Farmer's Insurance

Typically my approach in-tournament is to look at the underlying SG metrics and fade the guys who gained a bunch putting, and lost on OTT / APP (and vice-versa for buy on guys). Hate the NC bc no data, I can't believe it's 2025 and we don't have shot tracking at every PGA course. Anyways,

Fades:
Matthieu Pavon: -3.73 T2G (mostly on his approach play), +3.33 PUT. I'm going to stay away because his matchups are heavily juiced, and last year he gained SG:PUT on every round and finished +1.99 on the weekend on route to victory.
Stephan Jaeger: -2.65 SG:APP led to negative on T2G and compensated with +2.16 SG:PUT. Pre-tournament rankings say he could go low tomorrow, pass.
Emilliano Grillo: -7.01 !! SG:T2G, +1.59 SG:PUT but couldn't save him from 6 over par round. I see a matchup vs Lee Hodges on BookMaker that intrigues me, matches up really well but not a position worth risking -150 over. I'd lay -0.5 -120 if that becomes available in the morning, though.

Buys:
Tony Finau: the reason why I had to leave him out of my pre-tournament card... +2.74 T2G but lost -2.16 PUT. Maybe something still lasting with his surgery from the offseason, stays on the no bet list for now.
Sungjae Im: +2.62 TSG & +3.58 SG:TOT on the tough south course. I'm not a DFS or underdog player but he ranked #1 on my pre-tournament NC scoring. I think he goes real low tomorrow. Not sure the best way to attack it right now (live placement, live outright good ideas). I'll probably be kicking myself when I didn't lay -130 vs Finau and it's a rocking chair winner.


1 unit : Mac Meissner o Adam Svensson (-135), available at BookMaker
0.5 unit : Sungjae Im o Tony Finau (-130), available at BetOnline

- Model liked Mac and ranks 28th in NC scoring (vs 106th), has the edge with his long irons and his putter. Slight concern of his 11/18 GIR today but it's more of a bet against Svensson. His putter won't keep up w/ Mac (2 good par saves + 1 birdie today) and his course history doesn't suggest he'll turn the page (scored +2 on the NC last year). 83 spots differentiate these two in my live model, I'll pay to see it.
- I kept typing and talked myself into it, this really shouldn't be the same price as it was in round 1.
- I'll be back in the am to see if we can lay -0.5 w/ Hodges, if not it'll stay a lean at -150.

Near Misses;
Lee Hodges o E Grillo (-150)
Jhonny Vegas o Justin Lower (-130), model says at this price it's a go, Vegas +2.58 SG:TOT today but don't entirely trust his putter enough. If he shows it tmrw, I'll look to back him on H2H's over the weekend.
Doug Ghim o M Kim (-135), liked Ghim pre-tourney and M. Kim was horrendous on Wed., but price is a bit steep for me.



Pending:
1 unit : Aaron Rai ov Ben Griffin (+104)
1 unit : Erik Van Rooyen ov Max McGreevy (-119)
1 unit : Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-140) dead-heat rules apply.

Hofstra Pride -3
Hofstra has only given up more than 65 points once in their past five matchups
Delaware has allowed at least 80 points in their last four away games
Hofstra holds opponents to 37.5% from the floor and 32.8% on threes
Delaware rebounding has been terrible with the team ranking sitting at 319th
Delaware ranks 305th in defense

Edmonton Oilers ML -185, Not really one for laying big numbers but this is a spot too good to pass up with how heated last game got between these 2 teams, I think the oilers avenge their mini 2 game losing streak in this one and you’re getting a bargain with no mcdavid in the lineup.

Bakersfield over 143

The total has gone over in the last 5 Bakersfield games on the road and 7 of the last 8 Fullerton’s home games against Bakersfield. Good luck

UTEP -6.5, easy side here for me, my line came 8 so I expect some upward movement today so took it already...GLA!

staying in the big ten


again, a fun game is what I see in this one

up and down


illlionois and Maryland get it over the top
OVER 157. 1/2
hit them threes. please

Portland +8. Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Orlando

Illinois -7.5
Kasparas Jakucionis and crew will cover over Maryland

Celtics laker over 218. Teams playing in LA on back to backs over the past few seasons have like a 70% insane OVER rate to the following game whether it’s lakers or clippers. I think Celtics care more about this game vs clippers last night as well

Illinois -7.5...Illinois are rested and looking to win after losing 2 of their last 3...Maryland not a good road team

Lakers +5.5

Lakers catching Celtics on 3rd game in 4 nites and back to back

Orl-8.5 Orlando is missing a bunch of pieces, but they are still playing better than expected. I believe they should win by double digits take Orlando.

Atlanta Hawks -5. Atlanta has lost two in a row and is returning home tonight. They will play with extra effort to avoid having a three game slide.

LA Tech -5

WKU probably down 2 players
LA Tech was preseason favorite but is just 2-4 however all 4 were on the road and close
Seems it should be somewhere around 7 or 8

Tennis- Shelton +6.5 Games. Sinner is the best player in the world right now, but I think Shelton can force some tight sets with his serve

Rangers -148 ML… They are 6-1-3 in their last ten games, and sit just two points out of a wildcard playoff spot. They are coming off a dominant 5-0 victory over the Ottawa Senators that saw all their superstars find the scoresheet. With that win, netminder Igor Shesterkin is 5-0-1 in his last six starts with two shutouts. He seems to have found his game. With their team offense hovering right around three goals for per game, they will be going up against a Flyers team that struggles defensively. The Flyers are ranked 27th in the NHL allowing 3.31 goals per game.

Boston B’s

Ottawa tired legs here ridiculous string of games
they have nothing left in tank. boston off a loss to NJ last night bounces back at home

Lakers +5. Taking the home dog with Boston most likely tired playing so often. Maybe they’ll pull you out right upset. Three games in four nights actually is hard on bodies Adding on the road tonight

Portland +9 (-110)

The Orlando Magic have injury issues and illnesses that has sunk into its depth. As a result, the Magic have lost six of its previous seven and is 4-6-0 ATS across the past 10 games.