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7/27 Statistical Advantages
#960646 07/13/26 07:47 PM
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Re: 7/27 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #962319 07/27/26 10:38 AM
Joined: Apr 2023
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New England
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New England
MLB Trends

Seattle/Texas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games.
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games against Texas.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Texas' last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas' last 5 games against Seattle.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas' last 13 games at home.
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle.

Baltimore/Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games.
Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games against Detroit.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games.
Detroit is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games against Baltimore.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home.

Philadelphia/Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games.
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Miami.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games.
Miami is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games.
Miami is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.

Arizona/Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games.
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Pittsburgh.
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Arizona.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona.

Toronto/Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games.
Toronto is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games.
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Washington.
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games.
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games against Toronto.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home.

Cleveland/Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games.
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games against Cincinnati.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games against Cleveland.
Cincinnati is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home.

Atlanta/NYM
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games.
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games against an opponent in the National League.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets' last 11 games.
NY Mets is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets' last 5 games against Atlanta.
NY Mets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.

NYY/CWS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees' last 5 games.
NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Chicago White Sox.
NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago White Sox's last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games.
Chicago White Sox is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Chicago White Sox is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees.

Chicago/STL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago Cubs' last 7 games.
Chicago Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against St. Louis.
Chicago Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago Cubs' last 8 games when playing on the road against St. Louis.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis' last 7 games.
St. Louis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of St. Louis' last 20 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis' last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago Cubs.

Houston/LA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games.
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Angels' last 12 games.
LA Angels is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Angels' last 14 games against Houston.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels' last 5 games at home.

Boston/Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games.
Boston is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games.
Boston is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games against Athletics.
Boston is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games on the road.
Athletics is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Athletics' last 8 games against Boston.
Athletics is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Athletics is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston.

Milwaukee/SF
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games against San Francisco.
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Milwaukee is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games against Milwaukee.
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
San Francisco is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.

Re: 7/27 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #962412 07/27/26 09:48 PM
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 27,520
Likes: 316
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Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 27,520
Likes: 316
Updated Betting Market Report — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
July 27, 2026 — 9:40 PM ET


Moneyline Betting Splits (Public vs. Money)

Sportsbook*************** Side**************Tickets %**********Money %************Market Read
DraftKings----------------- Red Sox ML------- 93% bets--------- 99% money-----------Heavy sharp/public support BOS
Circa-------------------------Red Sox ML------- 79% bets--------- 99% money-----------Big-money players on Boston

Market Movement
Opening line: Red Sox around -150
Current: around -175 to -180 at some markets
Athletics moved from about +130 toward +150 range

Sharp Money Signal
This is not a normal public-only move:
Tickets: heavily favor Boston
Money: even more heavily favors Boston
Line moved toward Boston despite already high price
That indicates larger wagers are also landing on the Red Sox, not just casual public action.

Sportsbook Liability
Current liability estimate:
Books likely need Athletics +1.5 / Athletics ML

Reason:
Boston is attracting almost all moneyline dollars.
A Red Sox win creates a significant payout exposure for sportsbooks.

Important Betting Angle
This is a danger spot:
Boston is the better team.
Sharp money agrees with the public.
But the price has become expensive (around -175/-180).

The better value may be:
1/ Red Sox F5 moneyline (avoid bullpen variance)
2/ Red Sox -1.5 only if price improves
3/ Full-game ML is strong but expensive


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