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NBA 5/18/26

Cleveland Cavaliers +5 (-120) for 3 units

Bouncing back-and-forth in any series is always difficult, we need to remove our bias and any loyalty we have in our analysis. I’ve said, from the beginning that I think Cleveland can win this series and last game, picking the underdog, Although they weren’t the underdog by the time I bet them, Has proved a reasonable strategy. I think these two teams are pretty close and the Knicks would probably be in good position to beat either, but for this game seven – I like James Harden and Donovan, Mitchell catching five points. I did buy the hook, I’ve had whole discussions about a five point spread in the NBA through the years. It’s the only number I should even consider it at. And even this one is probably not profitable if you play enough.

After getting smacked around at home and game six, I’m not ready to anoint Detroit just yet. I did say when I picked them earlier in the series, picking the new up-and-coming team is usually new for me – so going back to names I recognize isn’t surprising, but this will take me to two bets on each side for the series and hopefully on the correct one all four.

NBA 5/18/26 & 5/19/26

San Antonio Spurs +12.5 & New York Knicks ML (-134) for 4 units

YTD: 4-1, +8 units

*PS - the date for my Cavs play yesterday should’ve said 5/17. Typo.*

**Soooo…. I thought about playing the two separate sides of SAS +7 (would be heavier vig like -120-125 ish but that’s the appx # I was looking at) & NYK -7, teasing these Spurs & Knicks.. parlaying something with the Knicks ML… doing series bets with Knicks & the Thunder - but still trying to thread the needle and take Spurs plus the points game 1.. but .. I’ve beaten this point til I’m blue in the face in past years.. long term advice to myself: for NBA, only do sides and don’t buy points. And the four leg parlays get beat every time it seems. But.. how about 2? Also, history tells me don’t do NBA futures (or really any) for dang sure. That said, the Spurs + more points and Knicks ML as a “tease ish” parlay looks really nice. This is the *seemingly* perfect situation to consider manipulating lines and to consider trying to thread the needle with the OKC series action, so only time will tell if the oddsmakers are trying to suck me in or if I sniffed something out. I had four plays written at one point, a futures on OKC/NY to make finals, two ATS sides, and this tease… but I’m now wondering if this is the perfect time to combine my NBA ATS side only discipline with the UA strategy of line manipulation and trusting the oddsmakers to get the line really tight. With the added factor of potential for a little unknown with rest/rust with the Knicks and Thunder - those couple extra points help could prove valuable. If these sides split and the teasing of the lines doesn’t end up mattering, I will do everything in my power to make sure ATS sides are the only thing I play in NBA… like ever again. Lol. But do I usually “tease” (ever?) in the NBA? No, not usually - but I have done like four side parlays - which I’ve already said I shouldn’t do in NFL also. This is a very intriguing play and situation.. I think this is my chance to test and to hopefully lock in a lesson. Can the UA strategy work at all for NBA when disciplined? Let’s find out.**

So… I thought a lot about the Thunder/Spurs series and I know that 55-65% of the bets are on the Spurs ATS here in game 1, but you have to go back to March 1st after an 11 game win streak to find the last time the Spurs lost by more than 5 (throwing away the last regular season game of the year that Wemby didn’t play). Is it that simple? Take the team that *can* win straight up and give them +7? We shall see. OKC is so good. I’m still not sure if I’d even like SAS in the series even if they win game 1. This Thunder team is unbelievable and was last year too. Is anything standing in their way at all? Well, if I have to bet on something or someone, he might as well be 7’5” and give us a series that lasts more than 5 games. Starts with a competitive effort in game 1 (even if they proceed to lose game 2 by double digits). If I had to pick, I’d still say Thunder are too amazing and figure it out in the series.. this one could be exciting. Spurs plus an extra cushion for game 1 looks really intriguing.. but you know OKC could come out and play mad after getting smoked in the regular season. Idk what that means though, Spurs don’t seem to get blown out much at all - even when they do lose. I will note that in game 1’s last year after their sweep of Mem, they lost to Denver, and after beating Min in five, they lost game 1 to Indiana. Meaning sometimes they may need a minute to shake off the rust.

