Germany Bundesliga
FC St Pauli von 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart 1893
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-120)

FC St. Pauli, despite scoring the fewest goals in the Bundesliga (29 in 31 matches), have consistently squandered opportunities, as evidenced by their xG overperformance (+11.79 expected goals, per xG tables). This suggests untapped attacking potential, particularly at home. Defensively, they’ve conceded 36 goals, but their xGA (+10.77) indicates vulnerability to quality attacks, especially against teams with sharp chance creation. VfB Stuttgart, trailing only Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt in big chances created (78 in 31 matches). With no major stakes left in the league (secure mid-table position), Stuttgart play with freedom, as seen in their recent high-scoring run (15 goals across three matches before a 0:1 loss to Heidenheim, where they missed multiple clear opportunities).

NBA playoffs
Game 7 UNDERS

14-5 since 2019
42-24 since 2004

clippers nuggets under 206.5

nuggets have shot over 50% the last two games, which the law of averages says it will not continue

NBA

LA CLIPPERS - 120 Moneyline

I like Clippers to win this game because last game Clipers took over the game in the last quarter with Kawhi just went off to score the points inside.
Clippers is better team on the road and very hungry for this to series.
Clippers for a win clippers play very well on the road and also this elimination game for both teams.

mets -148

the Mets have won each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record

Yankees over 9.5 perfect weather wind out to right both pitchers with era over 5

Arizona Diamondbacks +105
Diamondbacks are 9-7 on the road
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt is 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season
Pfaadt has allowed two runs or fewer in his last four starts
Phillies starter Nola has a 7.15 ERA at home this season and has allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts
Diamondbacks lead the majors with .337 on base percentage and rank fourth with 5.19 runs/game

Nuggets -1.5
Nuggets are at home, and Nikola Jokic is shooting 29.6 PPG and 57.6FG%

Detroit Tigers ML -166
This is mismatch in every statistical category you can imagine.
Flaherty’s numbers are not great but if you dig deeper he has faced some tough teams to start the year.
Can’t really say the same from Hendricks. What do we even expect from him these days. He’s ceiling is 5 innings at most. This is really bad news for LA as not only is their bullpen complete trash, it is significantly depleted. Jansen got lit up last night and probably isn’t even available today.

Take the ML
take -1
-1.5

Tigers will route them once again.

Brewers -105
Quintana has been lights out and brewers will show life after the beat down last night

Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

The San Diego Padres are 5-5 over their last 10 games and are 6-7 away from home this season.

Padres SP Randy Vásquez has struggled over his last 5 starts compiling a 1-4 record with a 5.48 ERA

Astros RL -147

Brown 3-0 2.41 vs WSOX he may be Astros best pitcher right now

Saturday
Soccer
Turkey Super Lig
12 PM
Galatasaray v Sivasspor
Over 3.5 (-160) 1.29 to win .8063

Other options
Over 3.75 (-120)
Over 4.00 (+100)


Other leans
Argentina Primera
2:30 PM
Almagro v San Miguel
Draw (+190) .72 to win 1.37

Brewers -109

The pitching change last night did not help, but Cubs continue to be a hitting juggernaut while Brewers can not hit to safe their lives. I think Quintana, who has been pitching great with a 4-0 and 1.14 ERA start, can slow down the Cubs. Brewers are 9-4 the last 13 at home. Good luck

Yankees -185

-185 is a lot but they Yanks should win this afternoon game. They have scored 180 runs vs 121 for the Rays. TB has scored 3 runs in their last 4 games. Yanks are 11-5 at home and 10-5 in day games.

NBA
Over 207 clippers vs nuggets.
They over adjusted this total

Houston -1.5

Houston makor pitching advantage today White Sox havent hit at all the last 6/7 games. Look for Brown to get them the W in Chicago today.

MLB Mariners F5 -125

Mariners pitcher Castillo has a 3.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 32 innings pitched (last year: 3.64 & 1.17, 175 innings)
Rangers pitcher Corbin has a 3.79 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with 19 innings pitched (last year: 5.62 & 1.50, 174 innings)

Tampa under 9.5 The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games.

Stars ML. I'll take a shot with the dog in a game 7 in which anything can happen. Avs have the experience but the stars have been hanging with them and I'll take the plus money.