Thursday’s games
Ohio State (-2.5) vs TCU (@ Greenville, SC)
Ohio State (21-12)
Buckeyes won four of their last five games.
Ohio State finished in 8th place in the Big 18.
Buckeyes are 8-2 in non-conference games.

Buckeyes have #18 eFG% in country.
Ohio State is 5-10 vs teams ranked in top 50.
UMBC is #15 teams on defensive boards.

KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 251
Experience: 40
Continuity: 24

Buckeyes are in NCAA’s for first time since 2022.

TCU (23-10)
Horned Frogs won nine of their last eleven games.
TCU finished sixth in the 16-team Big XII.
TCU is 10-3 in non-conference games.

Horned Frogs force turnovers 19.7% of time (#31)
TCU is 7-6 vs teams in the top 50
You’re reading armadillosports.com
TCU is #63 team on offensive boards.

KenPom rating: 43
Tempo: 159
Experience: 101
Continuity: 191

TCU is in the NCAA’s for fourth time in five years (2-1 in first round).

Nebraska (-13.5) vs Troy (@ Oklahoma City)
Nebraska (26-6)
Nebraska is 6-6 in last 12 games, after a 20-0 start.
Cornhuskers tied for 2nd in the Big 18.
Nebraska is 11-0 in non-conference games.

50.7% of Nebraska’s shots are 3-pointers (#11).
Nebraska gets 40.9% of its points on 3’s (#12)
Last three years, #4-seeds are 8-4 ATS in the first round.

KenPom rating: 14
Tempo: 218
Experience: 25
Continuity: 165

All-time, Nebraska is 0-8 in NCAA Tournament games; they did win the 16-team Crown tournament in Las Vegas last year.

Troy (23-10)
Trojans won their last four games.
Troy won Sun Belt (#20 league) by a game.
Troy hasn’t played in ten days.

Troy is 5-5 in Division I non-conference games.
Bison is 2-1 vs teams in the top 100 (beat San Diego St, Akron)
Last four years, Sun Belt teams are 3-1 ATS in this round.

KenPom rating: 143
Tempo: 309
Experience: 223
Continuity: 37

Troy is in the NCAA’s for 2nd year in a row; they lost 76-57 as a 14-seed LY.

Louisville (-5.5) vs South Florida (@ Buffalo)
Louisville (23-10)
Cardinals split their last eight games, after a 19-6 start.
Louisville finished 6th in 18-team ACC.
Check status on Louisville star Mikel Brown (missed last four games).

Coach Kelsey has made five NCAA’s; he is 0-5 in first round games.
Louisville is 8-9 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Louisville is shooting 59.7% inside arc (#9)

KenPom rating: 19
Tempo: 62
Experience: 17
Continuity: 183

Louisville made NCAA’s LY, for first time since 2019; their last tourney win was in 2017.

South Florida (25-8)
Bulls won their last eleven games.
USF won AAC (#10 league) by two games.
USF is #7 team in country on offensive boards.

USF coach Hodgson is from western NY, used to be a Buffalo assistant.
Bulls are 1-2 vs teams ranked in the top 50
South Florida is 8-5 in non-conference games.

KenPom rating: 47
Tempo: 15
Experience: 147
Continuity: 272

South Florida is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2012.

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs High Point (@ Portland, OR)
Wisconsin (24-10)
Badgers won five of their last six games.
Wisconsin was 14-6, finished 5th in the Big 18.
Badgers play tempo #104, their fastest pace in last 30 years.

TY, Wisconsin is 14-2 SU vs teams ranked outside top 50.
Last three years, Big 18 teams are 13-9 ATS in first round.
Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 ATS in #5-12 first round games.

KenPom rating: 22
Tempo: 204
Experience: 26
Continuity: 111

Badgers are in NCAA’s for sixth time in seven years.
Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in last seven first round games.

High Point (30-4)
High Point has won its last 14 games.
Panthers played schedule #342.
Best teams High Point beat: #105 Ill-Chicago, #155 Winthrop (2-1)

High Point’s losses were by 17-2-8-17 points.
Panthers force turnovers 21.9% of the time (#5)
Last nine years, Big South teams are 2-7 ATS in first round.
Heard today that High Point’s NIL payroll is $4M, funded by one guy.

KenPom rating: 92
Tempo: 49
Experience: 36
Continuity: 260

High Point was in NCAA’s last year; they lost 75-63 to Purdue, as a 13-seed.

Duke (-27.5) vs Siena (@ Greenville, SC)
Duke (32-2)
Blue Devils won their last 11 games.
Duke is 5-3 ATS in their last eight games.
Duke won ACC (#4 league) by two games.

Duke has #13 eFG%, #12 eFG% defense in the country.
Duke is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100 (six wins by 24+ points).
Blue Devils are shooting 60.8% inside arc (#8)

KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 287
Experience: 308
Continuity: 169

Coach Scheyer is 3-0 ATS in first round games.

Siena (23-10)
Saints won their last four games after a 2-4 skid.
Siena finished third in the MAAC (#25 league).
Opponents are shooting 48.2% inside arc (#47)

Last five years, #16-seeds are 9-11 ATS in the first round
Siena played schedule #347; they lost by 21 to Indiana, their only top 100 tilt.
Last 3 years, MAAC teams lost in first round by 24-34-44 points.

KenPom rating: 192
Tempo: 319
Experience: 248
Continuity: 26

Siena is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2010.

Vanderbilt (-11.5) vs McNeese State
Vanderbilt (26-8)
Vanderbilt is 10-8 in their last 18 games, after a 16-0 start.
Vandy was 11-7 (T4th) in SEC (#1 league)
Commodores lost SEC title game Sunday, in their home town.

