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NFL YTD: 6-10, -34.63 units

It was my pick. I liked the Colts, I liked them a couple weeks ago - and then as the week went by.. I was like “they were in London last week” … “Pit had a long weekend.” But honestly, it wasn’t any of that. I was just wrong. Dad gave good advice.. Houston rolled (-7ish ATS) and Cincinnati won by double digits ish (-6.5 ATS).. but Indy - who I liked AND didn’t believe in Pittsburgh/Aaron Rodgers.. lost 34-22 by 12 as a +2.5 spread. It was my pick, I sucked this year. No dice. Teases sucked, straight up plays sucked, three teamers sucked. Good luck all, hope your years are/were better than mine and wish you all well!

Hey buddy, future Jeff, if you want to do this and actually want to do it with any sort of sustained success… Make sure to reduce vig as much as possible - In fact, take the advice from the NBA, the maximum bet should be -130 weight. Just… period. And, obviously, this doesn’t seem to be the answer for sustained success.. so if you’d like to do this, you have to earn your way back and figure out the answer. There is no shortcut, there is no all in, and every large wager – it almost seems weaker than the small ones. Until you handicap full-time, stop trying to beat the people that do. Take your time, choose your spots, and make sure to have some fun while you’re doing this thing. So I guess now… The only rule I have is keep bets to a maximum of -130 weight and never do future bets.

Last note - make all bets - the day of. If you absolutely must do a two or three teamer (in NFL only) and one is that Thursday… ok. But make all bets the day of - in that scenario, it would have to be that Thursday. Although honestly.. take that break brother. When you return, if so.. make those bets the day of.

I don’t think I’m playing them myself, but starting yesterday if I switched to aiming for a maximum of -130 vig per play (that stems back to when I had the Knicks on the ML and they were -2 ish and won by 1 in the most epic comeback in NBA history on 6/10). Although I’d wonder if perhaps that’s an exception I should just ignore and once again try to reduce vig everywhere humanly possible…

Last night and the Monday night game, I would’ve had Bills +3.5 against the Rams, I even considered the Moneyline, didn’t really consider teasing it – but I certainly would’ve had not been already semi tapped out. A normal week, not playing from way behind, I think I would’ve made that good play. Also, I can’t believe I missed the Bills bandwagon this year, I watch every game – at least sort of link your success to the home teams, success, right?

Then, I would bet Seattle -2.5 against the Broncos on Thursday night. I would do so straight up and I think it’s -125. Next, I would tease the Bills to ML vs Raiders and Patriots down to -1.5, they’re -7 vs the Jets. That parlay would be -122. I would also look long and hard at Baltimore -4.5 at Cleveland, but I’m not even sure how I’d bet it if I played them.