· Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) in their last 12 conference championship games.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+4.5 vs NE), SEATTLE (-2.5 vs LAR)

· Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 14-5-1 (73.7%) rate since ’02.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-DEN (o/u at 42.5)

* NFL teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 23-9 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in their last 33 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 22-27 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

* Under the total is 10-5 in the Rams-Seahawks set at Seattle since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

Home Dogs of 4+ points in the playoffs:
9-0 over the last 50 years

Los Angeles Rams:
35-21-1 ATS against NFC West opponents unde Sen MClay

Seattle Seahawks:
7-0 SU in rematches under Mike Macdonald since 024

· There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ENGLAND

· Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in their last 25 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· Teams that won by 7-points or less in the divisional round are just 4-18 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) in their last 22 road conference title game appearances, including Buffalo’s loss at Kansas City last season.
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS

· In intra-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· Home teams are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) in the last 19 AFC clashes, and 12-6 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) in the last 18 NFC tilts.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER

· Since the 2004 season, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) when playing teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

· Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5-#7, have gone just 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS (40%) dating back to 1996 in the conference title games, including just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS the last 14 seasons.
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS

· Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 14-5-1 (73.7%) rate since 2002.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NE-DEN

· #1 seeds are on a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) surge in conference championship games when hosting any team worse than a #2 seed.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

· Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) in the last 12.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

· When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) over the last 17 seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS run since 2016.
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

– In the last 30 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 18-12 SU but just 13-17 ATS (43.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 16-21 SU and 15-22 ATS (40.5%) in their last 37 playoff tries.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE

Team statistical betting systems

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 22-27 SU and 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 34-39 SU but 43-28-2 ATS (60.6%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 24-7 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SEATTLE

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 7-25 SU and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS

First-time head coaches

– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks, and are currently on a 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) run over the last seven seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE

(101) NEW ENGLAND (16-3) at (102) DENVER (15-3)
* NEW ENGLAND is 37-7 SU and 33-11 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-4.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 108-75 Under the total (59%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-DEN (o/u at 42.5)

(103) LA RAMS (14-5) at (104) SEATTLE (15-3)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 40-66 SU and 40-64 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
LA Rams: 12-5 SU and 15-2 ATS in L17 on road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)

(101) NEW ENGLAND at (102) DENVER
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and ATS in the Patriots-Broncos series since November 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+4.5 vs NE)

(103) LA RAMS at (104) SEATTLE
* Underdogs are 1-7 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAR-SEA divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at SEA)
* Under the total is 10-5 in the set at Seattle as well since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

New England VS Denver

New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
New England is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Denver.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games.
Denver is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games against New England.
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home.


Los Angeles VS Seattle

LA Rams is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams' last 8 games.
LA Rams is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against Seattle.
Seattle is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
Seattle is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games against LA Rams.
Seattle is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home.

Sacramento VS Detroit

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games.
Sacramento is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Detroit.
Sacramento is 0-8 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 10 games.
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games against Sacramento.


Denver VS Memphis

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games.
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Memphis.
Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games against Memphis.
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis' last 6 games.
Memphis is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis' last 7 games against Denver.


Golden State VS Minnesota

Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games.
Golden State is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Minnesota.
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games against Golden State.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 12 games at home.


New Orleans VS San Antonio

New Orleans is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans' last 12 games.
New Orleans is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games.
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against San Antonio.
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Antonio's last 12 games.
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.


Toronto VS Oklahoma City

Toronto is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games.
Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games.
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against Oklahoma City.
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games.
Oklahoma City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games against Toronto.


Brooklyn VS Los Angeles

Brooklyn is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games.
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against LA Clippers.
Brooklyn is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against LA Clippers.
Brooklyn is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
LA Clippers is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games.
LA Clippers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Clippers' last 15 games against Brooklyn.
LA Clippers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

Colorado VS Toronto

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games.
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Colorado is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road.
Colorado is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games.
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games against Colorado.
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home.


New Jersey VS Seattle

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games.
New Jersey is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
New Jersey is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games against Seattle.
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 6 games against New Jersey.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games at home.
Seattle is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.


Pittsburgh VS Vancouver

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Pittsburgh is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against Vancouver.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
Vancouver is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
Vancouver is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.


Anaheim VS Calgary

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games.
Anaheim is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
Anaheim is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Calgary.
Anaheim is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games.
Calgary is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games.
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Calgary is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Anaheim.

