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I guess it is a game of inches after all! I’ve missed the close sweat, and we will take the win to start the season. No official play, but I do lean Hawaii vs the cardinal. Back next week with the first full slate.

NCAAF

1-0 +3 units

It’s difficult to handicap games during week one. There are a few key factors I like to lean on when picking early. Which team is healthy, who has returning talent edge, and is there a revenge factor all 3 questions that come to mind. There is one game on Thursday where one team gets the checkmark for all 3. Remember, I’m a firm believer that in college ball situational and emotional edges are important.

3 units NC state -14

Nc state has no injuries reported post fall camp…check. Qb CJ Bailey returns under center for the pack, and Dave Doren’s squad has a huge edge in the talent department…check. Your casual fan may not know this, but these two played in the military bowl last year. The result? Ecu beat nc state on a late score 26-21. This resulted in a fight that left two NC state players and one pirate suspended for the first half. A bitter pill for the pack to swallow, but how often do you get a chance for redemption to kick off the season? Revenge…check. Look for NC state to cash in to start the season 31-13. Play NC state -14

GL

Well the pack had every chance in the book to put that game away up 17-0 with the ball in the first half and couldn’t do it. There must have been 4 or 5 3rd and 15 or longer they gave up to the pirates as well…NC state will always be NC state. Let’s bounce back tonight with two plays

NCAAF 1-1 -0.3 units

4 units Georgia tech -3.5

The jackets are 26th in returning production, and a dark horse to make a run in the ACC this year. Their offense is led by duel threat QB Haynes king and running back Jamal Haynes. This team is hungry, experienced, and has a clear identity. The buffaloes on the other hand have tons of turnover. No more sanders and Hunter, and Kaiden Salter won the starting job over talented freshman JUJU Lewis. I think Colorado's lack of cohesion makes the difference in this one. Play the jackets -3.5

3 units Baylor +2

This is one of those matchups where there is no doubt that Auburn has the better roster and talent edge. In a vacuum they should never lose this game…but Hugh Freeze cannot be trusted…ever. Dave Aranda’s team returns senior QB sawyer Robertson and most of their returning cast. Auburn brought in Jackson Arnold to restore the Auburn offense. Their wide receiver talent is elite and will make some plays. In the end, I just think Auburn is not coached well, and will make the fatal flaw (turnover or penalty) that will make the difference. Take the bears at home +2

GL

NCAAF 2-2 +.4 units

3 units Toledo +10

The rockets are a dark horse to make the playoffs in some circles. I’m not so sure about that, but I do like their returning production led by QB Tucker Gleason. Kentucky has zero media expectations, and might as well be circling the drain. It’s going to be hard to compete in the SEC when a large percentage of their revenue share is going to the basketball program. The worse of it they couldn’t afford to replace stoops if they wanted to. Kentucky will try to turn this into a rock fight. Toledo will have enough offensive firepower to keep this one inside the number in a 27-20 type game. Take Toledo +10

3 units Clem/LSU under 57.5

Everyone just assumes this will be a high scoring game, but I’m not so sure. Yes I know we have 2 heisman favorites matching up. I need to see if LSU’s offensive line can block a Clemson front 7 loaded with future nfl talent. Clemson has to prove it can physically match up against an SEC team. Last year they were held in check by Uga, South Carolina, and Texas. I see both coaches playing not to lose in the first half, and then it will open up in the second half. It won’t be enough to get over the number. Take Under 57.5

I don’t think many had bama losing straight up to FSU by 2 tds….College football is so back, and we have one play this opening weekend.

NCAAF 4-2 +6.4 units

3 units Miami +3

Got to love a Catholics vs cons matchup on opening weekend. Miami is hoping Carson Beck can lead the hurricanes to an ACC title and playoff birth. There is a bit of an unknown on if he is 100 recovered from his injury, but he does have experience in spades over his counter part, redshirt freshman CJ Carr. Hard to believe a freshman in his first start (and on the road) can play at a high level. This game will come down to whether Miami can match ND’s toughness and physicality on the offensive and defensive lines. I think it’s a bit premature to just assume ND will be on the same level as last season. Miami has recruited at an elite level, so I think they will be able to match dude for dude with the Irish. This will be a close low scoring game, and in the end I think the experience of Beck will lead to a late field goal drive giving Miami the win. 24-21. Play Miami +3

GL

Ended the weekend strong winning all 3 of our Saturday/Sunday selections. I will be writing a quick weekend review each week this season. Here are my thoughts as we turn the page to week 2:

1. Experience at QB matters! Especially on the road vs top 10 talent rosters. Ty Simpson, Arch Manning, and CJ Carr all learned that lesson the hard way…but I think they will be better for it later in the year. Just ask Garrett Nussmeier and LSU. His experience made a positive difference in the 2nd half vs Clemson.