Vandy has #36 eFG% in the country.
Commodores are 14-1 vs teams ranked outside top 50.
Vandy gets 21.5% of its points on foul line (#92)

KenPom rating: 12
Tempo: 98
Experience: 18
Continuity: 95

LY, Vandy made NCAA’s for first time since 2017 (lost 59-56 to Saint Mary’s)

McNeese State (28-5)
Cowboys won their last ten games.
McNeese finished 2nd in Southland (#18 league).
McNeese is 9-2 in non-league games (non-league schedule #22)

Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 ATS in #5-12 first round games.
Cowboys are 3-3 vs teams in the top 100
Southland teams are 5-2 ATS in last seven first round games.

KenPom rating: 68
Tempo: 246
Experience: 77
Continuity: 171

McNeese is in NCAA’s for third year in row; they upset Clemson LY.

Michigan State (-16.5) vs North Dakota State
Michigan State (24-8)
Michigan State lost its last two games, giving up 90-88 points.
Spartans were 15-5 (T2nd) in Big 18 (#2 league).
Michigan State is best rebounding team in country.

Retrievers have played the easiest schedule in the country.
Michigan State is 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Last six years, #3-seeds are 16-8 ATS in the first round.

KenPom rating: 9
Tempo: 252
Experience: 197
Continuity: 51

Last four years, Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their first round games.

North Dakota State (27-7)
Bison won four in row, 18 of last 20 games.
ND State won Summit (#21 league) by two games.
ND State is 7-5 in Division I non-conference games.

ND State is 7-5 in Division I non-conference games.
Bison is 1-2 vs teams ranked in the top 150
Last four years, Summit teams are 0-4 ATS in this round.

KenPom rating: 113
Tempo: 237
Experience: 208
Continuity: 219

North Dakota State is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2019.

Arkansas (-15.5) vs Hawaii
Arkansas (26-8)
Razorbacks won their last five games (2 in overtime).
Arkansas was 13-5 (T2nd) in SEC (#1 league).
Razorbacks won SEC tournament Sunday afternoon.

Arkansas is 10-3 in non-league games (all 3 losses to top 10 teams)
Razorbacks are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Last three years, #4-seeds are 8-4 ATS in the first round.

KenPom rating: 15
Tempo: 20
Experience: 140
Continuity: 91

Arkansas is in NCAA’s for 5th time in six years (2 Sweet 16’s/2 Elite 8’s since ’21)

Hawaii (24-8)
Hawaii won six of their last seven games.
Hawaii finished 2nd in Big West (#11 league).
Rainbows have #16 eFG% defense in country.

Hawaii is 8-2 in non-conference games (non-conf seed #364).
Hawaii is 1-1 vs teams in the top 100
Last 10 years, Big West teams are 6-4 ATS in this round.

KenPom rating: 108
Tempo: 61
Experience: 106
Continuity: 149

Hawaii is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2016.

North Carolina (-2.5) vs VCU (@ Greenville, SC)
North Carolina (24-8)
Tar Heels lost last two games, are 5-4 in last nine games.
UNC tied for 4th in the ACC (#4 league).
Big man Caleb Wilson (thumb) is out.

Tar Heels are 12-1 in non-conference games.
North Carolina is 7-6 against top 50 teams.
North Carolina is #344 in country at forcing turnovers.

KenPom rating: 29
Tempo: 143
Experience: 220
Continuity: 263

North Carolina is in NCAA’s for fourth time in five years; they split last four first round games.

VCU (27-7)
VCU won six in a row, 16 of last 17 games.
VCU tied for 1st with St Louis in A-14 (#7 league).
Rams get 23% of points on foul line (#44)

VCU is 9-4 in non-conference games, 1-1 vs ACC teams.
Rams are 1-5 vs teams in the top 50
VCU is shooting 36.7% on arc (#35); 43.8% of their shots are 3’s

KenPom rating: 46
Tempo: 116
Experience: 134
Continuity: 237

VCU is in NCAA’s for 12th time in 16 years; they lost their last five first round games. Last time they won a first round game was 2016.

Michigan (-31.5) vs Howard (@ Buffalo)
Michigan (31-3)
Wolverines won 17 of their last 19 games.
Michigan won Big 18 (#2 league) by four games.
Michigan has #9 eFG% in country, #1 eFG% defense.

Wolverine subs play 35.1% of time (#98)
Michigan is 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100 (five wins by 20+).
Michigan is 10-0 in non-conference games.

KenPom rating: 3
Tempo: 22
Experience: 161
Continuity: 120

Michigan is in NCAA’s for 8th time in 10 years; they made Sweet 16 last year.
Dusty May got Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023

Howard (24-10)
Bison won their last nine games.
Howard won MEAC (#31 league) by a game.
Bison is #14 in country at forcing turnovers.

Howard is 7-6 in Division I non-conference games.
Bison is 2-4 vs teams in the top 200
Since 2013, MEAC teams are 4-11 in NCAA’s.
Since 2013, MEAC teams are 1-8 ATS in this round.

KenPom rating: 204
Tempo: 85
Experience: 209
Continuity: 307

Howard is in the NCAA’s for third time in four years.

BYU (-1.5) vs Texas (@ Portland, OR)
BYU (23-11)
Cougars are 7-10 in their last 17 games, after a 16-1 start.
Saunders, one of their three best guys, is out for year.
BYU went 9-9 in Big XII (#3 league), tied for 7th.