As for the Knicks/Cavs, I liked Cle getting by the upstart Pistons in game 7 in a nice back and forth series - but I have the Knicks making the finals here. After the emotion of a game 7 game where they kicked butt, that will be hard to replicate at MSG. Knicks look sharp this postseason so far and I believe they keep it rolling in game 1 against the Cavs. I’m not even sure Cle is *that* good and it took the whispers that they stink level to 10 for Harden and Mitchell for them to snap back into it in game 7 after an egg in game 6 at home. Knicks defense here at home could look really nice (and lead to transition offense too) if they come out of the gates as sharp as they looked so far in the playoffs. I really like them in the series, so them winning game 1 at home vs Cle (who is 2-5 on the road this postseason) is the first step.

5/19 & 5/20 NBA

New York Knicks ML & Oklahoma City ML (-106) for 2 units

Pending: San Antonio Spurs +12.5 (5/18) & New York Knicks ML (5/19) (-134) for 4 units

This brings my Knicks side of the tease up to six. 1-4 unit scale with a super rare 5 and I suppose one side can account for up to 6 total units between two plays. Been a minute.

Now let’s talk some Knicks & OKC. Thunder are an automatic bet here imo. They’re too good and they’re not going down 0-2 at home .. to anyone. If they lose in 5, they’re still not losing this game. That’s my opinion, but it doesn’t take into account ATS. I’d pick ‘em ATS also, but for this play, I’m fortunate to have an easier choice using this strategy for a stint. I get a really stellar team in a desperate situation back at home after a 2OT heartbreaker against a team that just needed six against a physical Minnesota team. OKC has a lot going for them here in game 2.

The Knicks, well I talked against the Cavs in yesterday’s rant, so today I’ll add some thoughts for NY. They’re good! Even in their playoff loss at home, random stuff - McCollum went off for 32 and 49% FG shooting. I don’t think that’s sustainable and I actually think Knicks have a chance to play some defense here against a tired Cavs team. Some Thibs is probably still in there somewhere. Plus .. game 1 in the ECF as chalks at Madison Square Garden. That place should be rowdy.

So yesterday, I ended up betting the *tease(ish), but I had four plays typed up for 2 units each I was going to do instead. SAS +7 (-125), NYK -7, NY&OKC for series (-115 ish) and a tease of NYK to ML & SAS to +11 (-117). I’m using this as a mini case study to see if teasing ideas can be applied well in the NBA. PS after game 1, it’s been proven once again to avoid futures/series bets, I could get better odds after game 1 on OKC now. For the case study (teasing v separate) let’s say it woulda been another 2 units on OKC -6.5 in their game 2, but instead I have them on the ML here with this approach.

When thinking about teasing lines - I think NBA just has much greater variance in final scores and less key numbers than the NFL. Which in theory makes teases less effective overall than NFL, so I’m hoping I’m on the right sides and it won’t matter lol.

The Spurs won outright in 2OT as 6-6.5 point dogs and it was even near 7 at a point (by the time I would’ve played it, back down hence the -125). The problem with my approach is that I have prettier lines, but I’d be 1-0 with two plays pending if I just went ATS.. Anyway, now I have six units pending on a 7 point chalk on the ML and then another 2 on OKC down 1. I like ‘em, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush or something like that and there’s basketball to be played. And am I going to pretend I wouldn’t have liked the Spurs in game 1 vs Min -5 last round (what they would’ve been teased) when I had them on the ML as part of a parlay? I won’t. I would’ve teased them and that could’ve derailed a bet too (they lost game 1 outright by 2 at -10). I gotta keep an eye on this strategy though and reflect after this week bc right now I’ve taken one winner off the table.