2. Defensive Renaissance in 2025? Generally speaking defense is always ahead of offense early in the season, but man we saw some good ones in week one. Clemson, LSU, Texas, and Ohio state led the pack. UGA, Penn st, and Oregon looked promising, but I need to see them play better competition. Hell….Miami held their own and iced the game with a defensive stop. I’m curious to see how Vegas adjusts totals going forward.

3. Wellness Checks…how do Auburn and Alabama fans feel this morning?? I’d think both fan bases have completed a 180 degree turn. Most of the time when you turn on the tape it’s never as good or as bad as you think, but man Alabama looked slow and undisciplined. A concerning trend as DeBoer is 4-4 over his last 8. Meanwhile on the planes they are still picking up toilet paper after rolling tumors corner. Jackson Arnold comeback in full force??? I think the jury is still out. Good win on the road vs Baylor though. Auburn loses that game 10/10 times last season.

4. Games I have my eye on next week:

Ole Miss @ Kentucky- revenge game on the road for Kiffin and the Rebs. The media experts will be on ole Miss, but don’t be surprised if Kentucky drags them into a defensive slugfest. Ole Miss also has a young inexperienced qb making his first sec road start. Talent takes a back seat to experience, and so I ask the audience do you trust a new starter to go into Lexington and cover 9.5 points?? This line is under the critical number of 10…and that’s the point… Vegas is begging to public to line up and lay 9.5. On paper Ole Miss is 2 TDs better than Kentucky, Stoops has made a living off this situation…

Kansas @ Mizzou - The QB battle for the tigers came to an abrupt end when Sam horn went down in the first quarter. Pribula will take the reins vs the Jayhawks. The good news for Mizzou is this game is in Columbia, the bad news Jalon Daniels is back for what’s seems like his 9th season. This will be a strength vs strength matchup. Kansas is lead by their offense, and Mizzou their physical defense. Who will break through in this old Big 12 rivalry?

Michigan @Oklahoma - Would you believe it if I told you these two teams are going to shape the college playoff landscape? Oklahoma is a popular dark horse out of the second level of the sec pecking order, but the schedule is brutal. You know Venables will have a top 10 defense, but my questions is if the Sooners have the offensive weapons to win. Michigan is rebuilding and trying to get out from under their cheating scandal. The good news is they have their QB of the future in Bryce Underwood, but they do not have the weapons at receiver…yet. I could see this being a rock fight, but on paper I think the Sooners should win…the question is does Venables have the minerals?



NCAAF 5-2 +9.4 units

-Pipe

4 units Duke @Illinois 1st half under 24

Both these teams project for a slow start. Duke ranks in the bottom tier in adjusted tempo, leaning on a run-heavy approach and a defense that limits explosives. Illinois under Bielema has been consistent with scripted drives that eat clock but rarely produce early points. Duke has hit the 1H under in 4 of its last 5 non-conference games, while Illinois has cashed 1H unders in 6 of its last 8. With limited possessions and two physical defenses, this sets up for a tight, low-scoring opening half. I could see the QBs opening it up as the game goes along.

3 units Ole Miss @Kentucky 1st half under 24

Lane Kiffin comes into this one with revenge on his mind. Stoops’s squad just got back door covered by Toledo. Similar to my first play I think this will be a rock fight early. Kentucky ranks 117th in adjusted tempo and leans on a run-heavy script that chews clock. Ole Miss averages just 1.5 first-half TDs per game on the road in SEC play and tends to slow against physical defenses. Kentucky has stayed under the 1H total in 5 of its last 7 SEC home games, while Ole Miss has gone under in 4 of its last 6 road SEC matchups. With limited possessions and two disciplined defenses, early scoring should be muted.

5 units Ore -17 vs Okla st in First half

The Ducks obliterated Montana State 59–13 in Week 1, scoring on nearly every possession in the first half. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State escaped with a 27–7 win over UT-Martin—but at a steep cost. Their starting QB Hauss Hejny is out with a foot injury, and the offense sputtered behind backup Zane Flores. Ducks have every edge here. Oregon scores fast, pushes tempo, and Lanning isn’t shy about running it up—especially after the back-and-forth with Gundy in pressers this week. OSU is down to a backup QB, their OL looked shaky, and now they face one of the most disruptive fronts in the country. Wrong matchup, wrong spot. Play the Ducks -17 first half.

3 units Miss st +7 vs Arizona st

Cowbells in Starkville make this a brutal road trip. Jeff Lebby’s tempo offense looked sharp in Week 1 with Blake Shapen running the show, and MSU’s front seven can slow down ASU’s run game. Add in the bulletin-board fuel from Dillingham’s presser, and the Dawgs have both matchup and motivation edges. Live dog at home. Thaw the bulldogs +7.

