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NBA 5/18/26

Cleveland Cavaliers +5 (-120) for 3 units

Bouncing back-and-forth in any series is always difficult, we need to remove our bias and any loyalty we have in our analysis. I’ve said, from the beginning that I think Cleveland can win this series and last game, picking the underdog, Although they weren’t the underdog by the time I bet them, Has proved a reasonable strategy. I think these two teams are pretty close and the Knicks would probably be in good position to beat either, but for this game seven – I like James Harden and Donovan, Mitchell catching five points. I did buy the hook, I’ve had whole discussions about a five point spread in the NBA through the years. It’s the only number I should even consider it at. And even this one is probably not profitable if you play enough.

After getting smacked around at home and game six, I’m not ready to anoint Detroit just yet. I did say when I picked them earlier in the series, picking the new up-and-coming team is usually new for me – so going back to names I recognize isn’t surprising, but this will take me to two bets on each side for the series and hopefully on the correct one all four.

NBA 5/18/26 & 5/19/26

San Antonio Spurs +12.5 & New York Knicks ML (-134) for 4 units

YTD: 4-1, +8 units

*PS - the date for my Cavs play yesterday should’ve said 5/17. Typo.*

**Soooo…. I thought about playing the two separate sides of SAS +7 (would be heavier vig like -120-125 ish but that’s the appx # I was looking at) & NYK -7, teasing these Spurs & Knicks.. parlaying something with the Knicks ML… doing series bets with Knicks & the Thunder - but still trying to thread the needle and take Spurs plus the points game 1.. but .. I’ve beaten this point til I’m blue in the face in past years.. long term advice to myself: for NBA, only do sides and don’t buy points. And the four leg parlays get beat every time it seems. But.. how about 2? Also, history tells me don’t do NBA futures (or really any) for dang sure. That said, the Spurs + more points and Knicks ML as a “tease ish” parlay looks really nice. This is the *seemingly* perfect situation to consider manipulating lines and to consider trying to thread the needle with the OKC series action, so only time will tell if the oddsmakers are trying to suck me in or if I sniffed something out. I had four plays written at one point, a futures on OKC/NY to make finals, two ATS sides, and this tease… but I’m now wondering if this is the perfect time to combine my NBA ATS side only discipline with the UA strategy of line manipulation and trusting the oddsmakers to get the line really tight. With the added factor of potential for a little unknown with rest/rust with the Knicks and Thunder - those couple extra points help could prove valuable. If these sides split and the teasing of the lines doesn’t end up mattering, I will do everything in my power to make sure ATS sides are the only thing I play in NBA… like ever again. Lol. But do I usually “tease” (ever?) in the NBA? No, not usually - but I have done like four side parlays - which I’ve already said I shouldn’t do in NFL also. This is a very intriguing play and situation.. I think this is my chance to test and to hopefully lock in a lesson. Can the UA strategy work at all for NBA when disciplined? Let’s find out.**

So… I thought a lot about the Thunder/Spurs series and I know that 55-65% of the bets are on the Spurs ATS here in game 1, but you have to go back to March 1st after an 11 game win streak to find the last time the Spurs lost by more than 5 (throwing away the last regular season game of the year that Wemby didn’t play). Is it that simple? Take the team that *can* win straight up and give them +7? We shall see. OKC is so good. I’m still not sure if I’d even like SAS in the series even if they win game 1. This Thunder team is unbelievable and was last year too. Is anything standing in their way at all? Well, if I have to bet on something or someone, he might as well be 7’5” and give us a series that lasts more than 5 games. Starts with a competitive effort in game 1 (even if they proceed to lose game 2 by double digits). If I had to pick, I’d still say Thunder are too amazing and figure it out in the series.. this one could be exciting. Spurs plus an extra cushion for game 1 looks really intriguing.. but you know OKC could come out and play mad after getting smoked in the regular season. Idk what that means though, Spurs don’t seem to get blown out much at all - even when they do lose. I will note that in game 1’s last year after their sweep of Mem, they lost to Denver, and after beating Min in five, they lost game 1 to Indiana. Meaning sometimes they may need a minute to shake off the rust.

As for the Knicks/Cavs, I liked Cle getting by the upstart Pistons in game 7 in a nice back and forth series - but I have the Knicks making the finals here. After the emotion of a game 7 game where they kicked butt, that will be hard to replicate at MSG. Knicks look sharp this postseason so far and I believe they keep it rolling in game 1 against the Cavs. I’m not even sure Cle is *that* good and it took the whispers that they stink level to 10 for Harden and Mitchell for them to snap back into it in game 7 after an egg in game 6 at home. Knicks defense here at home could look really nice (and lead to transition offense too) if they come out of the gates as sharp as they looked so far in the playoffs. I really like them in the series, so them winning game 1 at home vs Cle (who is 2-5 on the road this postseason) is the first step.

