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Pretty spot on except IND was 8 points but still a one score game. Arizona won big and KC while needing OT did what they do, win.........

5-4 -20

Week 10

PIT +12
SF +3.5
AZ +12

Running way behind today and don't have time for the usual write up but I don't see PIT or AZ being smashed and who wouldn't want SF +3.5 against TB. I can see PIT and AZ winning SU.

Let's get that paper!

Winner

6-4 +80

PIT and AZ won SU as predicted. SF didn't cover the game spread but won the game. It didn't hurt to have the 3.5 cushion.

Week 11

Got a real doozy of one for you today............

BAL +7 - Typically very close games in this series and I trust Jackson way more than I do Wilson. While I respect what Pittsburgh has done so far this season, I like what Baltimore has done a lot more. Granted they appear to leak oil in the fourth quarter but this is such a bitter rivalry I see a tight game and don't see Pittsburgh winning by more than 7 if they do somehow win.

KC +12 - Mahomes as a dog, the Chiefs as a dog, Reid as a dog........ I get why Buffalo is favored, hot team, home field, but we haven't seen the best out of Chiefs so far this season. We'll see if they put it all together in a statement game for both teams. KC defense is going to cause issues for Bills OL. May see a lot of see Josh run in this one but it's likely going to the team with the ball last that wins.

SF +3.5 I'll take the triple cross over of 3, 0 and 3 on the other side. I can't see the Seahawks hanging with the 49ers offense. Smith is no slouch but this team is in disarray and running into a physical team like the 49ers won't help.

It's not often you get three of the leagues best teams getting points like this and at this point of the season this is likely one of the strongest plays to date. You know what to do.

I told you it was a real doozy. All three teams lost SU but due to the teaser points they all covered producing a winner.

Winner

7-4 +180

Just a little fodder for the thread.........

My personal ranking of how I see things.........

1. BUF 9-2
2. KC 9-1
3. DET 9-1
4. GB 7-3
5. BAL 7-4
6. HOU 7-4

Bubbling

MN, PIT, PHI all 8-2

First the bubblers, I'm still not sold on MN period. They have vastly overachieved so far this season and I see a regression coming. PIT & PHI have feasted on the 27th and 29th hardest schedule. In other words they've had it easy so far. We'll find out more about PIT as they continue their division games. PHI has high expectations and they've feasted on lightweights as they should.

The top 6 a few surprises in GB and HOU, I give these teams a lot more weight based on their 7th and 8th hardest schedule. To be where they are is really good. They both still have young QB's and have been erratic at times but have a lot of room for improvement. The sky's the limit for these two teams and they will be dangerous outs in the playoffs.

I still view BAL as a team that has huge upside still. They haven't put it all together as of yet this season and will the real Lamar please show himself. Detroit of the top 6 has the weakest schedule ranked 17th hardest.

I think we may have seen the peak of Buffalo and we haven't really got to the point where KC turns it on. I think they are somewhat going through the motions and doing just enough until it really matters. That's when this team will peak yet again this year. They are going to be hard to beat. Nothing from the NFC South or NFC West......... suckville right now.......... we shall see who if anyone makes a run late to end the season.

Week 12

Pretty boring schedule this week, there really isn't a game outside of AZ/SEA that has truly peaked my interest.

KC -.5 - KC won't exert a lot here but will do enough to get the win. Thought about CAR +20.5 but they just as easily can be blown out.

MIA +3 - this is more of an anti NE play than anything else. MIA has been a house of horrors over the years for them and I see a potential blowout here. Why not take the +3?

AZ +10 - I've been bullish on AZ this year and it's paid off. Coming off a bye and granted it's a place that they haven't had much success at... however SEA coming off a physical SF game and upset win. Looking for the emotional let down here as well. I like AZ chances of winning SU but +10 should do the trick.

Until next week, have a great Thanksgiving holiday!

This bet is a winner for me but only at 50% of a full unit. Everygame reduces ties in teasers and this basically became a -200 wager instead of -130

Depending on where you wager this could be graded a winner at reduce odds such as this, a push or a loss. I received the win and will grade it as I bet it. What sucks is the Cardinals missed a chip shot FG at the end or none of this would be up in the air. Glad I use Everygame for my teasers and suggest you do as well.



