Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Controlling the Boards The Limper NBA Playoffs 2025-26 – Week 5

The model had a solid week ATS, and a semi-solid week SU, which improved the Limper’s overall playoffs record, although still being dragged down by that nightmare of a 1st round. (Finally, figured out how to change the model’s ATS and SU results from regular season to playoffs – and that really wasn’t easy to do). This past week, if I’d held nerve and didn’t flip to ML, I’d finally be ahead $ for the playoffs – but I didn’t so I didn’t. Still playing with house money from the regular season, so nothing to complain about. GLTA

FYI – The injury module which I apply against first run projections, has been a little twitchy of late. Can’t explain it, so just a caveat that’s worth noting with players playing through injuries.

The module uses past player performance data, home and away, for the regular season as well as the playoffs, pegged at a subjectively determined percentage loss that varies with the type and severity of injury (which takes a lot of digging. I mostly rely on the twitter feeds of team insiders). Point-loss through player replacement – when it also occurs - is also applied, which is a far simpler calculation, but matters more – and that’s where the twitchiness occurs for some damned reason.

Anyway, good luck today, as a number of injuries have cropped up for both OKL and SAN. Going to hold-off posting until, maybe, 15 minutes prior to tip-off, when, hopefully, there’s some better clarification on injuries.