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NFL 9/20 & 9/21/26

TB Bucs -2.5 & Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-167) for 3 units
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 & LA Rams -1 (-143) for 2 units

Pending:
Detroit Lions ML (9/13) & Tampa Bay Bucs (9/20) -137 for 2 units

YTD: 1-2, -9.09 units

Reflection:
As I type this first part of reflection Monday morning after a rough Chargers defeat.. (heavy vig, multi leg strategies means when the L’s come, they usually find a way to reallllly sting)… I think to myself - can Patrick Mahomes step up & keep it close (or win) vs the Broncos and save my season from digging too deep too early? I continue typing after the game.. yes he can and did. Chiefs dominated and won 31-10. I obviously, this week, am bummed bc the five sides I liked went 4-1 straight up and I had them all ML or plus points. They also went 3-2 ATS had I bet that way, but bc of my strategy .. and a misstep being overexposed .. I got smoked. I’m steadfast, I have my rules in place - at least for this season - but I walked right into this rake in week 1, even knowing how funky week 1 can be.

Bucs/Ravens/Rams analysis:
For those of you keeping track at home, this brings both the Bucs side and the Ravens side to 5 units each, Rams a 2 unit play.

Rams going from - “wow look at Ravens/Rams week 2” as the tease of the week to some bad news with No Myles Garrett for a bit. That concerns me a little bit, but are we really taking them from heavy SB fave to losing to the Giants at home … in 72 hours without losing their QB? I’m not overcorrecting that far. I had said going into Sunday for week 2, they’ll either have pulled off a tough divisional win in primetime or they’ll have lost a tough one in Dallas. LA has extended time to prepare after Australia and week 1 was embarrassing. PS I had to go -1 to make the play -143, moneyline would’ve made it -152 and against my (now and forever moving forward extremely strict) rules.

For the Bucs, already covered it a little above but I’ll add that nothing changed after week 1. Deshaun will hopefully struggle again and then probably gets benched. Bucs lost a tough one but had 4 turnovers in week 1. They can move to first in their division with a win here lol.

Ravens looked really good in week 1 - this team is excellent. I know - going back to the well against the Saints on the road is a risky proposition, that team could take steps forward this year and next. But an argument can be made that they tapped the tank in week 1’s almost comeback - although wow, all those yards and 3 turnovers. I guess they were playing from behind, but they were for sure the “right” side at +7 in week 1 vs Det ATS and honestly, debatably, moneyline. I don’t think they do it again - but this bet is more about Lamar Jackson and his 25-5 career record against the NFC. Saints were also 0-4 against good non div teams on the road last year and Det last week was a dome if that means anything. This may be one of the last times I go against Saints as a road dog this year, bc after a tough game at Balt - I do think they can take steps forward this year.

PS Rams also have Aaron Donald’s return this game - so it’s hard to think they’ll look past this one at all. And ability wise - yes, I still think they should beat the Giants.

I like Ravens/Bucs as a tease-ish partner better though at this point fwiw (remember - always enter as a parlay so if one leg pushes it reverts back to a single leg play).

NFL 9/20 & 9/21/26

Dallas Cowboys +3 (9/20) & LA Rams -1 (9/21) (-150) for 2 units

Adding one more play here. Rams explanation above, I was looking for an opportunity to up that unit total, this brings the side to 4 units. Bucs & Ravens’ manipulated lines at 5 apiece this week.

And to explain the 2 units on Dallas … and why I’m ok crossing over zero on my parlay, even though you’re advised against it when teasing/manipulating lines - I was really scouring to find the pair; Seattle, close, but I didn’t want a backup on the road in case AZ is a surprise 8-9 team with some spice .. Eagles - so close - but man do they just not try some weeks it seems. And idk Titans are terrible, but I have to mix it up and not just bet against the Titans and Cardinals (it didn’t work last week).