Reference no. xxxxxxxxx
Placed 11/24/2024 7:31:02 AM
Type Spread AF 10.0

Status Win
Odds -130
Stake 520.00
Return 780.00

11/24/24 11:02 AM
NFL Lines Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Spread Kansas City Chiefs -0.5 (-10.5)
11/24/24 2:25 PM
NFL Lines Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread Arizona Cardinals +10 (0)
11/24/24 11:02 AM
NFL Lines New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Spread Miami Dolphins +3 (-7)

8-4 +230

Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving to all the readers and followers of this thread.

Let's get my updated rankings out of the way first.

1. BUF 9-2
2. KC 10-1
3. DET 10-1
4. GB 8-3
5. BAL 8-4
6. PHI 9-2

Bubbling

MN 9-2

HOU dropped from #6, PHI enters as #6

MN remains the only bubbler as PIT fell off the list.

Now on to the teaser play.........

Most of you are expecting DET today as the free square and they likely are. I do like CHI just a little but not enough to even tease. After all there is a potential for blow out here.....

I will be using another Thanksgiving game instead..........

GB +6.5 - This has everything to do with GB and they should be able to handle Tua and company in what might be a tougher game than expected.

AZ +13.5 - Going back to AZ even after they cost me a full payout last teaser. Blame that on the K. I'm still not 100% sold on this MN team and I expect a much better performance from AZ. They disappointed last week and many will blow them off but I think they might be able to win here SU.

PHI +13 - Give me this all day. This should be a great game and like AZ, I think PHI has an opportunity to win SU. Looking forward to this match up and hopefully the final piece to another winning ducat.

Old timers will understand ducat, young hipsters, not so much!

Good Luck with your plays.

Winner 9-4 +330

As easy as it gets and six straight winners...........

Short schedule this week so I'm calling an audible and going with a two team 6 point teaser today!

PIT PK - In a word Payback!
MIA -.5 - NYJ are over matched here.

Lay it at -110

Took a Miami comeback down 23-15 to force OT and win but this got home and cashed at the cage.

Seven straight weeks of winners.

10-4 +430

Thanks, Freak! I’ve followed them all, great job!

Updated Rankings

1. DET 12-1
2. KC 12-1
3. BUF 10-3
4. PHI 11-2
5. PIT 10-3
6. MN 11-2

We have two top six ranking teams matching up this week. 1 vs 3 and 4 vs 5. Should be an interesting 4PM window of games later today.

I know I've been successful on the teasers and on a nice long streak but don't over bet it if you are tailing along. I'm not suggesting I'm planning on losing but we aren't going to get rich in one wager and we certainly don't want to go broke either.

Here's the 10 pt teaser for this week.

CIN +5 - Turning -5 to plus 5 is going thru -3, 0 and +3 and we get a team that's hot on the offensive side and sure they leak on the defensive side, but I just can't see TN being able to match point for point here and if some how TN would win this game it won't be more than a TD.

MIA +13 - Yes, HOU is coming off a bye but they had a lot to work on as this team was way out of sync for several games. I don't think you can fix that in a week and beat a MIA team by two touchdowns. MIA did struggle with a NYJ squad at home the week before needing OT and delivering a win for us, I just see a much more focused effort here as they aren't out of the playoff race quite yet. In Tua we trust once again this week.

PIT +15.5 - This is going to be an interesting match up. PIT will focus on shutting down Barkley and they have the defensive front to wreak havoc on top of it. PIT will need Russ to keep cooking as he has improved nearly every week. I looked back at his play level in DEN to what he is doing here in PIT and it's night and day. Why you ask, coaching style and a front seven that gives him the time to go through his progressions and not always under siege as he was in DEN. If PHI wins by 3 scores we deserve to lose this but I have a sneaky suspicion this is going to the wire one way or the other. Should be tight, low number of possessions and the team with the ball last likely wins.

Good luck and I'll meet you at the cashiers cage.

It was a slow start for CIN down 14-7 but they kicked it into gear and won going away. If you look at the box score you would think TN would've won the game. The teams accounted for 10 turnover and 26 penalties. TN had one more FD, four more TY and three more drives and lost by 10 and it was 16 until the final play TD. A rather strange ITS look at this game.

