NFL Playoffs ATS

Since 2017
• Underdogs: 60-38 (61%)
• Underdogs of +3 or fewer: 26-10 (72%)
• Wild Card underdogs: 24-12 (67%)
• Wild Card OVERS: 20-16 (55.6%)

Since 2016
Wild Card HOME underdogs:
6-4 SU / 8-2 ATS

Wild Card Weekend
Referee Assignments

Team Records wi/ Referee

Clete Blakeman
Rams: 4-6 | Panthers: 47

Adrian Hill
Packers: 2- | Bears: 25

Brad Allen
Bills: 9-4 |Jaguars: 6-8

Alan Eck
49ers: 3-6 | Eagles: 81

Ron Torbert
Chargers: 5-7 | Patriots: 7-4

Craig Wrolstad
Texans: 6-5 | Steelers: 8-4

Los Angeles VS Carolina

LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams' last 6 games.
LA Rams is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
LA Rams is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games against Carolina.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games.
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games against LA Rams.
Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home.


Green Bay VS Chicago

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games.
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against Chicago.
Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games.
Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games.
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.

Minnesota VS Cleveland

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Minnesota is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Cleveland.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road.
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games.
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games against Minnesota.


Miami VS Indiana

Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games.
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Indiana.
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games.
Indiana is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 9 games against Miami.


Dallas VS Chicago

Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Chicago.
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games.
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 12 games at home.


Charlotte VS Utah

Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games.
Charlotte is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Charlotte is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against Utah.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Utah's last 18 games.
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 9 games against Charlotte.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games at home.

New York VS Boston

NY Rangers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
NY Rangers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against Boston.
NY Rangers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
NY Rangers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games.
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.


Calgary VS Pittsburgh

Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Calgary is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
Calgary is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games played in January.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games against Calgary.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary.


Dallas VS San Jose

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 7 games.
Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
Dallas is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games against San Jose.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas' last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 7 games.
San Jose is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Jose's last 11 games against Dallas.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Jose's last 8 games at home.


Anaheim VS Buffalo

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Anaheim's last 7 games.
Anaheim is 0-8 SU in its last 8 games.
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Anaheim's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games.
Buffalo is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games.
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Anaheim.


Detroit VS Montreal

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games.
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games.
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Montreal.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games.
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games at home.
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit.


Florida VS Ottawa

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games.
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Florida is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games against Ottawa.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games.
Ottawa is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 8 games against Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home.


Tampa Bay VS Philadelphia

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
Tampa Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games against Philadelphia.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
Philadelphia is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division.


Vancouver VS Toronto

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 9 games.
Vancouver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Vancouver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Toronto.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vancouver's last 11 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games.
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Toronto's last 20 games against Vancouver.
Toronto is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home.

– In the last 28 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 16-12 SU but just 11-17 ATS (39.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

(375) LA RAMS (12-5) at (376) CAROLINA (8-9)
* LA RAMS are 17-8 SU and 18-6 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* CAROLINA is on a 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA is 23-32 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 24-35 ATS (40.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 23-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAR-CAR (o/u at 46.5)

(377) GREEN BAY (9-7) at (378) CHICAGO (11-6)
* GREEN BAY is 25-16-1 ATS (61%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 25-17-1 SU but 16-27 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI)

* CHICAGO is 26-37-1 ATS (41.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 34-46-1 ATS (42.5%) as an underdog since 2019
* CHICAGO is 11-28 SU and 13-26 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

* GREEN BAY is 29-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-CHI (o/u at 44.5)

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Carolina: 16-24 SU and 15-25 ATS in rematches since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
– Chicago: 6-16 ATS in the last 22
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
– Carolina: 3-10 ATS in the last 13 at home
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
– Chicago: 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 as host
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
– LA Rams: 11-5 SU and 15-1 ATS in the last 16 on the road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
– Green Bay: 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 revenge attempts
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI)

Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
– Carolina: 5-12 ATS in the last 17 after beating opponent in the initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)

(375) LA RAMS at (376) CAROLINA
* Home teams are 9-3-1 ATS in hte last 13 of the LAR-CAR series
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)

(377) GREEN BAY at (378) CHICAGO
* Favorites are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GB-CHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI)

Saturday’s games
Rams (-10.5) @ Panthers
Rams (12-5)
Rams are in playoffs for 7th time in McVay’s nine years as coach.
Rams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine playoff games.
This year, Rams are 8-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Seven of Rams’ last nine wins were by 14+ points.
QB Stafford is 51-30 as the Rams’ starter (5-2 in playoffs).
McVay is 100-62 as an NFL head coach (8-5 in playoffs).

Rams are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite this year.
This year, Rams were minus-5 in turnovers in losses, +16 in wins.
Over is 6-0 in Rams’ last six games.
Rams went over team total in 12 of last 16 games.
Rams are 5-4 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.

