San Antonio VS New York

The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Antonio's last 14 games.
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against New York.
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against New York.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 7 games on the road.
New York is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games.
New York is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games against San Antonio.
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.

Washington Mystics

Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Indiana

Indiana Fever

Indiana is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 13 games on the road
Indiana is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Washington
Indiana is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
Indiana is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Washington

Connecticut Sun

Connecticut is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Connecticut is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New York
Connecticut is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing New York
Connecticut is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York


New York Liberty

New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games
New York is 4-19-1 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
New York is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games on the road
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Connecticut
New York is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing Connecticut
New York is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Connecticut

Spurs @ Knicks — NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Trends

The biggest storyline is that New York has stolen both games in San Antonio and now returns to Madison Square Garden with a 2-0 series lead.
Historically, teams leading 2-0 in the NBA Finals win the series the vast majority of the time, and sportsbooks have dramatically shifted toward the Knicks.

Head-to-Head Finals Trends
Knicks lead the series 2-0.
Both Finals games stayed Under the closing total.
Game 1: Knicks 105-95 Spurs (210 total points).
Game 2: Knicks 105-104 Spurs (209 total points).
Series Under record: 2-0.

Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Knicks are 13-3 ATS this postseason.
Spurs are 12-8 ATS this postseason.
Knicks have won 13 consecutive playoff games outright.
New York is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite this season and 5-2 ATS as a home favorite in the playoffs.

Spurs @ Knicks Game 3 — Market Intelligence Update (as of June 7)

The challenge right now is that Circa, Pinnacle, and BetMGM have not publicly released full Game 3 ticket/handle splits, so anyone claiming exact percentages is likely speculating.
What we can analyze is the actual market behavior and the limited sportsbook data available.

1. Is There Reverse Line Movement?
Not a strong one yet.

What makes this unusual:
Knicks have won both games outright as road underdogs.
Public sentiment has shifted heavily toward New York.
Sportsbooks are carrying significant Knicks futures liability. BetMGM has reported large Knicks championship bets and sportsbooks are rooting against a Knicks title because of exposure.

Normally after:
Winning Games 1 and 2 on the road
Taking a 2-0 lead
Returning home
you might expect Knicks -4 or higher.
Instead, the market has generally stayed around Knicks -2 to -2.5.
That is not classic reverse-line movement, but it is evidence of resistance to moving higher.

What that usually means
Professional bettors appear willing to grab Spurs +2.5 or better.
Books are not eager to move toward Knicks -3.5 because they would likely attract sharp Spurs money.

Current read:
Public = Knicks
Sharps = mixed, but likely more Spurs interest than the public realizes.

2. Ticket % vs Money %
The closest relevant betting-split data we have came from the Finals opener and early series betting.

DraftKings reported:
61% of spread tickets on the Knicks
64% of spread handle on the Knicks

Series futures data showed:
56% of bets on Knicks
65% of money wagered on Knicks

That is important.
When money percentage exceeds ticket percentage:

65% money vs 56% tickets
it indicates larger wagers backing that side.

For the series market, that was genuine sharp support for New York.

For Game 3
An Estimate based on current market conditions:

Market----------- Likely Tickets---------------- Likely Money
Knicks --------------------65-75%-------------------------------60-70%
Knicks Spread------ ---60-70%-------------------------------50-60%
Under ----------------55-65% ------------------------60-70%

The most likely sharp/public disagreement is:
Public on Knicks
Sharps selectively on Spurs +2.5
Sharps also showing interest in Under 216.5

3. What Circa Would Normally Tell You
Circa is one of the most respected sharp books in the U.S.

If Circa:
moves to Knicks -3 while recreational books remain -2.5,
that's bullish for New York.

If Circa:
moves to Knicks -2 while public books stay -2.5,
that's a sharp Spurs signal.

Right now the market is largely clustered around the same number.
That suggests no overwhelming sharp position has emerged.

4. Pinnacle Signal
Historically, Pinnacle is often the cleanest indicator of respected money.

Things to note for Monday morning:

Bullish Knicks signal
Pinnacle moves:
-2.5 → -3
while public books lag.
Bullish Spurs signal
Pinnacle:
-2.5 → -2
despite heavy Knicks ticket volume.
That would indicate respected bettors are taking Spurs.

At the moment the market is behaving more like:

"Knicks deserve favoritism, but not by much."

5. BetMGM & DraftKings Liability Position
The most revealing recent information is that sportsbooks are now carrying significant Knicks exposure.

Books already took:
large Knicks futures wagers,
long-shot Knicks championship bets,
additional action after the 2-0 series lead.

That means sportsbooks would generally prefer:
Spurs win Game 3,
Spurs extend the series.

Yet they still have not inflated the Knicks line dramatically.

That is another subtle indication that bookmakers respect San Antonio enough not to hand out a cheap Spurs number.