Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central UA 10K Challenge NFL/NBA

UA (Unfair Advantage) 10K Challenge NFL/NBA

I have a few threads on this forum, including my most recent “The Unfair Advantage NFL/NBA” which had some nice runs, some flops, & too much rambling. This NFL season was a big flop on that thread. I said when I came back, I needed a fresh start. If you ever find yourself chasing, pause. I found myself chasing. Execution is always key. I’ve been on Freak’s Forum (thank you for all you do, Freak) for 18 years - I’ve posted 1,799 plays with a record of 917-862-20, but definitely down overall units (which is all that actually matters) - especially since I’ve laid more than -110 on many plays through the years. I’m resetting - and with a newly found dad life, perhaps I’ll have more wisdom. Maybe it’s just delirium with less sleep.

Anyway, I’m starting with a $10K “fictional” bankroll on this thread and I want to see what I can do heading into 2027 and beyond. The analyses will be far shorter and, with parlays, if I go with a +6.5 instead of a +3 or +7, it’s because I perceived that to be the best value at the time - I won’t ramble on the various options I considered. Lastly, only reminder on this thread, you use an old school book and “tease,” be careful bc one leg pushing could result in a loss. I will only be placing these as parlays myself (even if I ever refer to it as a tease or teasing or tease-ish) - so if one leg loses, it reverts to a play with one less leg and adjusted juice.

My 1800th play on Freak’s Forum:

Bankroll 10,000 // Risk 2000 to win 1432:
KC Chiefs +6.5 & NE Patriots -1.5 (-141)

After the Chiefs got clobbered in primetime by the Seahawks, you have to know that they will come with an added fire this week. Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes are still probably the number one coach/quarterback duo that I would want with a game on the line. They have a ridiculously good record against the AFC West and I still think the Denver Broncos are very overrated. Sean Payton getting this team to the current record of 5-2 with Bo Nix and that schedule is extremely impressive to me. I just need Chiefs to keep it close in Mile High.

Second, I think everyone is overvaluing the Dolphins after beating the Jets and after a close game or two against Minny & Cin (not as close as score indicated imo). They’re still paying more ppl not to play for them than to play for them. Patriots have found their footing and have a decent squad this year. Wildcard competitor type. They have to win games like these. Also, the Dolphins beat the Jets twice last year and proceeded to lose their next game both times.

10K Challenge Record & Bankroll: 1-0* // 11,432
Last play(s) results: 1-0. Chiefs were a -1.5 chalk lost by 4 after Denver’s comeback & magic to barely hang on.. Pats minus 7 won by 5. Both sides needed the help and went 0-2 ATS. Ironically, thank you UA tease-ish (my lines manipulated parlay), after I couldn’t hit water from a boat for a while there this season with this strategy. Btw.. this has been a wild season. Esp betting big chalks straight up (or close to it like me).

Wild FAVES stats through week 8…
Week 1 largest spread -8.5 lost SU. Week 2 -13.5 covered, but 2nd & 3rd largest spreads (both -8.5) lost outright. Week 3: -10 covered, but 2nd largest spread -8.5 lost outright. Week 4: -11.5 & -10 both won SU but did not cover, 3rd largest spread -7 lost outright. Week 5: largest spread -9.5 lost outright. Week 6: largest spread -13.5 lost outright. Week 7: largest spread -10 lost outright. Week 8: largest spread -13.5 went to overtime and barely won, didn’t cover. 2nd largest covered. 3rd largest lost outright. Meaning.. through 8 weeks, if you parlayed the three largest chalks ML, you’d be 0-8. The largest spread of the week are 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS.

*both games for this play were on 11/1/26, the date of the original post (well before games started obvs lol).
*to reiterate a final time, this challenge was a pause & hard reset for me after a terrible start to the ‘26 NFL season (6-12, minus many units). I’m still accountable for the bad picks on the other thread I used since 2023. I found myself “chasing,” which is never a recipe for success, but still hold myself accountable.

NFL (11/2/26 & 11/5/26)

10K Challenge Record & Bankroll: 1-0* // 11,432

Risk 1700 to win 1050:
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 & Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-160)

Seattle has played a couple primetime games this season, which can be exhausting - but they’re not fully being respected with this line. Week 1, Hawks would’ve been maybe -6? Now we have them plus a little cushion. Da Bears and Ben Johnson look good this year, but to only be a FG dog in the champs’ house? Also looking at Seattle’s losses, they have all come close last year and this.