5/19 & 5/20 NBA

New York Knicks ML & Oklahoma City ML (-106) for 2 units

Pending: San Antonio Spurs +12.5 (5/18) & New York Knicks ML (5/19) (-134) for 4 units

This brings my Knicks side of the tease up to six. 1-4 unit scale with a super rare 5 and I suppose one side can account for up to 6 total units between two plays. Been a minute.

Now let’s talk some Knicks & OKC. Thunder are an automatic bet here imo. They’re too good and they’re not going down 0-2 at home .. to anyone. If they lose in 5, they’re still not losing this game. That’s my opinion, but it doesn’t take into account ATS. I’d pick ‘em ATS also, but for this play, I’m fortunate to have an easier choice using this strategy for a stint. I get a really stellar team in a desperate situation back at home after a 2OT heartbreaker against a team that just needed six against a physical Minnesota team. OKC has a lot going for them here in game 2.

The Knicks, well I talked against the Cavs in yesterday’s rant, so today I’ll add some thoughts for NY. They’re good! Even in their playoff loss at home, random stuff - McCollum went off for 32 and 49% FG shooting. I don’t think that’s sustainable and I actually think Knicks have a chance to play some defense here against a tired Cavs team. Some Thibs is probably still in there somewhere. Plus .. game 1 in the ECF as chalks at Madison Square Garden. That place should be rowdy.

So yesterday, I ended up betting the *tease(ish), but I had four plays typed up for 2 units each I was going to do instead. SAS +7 (-125), NYK -7, NY&OKC for series (-115 ish) and a tease of NYK to ML & SAS to +11 (-117). I’m using this as a mini case study to see if teasing ideas can be applied well in the NBA. PS after game 1, it’s been proven once again to avoid futures/series bets, I could get better odds after game 1 on OKC now. For the case study (teasing v separate) let’s say it woulda been another 2 units on OKC -6.5 in their game 2, but instead I have them on the ML here with this approach.

When thinking about teasing lines - I think NBA just has much greater variance in final scores and less key numbers than the NFL. Which in theory makes teases less effective overall than NFL, so I’m hoping I’m on the right sides and it won’t matter lol.

The Spurs won outright in 2OT as 6-6.5 point dogs and it was even near 7 at a point (by the time I would’ve played it, back down hence the -125). The problem with my approach is that I have prettier lines, but I’d be 1-0 with two plays pending if I just went ATS.. Anyway, now I have six units pending on a 7 point chalk on the ML and then another 2 on OKC down 1. I like ‘em, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush or something like that and there’s basketball to be played. And am I going to pretend I wouldn’t have liked the Spurs in game 1 vs Min -5 last round (what they would’ve been teased) when I had them on the ML as part of a parlay? I won’t. I would’ve teased them and that could’ve derailed a bet too (they lost game 1 outright by 2 at -10). I gotta keep an eye on this strategy though and reflect after this week bc right now I’ve taken one winner off the table.

After this Knicks games play out, assuming they hold on and win, I’d (in many scenarios) run it back with another 4 unit play on OKC and NY Moneylines in their respective game 2’s. But after the game 2’s, if things play out the way I think, it’ll be time to pause and reflect on the strategy before proceeding. Bc to me… SAS in game 1 was worthy of a 4 unit side (and as will Knicks in game 2 after a win in game 1), but Knicks game 1 & OKC bouncing back in game 2 will be six unit sides if all goes according to plan.

Don’t love the overall exposure when I could be playing with house money, but I made my bed here this week. I’m thinking this Knicks game 1 will be memorable for me regardless.

NBA 5/20 & 5/21/26

Oklahoma City ML & New York Knicks ML (+102) for 4 units

Pending: New York Knicks ML (5/19) & Oklahoma City ML (5/20) (-106) for 2 units

YTD: 5-1, +12 units

PS at the beginning of the Knicks game last night I knew this strategy w the tease (losing the bird in hand I had with the Spurs) was not the *right, disciplined* one and had me nervous. Nervous again at halftime when they were down two.. (but bc of shooting I’d have live bet the Knicks (11% 3pt half vs 38, with 5 more shots). If OT was included it would’ve won, if not it would’ve lost by a hook). And I was really really nervous when the Knicks were down 22 with 7:52 left in the 4th and as I finished up my post calculating it as a loss with a rant disavowing teases and parlays in the NBA. But they pulled it off. They forced overtime and not only that - they outscored them 14-3 in OT and covered the -7 too! So I would’ve just been 2-0 with 2 unit plays (miracle NYK got the -7 but they did), and instead I got a way more dramatic 1-0 4 unit play. If I end up on the right side all 4 times and it turns out the teases just complicated stuff… then maybe next round and moving forward it *is* back to only ATS. If the line adjustment helps on both the Thunder and Knicks, there’s an argument to be made teases definitely have a place and should be a part of my strategy. If one of two needs the help, then teases/parlays (but never 4 sides) proved they could be valuable.. sometimes, in very limited doses, in the NBA for me.