BYU is 12-1 in non-conference games.
Cougars are 8-8 vs teams ranked in top 50.
BYU is shooting 56.2% inside arc (#42)

KenPom rating: 23
Tempo: 46
Experience: 137
Continuity: 148

BYU is in NCAAs for third year in row; they made Sweet 16 last year.

Texas (19-14)
Texas lost five of its last seven games.
Longhorns finished 10th in 16-team SEC
Texas gets 24.4% of their points on foul line (#16)

Texas is 10-4 in non-conference games.
Longhorns are 7-11 vs teams in the top 50
Sixth year in row in NCAA’s for Texas (5-5 last five years)
Texas played three starters 33:00+ Tuesday night.

KenPom rating: 37
Tempo: 208
Experience: 4
Continuity: 123

Sixth year in row in NCAA’s for Texas (6-5)

Saint Mary’s (-3.5) vs Texas A&M (@ Oklahoma City)
Saint Mary’s (27-5)
Saint Mary’s won eight of their last nine games.
Saint Mary’s tied with Gonzaga atop WCC (#8 league)
Gaels have been off for ten days.

Gaels have #18 eFG% defense in country.
Saint Mary’s is 2-4 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Saint Mary’s is a top 10 rebounding team in country.

KenPom rating: 24
Tempo: 298
Experience: 336
Continuity: 121

Saint Mary’s is in NCAAs for 5th year in row (3-1 in first round last 4 years)

Texas A&M (21-11)
Aggies are 4-7 in their last 11 games, after a 17-4 start.
A&M was 11-7 (T4th) in SEC (#1 league).
Aggies are 6-8 vs teams in the top 50

A&M is 10-3 in non-conference games.
Aggies are shooting 36.2% on arc (#47)
37% of their points come on 3’s (#50)

KenPom rating: 39
Tempo: 29
Experience: 8
Continuity: 339

Texas A&M is in the NCAA’s for 4th year in row.
Aggies won their first round game last two years.
Coach McMillan made NCAA’s in ’24 at Samford (lost 93-89 to Kansas)

Illinois (-24.5) vs Penn (@ Greenville, SC)
Illinois (24-8)
Illinois is 4-5 in its last nine games (4/5 losses in OT).
Illini was 11-1 (T2nd) in Big 14 (#2 league).
Illini is 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.

Illinois is 9-2 in non-conference games.
50.7% of Illinois’ shots are 3’s (#12)
38.8% of their points come on 3’s (#27)
Illini is shooting 34.7% on arc (#140)

KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 276
Experience: 130
Continuity: 70

Illinois is in NCAAs for 6th year in row (4-1 in first round last five years)

Penn (23-10)
Quakers won their last five games, and 9 of last 10.
Both of Penn’s wins in Ivy tournament were in overtime.
Penn was 9-5 (3rd place) in Ivy League (#14 league)

Penn is 6-6 in Division I non-conference games.
Quakers are 1-5 vs teams in the top 100 (best win, over #81 Yale (1-2))
Last two years, Illinois was 4-0 vs Iowa, when McCaffery was there.

KenPom rating: 151
Tempo: 89
Experience: 233
Continuity: 75

Penn is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2018.
McCaffery is 6-4 in NCAA first round games (0-1 in play-in)

Georgia (-1.5) vs Saint Louis (@ Buffalo)
Georgia (22-10)
Dawgs are 6-7 in their last 13 games, after a 16-3 start.
Georgia was 10-8 (T7th) in SEC (#1 league).
Georgia is 6-8 vs teams in top 50.

Dawgs shoot 57.3% inside arc (#28)
Georgia is 12-1 in non-conference games.
Georgia is #336 team on defensive boards.

KenPom rating: 32
Tempo: 16
Experience: 76
Continuity: 117

LY, Dawgs made NCAAs for first time since 2015, lost in first round.
Coach White is in NCAA’s for sixth time in last nine years (4-1 in 1st round)

Saint Louis (28-5)
Billikens split their last eight games, after a 24-1 start.
Saint Louis tied VCU atop Atlantic 14 (#7 league).
Saint Louis has #2 eFG% and #2 eFG% defense.

Saint Louis is 12-1 in non-conference games.
Billikens are 6-2 vs teams in the top 100
Billikens are shooting 58.9% inside arc (#15)

KenPom rating: 41
Tempo: 21
Experience: 31
Continuity: 173

Saint Louis is in the NCAA’s for first time since 2019.
Georgia plays at pace #16, Saint Louis #21. Should be a fast game.

Gonzaga (-20.5) vs Kennesaw State
Gonzaga (30-3)
Zags won eight of their last nine games.
Gonzaga tied with Saint Mary’s atop the WCC (#8 league).
Gonzaga is 12-1 in non-conference games (lost by 40 to Michigan)

Gonzaga has #22 eFG% and #13 eFG% defense.
Zags are 19-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Gonzaga gets 60.3% of its points inside arc (#3)

KenPom rating: 10
Tempo: 111
Experience: 6
Continuity: 167

Gonzaga is 4-2 ATS in its last six first round games.

Kennesaw State (21-13)
Kennesaw won seven of its last nine games, after a 14-11 start.
Owls were 10-10 (T6th) in Conference USA (#13 league).
Kennesaw is #40 team on offensive boards.

Owls are 6-4 in non-conference games.
Kennesaw is 0-2 vs teams in top 100, losing by 11-19 points.
Last six years, C-USA teams are 2-4 ATS in first round games.

KenPom rating: 161
Tempo: 19
Experience: 234
Continuity: 127

Kennesaw lost 72-67 to Xavier in 2023, its only previous trip to NCAA’s.