So Dallas: Dak is 9-0 at home against Washington. While they also have a look ahead game going to Brazil vs Balt next week (ironically I have a lot of action hoping no teams are looking ahead to Brazil yet).. this is also their home opener and they were a trendy Super Bowl pick and GOTI just a week ago.. so… I’m not overcorrecting here. I like Washington, but Jayden needs to focus on his copyrights for now and Dak/Cowboys will be beyond desperate this week if there’s anything there with that squad. A FG cushion also helps.

NFL

Pending:
Dallas Cowboys +3 (9/20) & LA Rams -1 (9/21) (-150) for 2 units

YTD: 1-5, -19.7 units

An absolutely abysmal start to the year. As bad as it can possibly go. My current Individual parlay leg record: 5-3, moving lines 8 ish points. Terrible. I would’ve been 4-4 ATS in those eight games. But it’s disingenuous to say I would’ve bet them all straight ATS. I’ll need to do some soul searching here.

The overexposure on Chargers/Jags in week 1 hurt me. Week 1 is funky, never forget that and never forget chalk/chalk in week 1 is super square. I paid the price - changed the rules to make sure I don’t just beat myself. Loved the play.. but I didn’t need to go 0-2 -11.59 units on it. I was always betting it though should’ve been 0-1, -10 units (not much better lol) and honestly with it being chalk/chalk and week 1… shouldn’t have been a 5 unit play either bc that’s square as heck. And…. Then similar concept for week 2 and both teams (Bucs & Ravens) both lost outright after being up 8-10 in the 2nd half. Idk man, just all hurt. Bad picks, bad results.

Ravens could easily be looking ahead to Brazil and I bet against Saints last week and survived just barely. Went back to that fire and got burnt. Bucs. Who knows what happened there. Deshaun put up good numbers and earned his right to keep on playing. Kudos to the effort and I was wrong about the play he and Cle were capable of. Cowboys rolled by like 17 tho and unfortunately Jayden Daniels went down during the game.

NFL 9/21/26

LA Rams -2.5 (-250) for 3 units

Trying something new. Rules aren’t working rn. I wonder if there was a universe where I bet the Jags and not Chargers in week 1 and set a different snowball effect.. maybe… probably, but not many if it’s a superhero multiverse situation.

Now let’s try a single game wager (albeit a manipulated line still and very heavy vig) and try to place much closer to the games, maybe all within 72 hours of at least the first one if it’s a normal two leg parlay.

For today, so let’s see if I can get back on track at the same time as Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Love them here at home, with a long week after getting clobbered in Australia.

Last point on the Rams - sometimes, when I don’t overcomplicate it, I get the best results…

The Rams were 7-1 last year at home and the Giants were 1-8.

Yes, I hope Puka plays, but it doesn’t change my bet.

NFL YTD: 3-5, -14.7 units

Big thank you to Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, Davonte Adams, & the Rams for a dominant Rams win as a TD chalk technically bringing a 2-0 to my YTD (but remember units are all that actually matter). Hope Jaxson heals quickly, he was injured early. Fwiw, tracking for myself 6-3 in parlay legs (those sides 5-4 ats). Take one more shot with this type of tease-ish strategy here? Week 2-7 is supposedly the sweet spot according to my history… but could’ve fooled me in week 2.

I’m now encouraging myself to wait til within 72 hours of game time (or the first leg if a multiple leg parlay/tease-ish) to place a wager. I want to be better at pausing & giving myself some more time. I’m obviously eyeing Chiefs/49ers a bit.

NFL 9/27/26

KC Chiefs -2.5 & SF 49ers -2.5 (-210) for 5 units

The play:
Yes, I see the rake. Both of them -3 would be a (well within the previous rules) -182. I’m paying the extra -25 here bc.. well.. bc I’m pivoting my approach and last week skid my rules to the side and made them guidelines when I bet the Rams -2.5 and laid serious lumber. Reason I’m ok laying a little extra is bc honestly, if this one loses, I’ll be considering making big changes. I think I would have to pull the plug on my tease-ish chalk/chalk strategy of that -7 or more this season, and maybe beyond. This will be my third week in a row with a similarly structured big play like this.. three of the four teams lost outright. Not just “didn’t cover,” but the Chargers -9.5 lost outright at home to AZ in week 1 and, in week 2, Ravens -7.5 lost to the Saints and Bucs -8 lost to the Browns. Terrible across the board. But Bucs & Ravens were both up two scores in the second half… so I’m hoping third time’s the charm. I’m ready to get hurt again.