So.. as for my case study on tease-ish’s.. it’s proven that….. I guess I need to see how these next two games go. Four game case study. So far it made no difference either way in +/- but a huge difference is stress lol. I over complicated a 2-0. That’s not sustainable to do regularly. I’m talking about essentially doing it twice in a week here though. I guess the Conf Finals would be the time when lines would be (supposedly) sharp and a strategy like this could work. If the teases help, could be a tool in the toolbelt, if those points don’t matter and I lose a 1-1 push.. then the case study will say thumbs down to the UA teasing/parlaying the NBA at all. Hopefully the sides just roll and none of it will matter though! If you pick ATS right, the rest doesn’t matter.

Onto my final play of this sequence/case study as this brings my Thunder side of the tease up to six. My favorite side (particularly bc I don’t need to pick it ATS) is the desperate Thunder here in game 2. My second side with 6 units of exposure with the first being the Knicks in their game 1, the insane comeback game. I don’t plan on making a habit of max unit plays, but sometimes the situation calls for it! I believe this is one of them. I would absolutely have bet OKC minus the 6.5 too, but I want to see how this set plays out with the teases and six units is my cap.

Looking at the box score also, do I think game 2 will have Wemby go for 41 (on 14/25 shooting) and 24 rebounds while Shai goes 7/23 from the field? Assuming Wemby is actually human, that anomaly jumps out to me. Plus the half court 3 - and they just had a 6 game series against a physical Minnesota team. There has to be a lapse somewhere for the Spurs, at least for a moment.

As for the Knicks, I obviously loved them in game one and I think they start this series out 2–0 and hold Home court against the Cavs. After that heartache Cleveland endured.. Knicks may smoke them, could be another classic. Either way I like them to hold here. 3 units on this side, still a sizable play - but not 6 like NY ECF Game 1 or the currently pending OKC WCF Game 2’s 2 combined plays each. First bets are coming in on Cleveland on one site and 50/50 ATS on another. Public is siding with the Spurs big time fyi.

I’m going with the moneylines but Thunder are -6.5 and Knicks -6. I was considering just laying the lumbers or maybe -5’s (even though I’m not supposed to buy points in NBA…) at -143 each. I love those -5’s. But last season buying my hooks didn’t impact a single play. -5’s would’ve been a compromise, but something I’ve thought to avoid. Can add this element to my case study though when analyzing the results after Thursday’s game.

PS as part of my post I drafted but never posted - when I thought the Cavs were going to hold a 22 point lead with under 8 minutes left and was going to try to abandon teases and parlays… I would’ve played the Thunder -6.5 for 4 units. I like them ATS also. But irrespective of covering ATS, them winning game 2 at home is of my favorite plays of the postseason so far (while also taking into account value). I’m glad I have action on them period, even if it’s just the ML between those two plays.

So if the tease splits and line movement meant nothing like the first two in my case study (although Knicks not only forcing OT and winning, but covering -7 also), then I have to stick with ATS whether I like it or not. If line manipulation helps both, then teases (with 2 sides) gotta be a big part of what I do - in NBA just like NFL… and if one covers the full spread and one needed line moving help to help me win my tease (ish; remember I use the term “tease” loosely - it’s technically a parlay and always bet where if one side pushes, it just reduces the weight, not a loss. If you tease and one side loses per your book, make sure to adjust accordingly - or maybe not use that book if using this strategy. The UA strategy (especially in NFL) brings lines to key numbers frequently and the bet is placed with that in mind as a push if it hits, moving the play to a one side play), then tease(ish)s will be a tool in the arsenal to use sparingly. Not 2x per week or as a part of 100% of NBA games played for 4 games in a row.

NBA

Pending: Oklahoma City ML (5/20) & New York Knicks ML (5/21) (+102) for 4 units

YTD: 6-1, +14 units

Wild stat… before 5/19’s Knicks comeback, in the last 30 years of NBA playoffs, teams up 20+ on the final 8 minutes of the game were 688-1. Now they’re 688-2. Crazy. (saw it on First Things First) Anyway, so glad Knicks came back there.. and then to cover ATS also? Insane!!! Using it in my case study, it’s an overtime cover which throws it off.. bc, handicapping wise, regulation ended with them not covering at all the -7. The tease looked like it would be very helpful once we hit OT. It turned out not to be needed, but an interesting caveat in our analysis of these plays… bc if it was like the first 99.855% of those 689 situations, this case study would be over and I wouldn’t be talking about line manipulation teases or parlays at all in the NBA anymore.