Jacksonville is a good football team and got to chill in the second half vs the Colts. Against a backup QB is tough to get up for, but Cohen has had this disrespected team focused. I really like the tease here too in case they control the game and win by 7. The Ravens season hit a tough spot when Lamar got injured. Devastating. Jags could be -10 if they were wearing red in KC and Baltimore was also wearing another jersey.

10K Challenge Record & Bankroll: 1-1 // 9,732
Results: Seahawks lost outright (as -3 chalks) by double digits, I liked Sea ATS also but was wrong on this one. Bears were way better (especially in the trenches) and this was a loser all over, very impressed. Seahawks aren’t that good and I lost on them at least twice this year Jeffery Simmons made himself known in his debut, look for the Hawks to add Jonathan Taylor from the Colts.

11/3 NBA

Bankroll 9,732 // Risk 1130 to win 1000
Detroit Pistons -1.5 (-113)

Love the Pistons in this spot here. Line is flirting up to 2.5 also. ML was -129 btw, I know my “go ML -130 or less” rule but that’s bad value today at my casino. 76ers travel to Cleveland next game and you know they’ll be up for it.. Pistons are a great home team and you know they’ll be pumped to welcome LeBron’s new superteam to the palace (city where palace formerly was lol). 76ers look good, but I like the Pistons in this spot.

11/3 NBA

Bankroll 9,732 // Risk 900 to win 855
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (-106)

Speaking of the Cavs, we have the Pistons as the main play of the day – but I also like the Cavaliers to get revenge against the thunder here in Oklahoma City. Yes, they have LeBron’s visit looming, but that’s probably more important to LeBron in the fans than the current Cavs roster. SGA needed quite the effort to beat Cleveland in Ohio, with all the injuries to the thunder. It’s hard to see them replicating it again.

11/5 & 11/8 NFL

Bankroll 9,732 // Risk 3000 to win 2097
Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline, San Francisco 49ers Moneyline, & Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-148)

If my Seahawks/Jaguars play had won, I planned on hammering a 49ers moneyline, Chiefs moneyline, & Bills plus maybe 4.5. The Seahawks lost on Monday night as I was on the very square Seattle home team against an up and coming Bears. I still like the Bills Monday Night but I’m seeing them -3.5 and can reevaluate that later on.

I watched the Bills/Ravens game and it will tell me that I need to completely abandon parlays if two of my huge parlays this year are taken down by an undrafted rookie quarterback on Thursday night football (Cowboys earlier vs the Bucs). The Jaguars are a good team and don’t get many opportunities in primetime, I expect them to be focused. San Francisco off a bye and their first loss of the season is my favorite leg of this parlay. Lastly, this is practically the Chiefs season on the line and they’re at home. I was on the fence until I saw that Garrett Wilson is questionable (and it looks like they may trade him) and my old man said KC should be ok.

Also fyi I’m aware that this ironically is the three largest lines (as of right now). This would be the first time all season - wow - that the three biggest chalks would win straight up. I still like it.

Bankroll 7702 // Pending:
- Risk 3000 to win 2097: Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline, San Francisco 49ers Moneyline, & Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-148)

Record & Last plays results: 1-3 (0-2 NBA). I’ve bet on LeBron a lot more than against him through the years, always been a big fan. Maybe my first bet of the year shouldn’t have been against him, but I liked the Pistons to maintain their dominance at home here - and a spot 76ers could let down a little. When Brown made the 38 foot 3 at the end of the first I was worried. They only made it interesting in the 4th after spending the whole game down 10-15, lost by 6. Second, I liked the Cavs to give a good punch after losing the first at home of the home and home, bc I didn’t think SGA could replicate. He did and OKC were still up 25-9 the first time I checked the score & down 14 after 3. Cavs made run in the 4th but lost by 8 and it was all Thunder even with all their injuries. A play I didn’t make: I liked the Knicks -12.5 against a crappy Bulls team after all the noise (I saw an article about how dysfunctional they were even though we’re only 7 games in). A perfect spot to bet them reg season, but I didn’t and of course they won by 30. Tough start to the NBA season, but par with the course so far for my 2026 sports betting. Need better luck starting Thursday with Jacksonville in the NFL and Sunday for San Fran & Kansas City.