Houston (-23.5) vs Idaho (@ Oklahoma City)
Houston (28-6)
Cougars won five of their last six games.
Houston was 14-4 (2nd place) in Big XII (#3 league).
Houston is 12-1 in non-conference games (lost to Tennessee by 3)

Cougars force turnovers 21% of time (#12)
Houston is #30 team in country on offensive boards.
Houston has #17 eFG% defense in country.

KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 352
Experience: 91
Continuity: 44

Houston won its last seven first round games; they lost national title game LY, 65-63

Idaho (21-14)
Idaho went 9-9 in Big Sky, but won four games to win conference tourney.
Vandals are 5-5 in Division I non-conference games.
Idaho is #5 team in country on defensive boards.

46.8% of Idaho’s shots are 3’s (#34)
Vandals lost 80-65 at Notre Dame, their only top 100 game.
Idaho is 9-10 vs teams in top 200.
Last nine years, Big Sky teams are 1-7-1 ATS in this round.

KenPom rating: 146
Tempo: 156
Experience: 144
Continuity: 106

Idaho is in the NCAA’s for first time since 1990

TCU Ohio State

TCU is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
TCU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
TCU is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of TCU's last 15 games played in March.
Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 5 games.
Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Ohio State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.


Troy Nebraska

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Troy's last 12 games.
Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Troy is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games played in March.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games played on a Thursday.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games.
Nebraska is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
Nebraska is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Sun Belt conference.
Nebraska is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games played in March.


South Florida Louisville

South Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of South Florida's last 10 games.
South Florida is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
South Florida is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games against Louisville.
Louisville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 7 games.
Louisville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games against South Florida.


High Point Wisconsin

High Point is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of High Point's last 16 games.
High Point is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
High Point is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wisconsin's last 8 games.
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games played in March.


Siena Duke

Siena is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Siena's last 6 games.
Siena is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Siena is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
Duke is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Duke's last 18 games.
Duke is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Metro Atlantic Athletic conference.


McNeese State Vanderbilt

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of McNeese State's last 7 games.
McNeese State is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
McNeese State is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
McNeese State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games played in March.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vanderbilt's last 7 games.
Vanderbilt is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Vanderbilt is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Southland conference.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Vanderbilt's last 13 games played in March.


North Dakota State Michigan State

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Dakota State's last 5 games.
North Dakota State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games.
North Dakota State is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Dakota State's last 7 games played in March.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Michigan State's last 12 games.
Michigan State is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games.
Michigan State is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Summit League conference.
Michigan State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games played in March.


Hawaii Arkansas

Hawaii is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hawaii's last 7 games.
Hawaii is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hawaii's last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Arkansas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arkansas' last 9 games.
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Arkansas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games played in March.


VCU North Carolina

VCU is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of VCU's last 5 games.
VCU is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
VCU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 7 games.
North Carolina is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
North Carolina is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Atlantic 10 conference.


Howard Michigan

Howard is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games.
Howard is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
Howard is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Howard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games played in March.
Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Michigan's last 8 games.
Michigan is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games.
Michigan is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Mid-Eastern conference.


Texas BYU

Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas' last 6 games.
Texas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas' last 5 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
BYU is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games played in March.
BYU is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games played on a Thursday.


Texas A&M St. Mary's

Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.
Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the West Coast conference.
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Texas A&M's last 16 games played in March.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 6 games played on a Thursday.
Saint Mary's-California is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saint Mary's-California's last 13 games.
Saint Mary's-California is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Saint Mary's-California is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


Pennsylvania Illinois

Pennsylvania is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pennsylvania's last 14 games.
Pennsylvania is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Pennsylvania is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Illinois' last 9 games.
Illinois is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games.
Illinois is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Ivy League conference.


Saint Louis Georgia

Saint Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Louis' last 7 games.
Saint Louis is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
Saint Louis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia's last 8 games.
Georgia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia's last 12 games against an opponent in the Atlantic 10 conference.


Kennesaw State Gonzaga

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kennesaw State's last 5 games.
Kennesaw State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
Kennesaw State is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games played in March.
Kennesaw State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games played on a Thursday.
Gonzaga is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Gonzaga's last 6 games.
Gonzaga is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Gonzaga's last 9 games against an opponent in the Conference USA conference.


Idaho Houston

Idaho is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
Idaho is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Idaho is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games played in March.
Idaho is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games played on a Thursday.
Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games.
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Big Sky conference.

Detroit Washington

Detroit is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games.
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Washington.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games.
Washington is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games against Detroit.
Washington is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games at home.


Orlando Charlotte

Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games.
Orlando is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games against Charlotte.
Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games.
Charlotte is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games against Orlando.


Phoenix San Antonio

Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games.
Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against San Antonio.
Phoenix is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games against San Antonio.
San Antonio is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games.
San Antonio is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games against Phoenix.


Philadelphia Sacramento

Philadelphia is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games.
Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against Sacramento.
Philadelphia is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games against Sacramento.
Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games.
Sacramento is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games against Philadelphia.

Winnipeg Boston

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 9 games.
Winnipeg is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games against Boston.
Winnipeg is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road.
Winnipeg is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Boston.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games.
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games against Winnipeg.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home.


Montreal Detroit

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games.
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games against Detroit.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Montreal's last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games.
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal.


Chicago Minnesota

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games.
Chicago is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games.
Chicago is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games against Minnesota.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games.
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games against Chicago.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home.


Seattle Nashville

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games.
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville.
Nashville is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nashville's last 9 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle.
Nashville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Pacific Division division.


Florida Edmonton

The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida's last 18 games.
Florida is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games.
Florida is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against Edmonton.
Florida is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Edmonton's last 18 games.
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 9 games against Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 10 games at home.