As for OKC on 5/20, when I bet them they were -6.5 and it grew to -8 at my local casino by tip. That’s with 65% ish on SAS, meaning some serious cash (sharps) must’ve come in on OKC. De’Aaron Fox was also questionable (didn’t play game 1) for SAS and was ruled out again for game 2 after participating in the shoot around that day. Thunder ended up winning by 11, but were up as few as 5 with around 1 minute left which had it close... but tease wasn’t ultimately needed.

So.. if the Knicks cover what would’ve been -6.5 ish tomorrow night, then the teases will have created unnecessary risk on four calls that turned out right (lucky some of ‘em, but still). If Knicks win and don’t cover, ok - I can use an occasional 2 team only tease(ish) parlay - it’ll have taken me from 3-1 to 2-0 (with more units on each play) and made me money.. if they lose outright, then the teases will have created damage and taken a 3-1 to a 1-1. I said it was my little case study, gonna try my best to stick with it. Undisciplined futures and 4 team parlays are already kicked to the curb.

For the record, I like my Knicks play at home on the ML here - and am happy with the exposure, I want to see this play out and do think Knicks go to 2-0. But for perspective I would’ve hammered the Thunder in game 2 to the tune of 4 units ATS and this one would probably be more like a 2 unit. I do wonder if lack of slate contributed to how I did the teases, I did think about reducing the tease above to 3 and Thunder ATS for 1, but I was committed to seeing how these last teases shake out. ATS, yeah I still would take the Knicks and think they’ll win bc that loss was demoralizing. I’m thinking Knicks by 10-ish, but this could also be the stomp ‘em out 20+ game before Cleveland gives at least a little more back in game 3.

NBA 5/22 & 5/23/26

Oklahoma City Thunder +2 (-117) for 2.5 units
Cleveland Cavaliers ML -122 for 1.5 units

YTD: 7-1, +18 units

FYI Knicks’s line for game 2 was down to -5 from -6.5 the day before half hour before tip. Bets were around 50/50 so meant some bigger money must’ve come in on Cleveland to move the line. Final game of my sequence and case study for teasing/parlays vs ATS only… and the Knicks… won by double digits (16)!

Which means I took what would’ve been a 4-0 run (+10 units (2, 2, 4, 2 respectively)) and made it 3-0ish run with all teases (also +10 units), but with a lot more drama and instead of playing ahead, with house money, was risking it all to buy a couple points I didn’t end up needing any of (even though Knicks did need OT, they still covered the -7 even if I don’t consider the -7 a “handicapping win,” it was just lucky). I had a less effective and efficient betting strategy than I could’ve just to make me feel better on the front end. No buying hooks etc around +/-5-7 mattered either (what I perceive as the key numbers in the NBA), so it may make the most sense to just let the ATS plays rip, try not to lose *too much* sleep if I don’t have the right number, and if I’m on the right winner but they don’t cover the spread (hopefully that doesn’t happen too, too much) that’s just the cost of doing business sometimes.

OK! If you’re still reading, you’ve probably read far too much rambling over the past week. But onto my analysis of these plays…

I like Oklahoma City +2. I like them on the money line too obviously, but I’m choosing to take the points – why not? I can see SAS winning by 1 or 2 if they pull it off, but I hope not! I absolutely think Oklahoma City will be winning this series. I thought so before game one, I still thought so after game one, and I definitely think so after game two. It is very possible they split in San Antonio though, neither team is going to give up this series easily. I think it could easily be six or seven games and figuring out the seesaw between which team to bet on, on a given day, is going to be tough. Game two felt sustainable for both teams – when looking at the numbers, there were too many things in the San Antonio box score that were just unsustainable in my opinion. I said it in my analysis for game two, Wemby isn’t going to be able to have the best game of his life every game and Shai seems to get better as each series goes along. I saw some stats that proved that as well while watching first things first. He was ready to be anointed back to back MVP and finals, MVP and champion… All of a sudden a 7 foot five guy has one amazing game and everybody in the country thinks Oklahoma City is done. I just don’t think that’s the case. Granted, if Oklahoma City does go up 2–1, which I expect, I’d expect a great counter punch from San Antonio in game four.