MIA is another ITS winner yet still lost 20-12. HOU only had 12 FD and 181 TY on 50 plays. MIA had the ball nearly seven more minutes. They ran 62 plays, had 18FD but only had 224 TY. So what killed them? 4 turnovers. In Tua we trust had 2 horrific INT's and his 3rd and final was a defensive gem as the defender stole the ball from Hill on the final drive on a sideline route. This was definitely a game that MIA could've and should've won. While it shows HIOU winning by 8, they easily could've lost by double digits.

In what ended up being a nail biter PIT manages to give up a long drive to end the game without giving up any points to lose by 14. Watching this game was frustrating because things that I thought would happen were happening until a penalty or in the third quarter which was the swing of the game was the Harris fumble. How you can't catch a perfect pitch to you in the red zone is beyond me. That play was easily a 10-14 point difference. Philadelphia went on a long drive and went up 14 instead of either being tied or ahead 4. When you look at the stats in this game you would think it was a 38-0 type game.

PHI 26-10 in FD, 401-163 yes 163 in TY. 131-56 in RY and nearly 40M to 20M in TOP. This game even with these lopsided stats was a lot closer than the final score. PIT couldn't make the stops needed on 3rd down and it cost them. When you give up 10/17 against PHI you just aren't going to win. But we got the W here and it gave us yet another W for the season. I nailed the write up on this game as there was a total of 18 possessions and PHI did have the ball last and won.

Record now 11-4 +530

It really is 12-4 +630 I'm still miffed where that post several weeks ago went. Plus if you toss out the NCAA teaser that lost it would be 12-3 +760 !!!!

But we will go with 11-4 +530

8 straight weeks of W's.

Not that it matters because I frankly don't think very many are reading this thread. Tis a shame because I've been a gold mine for teasers for years!

Nice hit…appreciate all the winners!

never played a teaser in my life( and I'm getting to be an old man). May have to reconsider this after all these years!

Let's see if we can keep things going..................

CIN +.5 - Which offense do you trust to score points? Which team is still giving max effort? It's certainly not Cleveland. I have this at a better price but this is the current number.

PHI +6 - Almost the same as the above except WAS hasn't quit as they are looking to get into the playoffs. What will be the difference here? Defense. PHI is levels ahead of WAS.

SF +8 - In a battle of also rans, one team still has pride and the other squad is playing as individuals. A team will beat individuals all day.

As I've said before just because I'm on a heater with these NFL teasers, it doesn't mean you can bet like a mad man! I won't disguise the fact that I've stepped out on this play because I really love it, but I didn't go crazy. You shouldn't either.

The long streak came to end since Sf couldn't beat a group of individuals or stay within the number although they had a back door chance which ended in an interception.

11-5 +400

I will end up with a winning ledger this season once again. It's just a matter of how much!

I hate losing big time, I mean don't we all. I think I take it more personal because I know people are following along and putting their hard earned cash on the line riding with me. Alas it's a bump in the road and I have visions of ending the season on a winning streak.

Ratings of teams no longer comes into play as many playoff spots are taken and other teams are either tanking or playing for spots next year. They won't admit to tanking but isn't so obvious?

I will say that when I looked at the lines as they came out Sunday night that I started salivating and couldn't wait to ring the register this week. Even more so after a loss.

Let's get to it..........

CIN +7 -The public is all over DEN at +3 to +3.5 Everygame has it at -3. I know CIN hasn't beaten a team with a winning record but I believe if they would lose this game it won't be by 7+. Frankly I don't see them losing this game and setting themselves up for a slight chance at making the playoffs.

LAR +3.5 - I am going to side with the team that needs a win and will be out for revenge from an earlier season beat down. While AZ has nothing to play for and their dreams crushed at Carolina, how motivated will they be? I can remember playing on AZ in years past late in the season in LA and they were no where to be found. I'll take the side that needs the win.

GB +11 - The better team and it's really as simple as it gets.

I liked last weeks teaser a lot but I'll say this and I never say this lightly......... I absolutely LOVE this play. I love it so much that I've stepped out HUGE on this play for the limit at Everygame and tomorrow I'll be back for more when they open up the limits. If they don't I'll lay the lumber at Sportsbook likely at a small difference in line but at -120.

Don't go hog wild, but go wild !!!!

So I've been e-mailed if it was ok to bet MN -1 even though we have GB +11

The answer is YES. You have a 10 point middle.

Normally I would be all over this middle but I'll be holding pat as I like GB to win the game SU. Vegas needs GB as well and I'll side with that side of the counter always.

GL and let's get that paper!