Spain > Football > LaLiga > Valencia - Ath Bilbao
Pick: Valencia +0.5 (-150)

I expect reaction from Valencia under Javier Aguirre. His first match against Racing was far from convincing and the draw was probably a fair result. Racing were the better side for long periods and Valencia could easily have lost, but at the same time Hugo Duro had a huge chance in the final minutes to win the game. It was not a good performance, but I would not draw too many conclusions from Aguirre’s first match.

I simply do not believe this Valencia squad is as poor as their league position and numbers suggest. There is more quality here then we have seen so far and I expect them to improve with Aguirre. He is an extremely experienced coach in Spanish football and has built his career around making his teams competitive, organised and difficult to beat.

This also looks like a good match for Valencia to try to play a controlled match. Athletic have gone around a month without playing an official game after their recent postponements and it is difficult to know exactly what rhythm they will have. They are also missing important offensive players, particularly Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams. Nico is their most dangerous and attacking player.

With Athletic lacking rhythm and some of their most talented offensive players missings and Valencia playing at Mestalla with the motivation that normally comes with a new coach, I see a much more competitive home side than their current league position suggest.

Kentucky +225

Lets take a shot here. Both teams are off big wins but Oklahoma just can't produce points on offense. is 2-0 on the road. Don't give into the Oklahoma hype this should be close....

BYU +10.5

This is ND first real test a Girl Scout troop could beat the teams they have played so far but now they have to go on the road to play a top 10 team of which ND has never beaten a top 10 on the road BYU has a pretty good defense and a gutsy QB who never gives up it will be crazy in that stadium tomorrow nite I look for a low scoring game unless there are some turnovers but both of these team usually take care of the ball I think BYU keeps it close and just might pull the UPSET in the end I am taking the pts and BYU

Navy +6.5, UTSA’s run defence ranks 121st in yards per game in the country I think 6.5 is too many against a navy team running the ball 90% of the time

Texas Longhorns -11
Texas QB Manning should have a big day as the Florida defense is allowing 269 yards ppg and a 65% completion percentage
Texas ranked 12th in the nation in total defense allowing on 264 yards per game
Florida’s defense ranks last in 3rd down success allowed and 131st for passing yards allowed per game
Texas allowing an average of 16 points per game this season while Florida giving up 29 points on average
Florida running back Jadan Baugh has only rushed for 72 yards combined in the last two games
Florida QB Aaron Philo is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury
Texas losing to Florida last season may have been the reason they did not reach the playoffs so revenge is also a factor for motivation

Georgia -10.5 + Oregon State -11.5 +100

Don't get me wrong, I like Auburn and am a huge fan of Brown. But this Georgia team is different. As a USF alum I watched a lot of Brown last season & he's likely to struggle against this Georgia defense. GA is 5-1 ATS only missing after beating vandy by 24 as 25 point favorites, but they were 1st & goal taking a knee as time expired so I'm not holding that one against them.

Oregon State continues to roll. 6-0 ATS and they just have to lay a short number against a terrible WSU team at home? Gonna keep riding until they give me a reason not to, similarly to Utah.

Cinn over 64.5 both teams can score at ease one stop will change the game cinn will get the stop take cinn

Oklahoma -6.5. I think OU will continue to build off that momentum from the huge win vs Texas last week. Kentucky is also riding hot, but I think with two fluky wins that could have went either way in OT they are a little more fraudulent than people think.

We love BYU tonite over Norte Dame because the stats dont lie.Irish have not defeated a ranked team on the road in 14 years.2ND BYU is 28 -2 AT HOME with a unbelievable record of 15 -2 as a home doggy .

Wisconsin +2.5…-105…UCLA coming off big win vs Oregon now faces Wisconsin coming off bye week..they now face the Badgers without their QB…Lamaleava was hurt in the Oregon game and is out for the year..letdown from last weeks win and first game with new QB taking Badgers with the points

Tennessee +7.5

Knoxville has been dying to host a game of relevance in mid-October and Bama isn't the same Bama team that steamrolls through its SEC schedule. I like the Vols getting the hook here at home.