As for Cleveland, I’m seeing them -2.5 right now which I would like them ATS, but I’m choosing the moneyline just because I have a problem with efficiently wagering no matter how many “case studies” I do. Plus Knicks are the better team so if Cle holds home court (which they may), one of these two games will be very close imo.

Anyway… this is just my execution; I’m open in discussing that I’m not always the most efficient. Everyone needs to do what’s right for them and ultimately make their own plays (including myself)! So, I like them here because I don’t see the Knicks sweeping this series. That game one was so painful for Cleveland… game two was less painful – I just couldn’t see how they would have the emotional endurance or confidence to come back to Madison Square Garden and win that second ball game. They did not fortunately, but this is still a decent team. I do think New York is quite excellent, but I still think they would get beat pretty handily by either team in the West. Particularly if that team is Oklahoma City… But I still think the Spurs would beat the Knicks. I do think that series would be closer though.

NBA 5/22 & 5/23/26

Oklahoma City Thunder +2 (-117) for 2.5 units
Cleveland Cavaliers ML -122 for 1.5 units

YTD: 7-1, +18 units

FYI Knicks’s line for game 2 was down to -5 from -6.5 the day before half hour before tip. Bets were around 50/50 so meant some bigger money must’ve come in on Cleveland to move the line. Final game of my sequence and case study for teasing/parlays vs ATS only… and the Knicks… won by double digits (16)!

Which means I took what would’ve been a 4-0 run (+10 units (2, 2, 4, 2 respectively)) and made it 3-0ish run with all teases (also +10 units), but with a lot more drama and instead of playing ahead, with house money, was risking it all to buy a couple points I didn’t end up needing any of (even though Knicks did need OT, they still covered the -7 even if I don’t consider the -7 a “handicapping win,” it was just lucky). I had a less effective and efficient betting strategy than I could’ve just to make me feel better on the front end. No buying hooks etc around +/-5-7 mattered either (what I perceive as the key numbers in the NBA), so it may make the most sense to just let the ATS plays rip, try not to lose *too much* sleep if I don’t have the right number, and if I’m on the right winner but they don’t cover the spread (hopefully that doesn’t happen too, too much) that’s just the cost of doing business sometimes.

OK! If you’re still reading, you’ve probably read far too much rambling over the past week. But onto my analysis of these plays…

I like Oklahoma City +2. I like them on the money line too obviously, but I’m choosing to take the points – why not? I can see SAS winning by 1 or 2 if they pull it off, but I hope not! I absolutely think Oklahoma City will be winning this series. I thought so before game one, I still thought so after game one, and I definitely think so after game two. It is very possible they split in San Antonio though, neither team is going to give up this series easily. I think it could easily be six or seven games and figuring out the seesaw between which team to bet on, on a given day, is going to be tough. Game two felt sustainable for both teams – when looking at the numbers, there were too many things in the San Antonio box score that were just unsustainable in my opinion. I said it in my analysis for game two, Wemby isn’t going to be able to have the best game of his life every game and Shai seems to get better as each series goes along. I saw some stats that proved that as well while watching first things first. He was ready to be anointed back to back MVP and finals, MVP and champion… All of a sudden a 7 foot five guy has one amazing game and everybody in the country thinks Oklahoma City is done. I just don’t think that’s the case. Granted, if Oklahoma City does go up 2–1, which I expect, I’d expect a great counter punch from San Antonio in game four.

As for Cleveland, I’m seeing them -2.5 right now which I would like them ATS, but I’m choosing the moneyline just because I have a problem with efficiently wagering no matter how many “case studies” I do. Plus Knicks are the better team so if Cle holds home court (which they may), one of these two games will be very close imo.

Anyway… this is just my execution; I’m open in discussing that I’m not always the most efficient. Everyone needs to do what’s right for them and ultimately make their own plays (including myself)! So, I like them here because I don’t see the Knicks sweeping this series. That game one was so painful for Cleveland… game two was less painful – I just couldn’t see how they would have the emotional endurance or confidence to come back to Madison Square Garden and win that second ball game. They did not fortunately, but this is still a decent team. I do think New York is quite excellent, but I still think they would get beat pretty handily by either team in the West. Particularly if that team is Oklahoma City… But I still think the Spurs would beat the Knicks. I do think that series would be closer though.

I also wanted to add this (sorry if it double posted) - for Cleveland: I just want to point out that they shot 39% from the field and a decimal 26% from deep. I think they shoot better in game three in Cleveland. New York shot 52% from the field. I don’t think those numbers are sustainable, I think Cleveland’s look a bit better in game three, and I think that’s why they’re able to protect their home court in game 3.