Buffalo San Jose

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games.
Buffalo is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games against San Jose.
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
San Jose is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games at home.
San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Jose's last 11 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.


Tampa Bay Vancouver

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
Tampa Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games against Vancouver.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 8 games.
Vancouver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Vancouver's last 16 games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games at home.


Utah Vegas

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 9 games.
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games on the road.
Utah is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Vegas.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas' last 6 games.
Vegas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas' last 5 games at home.
Vegas is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Utah.

Trends by Conference

ACC

Teams in the First Round matchup
CLEMSON (South #8) vs. IOWA-Big Ten
DUKE (East #1) vs. SIENA-Metro Atlantic
LOUISVILLE (East #6) vs. S FLORIDA-American Athletic
MIAMI (FL) (West #7) vs. MISSOURI-SEC
NORTH CAROLINA (South #6) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH-Atlantic 10
SMU (Midwest #11) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC???
VIRGINIA (Midwest #3) vs. WRIGHT STATE-Horizon

Trends

– Over the last four NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 37-20 SU & ATS (64.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, SMU???, Virginia

– In the role of pick em’ or small underdog (up to 4.5-points), ACC teams are currently on a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Clemson, SMU???

– ACC teams are just 33-52-1 ATS (38.8%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAA’s since 1998.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Louisville, Miami, North Carolina

– ACC teams are 36-3 SU but 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 as double-digit tourney favorites.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Duke, Virginia

– ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2012.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: SMU???

– Nineteen of the last 26 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (73.1%). Both went Under last year by over 20 points.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Miami (FL)-Missouri, SMU-Tennessee???

– In that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup, underdogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) surge since 2017.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Miami (FL), ON SMU???

American Athletic

Teams in the First Round matchup
SOUTH FLORIDA (East #11) vs. LOUISVILLE-ACC

Trends

– American Athletic teams are 13-5 Under the total (72.2%) in their last 18 tourney games as underdogs.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville

– In their last 25 tourney games versus power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 18-10 Under the total (64.3%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville

Atlantic 10

Teams in the First Round matchup
SAINT LOUIS (Midwest #9) vs. GEORGIA-SEC
VA COMMONWEALTH (South #11) vs. NORTH CAROLINA-ACC

Trends

– Atlantic 10 teams have won just four of their last 16 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (25%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, Va Commonwealth

– Favorites are on a 21-6 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, Va Commonwealth

Atlantic Sun

Teams in the First Round matchup
QUEENS COLL (West #15) vs. PURDUE-Big Ten

Trends

– Atlantic Sun teams are on an 11-6 ATS (64.7%) run in NCAA tourney games since 2013, including 9-5 ATS (64.3%) vs. Power 5 conferences.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Queens Coll

– Atlantic Sun teams are on 5-1 Under (83.3%) the total run in NCAA’s overall and 6-2 Under the total (75%) in their last eight vs. power conference teams.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Queens Coll-Purdue

Big 12

Teams in the First Round matchup
ARIZONA (West #1) vs. LONG ISLAND-Northeast
BYU (West #6) vs. TEXAS-SEC
HOUSTON (South #2) vs. IDAHO-Big Sky
IOWA STATE (Midwest #2) vs. TENNESSEE STATE-Ohio Valley
KANSAS (East #4) vs. CAL BAPTIST-WAC
TCU (East #9) vs. OHIO STATE-Big Ten
TEXAS TECH (Midwest #5) vs. AKRON-Mid-American
UCF (East #10) vs. UCLA-Big Ten

Trends

– Big 12 teams have been dominant in the First Four/first round games of the tournament since 2017, going 41-14 SU and 35-20 ATS (63.6%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

– Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 29-38 SU and 26-40 ATS (39.4%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Kansas, Texas Tech

– Against mid-major teams in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a 27-12 ATS (69.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

– Underdogs are on a 10-3-1 ATS (76.9%) run in NCAAT games between the Big 12 and Big Ten conferences.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: TCU, UCF

– Big 12 teams have lost 63 of their 79 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 33-45-1 ATS (42.3%) in those games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST TCU, UCF

– As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 37-2 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

– In expectedly high-scoring NCAA tournament games, or those with totals >155, Big 12 teams are on a 19-8 ATS (70.3%) run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Texas Tech

Big East

Teams in the First Round matchup
CONNECTICUT (East #2) vs. FURMAN-Southern
ST JOHN’S (East #5) vs. N IOWA-Missouri Valley
VILLANOVA (West #8) vs. UTAH STATE-Mountain West

Trends

– Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in the NCAA’s since 2016.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Connecticut

– The last 46 Big East teams to play as seeds of #7 or worse in the NCAA tourney are just 15-38 SU and 20-33 ATS (37.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

– Teams from the Big East Conference have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAA’s since 2007, going 45-3 SU and 33-15 ATS (68.8%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Connecticut

– Teams from the Big East in the #8-#9 First Round matchup are just 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in the NCAA’s since 2005. However, both UConn and Creighton won in this scenario last year.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

– Big East teams are on a 10-3 SU and ATS (76.9%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Villanova

– Favorites are 56-23 ATS (70.9%) in the last 79 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) the last three years.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: ON Connecticut, St Johns, AGAINST Villanova

– In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and mid-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 34-12 SU and 33-11 ATS (75%) run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: St Johns, Villanova

– Big East teams have struggled in the NCAAT in the +3 to -3 line range, going 39-56 ATS (41.1%) since 2004.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