The only rule I’m trying to follow now (the rest are guidelines now) is making my play(s) within 72 hours of the game, or if there’s multiple legs, the first leg of the parlay (aka tease-ish). Maybe I’m losing bc I’m accurately calling them parlays again instead of the fun “tease-ish” term I use. I always feel compelled to remind ppl however they place the wager to make sure if manipulating a line to a whole number; make sure a push reverts the play to a single leg play.. hence the ish part to my “tease-ish.” Plus I usually am manipulating around a key number like 3 so may move one team’s line more than the other. But… do NOT tease something to -3 and if they win by 3, it makes the play a loss. This will be my final reminder this season, but that’s important to note. If I ever do -3 it’s bc I want that push if they win by a FG and can still win my whole wager (just less money).

Chiefs:
A lot of the same points as why I bet them week 1.. actually don’t apply here. I felt great about them keeping week 1 close at home. They rolled their opponents. I was able to avoid Chiefs ML week 2 - even though they won, it was way close for comfort. But now.. against a Dolphins team who is still paying more people not to play for them than to play for them… Dolphins won’t go 0-17 (I think..).. but they don’t get their first win against a 2-0 Chiefs team with still a bunch to prove this year without a *big* lookahead spot. They’re traveling to Vegas which I don’t love (that’s kinda exciting), but Patrick can play in the heat. AI says he’s 4-1 in the state of Florida. But the run game, the defense… yes this is a letdown spot - and if this was week 9, this would be a bad bet. It’s week 3 though. Everyone’s still primed early in the season. If they lose it’s not bc of overlooking opponents generally (imo).. it’s bc they’re bad (ie Chargers my goodness).

49ers:
They’re really good. I had them missing the playoffs before the season but dang.. idk why. When healthy, they’re good. And Brock may actually just be a good QB. I gotta get on board. I’m also inclined to think the Cards aren’t actually that good after getting stomped by the Seahawks and a backup QB.. but that the Chargers are really actually kinda bad. (Not that I’d bet the Bills necessarily bc this is the Chargers’ early season figurative Super Bowl .. season on the line).

NFL 9/27/26

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 & Seattle ML (-165) for 3.4 units

I thought a long time about this play - Bengals and Jags, in fact, were my first two choices earlier in the week but I intentionally waited this week, my later in the week plays have seemed better this year so far. I had written “Seahawks vs who? Why isn’t it 8.5 yet..” when the line was planted at -7 at Washington (and the Commanders starting a backup QB Mariota). And then the line ticked up to -7.5, -8, back to -7.5 (-115) but that tells me a very different story than a flat -7. Week 1 for example, the Lions stayed at a flat -7 and the Jags climbed to -8.5. Vegas saw it and adjusted accordingly.. I think Vegas thinks Seattle wins this one by 4-6. Seeing the -7.5 gives me confidence on the moneyline. Them beating an overrated Pats team by 3 was no good esp with 3 picks by Drake .. but no time with the backup. And just for the record.. I made this decision thinking there was one more week with Drew Lock. I prefer Darnold (obviously) so his return will just give an even bigger boost and an emotional lift as they continue their march towards history. The streak doesn’t end against Mariota. Coach McDonnell is 7-1-1 ATS when passing three time zones also; so the west to east thing is an issue.. but it’s accounted for here. I also haven’t bet the Hawks much.. saw them last week (even in my offseason studies) but didn’t pull the trigger. The Cards>Chargers plus Drew Lock threw me off.. so this is a chance for me to connect with Sam Darnold and this Seahawks team.. hopefully for a win.