11/6 NFL

Risk 1420 to win 38,517
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship (+2713)

Risk 1400 to win 18,287
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+1306)

Risk 630 to win 11,182
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & Chicago Bears to win the NFC Championship (+1776)

Risk 250 to win 9,593
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC Championship & Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship (+3838)

Risk 200 to win 8,800
Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC Championship & Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship (+4400)

Risk 100 to win 5525
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship (+5525)

Entering this season, I said to avoid futures at all costs. The same set of rules clobbered me, so at this point - I’d really kick myself if the Bills made the Super Bowl and I thought this all through and still didn’t let it rip. I think the Bills are making the Super Bowl this year and idk how many more windows they’ll have where I feel this strong about it. I liked em last year and tbh they should’ve made it. I’m using most of this remaining 10K bankroll for some futures action. Bills and Rams probably would’ve been my Super Bowl matchup in the preseason, I still feel it can certainly happen. In my opinion, this is kind of like buying the Rams on a dip and I’ve always liked the Bills this year, but haven’t met them as much as I should’ve. I have a few other small insurance policies, but my three favorites for the NFC right now are Rams number one, 49ers number two, and after that impressive win by the Bears – they climbed number three for me.

Some this season data (mostly on the other thread): I’m currently 4-0 with the Chiefs as a parlay leg (not the whole wager, one play is currently pending, not including this weekend’s game - which hopefully only improves this record), in those games, they are 2-2 ATS. I was nervous to go to the Patrick Mahomes well one more time, but dance with the ones that brought you, right? The 49ers have a parlay leg record for me of 2-0 (0-2 ATS), but they have a third leg pending this Sunday along with the Chiefs. The Rams have a parlay record of 2-1 (1-2 ATS) with the one loss that -800 ML add on when they got beat by the Cardinals two weeks ago and I shouldn’t have just tagged it onto the existing play to juice it up. With the Jaguars, I’m 3-0 on parlay legs (3-0 ATS). Lions 1-0 (0-1 ATS). Betting against the Broncos, the legs are 3-0 (Chiefs 2x & Rams), but those plays would be 1-2 ATS and I liked all three ATS and considered betting them that way (went w the parlay version though in execution). Or find a team that I’m happy to be betting against.. I’m 4-0 in parlay legs against Miami (those teams were 2-2 ATS). I’m 1-2 in legs against Arizona (those teams were 0-3 ATS and I’m walking into that rake again hoping on a different outcome, betting against them on the Rams here) and the 1 win was super close to blowing it (49ers week 3). I’m 3-0 in legs against the Titans (those sides were 2-1 ATS).

So - if I go with the parlay/tease-ish strategy, seems pretty obvious long term I need to pick some good teams I like and ride the heck out of them. To lay heavy weight, they better be a dang Super Bowl contender. Forget looking at the spreads themselves first, I should look at the teams that have been getting it done for me. The inconsistent ones seemed to kill me this year, like the Ravens (1-1, 0-2 ATS), the Cowboys (0-1 leg), Bucs (0-1), the Chargers (0-1), Eagles (0-1), the Bucs. Especially the SB Champ Seahawks, who I went 0-2 on legs (0-2 ATS) with. Another note is that I drank the kool aid of average teams that ended up being bad - the Colts, for example, I was 1-1 on legs (1-1 ATS). I also seemed to have been late to recognize a good team on the rise.. I was 0-2 in legs against the Bears.

Which is great data for the parlays - need to avoid those middling teams as much as possible and only go with premier teams. They win - or if they lose, it’s tight.

11/8 & 11/15 NFL

Bankroll 9799* // Risk 3000 to win 1992:
Buffalo Bills +4.5 (11/8) & LA Rams Moneyline (11/15) (-152)

Now using my research’s logic, I’m going with the teams that I think are excellent this and next week. Bills & Rams to start. Jags, Chiefs, and 49ers helped me out to give me this shot in week 9.

I mentioned that I like the Bills this week against Minnesota, now I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I don’t believe the Vikings are as good as their record indicates and could have a return to the mean coming. I was thinking about making this my first ATS play of the challenge, but my confidence is a little shaky and pops said a cushion may be nice on this one, so I partnered it with the Rams next week. Another option to pair next week was the Jags, but Titans are off a bye and played better last couple weeks, but I’m probably going to find a way to pair them with the Bills next week in New York against the Jets. The three biggest chalks won outright in week 9 and I think it’ll happen again in week 10, even though it didn’t happen once weeks 1-8. Jags will have a long week to prepare though after they beat Baltimore and Trevor and the Jags blew it in 2023 week 17 in Tennessee. Then he didn’t play in Nashville in 2024, so he’ll be acutely aware of needing to be focused in that stadium.