NBA

Pending: Cleveland Cavaliers ML -122 for 1.5 units

YTD: 8-1, +20.5 units

Spurs took a 15-0 lead before OKC woke up. Tied back up by the 2nd quarter, was up 7 at halftime and controlled through the second half to win by 15 to go up 2-1. Both teams had bright spots but room for improvement too. OKC had little to improve on; for example, Shai shot poorly from the field (6/17, but had 12 assists - played well but his teammates were shooting the lights out), but in terms of depth (wow great GM work).. OKC went nuts. What statistical things would be tough to repeat for OKC after they shot 48% from the field and 45% from 3? How about… Jaylen Williams 5/6 from 3, isn’t he banged up a little? Jared McCain had 24 off the bench, and the team as a whole went 17/38 from deep. Yes they beat them comfortably but on SAS’s side Castle went 1/8 from the field, their whole bench struggled, and they made 4 less 3’s than OKC even though they shot 3 more attempts. Wemby being anointed like that after game 1 was such an overreaction.. he had a quiet 26 and only 4 boards. I don’t think he’s done yet either - but that team does have to be getting tired. I think we get the final push from SAS before OKC eventually wins the series in (I believe) six.

A very tough fought series that now people could overreact and say Thunder in 5. In game 4, bc this series really has been relatively evenly matched and hard fought throughout, (even though I do believe Thunder will win the series).. i like the Spurs, because I don’t think Thunder wins both 3 & 4 in San Antonio. If they did, four might be on like a final shot, etc. The way they handled them in game 3 gives me a little pause - but SAS are a good home team. Both are great teams all over, but this will be a last hard fought battle by the Spurs.. and then Thunder probably win it in six…. maybe it could be 7, but I think after 2-2, Thunder would close it out from there. I thought that last year against Indiana in the finals though and it took them all 7. Regardless, for game 4 - we’ll likely get the Spurs best punch.

Did I say I could use two teamers sparingly? Looking at past posts.. no I didn’t - that was if any (even one) of my case studies examples used any of the line manipulation to help get the win (Knicks game 1 are a weird exception as I’ve discussed). I am trying to learn here. They did give me unnecessary confidence though.. reason I bring this up is.. well, what if I don’t want to just jam a tease pair? Bc tbh.. my case study said I made the same money had I played ATS each game or the way I did it.. but the way I did it had a lot more unnecessary risk.. anyway I was looking at taking the Spurs to +5. I’m looking at probably a two unit play either way. I estimate taking the line to SAS would be around -225 ish. That’s nuts right? The Spurs, when they lose (before this series) it just was never by a lot. It’s just worth noting and part of why I liked SAS in game 1. Anyway, I’ll be thinking on it - but that’s my initial thinking for game 4 of SAS/OKC. I do think Thunder win this series though and 2-2 back to OKC would lead to some interesting potential betting opportunities.

Reason I don’t love a pair is bc regardless of what happens in game 3 of Cle/NYK, I don’t think I’ll love any side in game 4 and I’m not trying to put any more action than the 1.5 units on Cle in game 3. That said, if Knicks upset the Cavs (Cavs are around -2.5) and go up 3-0, I may put 1-1.5 units on Cle ML just bc I don’t think that team is getting swept. I’ve said from the beginning thought that I think Knicks win the series, so that’s not wavering. But imo I’m just not sure if I’d believe Cle wins 2 at home here. 1, yes I think so and I think this is their shot.. 3-0 and the win is just for pride, it’s over by that point. But 2-1 and you give a city like Cleveland something to cheer for, for a little bit longer. I’m from Buffalo, I get it. So I like Cavs here in game 3 (a little), but if they win - go up 2-1 like I expect - I’d have no clue for game 4. I would lean Knicks if Cle wins in a statistical anomaly game 3; especially if they win only bc Cle gets very hot shooting. But there’s a good chance I’m not touching game 4 regardless of what happens in Game 3.

NBA 5/24/26

San Antonio Spurs ML -130 for 2 units

Pending: Cleveland Cavaliers ML -122 (5/23) for 1.5 units

I talk about why I like the Spurs a lot in my last post - and I decided to go with … the moneyline … bc I did all these case studies to encourage myself to be more disciplined. If they lose by 1-5, then well.. like I keep trying to tell myself.. it happens sometimes. It’s worse to over-gamble.. as I keep trying to prove to myself. PS +5 alone would’ve been -275, that’s almost 3:1! Way too much vig for one game/one play imo.