After this Knicks games play out, assuming they hold on and win, I’d (in many scenarios) run it back with another 4 unit play on OKC and NY Moneylines in their respective game 2’s. But after the game 2’s, if things play out the way I think, it’ll be time to pause and reflect on the strategy before proceeding. Bc to me… SAS in game 1 was worthy of a 4 unit side (and as will Knicks in game 2 after a win in game 1), but Knicks game 1 & OKC bouncing back in game 2 will be six unit sides if all goes according to plan.

Don’t love the overall exposure when I could be playing with house money, but I made my bed here this week. I’m thinking this Knicks game 1 will be memorable for me regardless.

NBA 5/20 & 5/21/26

Oklahoma City ML & New York Knicks ML (+102) for 4 units

Pending: New York Knicks ML (5/19) & Oklahoma City ML (5/20) (-106) for 2 units

YTD: 5-1, +12 units

PS at the beginning of the Knicks game last night I knew this strategy w the tease (losing the bird in hand I had with the Spurs) was not the *right, disciplined* one and had me nervous. Nervous again at halftime when they were down two.. (but bc of shooting I’d have live bet the Knicks (11% 3pt half vs 38, with 5 more shots). If OT was included it would’ve won, if not it would’ve lost by a hook). And I was really really nervous when the Knicks were down 22 with 7:52 left in the 4th and as I finished up my post calculating it as a loss with a rant disavowing teases and parlays in the NBA. But they pulled it off. They forced overtime and not only that - they outscored them 14-3 in OT and covered the -7 too! So I would’ve just been 2-0 with 2 unit plays (miracle NYK got the -7 but they did), and instead I got a way more dramatic 1-0 4 unit play. If I end up on the right side all 4 times and it turns out the teases just complicated stuff… then maybe next round and moving forward it *is* back to only ATS. If the line adjustment helps on both the Thunder and Knicks, there’s an argument to be made teases definitely have a place and should be a part of my strategy. If one of two needs the help, then teases/parlays (but never 4 sides) proved they could be valuable.. sometimes, in very limited doses, in the NBA for me.

So.. as for my case study on tease-ish’s.. it’s proven that….. I guess I need to see how these next two games go. Four game case study. So far it made no difference either way in +/- but a huge difference is stress lol. I over complicated a 2-0. That’s not sustainable to do regularly. I’m talking about essentially doing it twice in a week here though. I guess the Conf Finals would be the time when lines would be (supposedly) sharp and a strategy like this could work. If the teases help, could be a tool in the toolbelt, if those points don’t matter and I lose a 1-1 push.. then the case study will say thumbs down to the UA teasing/parlaying the NBA at all. Hopefully the sides just roll and none of it will matter though! If you pick ATS right, the rest doesn’t matter.

Onto my final play of this sequence/case study as this brings my Thunder side of the tease up to six. My favorite side (particularly bc I don’t need to pick it ATS) is the desperate Thunder here in game 2. My second side with 6 units of exposure with the first being the Knicks in their game 1, the insane comeback game. I don’t plan on making a habit of max unit plays, but sometimes the situation calls for it! I believe this is one of them. I would absolutely have bet OKC minus the 6.5 too, but I want to see how this set plays out with the teases and six units is my cap.

Looking at the box score also, do I think game 2 will have Wemby go for 41 (on 14/25 shooting) and 24 rebounds while Shai goes 7/23 from the field? Assuming Wemby is actually human, that anomaly jumps out to me. Plus the half court 3 - and they just had a 6 game series against a physical Minnesota team. There has to be a lapse somewhere for the Spurs, at least for a moment.

As for the Knicks, I obviously loved them in game one and I think they start this series out 2–0 and hold Home court against the Cavs. After that heartache Cleveland endured.. Knicks may smoke them, could be another classic. Either way I like them to hold here. 3 units on this side, still a sizable play - but not 6 like NY ECF Game 1 or the currently pending OKC WCF Game 2’s 2 combined plays each. First bets are coming in on Cleveland on one site and 50/50 ATS on another. Public is siding with the Spurs big time fyi.