Panthers (8-9)
Carolina is in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Carolina is 5-1 when they score 27+ points, 3-8 when they don’t
Panthers are 7-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Carolina is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-9 in losses
QB Young is 14-30 as an NFL starter (0-0 in playoffs).
Canales is 13-21 as a head coach (0-0 in playoffs).

Panthers are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog this season.
Carolina gained less than 300 yards in 8 of last 10 games.
This year, Carolina is 6-0 when they score 23+ points.
All-time, Panthers are 5-2 in home playoff games.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Carolina (+10) upset Rams 31-28, six weeks ago.
Panthers were +3 in turnovers in that game.
Rams lost four of last five visits to Charlotte.
Last three years NFL-wide, #4-seed is 5-1 SU/ATS in this round (all underdogs)

Packers (-1.5) @ Bears
Packers (9-7-1)
Green Bay is in playoffs for sixth time in last seven years.
Packers lost last four games overall, by 8-6-13-17 points.
Green Bay is 9-2-1 when it scores 23+ points, 0-5 otherwise.
Green Bay is 4-5-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
LaFleur is 79-45-1 as an NFL head coach (3-5 in playoffs).

QB Love (concussion) missed Green Bay’s last two games.
Love is 1-2 in playoff games.
Packers are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite this year.
Since 2014, Packers are 3-6 in road playoff games.
Last four games, Green Bay is minus-2 in turnovers, gave up 392 ypg.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Bears (11-6)
Chicago lost last two games, by total of 5 points.
Bears won seven of ten, 11 of last 15 games.
Bears are 10-3 scoring 24+ points, 1-3 scoring less.
In wins, Chicago was +24 in turnovers; minus-2 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 11-6 as an NFL head coach (0-0 in playoffs).
QB Williams is 16-18 as an NFL starter (0-0 in playoffs).

Bears are in playoffs for first time since 2020.
Chicago’s last playoff win? 2010.
Chicago is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Chicago is 6-2 SU at home this year.
Bears are 9-1 when they allow less than 27 points.
Bears are 7-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Last five years, #2-seeds are 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS vs #2-seeds in this round.
Teams split two meetings this year; home team won both games.
Overall, Packers won 18 of last 21 series games.

Top Picks from the NFL Betting Splits for Saturday January 10th

4:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 45.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Rams (12-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 37-20 win over the Cardinals, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers (8-9) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Buccaneers 16-14 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 10-point road favorite.
Early action laid the points with the Rams, pushing Los Angeles up from -10 to -10.5. However, on gameday we are seeing some respected buyback on the Panthers plus the hook, as most shops are juicing up Carolina +10.5 (-115 or -120) and a few others are falling back down to +10.

At DraftKings, the Rams are receiving 41% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars. However, at Circa the Panthers are taking in 41% of spread bets but a whopping 85% of spread dollars, indicating heavy smart money grabbing the points with the home dog out in Vegas.
Playoff dogs are 60-38 ATS (61%) with a 19% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 27-15 ATS (64%) with a 25% ROI since 2017.
Wild Card dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Panthers here, are 21-9 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017.
Bryce Young is 12-6 ATS (67%) with a 27% ROI as a home dog in his career.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 46.5 to 45.5, with some shops touching 45 on gameday.
This downward movement is notable because the public is pounding the over (66% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 40% of bets and 75% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Wild Card unders are 25-17 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2017. Outdoor playoff unders are 40-33 (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with 10-15 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers.
When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a playoff game, the under is 12-7 (63%) with a 20% ROI since 2017.

8 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 44.5) at Chicago Bears

The Packers (9-7-1) have dropped four straight and just fell to the Vikings 13-3 but managed to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Bears (11-6) have lost two in a row and just came up short against the Lions 19-16, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening the Bears a slight 1-point home favorite.
Respected money has sided with Green Bay, driving the Packers up to a 1.5-point road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Packers are only receiving 32% of spread bets and 38% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
However, Vegas is telling a different story as Circa is showing 69% of spread bets and a hefty 87% of spread dollars on Chicago plus the points.
Wild Card dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Bears here, are 21-9 ATS (70%) with a 36% ROI since 2017. Short playoff dogs +3 or less are 26-10 ATS (72%) with a 41% ROI since 2017.

Chicago has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Primetime dogs went 32-24 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and have gone 11-8 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI in the postseason since 2020.
Those looking to back the Bears but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could look to target Chicago in a classic “Wong Teaser.” By teasing Chicago up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

We’ve also seen a steady dose of respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, 45% of bets and 47% of dollars are on the under. At Circa, 63% of bets and 72% of dollars are on the under. Both books are showing a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather is also a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 30s/high 20s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH along with possibly some snow showers.
When the total falls 2-points or more, the under is 12-6 (67%) with a 29% ROI in the postseason since 2017.