As for these plays… those Buffalo Bills look awesome. And when they lose, it’s mostly been very close for a couple years now - so the cushion helps on the parlay. I probably should’ve been teasing them every week since week 1, I was probably just gun-shy from my exposure on them last year and many plays betting them to make the Super Bowl. I finally find my way to betting them again this week.. I only bet them once this season (as a tease leg) when they were -5.5 and won by 3 against the Raiders, covering my bet. They’re currently 5-2 ATS, they’d be 6-1 as a 6 point tease pair. I haven’t seemed to have a good read on my hometown team historically, but hopefully this week bucks that trend and they take care of business.

The Rams just absolutely crushed survivor pools everywhere two weeks ago when they lost to the Cardinals.. I just can’t possibly believe they get swept by Arizona and the Gardner Minshew magic. They’re gaining momentum and I still see quite a few paths where they’re the NFC Super Bowl representatives. Also, the Cardinals are the dang team that started my season off tough when they beat the (now defunct, but not at the time) Chargers as +9.5 dogs.

///////

Adding some more SB Futures Combo Plays:
*This will bring all Super Bowl futures plays to 5000 at risk; I’m giving it a run. A couple of these already have a wager attached, I’m just adding a couple bucks & will consolidate in a future post. Kinda playing this like an old school NCAAM Calcutta (where you bid on teams pre tournament and get lots of exposure) lol. Finding some more San Fran & Cinci exposure here for sure. Good squads.

Risk 200 to win 4,480:
Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+2240)

Risk 125 to win 2,012:
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+1610)

Risk 125 to win 2,843:
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC Championship & Chicago Bears to win the NFC Championship (+2275)

Risk 275 to win 6,407:
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+2330)

Risk 75 to win 3,721:
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship (+4963)

Risk 50 to win 2,987:
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & Detroit Lions to win the NFC Championship (+5975)

Risk 50 to win 1,637:
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & Chicago Bears to win the NFC Championship (+3275)

Risk 50 to win 3,137:
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & Green Bay Packers to win the NFC Championship (+6275)

Risk 50 to win 5,387:
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC Championship (+10775)

///////

Challenge Record: 2-3 (2-1 NFL & 0-2 NBA)). Last play’s result: The Jax, KC, SF moneylines parlay won. This was the first time this year the three largest chalks of the week all one straight up, an incredibly crazy stat. Jags & Chiefs by 23 each & 49ers by 21. Papa (the new Grandpa, my dad) gets props for encouraging me to add KC - I was nervous to, but he absolutely helped me a bit this season. He said “sometimes it works.” Gotta be humble, it’s hard to win any sports bets. PS, the fourth team I was considering for the week, the Lions -6.5 at Miami also won (by 10). Now I get to add the Bills as a separate play and take some winnings home.

*The previous post’s play should have the dates of 11/9 for the Buffalo Bills +4.5 vs the Vikings and 11/16 for the LA Rams Moneyline vs the Cardinals.

My pending futures are below, 5000 total at risk, a bit more organized/easier to look at. 14 of them and my goal is to go 1-13 here, two of these plays can’t both win (will crush the challenge’s W/L record lol - but like I always say, it’s all about the units). They’re are all betting on the specific Super Bowl matchup (SB winner doesn’t matter, it’s bets on the winner of the conference championship games). All parlays are two legs needing both the winner of the AFC Championship game and NFC Championship game to win. Listed below is each bet as “AFCG Winner / NFCG Winner (Odds) Risk -> To Win (profit).”