4 units South Florida +18 @ Florida

The Bulls are getting nearly 3 touchdowns in The Swamp. QB Byrum Brown looked electric Week 1, and USF’s defense thrives on takeaways. Sunbelt Billy is all in on DJ Langway, and needs to bubble wrap him with their brutal schedule kicking in next week. I see the Gators getting up and resting their starting QB. USF is motivated to prove they’ can hang with the big boys, and this spread is large. Expect a few long drives, a turnover or two, and a late bull score to get inside the number. Play south Fla +18

GL

NCAAF 8-4 +13.7 units

A net positive this weekend as we netted 4.3 units. We had cigar game with Oregon, south Florida, and held on with Miss st. I’m still not sure how we lost that first half under in the Illinois game…it took roughing the passers, personal fouls, and a miracle toe touch in the end zone to beat us. I’d still take that pick, unlike the ole miss game. That was just a bad selection.

1.The coaching hot seat- Some coaches that have answered the bell so far this year, and silenced the nay sayers… Mike Norvell and Brian Kelly lead the pack. What a difference a year makes for the Noles, it’s almost like that 2-10 didn’t happen. It looks like FSU will be a player for the ACC. LSU is riding high as well after they broke their 0-5 streak in season openers. It’s not time to write these two teams into the CFP, but their ceilings have lifted early in the season. On the flip side….Dabo and Billy Napier what are y’all doing? Both coaches have seemingly erased any good will from last season two weeks into the season. Clemson is talented enough in the ACC to fake their way to 9 or 10 wins, but I just don’t think they have the offensive line to beat the big boys. Sunbelt Billy just doesn’t know how to win…or prepare his team…period. If I was the Florida Athletic department I’d call Alex Golish’s representatives today. Beating Florida in the swamp at an 18 point dog seems like a perfect way to interview for the on coaching position next year.

2. Parity- It’s going to be the name of the game this year. NIL and the transfer portal have gutted the depth of a lot of traditionally competitive teams. So I’ll be keeping an eye on the injury report as the season moves along. That being said, I think the teams that develop their younger depth as the season moves along will be there in the end. Do not fall into the trap of assuming that the big boys like Penn state, Georgia, Ohio st, etc…will easily cover spreads against the big underdogs. As we saw this past weekend preventing injuries and playing young talent is more important than emptying the clip vs some directional school. On the flip side, pay close attention to live home dogs. There will be more results like Florida and Arizona st as the season rolls along.

3. Games I have my eye on this week:

UGA @Tennessee

This has got to be the year Josh Heupel and the Vols break UGA’s 8 game winning streak…right? Well the betting public certainly thinks so. This game opened UGA -7 and has been bet down to -3.5. Well I can see why when Tennessee hangs 70+ on ETSU, and Uga muddied the water only putting up 28 vs Austin Peay. Gunner Stockton missed several opportunities to connect down the field on big plays, and that’s concerning. As the saying goes though it’s never as good or bad as it seems. The film tape often tells a different story, and I encourage you to watch it h UGA’s lines of scrimmage. I think Kirby has fixed the problems over the last few seasons, and they will bully Tennessee. Did you know that Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points on Georgia since Kirby smart took over? Point being, if Georgia is back to the 2021/2022 play on the lines of scrimmage, there’s going to be a lot of hurt feelings in Knoxville Saturday night.

Texas AM @ Notre Dame

Physicality will be the name of this game. Both coaches have built their respective teams on the offensive and defensive lines of scrimmage. I think CJ Carr will be successful as he gains more experience. I’m not sure what the deal is with ND Love, but I’d expect more than what we got week 1 at Miami. This will be the Aggies first test of the season. Let’s be honest the results in their first two games has been ok, but I expect a Mike Elko defense to bow their back on the road. Don’t forget the revenge angle in this one, as Notre Dame got the best of Tex AM early in the season last year.

South Florida @ Miami

Are the bulls the best team in the state of Florida?? I’m not sure, but they certainly have their opportunity to prove it this week. They find themselves as a 17 point dog on the road again, this time against Mario and the hurricanes. A let down after beating the gators would be understandable, but man if this one is close in the second half who would you give the in game coaching advantage to? It’s certainly not Cristobal…the hurricanes better bring their big boy cleats to this one.

