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9/12 Statistical Advantages
#966696 08/23/26 06:43 PM
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Re: 9/12 Statistical Advantages
FREAK #970093 48 minutes ago
Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 3,011
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Lake Grove
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Saturday’s games

Arizona State @ Texas A&M (-15.5)
Arizona State (1-0)
Last two years, ASU went 11-3/8-5.
Sun Devils beat a I-AA team 70-7 last week.
ASU has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sun Devils have 29 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Boley started 10 games at Kentucky last year.

Under Dillingham, ASU is 5-5-1 ATS in non-league games.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 12-9 ATS as an underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 7-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU 12-10-1 ATS in games coming off a win.

Texas A&M (1-0)
Last two years, Aggies went 8-5/11-2.
A&M (-40) won their opener 50-0 over Missouri State.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 81 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB Reed has 21 career starts.

In his career, Elko is 15-20 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Elko is 11-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Elko, Aggies are 7-15 ATS as a favorite
Aggies are 4-10 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Elko is 7-12ATS in non-conference games.

These teams haven’t met since 2015.

Oklahoma (-5.5) @ Michigan
Oklahoma (1-0)
Last three years, Oklahoma went 10-3/6-7/10-3.
Oklahoma (-40) won its opener 51-0 over UTEP
Oklahoma has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Sooners have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mateer has 24 career starts.

Under Venables, Oklahoma is 5-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2017, Oklahoma is 11-18-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Sooners are 16-8 ATS in last 24 non-conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 13-18-1 ATS last 32 games coming off a win

Michigan (1-0)
Last week, Michigan nipped WMU 13-12, on a last play Hail Mary.
Wolverines won despite being minus-3 in turnovers.
Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Michigan has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Underwood has 14 career starts.

Since 2019, Michigan is 7-10 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Michigan is 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Michigan is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
Wolverines outgained Western Michigan 276-221 last week.
Michigan is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.

Last year, Oklahoma (-5) beat Michigan 24-13.
Sooners outgained Michigan 408-208.

Tennessee (-12.5) @ Georgia Tech
Tennessee (1-0)
Last four years, Vols are 38-14 SU.
Vols beat a I-AA team 56-9 last week.
Tennessee has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Vols have 94 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Brandon was 13-17/226 last week.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 15-12-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Heupel, Vols are 21-21-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 18-7 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Heupel is 25-11 ATS in non-conference games.

Georgia Tech (0-1)
Last three years, Tech went 7-6/7-6/9-4
LW, Tech (-6) lost 14-13 at home to Colorado.
Yellow Jackets have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Yellow Jackets have 86 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Soph QB Mendoza is brother of Raiders’ QB Fernando Mendoza.

Under Key, Tech is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Key, Tech is 12-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Key, Yellow Jackets are 7-7 ATS in non-ACC games.
Tech is 0-12 SU/5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs SEC teams.

These teams haven’t met since 2017.

Wake Forest (-3) @ Purdue
Wake Forest (1-0)
Wake Forest won its opener 38-16 over Akron.
Deacons outgained Akron, 559-305
Deacons have 3 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Wake Forest has 25 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Lopez has 23 starts (South Alabama/UNC)

In his career, coach Dickert is 6-4 as a road favorite.
Since 2022, Wake is 2-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Dickert, Wake is 5-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Under Dickert, Wake is 5-3 ATS games coming off a win.

Purdue (1-9, 0-7)
Last 3+ years, Purdue is 8-29 SU.
Purdue won its opener 44-19 over a I-AA team.
Boilermakers have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Browne has 14 career starts.

Since 2022, Purdue is 1-13 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Odom is 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Purdue is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-league games.
Purdue is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Boilers are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 home games.

These teams haven’t met since 2003.

Alabama (-10.5) @ Kentucky
Alabama (1-0)
Alabama ran for 227 yards, routed East Carolina 48-10 LY.
Alabama outgained the Pirates, 487-162
Alabama has 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 30 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Russell was 18-30/256 passing LW.

Under DeBoer, Alabama is 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 11-12-1 as a road favorite.
Crimson Tide is 17-9-1 ATS in its last 27 SEC games.
In his career, DeBoer is 25-25-1 ATS in conference games.
Alabama is 18-13-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.

Kentucky (1-0)
Kentucky beat a I-AA team 45-13 last week.
Coach Stein was the OC at Oregon from 2023-25.
Wildcats have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Wildcats have 89 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB Minchey was a backup at Notre Dame.

Kentucky is 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
Last five years, Kentucky is 21-19 ATS in SEC games.
Wildcats are 9-7 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
LW, Kentucky gave up 246 passing yards to a I-AA team.

This is teams’ second meeting since 2020.
Alabama won last eight series games.
Crimson Tide covered four of last five meetings.

Arizona @ BYU (-7.5)
Arizona (1-0)
Arizona’s last three years: 10-3/4-8/9-4
Wildcats beat a I-AA team 35-7 last week.
Arizona has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Wildcats have 61 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Fifita has 23 career starts

Under Brennan, Arizona is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 18-17 ATS as a road underdog.
Arizona is 8-11 ATS in its last 19 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 40-33-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 12-14 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.

BYU (1-0)
Last two years, BYU went 11-2/12-2
BYU beat a I-AA team 63-7 last week.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bachmeier started 14 games last year.

BYU is 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
Sitake 21-23 ATS as a home favorite.
BYU is 7-4 ATS in last 11 conference games.
BYU is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-2 in BYU’s last six games.

BYU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Mississippi State (-1.5) @ Minnesota
Mississippi State (1-0)
Last three years, Miss State is 12-25 SU.
Last week, Bulldogs (-28) beat UL-Monroe 62-13.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bulldogs have 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Taylor has three career starts.

Bulldogs are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Under Lebby, Miss State is 7-4 ATS.
Under Lebby, Miss State is 8-7-1 ATS in SEC games.
Bulldogs are 16-12-2 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.

Minnesota (1-0)
Minnesota had winning seasons three of last four years.
Gophers beat a I-AA team 59-7 last week.
Gophers have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Minnesota has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lindsey started 13 games last year.

Under Fleck, Minnesota is 11-9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Fleck is 13-14-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Minnesota is 8-10-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 31-18-1 ATS in non-league games.
In his career, Fleck is 39-30-2 ATS as an underdog.

These teams haven’t met in the last 20 years.

Duke @ Illinois (-6)
Duke (1-0)
Duke has had four consecutive winning seasons.
Blue Devils (-9) beat Tulane 17-3 last week.
Blue Devils have 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.

Duke has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Eget started 18 games at San Jose State.
Duke is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Under Diaz, Duke is 4-3 ATS as a road underdog.

In his career, Diaz is 10-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Diaz, Duke is 3-7-1 ATS tin non-conference games.

Illinois (1-0)
Illinois was 10-3/9-4 the last two years.
Illini beat UAB 42-23 last week (outgained 413-332)
Illinois has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Illini has 70 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Houser has 27 career starts.

Under Bielema, Illinois is 11-11-2 ATS as home favorites.
In his career, Bielema is 43-39-2 ATS as home favorites.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 11-7-1 ATS in non-league games.
In his career, Bielema is 37-34-2 ATS in non-league games.
Illinois is 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Illinois (-2.5) won 45-19 at Duke last year.
Yardage was even; Illini was +5 in turnovers.


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