Big Sky

Teams in the First Round matchup
IDAHO (South #15) vs. HOUSTON-Big 12

Trends

– Big Sky teams are just 1-24 SU and 6-19 ATS (24%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-17 ATS (15%) as an underdog of less than 20 points.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Idaho

– Big Sky teams have lost 22 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-17 ATS (22.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Idaho

– Big Sky teams are on a 5-1 Over the total (83.3%) surge in the NCAA’s, but Montana did go Under in 2025.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Idaho-Houston

Big South

Teams in the First Round matchup
HIGH POINT (West #12) vs. WISCONSIN-Big Ten

Trends

– Big South teams are 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since 2003, 3-9 ATS (25%) in all other seeds.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST #12 High Point

– Big South teams are on a 16-6 Under the total (72.7%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 56.9 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Wisconsin

– Big South teams have gone Under the total in ALL 11 (100%) previous NCAAT games with totals of 140 or higher.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Wisconsin

Big Ten

Teams in the First Round matchup
ILLINOIS (South #3) vs. PENNSYLVANIA-Ivy League
IOWA (South #9) vs. CLEMSON-ACC
MICHIGAN (Midwest #1) vs. HOWARD-MEAC
MICHIGAN STATE (East #3) vs. NORTH DAKOTA STATE-Summit
NEBRASKA (South #4) vs. TROY-Sun Belt
OHIO STATE (East #8) vs. TCU-Big 12
PURDUE (West #2) vs. QUEENS NC-Atlantic Sun
UCLA (East #7) vs. UCF-Big 12
WISCONSIN (West #5) vs. HIGH POINT-Big South

Trends

– Big Ten teams are on an insane 48-21 Under the total (69.6%) run in the last four NCAA tournaments.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Illinois-Pennsylvania, Iowa-Clemson, Michigan-Howard, Michigan State-North Dakota State, Nebraska-Troy, Ohio State-TCU, Purdue-Queens Coll, UCLA-UCF, High Point-Wisconsin

– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tourney tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Nebraska

– Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 56-5 SU and 36-21-4 ATS (63.2%) since 1998, including 7-0 SU and ATS the last two years.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue

– Big Ten teams have gone just 16-23 SU and 17-21-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Ohio State, UCLA

– In tourney games versus mid-major conference foes over the last three seasons in the NCAA’s, Big Ten teams are on an 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) run. They are also 26-7 Under the total (78.8%) in their last 33 such games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin and UNDER the total in Illinois-Pennsylvania, Michigan-Howard, Michigan State-North Dakota State, Nebraska-Troy, Purdue-Queens Coll, High Point-Wisconsin

– Going back to 2017, Big Ten teams boast a 45-12 SU and 36-20-1 ATS (64.3%) record in the NCAAT first round.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big West

Teams in the First Round matchup
HAWAII (West #13) vs. ARKANSAS-SEC

Trends

– Big West teams are just 4-21 SU and 9-15-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 25 NCAA tournament games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hawaii

– Big West teams have trended Under on totals in five straight NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Hawaii-Arkansas

– Big West teams have struggled in the role of large underdog, 1-20 SU and 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) when catching 6.5 points or more in the tourney since 1998.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hawaii

Coastal Athletic

Teams in the First Round matchup
HOFSTRA (Midwest #13) vs. ALABAMA-SEC

Trends

– Coastal Athletic teams used to be among the country’s best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance, however, they have lost their last 12 games outright and are 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in their last six.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hofstra

– Coastal Athletic teams are on a 24-9-2 ATS (72.7%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams, including UNCW (+15.5) 82-72 loss to Texas Tech last year.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Hofstra

– Under the total is 8-2 (80%) in the last 10 Coastal Athletic NCAA tournament games versus other mid-major conference teams. Over is 7-4 (63.6%) in the last 11 vs. power conference foes.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against OVER the total in Hofstra-Alabama

Conference USA

Teams in the First Round matchup
KENNESAW STATE (West #14) vs. GONZAGA-West Coast

Trends

– Take away Florida Atlantic’s 4-1 SU and ATS run in 2023 and it’s a 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) NCAA tourney slide for Conference USA teams since 2009.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Kennesaw State

– Double-digit seeded Conference USA teams are on a 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) slide in the NCAA’s.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Kennesaw State

Horizon

Teams in the First Round matchup
WRIGHT STATE (Midwest #14) vs. VIRGINIA-ACC

Trends

– Horizon League teams have lost 14 of their last 16 NCAA tourney games while going 8-8 ATS (50%). However, they are currently on a 6-game ATS win streak.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Wright State

– Horizon League teams are on a 17-9 Under the total (65.4%) NCAA run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Wright State-Virginia

– Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 1-17 SU and 7-9 ATS (43.8%) since 2002. In all other games, they are 20-11 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Wright State

– In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 2-16 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) since 2002. Versus other mid-majors, Horizon League teams are on an 8-2 SU and ATS tourney surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Wright State

Ivy

Teams in the First Round matchup
PENNSYLVANIA (South #14) vs. ILLINOIS-Big Ten

Trends

– Ivy League teams have gone 8-14 SU and 13-9 ATS (59.1%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Pennsylvania

– Ivy League teams are on a 20-13 Under the total (60.6%) NCAA run, but they have gone Over in each of their last four tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Pennsylvania-Illinois

– As underdogs of 5 points or more in the NCAA’s, Ivy League teams are just 5-24 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) since 2000. They are also 19-10 Under the total (65.5%) in those games, scoring just 62.4 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Pennsylvania & UNDER the total in Pennsylvania-Illinois

Metro Atlantic

Teams in the First Round matchup
SIENA (East #16) vs. DUKE-ACC

Trends

– Metro Atlantic Athletic are now 2-6 SU and ATS (25%) in their last eight NCAA tourney tries as a non-double-digit underdog. They are 4-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last six as a double-digit dog.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Siena

Mid-American

Teams in the First Round matchup
AKRON (Midwest #12) vs. TEXAS TECH-Big 12
MIAMI (OH) (Midwest #11) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC???