-Pipe

5 units UGA -3 @ Tennessee

I know what your eyes have told you so far this season. UGA has looked pedestrian on offense. Gunner can’t throw the ball past the line of scrimmage….Jeez Tennessee scored 72 on ETSU so Joey Aguilar might be a heisman contender. This is on the road at Neyland Stadium. On top of that the betting market has adjusted this number down from -7 to -3.5 or -3 in some books. Every Commentator on YouTube, espn, etc all are taking the Vols…Kirby is washed…Well I like to Zing when everyone is Zanging. I call bs on this narrative. This line was -8.5 a few months ago. Kirby has owned Josh Heupel, limiting the Vols to 17 or less in every matchup between these two coaches. This run and shoot offense can be shut down if you can stop the run with a light box. Did you see the physical freaks that Georgia has in its defensive front 7? In addition, they have 3-4 top 2 round future DBs on this roster. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Georgia will boa constrictor their way to a convincing, low scoring win 27-17. I’m buying this to -3 now before this moves back to -4 or 4.5.

GL

4 units Arkansas +7 buying the 1/2 point

Lane and the Rebs extracted some revenge last week vs Kentucky, but there are some injury concerns after a physical Sec opener. Young QB Simmons has some dings, and is a game time decision. Arkansas QB Talan Green is more experienced, and the hogs are off to a hot start. This is a revenge spot for Arkansas so I expect the Rebs to get their best effort. I think Rebs kick a late fg to win this by 3…27-24. Play Ark +7

3 units Temple +24 vs Oklahoma

This is a weird one regarding matchup, location, and scenario. The Sooners find themselves on the road after a national spotlight game vs Michigan. With Auburn on deck this is an old school look ahead spot. On the flip side, temple is 2-0 and has looked good against lesser opponents. I expect a sleepy start where the Sooners just want to win and get out of Philly injury free. 27-14. Play Temple +24.

Netted .7 units last weekend after going 1-1-1.

NCAAF 9-5-1 +14 units

5 units Oregon -21 first half vs Oregon st

You don’t want to over think the room in this one. This is a rivalry game that will have the duck’s attention. Ore leads the nation in first half scoring averaging 41 points. With the Penn at state game looming, I expect Dan to pull the starters early after jumping up in the first half. Oregon state is averaging giving up over 38 points per game. Give me the ducks -21 first half.

4 units Temple +24.5

Yes I know didn’t we try this last week? Yes…and once again this is a situational play. The Jackets are coming off a hard fought win off a late field goal fire drill. Now in the words of Nick Saban they need to avoid the rat poison. This is a text book let down spot. It wouldn’t surprise me if tech rest Haynes King too. Dispute being 3-0, tech has been hit by the turnover bug. I don’t think temple will beat themselves, and will keep this inside 24.5. Play Temple +24.5

3 units SMU @ TCU over 63.5

TCU is averaging nearly 45 points per game through three weeks, with over 500 yards of offense per game. They push tempo, finish drives, and have shown no issue turning possessions into touchdowns. Similarly, SMU is also built to score fast. They hung 45 points in a shootout vs Baylor and are averaging over 30 points per game this season. When defense is optional I prefer to root for points, and that’s what we will do in this one. Take over 63.5.

4 units Notre dame -24.5

After two hard fought losses vs Miami and Texas Am, Notre Dame finds themselves 0-2 with their backs against the wall. They will need to win out to make the playoff conversation. Notre Dame beat Purdue 66-7 in their last meeting (2024) and dominated in all phases — total yards, rushing, scoring. This is a get right spot for the Irish and a bad situational spot for the Boilermakers. Take ND -24.5

3 units Illinois +7 @ Indiana

The Fighting Illini are 3-0 entering this game, with convincing wins over Western Illinois (38-0), Duke (45-19), Western Michigan (52-3). Their QB Luke Altmeyer has thrown 8 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions so far. Indiana’s ground game is going to be missing Lee Beebe Jr., who suffered a season-ending knee injury. He was a major weapon. I’m just not convinced Indiana is as good as they were last year, and this will stay close to the end. I’m buying the half to 7 for some extra insurance. Take Illinois +7

GL

NCAAF 11-8-1 +9.9 units

Passing tonight, but I lean Virginia and will be rooting for some ACC chaos. Back in the morning for Saturdays

This is the perfect time of the season to be playing the short home dogs:

4% Arkansas +4.5 vs Notre Dame

Yes I know the Hogs lost to Memphis last week on the road. Honestly it didn’t surprise me because that’s Arkansas MO under Sam Pittman. They seem to find was to lose as a favorite, and are one of the best performers ATS as a home dog. I expect a shootout because ND cannot stop anyone through the air. Their 4th ranked passing defense from last season is ranked in the 130s. I expect a close game with a late fg to push the tide either way. Take Arkansas +4.5.