St. Francis-Pennsylvania VS New Haven

St. Francis-Pennsylvania is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Francis-Pennsylvania's last 5 games.
St. Francis-Pennsylvania is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
St. Francis-Pennsylvania is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Haven's last 5 games.
New Haven is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Haven's last 7 games against an opponent in the Northeast conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Haven's last 7 games played in January.


Florida Atlantic VS South Florida

Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games.
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against South Florida.
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
South Florida is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Florida Atlantic.


Chicago State VS Mercyhurst

Chicago State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago State's last 6 games.
Chicago State is 0-9 SU in its last 9 games.
Chicago State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Mercyhurst is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mercyhurst's last 6 games.
Mercyhurst is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Mercyhurst is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home.


Oregon VS Washington

Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oregon's last 7 games.
Oregon is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Washington.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games.
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games against Oregon.


USC VS Wisconsin

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of USC's last 6 games.
USC is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games.
USC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of USC's last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 6 games.
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Wisconsin is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home.


Southern Illinois VS Evansville

Southern Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Southern Illinois' last 9 games.
Southern Illinois is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
Southern Illinois is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against Evansville.
Evansville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Evansville's last 6 games.
Evansville is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games.
Evansville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home.

NFL conference championship betting trends​

Patriots (-4½, 42½) at Broncos: This will be the sixth playoff meeting between the Broncos and Patriots, with the home team winning and covering the previous five. Denver is 4-1 in those games, most recently the 2015 AFC title game. New England has won and covered five straight overall and enters on a 15-1 straight up and 13-3 against the spread uptick. The Patriots won all eight away games this season while going 7-1 ATS and are on over runs of 6-1 and 10-3. Denver has won 14 of its past 15 games and has covered six of its past nine at Mile High. The Broncos also covered their past four as underdogs and covered both games as home underdogs. Denver is on a 5-2 over run. Edge: Over and slight to Patriots.


Rams at Seahawks (-2½, 46½): The teams split two close meetings. Both were decided on the final play, with the home team winning each but failing to cover narrow spreads. The combined score of their two meetings was Rams 58, Seahawks 57. Los Angeles and coach Sean McVay had won six of the previous nine meetings at Seattle. McVay is 5-3 straight up and ATS as a playoff visitor with the Rams. The under is on a 7-3 run in the series, though the last matchup Dec. 18 at Seattle went over. Los Angeles went 5-5 ATS as a visitor and 1-1 ATS as an underdog, with the loss on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Eagles on the game’s final play. Los Angeles is on a 7-2 spread run as an underdog overall. The Rams are also on a 7-1 over run. Seattle has won eight straight and 12 of 13, though it’s 5-4 ATS at home. The Seahawks are on a 6-2 over run at home. Edge: Rams and over.

Weekend football predictions: Pro sports bettors pick NFL playoff games​
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

A message of hope for Denver Broncos fans and a shot at the New England Patriots.

That’s what former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles posted on X after the Patriots advanced to the AFC title game against a Broncos team reeling from the loss of starting quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending injury.


“A positive note going into the game versus the Patriots is that they struggle against backup QBs in championship-type games,” wrote Foles (@NickFoles).

Foles famously replaced injured Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz late in the 2017 season en route to earning Super Bowl MVP honors after leading Philadelphia to its first Super Bowl win in a 41-33 upset of the Patriots.

Former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham will start in place of Nix in Sunday’s game at Denver, and that’s the main reason the Broncos are 4½-point home underdogs.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw thinks oddsmakers overadjusted the line and bet on Denver +6, though he still recommends a play at +4½.

“They basically made an 8-point adjustment between Nix and Stidham, and I don’t believe that’s justified. I made New England like 3, 3½,” he said. “It’s a tough game. Denver has the better defense. New England has a way better offense, especially now with an unproven quarterback. But it’s been done before.

“Sean Payton’s an excellent coach. I think it will be a close game.”

Home underdogs of four points or more in the NFL playoffs are 10-0 against the spread with six outright wins over the past 50 years, according to Sports Odds History.

CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall and “Dr. Alan” Dumond, 3-1 ATS on his postseason plays in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also made the Broncos their best bet of the conference championships.

“The prevailing narrative coming into this game is that the Broncos have no chance to win this game due to quarterback Bo Nix being out with an injury,” Dumond said. “However, the Broncos have a strong home-field advantage, and their defense led the NFL with 68 sacks, was No. 2 in fewest total yards and was No. 3 in fewest points allowed.”