Trends

– Mid-American Conference teams are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse, but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Akron, Miami (OH)???

– Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in their last 16 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tourney.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Akron, Miami (OH)???

– MAC teams have gone Under the total in their last seven NCAA tourney games (100%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total Akron-Texas Tech, Miami (OH)-Tennessee???

Mid-Eastern

Teams in the First Round matchup
HOWARD (Midwest #16) vs. MICHIGAN-Big Ten

Trends

– MEAC teams are on a 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) slide in the NCAA’s, including 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS (25%) in first round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Howard

– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily Under on totals, 18-11 (62.1%) in the last 29. However, the last three have gone Over.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Howard-Michigan

Missouri Valley

Teams in the First Round matchup
NORTHERN IOWA (East #12) vs. ST JOHN’S-Big East

Trends

– Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 21-16 SU and 21-15-1 ATS (60.8%) in the NCAA tournament since 2013.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

– MVC teams are on a 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) NCAA tourney run against power conference schools.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

– MVC teams are 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) since 2006 as an NCAA tournament underdog of 3 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

– Underdogs are 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) since 2013 in MVC NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

– Under the total is 16-7 (69.6%) in the last 23 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games, including 11-3 Under in games with totals >=144.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Northern Iowa-St John’s (131.5)

Mountain West

Teams in the First Round matchup
UTAH STATE (West #9) vs. VILLANOVA-Big East

Trends

– I have shared Mountain West teams’ struggles annually in the NCAA’s in recent years, as collectively they are just 32-67 SU and 32-64-3 ATS (33.3%) since 2001.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

– Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAA’s since 2000, 14-55 SU and 18-49-2 ATS (26.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

– As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAA’s, MWC teams are on a brutal 7-41 SU and 10-36-2 ATS (21.7%) since 2003!
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

Northeast

Teams in the First Round matchup
LONG ISLAND (West #16) vs. ARIZONA-Big 12

Trends

– Northeast teams are 5-1 ATS over the last three NCAA tourneys, snapping a slide of 4-9-1 ATS in the prior 14 games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Long Island

– Northeast Conference teams are on a 9-3 Over the total (75%) surge as a double-digit NCAA tourney underdog.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Long Island-Arizona

Ohio Valley

Teams in the First Round matchup
TENNESSEE STATE (Midwest #15) vs. IOWA STATE-Big 12

Trends

– Ohio Valley Conference teams have gone 1-6 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last seven NCAA tournament games after a 15-6 ATS run prior.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Tennessee State

– OVC teams are 8-4 ATS (66.7%) in their last 12 NCAA tourney games when playing as dogs of 9 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Tennessee State

– Ohio Valley teams are 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in their last 18 NCAAT games with totals >=141
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Tennessee State

– Over the total is 10-4 (71.4%) in the last 13 Ohio Valley NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Tennessee State-Iowa State

Patriot

Teams in the First Round matchup
LEHIGH (South #16) vs. FLORIDA-SEC???

Trends

– Patriot League teams are 10-6 (62.5%) ATS as double-digit underdogs in the NCAA’s since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Lehigh???

– Patriot League teams are 12-8 (60%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAA’s since 2000, but 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) against fellow mid-major teams.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Lehigh???

SEC

Teams in the First Round matchup
ALABAMA (Midwest #4) vs. HOFSTRA-Coastal Athletic
ARKANSAS (West #4) vs. HAWAII-Big West
FLORIDA (South #1) vs. LEHIGH-Patriot/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M-SWAC-
GEORGIA (Midwest #8) vs. SAINT LOUIS-Atlantic 10
KENTUCKY (Midwest #7) vs. SANTA CLARA-West Coast
MISSOURI (West #10) vs. MIAMI (FL)-ACC
TENNESSEE (Midwest #6) vs. SMU-ACC/MIAMI (OH)-MAC???
TEXAS (West #11) vs. BYU-Big 12
TEXAS A&M (South #10) vs. ST MARY’S (CA)-West Coast
VANDERBILT (South #5) vs. MCNEESE STATE-Southland

Trends

– As NCAA favorites of more than 20 points, SEC teams are 13-1 Over the total (92.9%) since 2001, scoring 87.1 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Florida-Lehigh/Prairie View

– SEC teams are on a 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run vs. ACC teams since 2003.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Missouri

– As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5-points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 48-53 SU and 40-57-4 ATS (41.2%) in the NCAA’s since 1999.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee???

– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 12-30 SU and 17-23-2 ATS (42.5%) record since 2007.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 19-26 ATS (42.2%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Alabama, Arkansas, and UNDER the total in Alabama-Hofstra and Hawaii-Arkansas

– SEC teams are on a 7-14 ATS (33.3%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAA’s and are 11-20 ATS (35.5%) in the last 31.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Tennessee???