Also, I did mention in my last post that I didn’t want any more action on Cle in game 2, but I did absolutely consider doing a Spurs game 4 +5 & Cleveland game 3 +5 tease-ish parlay for appx -127 (would’ve been 1.5 units on Spurs ML, 1.5 already placed on Cle ML, and 1.5 on the tease itself), but talking it out.. my pops said I should probably just leave it as is (meaning Cle game 3 ML). Also, I’ve done so much of these case studies that have shown me.. that wouldn’t be an efficient decision. I’m standing pat with my smaller Cle ML play.. and then I’ll be rooting for the Spurs in game 4 to try to bring it back to OKC 2-2.

Two more games of research here - but this time I’m viewing the tease possibility from afar and put my hard earned money on the disciplined approach. Maybe I am learning… lol. And ofc this could be the time I need the line manipulation. But I will point out that I took the Thunder in game 3 and I’m sure I would’ve considered teasing them to +7 (they won outright at +2) or something like that had my case study showed any value whatsoever from any of the teases. Then once again like the sequence that started it all (Spurs plus points in game 1 of WCF), I would’ve been giving up a win in hand (last night’s OKC) and the opportunity to play with a little house money tonight.

PS something to look at when studying these games is both with Cle (-2.5) and SAS (-2), I’m going with the moneyline instead of ATS. That hasn’t made a difference yet (that I can think of), but just throwing it out there as another angle to study.

FYI - I’m likely not touching either game 4 in the conference finals. Good luck all!

NBA

YTD: 9-2, +20.67 units

The Cavs went down 3-0 and lost by 13. While I don’t hate the bet - Knicks just may be way way better than the Cavs and Cleveland may just not have the defense to stop that much offense from that many different players. Down 3-0, Cavs may just give up and get swept (especially after that heartbreaking game 1) or they’ll have a ton of pride and put themselves in position to probably get gentlemen swept. Either way, game 4 is not a great bet imo. Anyway.. the tease to Cle +5 wouldn’t have mattered either and doing Cle on the ML vs -2.5 didn’t matter. I’m surprised- I thought if Cle lost at home there they’d have more fight than that and at least keep it close.. but Knicks did shoot 56% from the field (39% from deep) - great numbers. Cle also shot well, 50% from the field, but only 29% from deep. Harden & Mobley combined for a poor 2/13 from deep, although they both had good overall games with above 50% overall from the field and 19 & 24 points, respectively, so maybe Knicks are just way better (or Cavs/rest of East aren’t that good) and could give the West champs at least an interesting series. It surprised me last year that it went to seven, that’s for sure. I had OKC -1.5 games in the series. (Part of my ridiculous NBA betting year, last year, of single game bets being 13-8-1 and all other bets (parlays/futures/series bets) at an atrocious 0-9).

In fact, I also saved myself ~1.9 units by avoiding that 1.5 unit tease of Cavs game 3 & Spurs game 4, but cost myself 0.18 units betting Cle on the ML instead of ATS.

As for my disciplined play of SAS on the ML instead of paying ridiculous vig on them +5 (-275), Spurs were still able to get it done and won a tight one.. by 21. They smoked ‘em. OKC shot 33% from the field and 18% from deep, that’s terrible. SAS shot a bad 39% from the field and 27% from deep.

SAS were -3 on game day (at my casino). So the line manipulation wouldn’t have even impacted either leg of the tease and I didn’t need to bet them on the moneyline (either Cle or SAS), they covered the -3. I would’ve taken a 1-1 couple of days (plus a very small amount of units) and made it 1-2 minus more than ~1.7 units. Ok! Finally have enough data.. can’t tease in the NBA and buying points doesn’t seem to matter either.. and I’m beginning to believe there aren’t even any “key numbers” in the NBA… especially the playoffs. In the playoffs teams may foul with less than 10 seconds left, down 5, in a never give up attitude. The 5 doesn’t seem to matter either.

Spurs won by 21 and now we go back to OKC for a very exciting game 5.. in this moment, even after a Spurs win, if I had to pick - I’d still think Thunder win this series btw. Jaylen Williams was out tonight but idk what his health situation will be moving forward. This was so brutal and Thunder just had no chance.. was it a super let down game after already stealing one in San Antonio? Or are the Spurs and their defense finding their groove? Probably the former, but bc of injuries on both sides and a bunch of question marks - I may not be touching game 5. Especially since I’m trying to only bet ATS; if I was forced to pick right now I’d say Thunder by 5. Just looked up Tuesday’s line and it’s OKC -5.5 as I write this. So, I’d buy the hook bc I still have a problem with +/-5 and go with the Thunder, but game 5 may also be a great “no touch” data collecting game before game 6. My next bet may not be til Weds or Thurs, potentially betting on one (or both) of the game 5’s.