Marshall noted that Payton’s backups have always performed well dating to his days with the New Orleans Saints, and he’s also banking on Denver’s defense to disrupt Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye.

“Denver’s NFL-best pass rush is likely to get Maye off script and who, for all his mobility, displayed a surprising lack of pocket presence last week versus Houston,” Marshall said. “A mistake-free game from Stidham, and Vance Joseph’s defense producing a key takeaway or two, would be a recipe for a Denver upset.”

Pro sports bettor Scott Pritchard made the Broncos-Patriots over 42½ his best bet.

“Home team controls the tempo, and the fact is there were (798) total yards racked up in Denver last week,” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com).

Here is a best bet on the NFC title game:

SEAHAWKS (-2)​

Whitelaw said he likes the Seahawks more than he likes the Broncos.

“I took Denver plus the points because of the number. It was high,” he said. “But Seattle, I actually like on a lot of fundamentals. It’s the Rams’ third consecutive road game. The Rams played a very physical game last week, and now they’ve got to travel again.

“Seattle was at home and didn’t get tested. They got to relax a little bit. And I like to bet the better defensive team, and Seattle is clearly the better defensive team.”

Pro bettor Cris Zeniuk also likes the Seahawks ATS, but prefers to bet Seattle on the money line (-140).

“The model likes Seattle by more than a field goal, so lots of value,” he said. “The Rams have played Seattle tough, but they seem to be running on fumes a bit, as they have had one of the worst defenses over the last quarter of the season, and Matthew Stafford has not been quite as sharp as he started.

“Seattle is well rounded. The only obstacle is going to be their own mistakes, which I feel they will avoid in front of home cooking.”

Sunday’s games
Patriots (-4.5) @ Broncos
Patriots (16-3)
Patriots are 15-1 SU/13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
Last four games, New England allowed 10-10-3-16 points.
Last three games, Patriots have 13 sacks.
QB Maye is 19-12 as an NFL starter (2-0 in playoffs).
Vrabel is 72-51 as an NFL head coach (4-3 in playoffs, 2-1 on road).

Patriots are 10-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
NE is 3-1 ATS this year as a road favorite.
Opponents’ team total: under 15-2 last 17 games
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Patriots are trying to get to their 12th Super Bowl.

Broncos (14-3)
Backup QB Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass this season.
Stidham is 1-3 as an NFL starter (last start/NFL pass in 2023)
Stidham was a backup for the Patriots in 2019/2020.
Broncos won 14 of their last 15 games overall.
Payton is 194-117 as an NFL head coach, 33-20 with Denver.
Payton is 10-9 in playoff games, won Super Bowl 16 years ago.

Denver is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Underdogs covered eight of their last ten games.
In their losses, Denver allowed 29-23-34 points.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Denver is 12-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Denver is 10-3 in last 13 home playoff games.
Denver is 9-1 when they score more than 20 points.

Teams split last six series games.
Teams also split last six meetings in Denver.
This first time since 2017 a road team is favored in conference title game.
Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Last six years, favorites are 7-4-1 ATS in this round.

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)
Rams (14-5)
Rams scored 34+ points in five of their last seven games.
Rams are 9-5 ATS in their last fourteen games.
This year, Rams are 9-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
QB Stafford is 53-30 as the Rams’ starter (7-2 in playoffs).
McVay is 102-62 as an NFL head coach (10-5 in playoffs).

Rams won last two weeks, by 3-3 points.
Rams are 1-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
This year, Rams are minus-5 in turnovers in losses, +20 in wins.
Over is 7-1 in Rams’ last eight games.
Rams went over team total in 13 of last 18 games.
Seven of Rams’ last eleven wins were by 14+ points.

Seahawks (15-3)
Seahawks are 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS in their last eight games.
Last three games, Seahawks allowed 10-3-6 points.
Seahawks won 11 of their last 12 home playoff games.
Darnold is 50-42 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
MacDonald is 25-10 as a head coach (1-0 in playoffs).

Seattle’s losses this year were by 4-3-2 points.
Seattle is 5-3 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Seattle is 6-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Seahawks went over their team total 12 of last 17 games.
Opponents’ team total: under 12-5-1.

Teams split couple of close games this year.
Rams won 21-19 at home, lost 38-37 at Seattle.
Teams split last eight meetings in Seattle.
Under is 8-3 in last 11 meetings.
Last six years, favorites are 7-4-1 ATS in this round.