Bills/Rams (+2713) 1420 -> 38,517
Bills/49ers (+1306) 1400 -> 18,287
Bills/Bears (+1776) 630 -> 11,182
Jaguars/Rams (+3838) 250 -> 9,593
Chiefs/Rams (+4400) 200 -> 8,800
Bengals/Rams (+5525) 175 -> 9,246
Chiefs/49ers (+2240) 200 -> 4,480
Jaguars/49ers (+1610) 125 -> 2,012
Jaguars/Bears (+2275) 125 -> 2,843
Bengals/49ers (+2330) 275 -> 6,407
Bengals/Lions (+5975) 50 -> 2,987
Bengals/Bears (+3275) 50 -> 1,637
Bills/Packers (+6275) 50 -> 3,137
Bills/Cowboys (+10775) 50 -> 5,387

*11/9 & 11/15, third times the charm on getting the dates right for this week’s play. Bills on MNF to win or keep it close and Rams to not lose twice to Arizona next week and Gardner Minshew when Myles Garrett is back and got three sacks today against Washington as they improved to 5-4. Also their last game before the bye week, a win and then resetting could give them great energy into their final stretch before the playoffs.

11/12 & 11/15 NFL

Bankroll 9799 //

Risk 1850 to win 903:
Buffalo Bills Moneyline & Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-210)

Risk 1750 to win 918:
Washington Commanders +9.5 & Houston Texans +4.5 (-195)

Pending play: Risk 3000 to win 1992:
Buffalo Bills +4.5 (11/8) & LA Rams Moneyline (11/15) (-152)

The three biggest chalks won outright in week 9 and I think it’ll happen again in week 10, even though it didn’t happen once weeks 1-8. Jags will have a long week to prepare though after they beat Baltimore and Trevor and the Jags blew it in 2023 week 17 in Tennessee. Then he didn’t play in Nashville in 2024, so he’ll be acutely aware of needing to be focused in that stadium. Jags are all in buying and Tennessee is selling hard at the trade deadline, this isn’t their year. Bills were the beneficiary from Titans sell of their safety. I like the Bills here and Josh has had rough go’s before in NY but they head to Miami next week, so not really a look ahead or let down type spot, in my opinion. Two excellent teams - Jaguars and Bills to win.

For the second play, I like Washington to win outright, but I certainly like them to keep it to single digits if they don’t. Giants haven’t beaten anyone amazing other than debatably Houston (but idk there) when JJ lit it up out of nowhere. That game where Giants beat Houston has this line out of whack a bit imo. Commanders should be able to keep it close in primetime. Then for the second leg, all of the Browns wins are by 4 or less. I don’t think DeShaun gets them a win against a desperate Houston team regardless (I’m 1-0 betting them as a parlay leg so far this year, they covered that game ATS also), but if they do I can definitely see a FG type game at the wire.

///////

Adding another 500 in ammo (5500 total in now, should be letting it ride after this - would likely only consider hedging once we reach Championship Games round) in SB Futures Combo Plays; adding more SF exposure. Debatable that I’m overexposed with a 10K bankroll challenge, but I guess I “fictionally” dipped into another pocket to include these futures plays (assuming you need to lay the ammo up front, which I always encourage in actual practice; bookies/betting money not in hand can get one in trouble). Regardless, I’m allowing it for the challenge. Anyway - with the Nacua injury and Rams still working through it, I want more exposure on a 49ers team (who my parlay legs are 3-0 with):

Risk 125 to win 2,425:
Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+1940)

Risk 125 to win 1,893:
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+1515)

Risk 125 to win 1,362:
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+1090)

Risk 125 to win 2,637:
Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship & San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Championship (+2110)

///////

My (updated with today’s additions) pending futures are below, 5500 total at risk. 14 total. All are two legs needing both the winner of the AFC Championship game & NFC Championship game to win. Listed is each bet as “AFCG Winner / NFCG Winner (Averaged out Odds) Risk -> To Win (profit).”

Bills/Rams (+2713) 1420 -> 38,517
Bills/49ers (+1288) 1525 -> 19,649
Bills/Bears (+1776) 630 -> 11,182
Jaguars/Rams (+3838) 250 -> 9,593
Chiefs/Rams (+4400) 200 -> 8,800
Bengals/Rams (+5525) 175 -> 9,246
Chiefs/49ers (+2124) 325 -> 6,905
Jaguars/49ers (+1562) 250 -> 3,905
Jaguars/Bears (+2275) 125 -> 2,843
Bengals/49ers (+2261) 400 -> 9,044
Bengals/Lions (+5975) 50 -> 2,987
Bengals/Bears (+3275) 50 -> 1,637
Bills/Packers (+6275) 50 -> 3,137
Bills/Cowboys (+10775) 50 -> 5,387