Thursday NFL and more.........

Lions -3. I think this is a good spot for the lions to bounce back after Thanksgiving staying at home and having a full week to prepare for a Cowboys team that is overvalued right now

Cowboys +3

The Lions secondary is shoddy and Dak can run with the best QBs in the league.

Dallas under 54.5 -113

Since the trades, Dallas has been playing better on defense, they score more at home vs on the road, I don’t think ARSB will play, and if he does, he will be limited, and without him and Laporta, they would rely more on the run, that would shorten the game, also it is a Thursday night game, that usually trends to the under. I just think 54.5 is too many points. Good luck

George Pickens o 81.5 rec yds-111…has hit this mark 3 in a row and 5 of 7…the two times he didn’t he had 79 and 78…Lions defense not showing a pass rush and injuries in the D backfield..Prescott playing like MVP..3 point dogs and indoor stadium looking for Pickens to hit 82

NYR +114

Rangers play way better on the road than at home plus Shesterkin is 5-1-2 with GAA of 1.86 so take NYR more in their comfort zone on the road

Boston under 230.5

Total has gone under in 4 of 5 last Celtic games
Gone under 4 of 5 past times in this series

(Bos) Pritchard under 33.5 P,R,A -106 FD

Overall game total has went up. Public trends show public on the over. Nice fade spot for a low scoring game, even though Wiz D is horrible.

L2 matchups at Wiz the total went nowhere near the current total.

Pritchard avg for P, R, A is only 26 - last game against Wiz only had 25 total

Line seems inflated, even w/ possibly more playing time.

Dallas Cowboys +3
Both of these two teams are in the hunt for NFC wild card. This should be a close game and I will take the 3 points

Boston-9.5 Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.

Dallas +3
Dallas offense has been as hot as anyone o er past few weeks, as they attempt to climb into playoff position.
Detroit has the better overall team when at full strength, but are thin at receiver heading into tonight’s game. I expect Dallas to cover and win outright, in a close game

NHL Bruins +128
NHL Panthers -185

Testing my new NHL model. It won yesterday on the Flyers +116 (posted here yesterday).
My model has a moneyline for Bruins at +100.4 (value at +128)
My model has a moneyline for Panthers at -203.0 (value at -185)

Not official "play" but my line for Kraken is +129.4 (a lot of value at +173). Maybe I'm missing something on this.
Also have Wild at -124.7 (value at -115), Islanders at +146.9 (value at +162), Penguins at +129.4 (value at +139)

Minn over 232.5 both teams will score at ease no defense played here over over over

Dallas lions under 54.5. Insanely high total for TNF. Like this better if lions offensive injured guys don’t play tonight. Think they stick to the run game. Also Dan Campbell continues to go for it on 4th down. He hasn’t converted on 4th down in the past two games. Can lead to long possessions that end with no score.

Lions -3, going to bank on dan Campbell whipping the defence into shape in this must win for Detroit

New Orleans Pelicans +12.5

These teams played two nights ago and it took OT for Minnesota to pull it out. Pelicans haven’t lost of over 12 in the past 5 games and 7 of 8. So, even with their bad record they have not given up on the season and will play hard knowing they could have beat the T-wolves on the road two nights ago.

NHL:

1.5* Colorado -198 (A) 507pm

Colorado is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games.
Colorado is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against NY Islanders.
Colorado is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
NY Islanders are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home.
NY Islanders are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.

1.5* Carolina -218 (H) 507pm

Carolina is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games against Toronto.
Carolina is 8-3-1 at home this season.
Carolina has been home for the last eight days.
Carolina is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games played on a Thursday when playing at home.
Toronto will be playing for the fourth time in seven days.
Toronto is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
Toronto is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing as the underdog.

Detroit-3.5
Not falling for the Cowboys here and don't trust them. Must win for the lions and they show out tonight

NBA

505 LA Lakers +2.5

LA Lakers are 13-7 ATS this season
LA Lakers are 4-1 ATS this season as a road dog
LA Lakers are 11-5 ATS last 16 games
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU last 8 games
Toronto is 10-12 ATS this season
Toronto is 4-5 ATS this season as a home fav
Toronto is 1-5 ATS last 6 games