Over 63 West Virginia One of the higher scoring teams in the country and 6 - 0 to the over this year.

LSU -18.
If Kamario isn’t playing for MSU, LSU will score 50.
Bakers D will throw a shutout as the backup isn’t an SEC player
Tigers will run it against a suspect DL, State 42nd against the run
Leavitt will have a good performance against a terrible pass D, 123 in country.
Tigers by 30

If the Gators are unable to get Jadan Baugh going this week, it's hard to see them scoring against an elite Texas front seven. The Texas passing game should break out against an extremely poor Florida secondary (119th in EPA per pass allowed).

texas -11.5

Arizona State at Texas Tech | Arizona State +15.5 -110

Kenny Dillingham is 8-0 against the spread in road or neutral-site games after two straight games where they forced no more than 1 turnover

Tampa Bay ML

I love the pitching matchup here. Rasmussen for TB has pitched great all year with an era in the mid 2's and a whip well under 1. In the playoffs he's continued great pitching going 14 innings giving up just 9 hits and 2 earned runs in 2 starts. Griffen hasn't pitched bad but not great either. He had an era a little over 4 in the regular season and in the playoffs has only pitched 6+ innings giving up 3 earned runs and 7 hits in his 2 appearances. Look for an easy Tampa win to even up the series

Indiana +3
This should be a close game. Indiana is playing at home and J. Hoover QB for Indiana has 1, 364 passing yards and T. Richard has 597 rushing yards and 5 TD.

TB/CLE (u23.5RHE) (-137) last night game postponed which means both staffs have all their bullpen available. Not as much weather impact (wind) as last night but still expect a low scoring game. Total sits at 6.5 so getting value on 23.5 RHE (6.5x3+1=20.5)

Cleveland under 7 -117, some how they did not cancel my bet after the game was postponed 🤷‍♂️

These teams played 9 times this year and other than the 1st game of ALCS and a game in July, the other 7 games went under the total. Good luck

Notre Dame/BYU UNDER 47

Both these teams have dominant defenses. ND are ranked 1st in total yards allowed. Bachmeier for BYU likes to run as a QB and I think ND can contain him. BYU is 7th nationally in yards allowed too and I think they’ll play a bend not break defense today.

MLB:

Tampa/Cleve Under 6.5

Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 League Championship road games.
Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League East.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 vs. American League Central.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.

Nebraska +6.5

Blackshirt run defense has been one of the best in this early season. Allowed 65 yds to a good running Indiana team. Oregon averages a little over 100 yds rushing per game (if you take out Portland State the beat 84-0 and rushed for 300yds). Oregon is starting a walk-on at QB over Raiola. Cornhusker fans travel and will have a great crowd there. Nebraska gets the cover. Sprinkle the +210 Moneyline as well

GBR!

GA State over 57

JMU Offense is a juggernaut but Ga state should be able to keep pace behind solid QB. THis one is a shoot out .
BOth defenses cant defend the pass very well and its shows today
42-28 JMU

Ohio St. ML -145 and -2.5

Ohio St. is 9-1 straight up the last 10 games against Indiana. This year Ohio St is 4-2 ATS and Indiana is 1-5 ATS. Score Ohio St. 34 Indiana 24

Devil's +102

The Devils enter on a high note coming off a commanding 7–1 victory over the New York Rangers on October 15. Their top lines have displayed strong offensive chemistry.

Ohio State- -2.5 Feel passing attack will be able to take.advantage of suspect. Indy pass defense
Kentucky + 6.5. Lack of offense will come back to haunt Sooners. Wildcats outright.

Mizzou - Ole Miss overs 58

These two teams will score early and often and leave it all on the field. Missouri has a bye week coming up and Miss has a date with Texas but cannot take Tigers lightly knowing what's at risk.

BYU ND under 46.5. Two elite defenses and running offenses. Like each team to have long drives that end in a punt or FG

Oklahoma -6.5. Kentucky's luck runs out today. Their defense is much weaker away from Lexington. Mateer will get back into the heisman race after this game.