5% Miss st +7.5 vs Tennessee

As Miss St proved to the Sun devils a few weeks ago, Starkville is a tough place to win as a road favorite. The cowbells will be ringing when the Vols come to town for Joey Aguilar’s first sec road game, the bulldog run defense is strong enough to keep this a tight game. I think the Vols will struggle early to get their offense going. On the flip side Miss st offense will make enough big plays to keep them in this one. I think Tennessee finds a way to win it late fg. Give me Miss st offense +7.5

3% Illinois +7 vs USC

I know what happened last week. Do I think Illinois is better than the Trojans?? Heck no, but sometimes you get uncharacteristically good or bad performances from 18 year old kids. This is a pure situational play against USC. Cross country trip from the west coast, and a noon start. Good spread value after illinois got blasted. Statistically big 10 west coast teams have struggled coming to the east coast.

4% Uga Bama over 54

Both offenses have shown they can move the ball in bunches, and while their defenses are strong, they’ve yielded big plays this season. The matchup pits explosive potential (via both aerial and ground attacks) against defenses that struggle at times to contain tempo. Georgia’s home crowd should amplify everything, forcing offenses to push pace in response. In a game this competitive, both teams will need to score to stay in it — making the over well within reach. Play over 54.

GL

NCAAF 13-10-1 +9.1 units

4% Vandy/Bama over 55.5

Alabama’s offense has found rhythm, averaging over 440 yards per game and facing a Vanderbilt defense that struggles to contain explosive plays. The Tide should score in bunches, while Vandy’s up-tempo, pass-heavy catch-up game adds late scoring potential. With Alabama likely hitting the 40s and Vanderbilt chipping in during garbage time, this total sits a few points too low. Play over 55.5

3% Florida +5.5.

Florida catches some value here at +5.5 against a Texas team that’s been inconsistent away from home. Can the Gators’ run game and short passing attack can control tempo and keep Texas’s explosive offense on the sideline? Can Arch manning flex on a team with similar athletes, or just schools for the deaf and blind? Florida’s defense matches up well in the trenches and should generate enough pressure to keep this inside one score. I think it’s a low scoring slugfest that’s decided by a fg late. Take Florida +5.5

4% Florida state +4 vs Miami

This massive sunshine state rivalry will be Miami’s first true road game of the year. Miami comes in looking like one of the better teams in the country. The biggest advantage for the canes is the size and physicality on the lines of scrimmage. To counter that Gus Malzahn will need to be on his “A” game scheming it up on offense for the Noles. I think Carson Beck is due for a 2 interception performance. This needs to be higher scoring for the noles to pull the upset. I think it’s close all the way and Norvell pulls the home upset straight up. Give me FSU +4

3% Miss st +16.5 @ Tex AM

This number is inflated after A&M’s recent win, creating a strong buy point on the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s defense is better than the market gives credit for, and their offense has quietly stabilized with more balance. Texas A&M hasn’t shown the consistency to cover big SEC numbers, and this spot screams overreaction. I expect this to turn into a shootout. Take the bulldogs and the points +16.5.

5% Louisville -6.5 vs Virginia

This is a classic letdown spot for Virginia after their emotional upset of Florida State last week, and the market hasn’t fully priced in the regression risk. Louisville matches up perfectly here — their defensive front can bottle up Virginia’s run game, and the Cardinals’ balanced offense should consistently win early downs. With focus, rest, and home-field advantage, Louisville is positioned to control the tempo from start to finish. Take the cards -6.5.

NCAAF 14-14-1 (-5.5 units)

Looking to bounce back after a rough week.

5 units Bama -3 @ Mizzou

Alabama comes into this game battle-tested with quality wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Missouri’s schedule hasn’t yet featured the same level of competition. The Tide’s offense ranks in the top 15 nationally in efficiency (especially through the air) and that’s suggests trouble for a weak Mizzou secondary. The tide’s defense excels at limiting points per drive — a formula that can limit Missouri’s explosiveness. The betting market has moved toward Bama (opening line dropped to –3) — suggesting sharper money is backing the road favorite. Did you know Alabama is 4–1 ATS in its last five matchups with Missouri? Roll tide -3.

4 units Texas Pk vs Oklahoma

Yes I know Texas lost to Florida on the road…I know that Arch Manning is struggling…I know that Texas is 3-2 and the Sooners are undefeated. The public has hammered the Sooners even though Mateer might not play. The Longhorns need this game, and I expect them to come out fighting like a desperate wounded animal. This one will come down to a late fg, and my money is on Sark to find a way. Give me the horns pk in a 20-17 slugfest.