Alrighty! Last item to study. I mentioned when I bet the Spurs ML that I wanted to study my history of ML bets in the NBA vs ATS and see if paying the extra vig to bet ML actually effected anything or if it just made me feel better. I did not analyze every leg of a parlay bc that would take forever and get kind of complicated (bc would I have bet it solo ATS? Like a ten point chalk, for example, if not part of a parlay), but I did include live bets (there were a couple). I went back through this whole thread (not any past threads bc I’m not *that* crazy) and it started on August 27th, 2023 - nearly 3 years of data.

I bet the moneyline in the NBA 9 times since Aug 2023 and those 9 bets would’ve gone 9-0 ATS. One of those MLs was an underdog (small dog maybe 2 or so points) that won outright and most of the time when I bet the ML it was appx under like -135. That means .. that betting the moneyline instead of small ATS spread is just to make me feel better. The rules I posted for NBA in the very first post on this thread back in Aug of 2023 was right and it took three more years (and some hard earned money) to come full circle to what should’ve been the strategy the whole time. Dang I gotta work on discipline in execution lol.

I meant game 4 of ECF, game 5 of WCF. Next two games in general and my mistake there - already bet game 4 of the WCF on SAS. If I play game 5 of WCF, it would be the Thunder. But so many question marks as of now and Jaylen Williams health and status is important.

If I were *forced to* pick game 4 of NY/Cle, I’d run it back with Cle - but I’m not touching that myself, posting a pick on that, or putting any money on Cle in game 4. “Not get swept” is not good enough motivation for me to bet them, I don’t think - not when they truly believed they could win the series in the fourth quarter of game 1. And they’re the worst team. Knicks actually may be pretty good. I don’t think they do but, my goodness, how crazy would some people go if they won the title? Absolutely bonkers.

Correcting typos:

*I bet the ML in NBA 9 times since Aug ‘23.. whoever won the ML covered the spread each of the 9 times. I was not 9-0 to clarify (I think I did well though on those under 2:1 chalks to, I think it was, 7-2), but needed to quickly correct what I meant. Meant the ML over playing ATS made no difference all 9 times; I would’ve either won it or lost it whether I went ML or ATS.

*Cavs are the “worse” team between Cle/NY imo, not the “worst” team. The “worst” team prob didn’t make the playoffs lol

*and ofc I meant three posts ago that started this sequence, that I’m likely not touching the next two games (ECF game 4, WCF game 5) but if I do - it would be Thunder game 5. If Williams is playing and is good to go.. then.. yeah I can see me coming (back) around esp if Spurs are missing a guy or two. Previously when I went Spurs game 4, I was thinking OKC game 5 all the way - but man they got clobbered and now have more injury challenges to work through. I need more info first to consider it. I will def not be betting game 4 of ECF though, but if I had to say a lean it’d be Cle. No money on a lean though.

NBA 5/26/26

Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 for 2 units

I went back and forth on this game 5 matchup as you know - and it’s been a long time since I steered into the teeth of line movement away from my side.. weight seems to be on the Spurs and Jalen Williams’s status is still up in the air. That said, I still think Thunder win this game on their home court (and I’m trying to just stick with ATS). If Jalen plays, I’ll feel even better about it.

If the Thunder were with a full healthy arsenal, I’d be looking at a bigger play on OKC (maybe 4 or even 5 units), but there’s still a lot of question marks.

Btw - after slamming their opponents (which the Spurs did last game), they tapped the break imo in previous series (like against the Wolves). Now I know you’ll see the final scores and say “what are you talking about” - and I’m not talking about skill, I’m talking about effort and desperation (look at some of the FGA numbers in the box scores). I think the Thunder come into this game at home more desperate and I said last post (or one of em Thunder in six), but with all the question marks - I’m thinking it may go to seven here.

I think Thunder win this one by 5-7 btw. Not that key numbers exist in the NBA (especially playoffs), as we’ve proven thought my rambling.

YTD: 10-2, +22.67 units

Thunder opened at -5.5, but that thing was -3.5 by tip. Like I said in my last post, I’m rarely trying to be on the opposite side of the sharps (or at least the weight), but this time it happened to work out and at least I didn’t get the worst of the number. Thunder won by 13 despite Jalen Williams not playing - but they shot the ball 9 less times than SAS. Thunder shot an on fire 48% from the field and 44% from deep; Spurs shot a much worse 40% from the field and 29% from deep. This game showed a ton of Thunder depth getting involved, bench points, and energy - that’s hard to replicate, especially on the road. If Jalen Williams doesn’t play again in game 6, it’s hard to believe Thunder would be able to duplicate that effort exactly and would need another 4/15 (0/5 from deep) night from Wemby and another 0/4 from deep from Fox. When I look at that box score, pretty much every Thunder stat line will be tough to replicate again in game six, imo.