11-3 on the year plus 700

Lotta noon games!

Florida plus 12.5 over Texas. Both teams not playing well but Florida seems to be on a free fall. Everyone still tjinks Manning is the man but he continues to struggle. Look for Florida, with a huge sense of urgency, to put pressure on hum. Line went from 9.5 to 12.5 so everyone is betting Texas! Take the points!

there's a lot more to why I like these horses than the write-up .. just a little taste of it



always check numbers.. tendency to be careless

Keeneland
R1 #7 L Rankin (6-1)

this looks like a reasonable drop .. exits fast so cal race in august which was off a long layoff and should be much tighter today


Keeneland
R2 #5 Puzzled (15-1)

I am puzzled with the morning line .. extreme outside last out post last out and not a bad effort relative to this field.. one of the better Midwest trainer's calling the shots

Wisconsin/UCLA Under 42.5 (-105) DraftKings

UCLA is down to Ty Dieffenbach at QB with Nico out for the year. It's his first FBS start and he went 9 TD and 9 INT at Cal Poly last year. Now he gets a Wisconsin pass D that ranks 9th in the country and has only allowed 3 passing TDs all season. Expect the Bruins to lean on the run game and shorten it. Both offenses play slow, and UCLA's last game was a 17-15 rock fight at Oregon.

Grind it out at the Rose Bowl, under for me.

Keeneland
R4 #5 delightful diva (6-1)

big pedigree and showed a lot of promise in her 1st 2 starts without it being too obvious


Keeneland
R6 #4 goshawk
1st time starter and they paid a good amount relative to the pedigree

R6 (also) #10 accelerator (12-1)
another 1st timer but this one is a flat out great pedigree and also has sharp works .. works are always a secondary thing for me and horses with mediocre works are fine if I like other things


be at least 1 more of the last 4 races .. possibly some meadowlands harness later also

NCAAF

162 USTA -6.5

USTA is 4-1 ATS this year
USTA is 2-1 as a Favorite this year
USTA is 2-0 at Home this year
USTA is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Navy is 1-4 ATS this year
Navy is 0-1 as a Dog this year
Navy is 0-3 on the Road this year

Keeneland
R7 #1 Solitude Dude (6-1)

tossing the last on bullring track .. hard to argue he's not competitive here off the rest


Keeneland R9 #6 Percy's Bar (6-1)

done a lot of damage @ 8.5f but way he runs think elongated sprints (7f) will suit him well also .. like him making the surface switch from his last race at Kentucky Downs

Ole Miss -5
probably against the grain on this one given Missouri’s recent success but walking into a ready squad in old Miss. Rebels 34-24

CFB BYU +10.5
This is one of many tough games this week.
The Irish are 7-2 against the cougars but
This cougar team is very solid . I think the
Irish win but cougars will cover

Meadowlands harness

can't explain my harness method .. has to do with types of running lines and exiting fast races (not always the latter)

R5 #5 Sargeant Walt (5-1) 555
R11 #4 Midnight Thunder (2-1)

Cleveland over 6.5 -115...Had this yesterday in the rain but sticking with it for the same reasons..I think Martinez gets hit early and then it's down to the bullpens but still think the total is too low and both teams score a few runs sending it over

Nrfi in the rays guardians game. Parker messick is like 90% to the nrfi this year. Rasmussen continues to be lights out. Will continue playingto this angle with Messick

Keeneland
R6 #2 Georgy Girl (20-1)
makes no sense this debuter is this ml .. possibly a good one to use underneath

Keeneland
R7 #8 Golden Sunshine (10-1)
3rd off layoff and working towards good effort .. has run well at this extended route distance in the past

Keeneland
R8 #7 Anthrax (20-1)
Caught behind a slow pace last out and hits a level he should be effective at .. sleeper at a price

Keeneland
R9 #7 Rivelli (6-1)
Even effort at Kentucky Downs in 2nd start last out and could see getting it done here .. excellent trainer jock and think depth-wise this field is below average


posted others further back

this was a mistake posting in yesterday's thread .. not intentional for more looks