NBA Selection
Wednesday, November 1, 2006
7:05 PM PT/10:05 PM ET
Opinion Selection
LA Clippers +4½ over PHOENIX
The Clippers tip off their NBA campaign tonight on the road when they take on the Suns. The Clippers came out of nowhere last year to finally make some noise last season and reached the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They weren’t satisfied to just make the postseason, as they defeated the Nuggets in five games in the opening round of the playoffs, before getting eliminated by Phoenix in a thrilling seven-game series.
The team returns pretty much intact, starting with All-Star forward Elton Brand, who led the Clippers in scoring and rebounding last season. Veteran point guard Sam Cassell re-signed and is back for another go-round. The Clippers lost forward Vladimir Radmanovic, who jumped ship and inked a deal with the rival Lakers in the offseason, but he was replaced with Tim Thomas, who was a key post-season player last year for the Suns.
Phoenix, meanwhile, opened its season with a 114-106 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night, a PRO INFO SPORTS winning 2 STAR SELECTION. The Suns turned the ball over 21 times last night at Staples Center, and blew a 19-point lead to a Lakers team that took the court without several players, including Kobe Bryant.
As we mentioned in our analysis of that game, Phoenix is not going to simply pick up where they left off last season. They got the “kiss of death” from Sports Illustrated, as they were the magazine’s preseason pick to win the NBA championship this year. After all, they were great last year without Amare Stoudemire. Add him to the mix and they should be unbeatable. At least that was the thinking.
Exactly as predicted here, incorporating a potential MVP-candidate back into the flow of this team will not be a seamless process. It's not going to be all one-handed dunks, fancy passes and defensive stops for Stoudemire in his return from dual knee surgeries that essentially wiped out last season. He did make a flurry of impressive moves in the early going last night to help the Suns build their lead, but Stoudemire then experienced the kind of spotty moments more indicative of someone coming off major injuries as the Lakers rallied for the victory. He committed two fouls in a matter of seconds in the second quarter and was beaten by Vladimir Radmanovic and Smush Parker on consecutive plays as the Lakers whittled their deficit to single digits. Stoudemire then was a non-factor in the second half, when he played less than two minutes and the Lakers surged ahead. Suns Coach Mike D'Antoni was blunt in his assessment of the situation. "Amare's not ready yet. If you watched the game, he's not ready defensively. I'm not going to put him out there and lose the game." Even before the game, the Suns Steve Nash said about Stoudemire, “It’s a touchy subject”. Stoudemire himself seems to agree. "I'm in no-comment mode," Stoudemire said after the game. "I hope you can respect that. I've got nothing to say."
If Stoudemire was the only problem with Phoenix, they would be in fairly good shape as they played quite well without him last season; however, there’s more to this team’s troubles than that. They weren’t sharp in the preseason and were completely flat after putting up 41 points in the first quarter last night. This team is just not ready for 48 minutes of NBA basketball right now. "We have to get in shape and move the ball better. We didn't have the legs, for whatever reason. We're a little bit fat right now. We had a great year last year, but we're resting on our laurels a little bit," said D'Antoni. His “fat” comment have been directed to Borice Diaw who looked like he spent the entire off-season in an ice cream shoppe.
Now, this tired, out-of-shape team returns home to play without rest against a rested, talented team that is looking to avenge a playoff series defeat. This is not a recipe for Suns success. In recent seasons, Phoenix has gone 0-3 SU & ATS as a home favorite without rest off favorite SU loss. Even more incriminating, returning home after losing a road game with double-digit lead, the Suns are an unsightly 0-10 ATS over the past 10+ seasons when not favored by 16+ points. The last time they found themselves in this situation was last April. They were home against these same Clippers and lost 119-105 as 7’-point favorite.
Los Angeles won’t be lacking for confidence when they enter the building tonight, as they have taken four of the last seven matchups at Phoenix. Being the rested team will certainly work to their advantage as well here, according to a PRO INFO SPORTS NBA POWER SYSTEM which states: In Game 1, play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 11 points) vs. an opponent without rest off a road SU loss of 7+ points. These season-opening teams are at least 10-0 ATS. They could be even better than that, as we checked only back to the 1996 season, and they’ve been a perfect “10” since then. The Lakers got some revenge for their 7-game playoff series loss to the Suns last night, as we expect the Clippers to do the same tonight.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LA CLIPPERS 105 PHOENIX 104
