Thursday Action

Philadelphia Phillies -115
Better pitcher on the mound for the Phillies with Sanchez
Sanchez has pitched great lately averaging 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings in his last 5 starts
Phillies bullpen more rested than the Braves
Phillies have better batting average, SLG and OPS in the playoffs than the Braves

Steelers -3.5. This series is usually pretty ugly but I feel a lot better about the Steelers offense after their performance vs the bengals last week. The Browns played well against Carolina but I have a hard time believing they can do it two weeks in a row with Watson who has not shown me enough to trust that.

Jaylen Warren o 75.5 rushing yds… -110..now that Rico Dowdle has been ruled out Warren is the man…Last week vs Bengals had 127 yds rushing..thinking same tonight for him vs Browns rush defense ranked 23rd…looking Warren to hit the mark

Phillies -107

I expect Nola to start on regular rest tonite he is 17-12 lifetime vs ATL and until he was used on short rest which didn’t go well he has been pitching his best ball of the yr the momentum has switched to the Phillies now as the power boys took over yesterday now if Nola doesn’t have it early u will probably see Wheeler since they used Painter yesterday as for ATL I am seeing Grant Holmes who has pitched fairly well this yr for ATL and he is 2-1 vs Phil in his career but I imagine he will be on a short lease here but Phil has the clear pitching edge and if the power guys continue it should be a Phillies win so I am taking the Phillies

Browns ML (+124 DK)

Both clubs sit 2-1 atop the AFC North and Cleveland already took Pittsburgh 13-6 at home last December. Number opened Steelers -3 / 40.5 and has slid to -2.5 / 38.5 toward the home dog, and Pittsburgh’s offense is still bottom-10 in EPA and success rate even after the Bengals outburst — short-week road spot with Dowdle already out.

Browns vs steelers
The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7. Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week.
Take Cleveland plus 2.5. Sprinkle alittle on win

Pitt -2.5...me thinks the Clev love fest ends tonight, road team in this spot hits 57.45% of the time and I'm not buying DW hype train...this team is not great and the ol guy Rogers gets it done...GLA!

MLB:

Philadelphia Phillies -106

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies.
Phils are 21-17 since 2021 in post season.
Grant Holmes or Ray Kerr for the Braves.
Braves haven’t won series in post season since 2021.
Pitchers making 1st start in elimination games don’t do well against veteran teams.
Ray Kerr has made just 19 big league appearances since the start of 2024.
I will take the experienced pitchers for this game.

Steelers/Browns UNDER 38

Offensively, both teams are pretty bad statistically. In points scored, the Browns are ranked 24th at 18 per game. Steelers are 26th at 17.7 per game. The Browns in other categories are 28th in total yards, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in rushing yards. On the other hand I don't see how Deshaun Watson has a nice 5 TD to 1 INT ratio lol. But I think the run game with Cleveland is bad with Judkins only averaging 2.95 yards per carry. I think they'll have a hard time keeping the chains moving.

CLE Browns +2.5 (+100)

I read a comical stat this morning, friends. Ready? The Pittsburgh Steelers are just 2-10 on Thursday nights when playing on the road over the last 20 years. I’ll never forget the epic 2024 game in Cleveland that saw the Browns beat their Thursday night visitors in the snow (the Over cashed in that game, by the way…) But I digress. The Browns have actually won their last 4 straight meetings in Cleveland with the Steelers. For all their faults, they’ve also managed to bag upset wins over both the Carolina Panthers & Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past 2 weeks.

NCAAF

105 North Texas -1.5

North Texas is 3-1 ATS
North Texas is 1-0 as a Favorite
North Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

1st q under 7

PItt and Cleve offenses leave a lot to be desired but this is a big division game whoxh both need badly as Cincy and Balt are the cream of the crop in the Div.

Look for conservative game plans to start and Under 7

Phillies under 7.5-120.....Elimination game with all hands on deck..Nola starts and then probably Wheeler and a rested pen..The Braves will do the same maybe even using Sale for an inning..This all looks like an under to me

Browns ML

Home game coming off a momentum win, where Cleveland seems poised to get things rolling against a division rival. Dare I say, Deshaun Watson looks good in the pocket and on the ground.... I like Cleveland here at home.

Phillies ml it’s the Phillies time now or never with the better pitcher on the mound the Phillies will end this one the winner take Philly

I’m going with Cleveland tonight as they are 11-1 on Thursday nights and have won against Pitt the last 4 in Cleveland

o7.5 Atlanta / Philadelphia

Even though it's an elimination game which will probably be played tight and almost all pitchers will be available tonight I like the over here. Nola has struggled in his last 2 outings and if Atlanta can get a couple early on him that could set the tone. In his last 2 starts he's only gone 7 innings giving up 8 hits and 7 earned runs. On the Atlanta side they are going with a bullpen pitcher to start the game. Kerr has pitched well for Atlanta but he will only go a couple innings. I see both teams being able to put up some runs tonight and get us to the over

Browns ml +125

Cleveland is 11-1 on Thursday nights at home, they have won the last 9 and are also 4-0 against Pittsburgh at home on Thursday nights. Good luck