NFL 9/20 & 9/21/26
TB Bucs -2.5 & Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-167) for 3 units
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 & LA Rams -1 (-143) for 2 units
Pending:
Detroit Lions ML (9/13) & Tampa Bay Bucs (9/20) -137 for 2 units
YTD: 1-2, -9.09 units
Reflection:
As I type this first part of reflection Monday morning after a rough Chargers defeat.. (heavy vig, multi leg strategies means when the L’s come, they usually find a way to reallllly sting)… I think to myself - can Patrick Mahomes step up & keep it close (or win) vs the Broncos and save my season from digging too deep too early? I continue typing after the game.. yes he can and did. Chiefs dominated and won 31-10. I obviously, this week, am bummed bc the five sides I liked went 4-1 straight up and I had them all ML or plus points. They also went 3-2 ATS had I bet that way, but bc of my strategy .. and a misstep being overexposed .. I got smoked. I’m steadfast, I have my rules in place - at least for this season - but I walked right into this rake in week 1, even knowing how funky week 1 can be.
Bucs/Ravens/Rams analysis:
For those of you keeping track at home, this brings both the Bucs side and the Ravens side to 5 units each, Rams a 2 unit play.
Rams going from - “wow look at Ravens/Rams week 2” as the tease of the week to some bad news with No Myles Garrett for a bit. That concerns me a little bit, but are we really taking them from heavy SB fave to losing to the Giants at home … in 72 hours without losing their QB? I’m not overcorrecting that far. I had said going into Sunday for week 2, they’ll either have pulled off a tough divisional win in primetime or they’ll have lost a tough one in Dallas. LA has extended time to prepare after Australia and week 1 was embarrassing. PS I had to go -1 to make the play -143, moneyline would’ve made it -152 and against my (now and forever moving forward extremely strict) rules.
For the Bucs, already covered it a little above but I’ll add that nothing changed after week 1. Deshaun will hopefully struggle again and then probably gets benched. Bucs lost a tough one but had 4 turnovers in week 1. They can move to first in their division with a win here lol.
Ravens looked really good in week 1 - this team is excellent. I know - going back to the well against the Saints on the road is a risky proposition, that team could take steps forward this year and next. But an argument can be made that they tapped the tank in week 1’s almost comeback - although wow, all those yards and 3 turnovers. I guess they were playing from behind, but they were for sure the “right” side at +7 in week 1 vs Det ATS and honestly, debatably, moneyline. I don’t think they do it again - but this bet is more about Lamar Jackson and his 25-5 career record against the NFC. Saints were also 0-4 against good non div teams on the road last year and Det last week was a dome if that means anything. This may be one of the last times I go against Saints as a road dog this year, bc after a tough game at Balt - I do think they can take steps forward this year.