I’m going with the moneylines but Thunder are -6.5 and Knicks -6. I was considering just laying the lumbers or maybe -5’s (even though I’m not supposed to buy points in NBA…) at -143 each. I love those -5’s. But last season buying my hooks didn’t impact a single play. -5’s would’ve been a compromise, but something I’ve thought to avoid. Can add this element to my case study though when analyzing the results after Thursday’s game.

PS as part of my post I drafted but never posted - when I thought the Cavs were going to hold a 22 point lead with under 8 minutes left and was going to try to abandon teases and parlays… I would’ve played the Thunder -6.5 for 4 units. I like them ATS also. But irrespective of covering ATS, them winning game 2 at home is of my favorite plays of the postseason so far (while also taking into account value). I’m glad I have action on them period, even if it’s just the ML between those two plays.

So if the tease splits and line movement meant nothing like the first two in my case study (although Knicks not only forcing OT and winning, but covering -7 also), then I have to stick with ATS whether I like it or not. If line manipulation helps both, then teases (with 2 sides) gotta be a big part of what I do - in NBA just like NFL… and if one covers the full spread and one needed line moving help to help me win my tease (ish; remember I use the term “tease” loosely - it’s technically a parlay and always bet where if one side pushes, it just reduces the weight, not a loss. If you tease and one side loses per your book, make sure to adjust accordingly - or maybe not use that book if using this strategy. The UA strategy (especially in NFL) brings lines to key numbers frequently and the bet is placed with that in mind as a push if it hits, moving the play to a one side play), then tease(ish)s will be a tool in the arsenal to use sparingly. Not 2x per week or as a part of 100% of NBA games played for 4 games in a row.

NBA

Pending: Oklahoma City ML (5/20) & New York Knicks ML (5/21) (+102) for 4 units

YTD: 6-1, +14 units

Wild stat… before 5/19’s Knicks comeback, in the last 30 years of NBA playoffs, teams up 20+ on the final 8 minutes of the game were 688-1. Now they’re 688-2. Crazy. (saw it on First Things First) Anyway, so glad Knicks came back there.. and then to cover ATS also? Insane!!! Using it in my case study, it’s an overtime cover which throws it off.. bc, handicapping wise, regulation ended with them not covering at all the -7. The tease looked like it would be very helpful once we hit OT. It turned out not to be needed, but an interesting caveat in our analysis of these plays… bc if it was like the first 99.855% of those 689 situations, this case study would be over and I wouldn’t be talking about line manipulation teases or parlays at all in the NBA anymore.

As for OKC on 5/20, when I bet them they were -6.5 and it grew to -8 at my local casino by tip. That’s with 65% ish on SAS, meaning some serious cash (sharps) must’ve come in on OKC. De’Aaron Fox was also questionable (didn’t play game 1) for SAS and was ruled out again for game 2 after participating in the shoot around that day. Thunder ended up winning by 11, but were up as few as 5 with around 1 minute left which had it close... but tease wasn’t ultimately needed.

So.. if the Knicks cover what would’ve been -6.5 ish tomorrow night, then the teases will have created unnecessary risk on four calls that turned out right (lucky some of ‘em, but still). If Knicks win and don’t cover, ok - I can use an occasional 2 team only tease(ish) parlay - it’ll have taken me from 3-1 to 2-0 (with more units on each play) and made me money.. if they lose outright, then the teases will have created damage and taken a 3-1 to a 1-1. I said it was my little case study, gonna try my best to stick with it. Undisciplined futures and 4 team parlays are already kicked to the curb.

For the record, I like my Knicks play at home on the ML here - and am happy with the exposure, I want to see this play out and do think Knicks go to 2-0. But for perspective I would’ve hammered the Thunder in game 2 to the tune of 4 units ATS and this one would probably be more like a 2 unit. I do wonder if lack of slate contributed to how I did the teases, I did think about reducing the tease above to 3 and Thunder ATS for 1, but I was committed to seeing how these last teases shake out. ATS, yeah I still would take the Knicks and think they’ll win bc that loss was demoralizing. I’m thinking Knicks by 10-ish, but this could also be the stomp ‘em out 20+ game before Cleveland gives at least a little more back in game 3.