Jags are one of my favorite legs of the week at home because they’re just so sneaky good at home. (Them at +4.5 with Sea ML is -139 fyi, but I gave myself more cushion for now). Kind of like how Seattle has immense value (last year at least) on the road and killed it ATS, Jags never seem to get clobbered at home. We need them to win or keep it under a TD here. I think Jags are the better team .. for sure… I thought the Pats were overrated last year and if I were objective and still betting come Super Bowl time (instead of licking my wounds on all my Bills to win the AFC future combos), I’d like to think I would’ve hammered the Hawks. I thought the Pats were fraudulent and man was that a path for the Bills or what? Broncos losing Bo sucked but I’m not sure they’re actually all that good either.

As for why no Bengals? Idk. I looked at the two team histories against each other and a lot of weird stuff. Plus “road divisional favorite” didn’t feel great to me. Even though I also think the Steelers are terrible. Hence confidence against the Pats too as their only win was against Pittsburgh. I also looked at the Bills .. bc of the Chargers being a shell of what I expected.. but I’m not going from this team is in “my Super Bowl bubble” and I’m considering a futures bet on them winning the Super Bowl ..to betting against them in a “must win” situation in only week 3. Plus Bills defense is bad. They should’ve lost to Texans and Lions came out so flat it’s hard to tell. Bills at home are good and offense is unbelievable though.

NFL 9/27 & 9/28/26

LA Rams +5.5 & Philadelphia +3 (-124) for 3 units

Rams/Eagles - Two top Teams w cushions vs.. a team that I think is overrated (Broncos, Rams’s opponent) and a backup QB (Case Keenum for the Bears against a tough Eagles team). A lot has been overblown about Rams lack of success on the road last season & this, but I’m not sure I’m buying it.. last year their losses were to the Eagles on a last sec blocked FG TD to lose by 7 (should’ve been 1 or a win by 2 if he just makes or misses).. then they lost by 3 in OT, 3, 1, 3. Also a backdoor cover - I mean if absolutely needed is on the table with +4.5. Exactly what Seahawks were able to do.. I don’t love that I’m rocking with two road teams, but I’m looking at finding value here. Eagles just seem to win.. and I’m giving them a cushion against a regression candidate Bears team… with a backup QB on top of it.

NFL

Pending: LA Rams +5.5 & Philadelphia +3 (-124) for 3 units

YTD: 4-6, -15.31 units

Analysis of first 2 plays this week:
An important reflection on my week’s plays and stuff to consider for moving forward. My big play won by the hair on my chinny chin chin with KC winning by 14 & SF… my god SF. Having them -2.5 with them up 2 at the end was very, very tough.. especially with their kicker missing two XP’s. Then the Purdy TD run was called back.. there was very much many possibilities of them winning this game by 2. When 49ers were up 36-27 and the Brissett ran off the field, I was able to finally breathe. They went for the FG first and made it to cut the score to the final 36-30 (SF did not cover their -7.5 to -8.5 spread ATS). Thank you Brock, Kyle, George, and the whole 49ers team.

And of course the Jags rolled - as I expected (just like when I bet them week 1 with another bad pair) - but I paired it this week with the Seahawks who outgained the Commanders 437 to 258 yards but lost the turnover game 0 to 3 with one of them for a TD. This brings my parlay legs to 9-4 and those teams would be 6-7 ATS. I did have Bengals/Jags as my picks of the week, but after digging in - I ended up going with the Seahawks. Bengals ended up losing by 3 at -3.5, but Pit drove late and could’ve easily scored a TD instead of a FG at the end. I did have Bengals as the second leg with Jags but got peer pressured (I know better) into the Seahawks. My pops really liked them this week and then one of my favorite analysts had a lock on them and I drank the Kool Aid. I messed up though bc I had a three teamer for -165 with Bengals +6.5, Jags +7.5, and Seahawks +3 (they lost by 2). This is the first time in a while I was considering two different options that were very close and it middled them, giving me the L. PS.. Bills had 5 turnovers but still found a way to win by 8. So all in all - the three teamer (or a four teamer) would’ve come in.. but it needed a lot to win. Also - my own fault. I got peer pressured into not going w my own picks.. I sniffed something funky w Seattle.. but I got sucked in anyway. Also my fault that the play I lost on, I made my wife wait in the casino on the way to a day trip to place that bet. She was game but I mean.. I probably should’ve done that another time.