3 units Indiana @ Oregon over 53.5

Pretty simple in this one…Both Indiana and Oregon bring in high-octane, balanced offenses into this game. Indiana is averaging 47.8 points per game, and Oregon 46.6 per game respectively. The total has gone over in 12 of Indiana’s last 17 games, and in 6 of Oregon’s last 8. Finally, both teams are coming off a bye, giving them time to prepare aggressive game scripts. Don’t over think the room and take over 53.5 in this one.

5 units UGA -3.5 @ Auburn

Georgia –3.5 looks like the sharp side here. The Bulldogs have been solid on both sides of the ball this season, averaging over 430 yards of offense per game while holding opponents to just 18.4 points per contest. That’s a level of balance Auburn hasn’t come close to matching. Auburn’s offense under Hugh Freeze continues to sputter — inconsistent quarterback play, a predictable run-heavy scheme, and poor third-down efficiency have kept them from competing with elite teams. Meanwhile, Georgia has covered four of the last five meetings in this rivalry and has outscored Auburn by an average of two touchdowns in that span. With a clear coaching edge, deeper roster, and proven ability to dominate late, UGA should comfortably cover the short number on the road.

3 units Florida +7.5 @ Texas AM

The Gators rose from the dead last week beating Texas at home. With the return of Dallas Wilson on the outside, and a new focus on running the ball suddenly the Gator offense looks dangerous. The play action game takes the pressure off DJ Lagway as well. Tex AM comes into this one undefeated, but they are entering uncomfortable territory. The Aggies are now top 5 and have all the pressure and expectations. I think they find a way to win late with a fg, but fail to cover the 7.5 spread. Take Florida +7.5.

GL

NCAAF 14-14-1 (-5.5 units)

Looking to bounce back after a rough week.

5 units Bama -3 @ Mizzou

Alabama comes into this game battle-tested with quality wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Missouri’s schedule hasn’t yet featured the same level of competition. The Tide’s offense ranks in the top 15 nationally in efficiency (especially through the air) and that’s suggests trouble for a weak Mizzou secondary. The tide’s defense excels at limiting points per drive — a formula that can limit Missouri’s explosiveness. The betting market has moved toward Bama (opening line dropped to –3) — suggesting sharper money is backing the road favorite. Did you know Alabama is 4–1 ATS in its last five matchups with Missouri? Roll tide -3.

4 units Texas Pk vs Oklahoma

Yes I know Texas lost to Florida on the road…I know that Arch Manning is struggling…I know that Texas is 3-2 and the Sooners are undefeated. The public has hammered the Sooners even though Mateer might not play. The Longhorns need this game, and I expect them to come out fighting like a desperate wounded animal. This one will come down to a late fg, and my money is on Sark to find a way. Give me the horns pk in a 20-17 slugfest.

3 units Indiana @ Oregon over 53.5

Pretty simple in this one…Both Indiana and Oregon bring in high-octane, balanced offenses into this game. Indiana is averaging 47.8 points per game, and Oregon 46.6 per game respectively. The total has gone over in 12 of Indiana’s last 17 games, and in 6 of Oregon’s last 8. Finally, both teams are coming off a bye, giving them time to prepare aggressive game scripts. Don’t over think the room and take over 53.5 in this one.

5 units UGA -3.5 @ Auburn

Georgia –3.5 looks like the sharp side here. The Bulldogs have been solid on both sides of the ball this season, averaging over 430 yards of offense per game while holding opponents to just 18.4 points per contest. That’s a level of balance Auburn hasn’t come close to matching. Auburn’s offense under Hugh Freeze continues to sputter — inconsistent quarterback play, a predictable run-heavy scheme, and poor third-down efficiency have kept them from competing with elite teams. Meanwhile, Georgia has covered four of the last five meetings in this rivalry and has outscored Auburn by an average of two touchdowns in that span. With a clear coaching edge, deeper roster, and proven ability to dominate late, UGA should comfortably cover the short number on the road.

3 units Florida +7.5 @ Texas AM

The Gators rose from the dead last week beating Texas at home. With the return of Dallas Wilson on the outside, and a new focus on running the ball suddenly the Gator offense looks dangerous. The play action game takes the pressure off DJ Lagway as well. Tex AM comes into this one undefeated, but they are entering uncomfortable territory. The Aggies are now top 5 and have all the pressure and expectations. I think they find a way to win late with a fg, but fail to cover the 7.5 spread. Take Florida +7.5.

GL

NCAAF 16-16-2 (-3.1 units)

With the canes going down it looks like we might be in store for a wild Saturday. Selections to follow.