Southern

Teams in the First Round matchup
FURMAN (East #15) vs. CONNECTICUT-Big East

Trends

– SoCon teams have trended Under the total in recent NCAA’s, 12-5 (70.6%) in the last 17.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Furman-Connecticut

– Teams from the SoCon have covered seven straight NCAA first-round games (100% ATS)!
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Furman

Southland

Teams in the First Round matchup
MCNEESE STATE (South #12) vs. VANDERBILT-SEC

Trends

– As underdogs of 8.5 points or less (or favored), Southland Conference teams are 9-7-1 ATS (56.3%) in their last 17 NCAA tournament tries, but when a larger underdog than that, they are 0-15 SU and 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: McNeese State

– Southland Conference teams are 13-5 Under the total (72.2%) in their last 18 NCAA tournament first-round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in McNeese State-Vanderbilt

– Southland Conference teams are on an amazing 17-3 Under the total (85%) surge in their last 20 NCAA tournament games vs. power conference opponents.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in McNeese State-Vanderbilt

Summit

Teams in the First Round matchup
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (East #14) vs. MICHIGAN STATE-Big Ten

Trends

– Overall, Summit League teams are on an 0-4 SU and ATS (0%) skid in the NCAA tournament, after going 7-1-1 ATS in the prior nine tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST North Dakota State

– Recognized as a high-scoring, up-tempo league, six of the last eight NCAA tourney games featuring a Summit League team went Under the total (75%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in North Dakota State-Michigan State

Sun Belt

Teams in the First Round matchup
TROY (South #13) vs. NEBRASKA-Big Ten

Trends

– Sun Belt teams have gone Under the total in nine of their last 10 (90%) NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Troy-Nebraska

– As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAAs, SBC teams are on a 6-12-1 ATS (33.3%) slide since 1999, but as #13 or better, they’ve gone 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in that same span.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

– As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (33%) slide in the NCAA’s, but when +8 or higher, they are 13-6 ATS (68.4%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

– Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on an NCAA tourney run of 8-5 ATS (61.5%) versus those foes since 2008.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

SWAC

Teams in the First Round matchup
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (South #16) vs. FLORIDA-SEC???

Trends

– As NCAA tourney dogs of +26 or more, SWAC teams are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Prairie View A&M???

WAC

Teams in the First Round matchup
CAL BAPTIST (East #13) vs. KANSAS-Big 12

Trends

– WAC teams have won just three of their last 26 games in the NCAA’s since 2006, going 11-15 ATS; however, they are 6-2 ATS (75%) in their last eight.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Cal Baptist

– Against power conference opponents in the NCAA’s, WAC teams are on a 1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS (36.8%) skid, while against fellow mid-majors, they are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Cal Baptist

– Six of the last nine WAC first-round NCAA tourney games have gone Over the total (66.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Cal Baptist-Kansas

West Coast

Teams in the First Round matchup
GONZAGA (West #3) vs. KENNESAW STATE-Conference USA
SANTA CLARA (Midwest #10) vs. KENTUCKY-SEC
ST MARY’S(CA) (South #7) vs. TEXAS A&M-SEC

Trends

– Going into the 2026 NCAA’s, West Coast Conference teams are on a 7-15 ATS (31.8%) tourney skid.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga, Santa Clara, St Mary’s (CA)

– West Coast Conference teams haven’t been as good as suspected as NCAA tournament underdogs, 7-25 SU and 9-23 ATS (28.1%) since 2007, including 13 straight outright losses.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Santa Clara

– WCC teams have struggled against other non-major conference teams in NCAA tourney play, 20-9 SU but 9-20 ATS (31%) since 2004.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga

– WCC teams are just 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games as favorites of 9.5 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament First-Round Best Bets: Top 3 Picks Based on Historical Betting Trends


🏀 First-Round Cheat Sheet

Steve Makinen‘s NCAA Tournament first-round betting trends through Chat GPT and requested the three Best Bets based on the data.

These three spots show the strongest alignment of historical trends + market inefficiencies:

Under: South Florida–Louisville (163.5)

Multiple systems converge: high totals (70.5% UNDER), First Four carryover (73.1%), AAC trends (64%+), and #6 seed UNDER (81.5%)
Even the head-to-head series has gone UNDER 5 straight
👉 Why it matters: Early-round totals are still inflated—this is a classic pace + pressure spot.

Fade the #5 seeds (Target: McNeese State +11.5 vs Vanderbilt)

#5 seeds: just 40.9% ATS over last 16 tournaments
Favored by 6+: 34.5% ATS
#12 seeds: 76.5% ATS surge
👉 Why it matters: This is the most consistently mispriced matchup in March—public loves the favorite, value sits with the dog.

Lay it: Michigan -31.5 vs Howard (or similar 1-seed blowouts)

Double-digit favorites: 56% ATS
#1 seeds laying 25+: 59% ATS
Big Ten vs mid-majors: 85% ATS
MEAC teams: 25% ATS in this round
👉 Why it matters: NIL has widened the gap—true mismatches are producing more blowouts, not fewer.

NBA H2H

(551) DETROIT at (552) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the DET-WSH series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs DET)

(553) ORLANDO at (554) CHARLOTTE
* ORLANDO is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven trips to Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at CHA)

* Under the total is 12-3-1 in the last 16 of their overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CHA (o/u at 225.5)

(555) CLEVELAND at (556) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Cavs-Bulls divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CHI (o/u at 240.5)

(557) PHOENIX at (558) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams have won and covered the last seven meetings between PHX and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-9.5 vs PHX)

(559) LA CLIPPERS at (560) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 instances of hosting LAC, including a win and cover last night
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs LAC)

(561) LA LAKERS at (562) MIAMI
* Home teams have won and covered all three matchups between LAL and MIA since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 vs LAL)

(563) MILWAUKEE at (564) UTAH
* Favorites are on 8-2 SU and ATS surge in the MIL-UTA non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at UTA)

(565) PHILADELPHIA at (566) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the 76ers-Kings cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SAC (o/u at 228.5)