing out the differences in offensive performance as most were compiled without Flacco at qb. However I would suspect that with the immobile Flacco now at QB the OL rating for Indy will continue to decline. I think one telling stat is the Indy leads the league in allowing the most opponent offensive plays per game. My expectation is that Buffalo controls the ball wears down the Indy D and win by 2 TD's.

YTD 6-1

Baltimore -3

If it ain't broke don't fix it. Once again laying point on the road. Eventually it will bite us but for now let's keep it going. This game like the previous few weeks is the only qualifier on both of my top models. While the superior Baltimore OL rating is skewed by the elusiveness of Lamar Jackson the Ravens have an OPE of 123 versus 97.9 for the Steelers. That is really amazing in that I have never considered Jackson to be super accurate passer. I think what really stands out here is the DVOA DAVE difference here of 34 versus 4 which indicates the improvement of Baltimore as the season has worn on. Further the Steelers have averaged a full TO per game better than their opponents this year. A lot of that is due to the conservative nature of the Steeler offense. I expect Harbaugh to crowd the line and force Wilson to throw downfield. I don't think the Steelers enjoy their TO advantage in this one. Everything here says Baltimore and I think they win by 10.

Flat effort caught up with us last week. I've been traveling all week and running a bit behind. I'll be back this afternoon/evening with this week's pick.

YTD 6-2

Arizona Pick

Last week the Ravens came out flat and we dropped our first play in a few weeks. Today we again play a road team but are not laying points. Seattle is off a big road win and returns home in what becomes a spot for a letdown against one the NFL' s hottest teams. A few weeks ago we pointed out some anomality's in the Seattle stats and the same bit of smoke and mirrors exists this week. The record of Seattle is not consistent with the underlying stats. My plays weight heavily on the offensive line and thanks to Murray's elusiveness Arizona has one of the best numbers. Seattle is the the bottom quarter of the league. I expect James Connor to punish a poor Seattle run defense (4.8 ypa one of the worst) and open up the passing game. If you watch the Cards you know when James Connor is running with authority they are hard to beat. When he is punishing tacklers it seems to feed the entire team. Look for the Cards to step in and win this one.

Second flat effort in a row. Passing the Thursday games back tomorrow with a play for Friday. Happy Thanksgiving all!

YTD 6-3

Seattle Seahawks

More a play against the overvalued and dysfunctional Jets. Aaron Rodgers continues to perform like a below average NFL QB. Meanwhile Seattle continues to find a way to win. The Oddsmakers continue to overvalue the Jets while the more objective DAVE ratings show Seattle as a solid 8 point road favorite. You can never go wrong playing the team that is playing hard versus the team that is jut there for a paycheck. In this case everything says Seattle posts a road win.

YTD 7-3

Cincinnati -5.5

The Bengals have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL however in this game they play and even more underperforming team. While having a poor season the Bengals still possess the 3rd highest offensive passing efficiency in the league. My expectation is that Cincinnati has no issue moving the ball and the Cowboys have no answer. The DAVE rating have Cincy a solid 14 point better team and I think they win this one by 10.

YTD 8-3

Detroit -2.5

Better lucky than good with last weeks play. This week a rare home team as we take the best performing team in the league to cover the short number at home. Of all the Lions impressive stats this year, allowing a 1st down conversion on only 31.5% of 3rd down plays is amazing. In long run aggregate offensive/defensive conversions of 1st downs on 3rd down opportunities is highly correlated to winning. By contrast Buffalo allows a 1st down on 43.2% of 3rd downs. With the game indoors I don't see the Lions OPE of 110 slowing down. I would also expect that being a young team on the rise that they will be focused on a high profile opponent like the Bills. Look for the Lions to get a comfortable win.

YTD 8-4

LA Rams -3

Lets go back to road favs and play the team still trying to get into the playoffs. It is a must win for the Rams and the Jets have been the most overvalued dysfunctional team in the league. The Rams have been a solid 4-3 on the road and the Jets are only 2-4 at home. This weeks Woody Johnson disclosures have to be a further distraction. No way the Jets are focused here and I think the Rams win comfortably.

YTD 9-4

Detroit -3.5

Lost with the Lions a couple of weeks ago but a much more manageable spot here. It is another must win situation for Detroit as they attempt to keep the division lead and out of the wild card. San Fran has a solid team but has been devastated by injuries this year. While the Lions have also been hurt by injuries they have managed to stay the course. They maintain a huge 3rd down conversion advantage over most teams in the league. Hence my power ratings have them a solid 2 touchdown favorite here. The DAVE rating is 21 points higher for the Lions. Always dangerous to lay points on the road on Monday night and I do expect the 49ers to show up here. However I expect the Lions to win by 3.

Not sure I will have anything this week. With most of the playoff seedings decided only a handful of games have any real meaning. My expectation last week was that the packers would beat the Vikings. So I was very surprised at the result. Not totally sold on the Vikings despite the record. However the Lions appear to have just lost too much to injury to favor them in this spot. Playoffs look like a real tossup this year and I still wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers make it to the Super Bowl.

I will keep looking and be back Saturday. It may be a good week just to watch the games and relax.

Passing today. No need to force anything. Back with playoffs next week.

YTD 10-4

Lines are razor tight in the playoffs but I favor the Bucs here. My personal power ratings show the Bucs as a 3 point favorite on a neutral field meaning that they should be closer to a 5.5 to 6 point favorite here. This is largely based on the the difference in defensive yards per rush where TB allows a stellar 4.3 ypa attempt and Washington is at 4.8 ypa. But lets face it. the Bucs handled Washington easily in week 1 of the season and I expect the same today.