4 units GT +3 @ Duke

The jackets come into this one with a clear path to the Acc title game. One might argue this will be their toughest Acc game left on the schedule. I think the book makers are doing Brent Key a favor. With Duke being the short favorite Key and his staff have had plenty of bulletin board material to keep their team motivated. Georgia tech thrives in the underdog situation, and sometimes shows up unprepared when the favorite. On the other side you have to wonder if Manny Diaz to Penn state rumors have been a distraction. The key to this game will be turnovers. Duke’s results have been heavily influenced by the turnover margin. If GT wins that then they cruise in this game. Give me GT +3 in a 28-24 game.

3 units South Carolina +5 vs Oklahoma

I feel like this is the classic double bubble burst spot for Oklahoma. Prime position for another let down after losing by double digits to Texas. Sometimes undefeated teams deflate completely after losing their first game. Going on the road where a desperate South Carolina team is looking to save their season. John Mateer is still not 100% healthy, and questions swirl as to why he played 2 weeks after his hand surgery. The reality of the difficultly of the remainder of the Sooner schedule is about to slap Venables in the face…starting with at 20-17 win by the gamecocks. Take South Carolina +5

5 units UGA -7 vs Ole Miss

Wrong matchup at the wrong time for Lane and the Rebs today. Revenge spot for Kirby and the dogs after losing to Ole Miss 28-10 in Oxford last year. Although Ole Miss Qb Chambless has played well, this will be his first sec road game start. Lane is one of the best at talking to the Qb in the headset pre snap, and a well lubricated crowd will disrupt that. The main difference between these two teams this year is that Ole Miss does not have the same caliber of players on the lines of scrimmage. Uga spent all off season remaking their identity so they can run the ball, and stop the run. If the Dawgs start hot watch out they might flatten the Rebs. Did you know that the last 17 games where a 6-0 undefeated team was a 7 point or greater dog they are 1-16? Well…make that 1-17 today. Take Georgia -7 in a 34-20 win

4 Units Arkansas +7.5 vs Texas AM

This is a classic look ahead spot for Texas AM with LSU and Mizzou starting next week. They come into this game 6-0 and flying high. Now they have to play under pressure on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Newly deputized coach Bobby Patrino is back coaching is first home game at Arkansas. He will have this team motivated and ready to play spoiler. We are watching the weather which could add to the funkiness in this one. I think AM barely escapes, but don’t be surprised if the razorbacks win this one straight. Thinking this is 24-21 game where AM kicks a late fg.

3 units Tenn @ Bama over 58.5

Agh yes for our last selection we have to get in on the 3rd Saturday in October matchup between the Vols and Tide. In recent history defense has been optional…or in some cases non existent. Tennessee brings in the number one offense in the country and inspiring it with a bottom half defense. Deboer and the Tide are about to play their 4th tough game in a row and might have some tired legs. I think this game is a race to 40…and both teams might get there. Play over 58.5

GL

3-2 last weekend cashing our 5 and 4 unit plays

NCAAF 19-18-2 (+3.3 units)

4* Miss st +7.5 vs Texas

The Bulldogs are coming into this game with serious motivation — they’re 0-3 in the Southeastern Conference but have been right there in each loss, most recently falling by just two to Florida Gators. Meanwhile, Texas is far from convincing — while they’re favored and ranked, they’ve struggled to cover as heavy favorites and their inconsistencies are showing. Mississippi State’s defense has taken a step forward, especially in pass coverage (they rank 5th in the SEC in pass defense, and lead the conference in interceptions) which gives them a real chance to slow down Texas’ aerial game. With +7.5 points, you’re getting a cushion if Texas pulls away — but more importantly you’re backing a Bulldogs team with the momentum, the hunger (desparate for an SEC win), and the favorable matchup under the radar. Take Mississippi State +7.5.

5* Mizzou +3 @ Vandy buying the half

Missouri may be getting the short end of the line as a 3-point underdog, but all signs point to value here. The Tigers come in with a potent running game led by Ahmad Hardy — third in the nation in rushing yards — and a defense capable of forcing mistakes when opponents lean on their QB. Vanderbilt is enjoying home-field buzz and has already knocked off high-level opponents — but their recent success could be over-priced here. Missouri owns the series head-to-head, and the Tigers know how to win these spots on the road. With the line at +3, you’re getting near a “pick-’em” but with the hedge tilted in your favor — backing a motivated Missouri squad that matches up well, while not laying points. This is a smart underdog play: take Missouri +3.

3* Washington -3.5 vs Illinois

Washington comes into this contest at home with notable advantages: they’re 5-2 on the season, playing in the familiar confines of Husky Stadium and have shown proper offensive firepower. Illinois, however, while also 5-2, is logging its first road trip in a tough environment and has struggled key moments on the road.The Huskies’ home-field noise and edge in familiarity give them the tilt in a one-score game, and the market line of -3.5 shows Washington being trusted. With Illinois’s profile of being vulnerable away and Washington’s positional strength, taking Washington minus the field goal is a value bet that leans “buy the favorite”. The margin is modest, so you’re getting a decisive look on a small line rather than chasing large spreads. Lay it with the Huskies -3.5

4* Iowa st -2.5 vs BYU

Iowa State steps into this matchup with a clear home-field edge: they’re unbeaten at home this season and get a full week of prep after a bye, while BYU is making a road start that always brings extra risk. It doesn’t hurt that Campbell might unload the clip auditioning for an open head coaching opening. Meanwhile, the Cyclones’ offense is balanced and effective — featuring dual threats in Rocco Becht and Abu Sama — which makes them tough to stop when the crowd is behind them. BYU comes in undefeated and ranked, yet oddsmakers still have Iowa State favored and line-shy suggests value is with the home side at -2.5. In short: you’re getting just a field-goal chalk on a motivated home favorite with favorable match-up conditions — take Iowa State at minus 2.5.

3* Tex am @ LSU under 49

This feels like a game built for the under: LSU’s offense is nowhere near elite, averaging only about 25.6 points per game and ranking 87th nationally in scoring. Meanwhile Texas A&M showed cracks recently — they allowed 42 points and 527 yards to Arkansas; their defense is coming in vulnerable. The projected total sits around 49–49.5, but given LSU’s offensive limitations and the expectation of a more physical, controlled pace (especially in Baton Rouge), the upside for a shoot-out is limited. In short: you’re painting a picture of two strong defenses (or at least one strong + one improving) meeting in a tough environment, where the game script suggests controlled drives rather than fireworks especially if the weather forecast stays bad. Bet under 49.

GL

NCAAF 21-21-2 (-2.9 units)

4 units Texas -3 vs Vandy

Yeah I know I’m seeking revenge vs the dores after last week. I think it’s time for Vandy’s carriage to turn back into a pumpkin. Texas comes into this one with the edge in the trenches and defense — they rank among the nation’s best against the run (allowing just 2.4 yards per carry) and have the speed up front to disrupt Vanderbilt’s rush game. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt boasts a strong record and confidence, but their offensive ceiling is limited on the road, especially against teams that can stop the run and force them into challenging passing situations. The Longhorns also have home-field advantage at a critical juncture of their season — they need this win to stay in contention, and the motivation is high…Take Texas -3.

5 units Tenn -3

Tennessee is coming in with the upper hand: QB Joey Aguilar is lighting it up (over 2,300 yards, 18 TDs) and the Volunteers are playing at home in Neyland Stadium — where they consistently outperform expectations. Josh has no love lost with the Sooners organization, so expect him to want to run it up if possible. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has shown some cracks on offense (just 8 TD passes this season) and struggles protecting the QB — Tennessee’s pass-rush should be able to exploit that. With the line sitting around 3 points, you’re getting a team with both the motivation and matchup advantages — home crowd, offensive momentum, and a favorable spread. Take Tennessee -3.

5 units UGA -7 vs Florida

Well we no longer have to worry about sunbelt Billy. The Gators have to be sour now that prized coach Lane Kiffin is being suited by LSU, the Gators have turned into the preverbal red headed stepchild. UGA steps into this rivalry with the full momentum and profile of a top-five team, sporting a 6-1 record while Florida is only 3-4 and clearly in transition. Meanwhile, Florida’s offense continues to sputter, and they’re dealing with morale and coaching questions after the bye. Georgia’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and exploit mismatch opportunities — especially in a rivalry game where they’ve consistently dominated. I expect the Gators to fight early before the dawgs body bag them in the second half. Take UGA –7.

3 units Cal +6 vs Virginia

Tough spot for the cardiac Cavs on the road in Berkley. California has quietly put together a strong season with a young QB stepping up — Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, while RB Kendrick Raphael provides a steady ground game. Meanwhile Virginia has shown flashes defensively, but has allowed two separate games with 42+ points this season — indicating the Golden Bears likely have enough firepower to cover this line. With the spread at +6, you’re getting a team at home that is on the upswing, against an opponent with more vulnerabilities than the public may realize. Take Cal +6

4 units USC -4.5 @ Nebraska

USC comes in averaging 530 yards per game (1st in FBS) and 42.4 points per game (top 5 nationally). Meanwhile, Nebraska—despite its respectable record—ranks just 101st in rushing offense and is heavily dependent on its passing game and taking advantage of big plays. Nebraska’s defense is outstanding against the pass statistically, but based on completion that may be fraudulent. USC’s aerial attack is elite (1st in passing offense). With the Trojans motivated to stay in Big Ten title contention and facing a Cornhuskers team with offensive limitations, the play is to take USC -4.5.

GL