PS - I definitely had started typing out what the post would look like had the Niners offense not bailed me out when they were up 2… and it included something to the effect of “I’m retiring the relatively blind faith in strategy with the teasing two -8 ishs.” 49ers bailed me out, but I’m certainly raising an eyebrow now. I am staying steadfast in my system for now, but I was one less Kittle TD away from potentially retiring parlays/tease ish’s altogether. Now maybe this is where the season turns it around, but I’ll have to be very careful here with those chalks.

NFL YTD: 4-7, -19.03 units

The Rams leg won .. after giving up a 16-0 lead they lost by 4 as 1 point chalks (I teased to +5.5) but Jalen Hurts looked terrible and the Eagles offense anemic so the second leg lost. It was a lazy play tbh, I can do better, just bc vs a backup - Case looked good. Eagles barely squeaked by the Titans last week and Tennessee was a minor league team just last year. Parlay individual legs are now 10-5 but those sides ATS would be 6-9. Just not seeing the NFL well right now.

Also ngl I can’t believe how good the Bills looked through 3 weeks (3-0 ATS) and haven’t had any action at all on them after being spurned on overexposure last year.

NFL 10.4.26

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5, Baltimore Ravens -2.5, & Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-148) for 7* units

*I have used a 1-5 unit scale so far this season & for a bit, but I only post what I personally play and I dug into the pockets here.

Chiefs/Raiders Analysis:
I wrote a bit about this the last time I bet the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes has always owned that division. I saw 5 losses by 3 by Patrick Mahomes last year. The cushion could be valuable. While I believe them winning is extremely likely, the thought of grabbing a cushion over a couple key numbers is excellent. If I was betting more straight ATS, I would bet this game on KC, maybe manipulate it to -2 (-182) or -3 (-150). The Chiefs have looked really good this year so far and I think they’re jazzed to get to play a game at 3-0 in Vegas. It is also tough for me to imagine Vegas at 4-0 this year atop that division; I would’ve picked em fourth preseason. And their opponents Dolphins, Chargers, Saints are not the cream of the crop. KC beat Den (we bet ‘em and actually got one of the very few parlay wins this year w the Jets week 1), the Colts who apparently might be good in OT, and the Dolphins. Den’s defense is solid but the KC offense looked good at times. Anyway, I would bet the Chiefs -4.5, manipulated line, moneyline, or like this at +4.5. The only thing I don’t like about this play is three legs is super hard to win. Even laying a -148, I know there will be battles.

Ravens/Titans Analysis:
These next two are kind of close to my normal tease approach. Ravens won last game in Brazil against Cowboys & lost looking ahead into that trip vs the Saints at home which cost me. Ravens should be better at home and this is a must win to prove they’re for real, can’t start 0-2 at home vs two bad or average/below average teams. Is it bad to say we need to find retribution here with my buddies Derrick Henry and Lamar? You guys know I don’t think the Titans are good at all.. but I know they were spunky their last two games. I bet against them in week 1 on the Jets and loved that play.

Vikings/Dolphins Analysis:
This one stings - bc I’m basically saying yes, these two teams got a rough draw in week 4 and Miami/Tennessee are starting 0-4. Arcane getting injured is going to hurt their offense, it has to. And as good as Malik Willis can be, this team is paying far more money to have players not play than will be on the field Sunday for them. I’m also betting on Kyler Murray, I remember a stat about him a couple years ago where he was just really good against bad teams. This situation applies here and after touch and go offensive performances at times this year, this could be a get right game for the Vikings.


The bet & random thoughts/rambling:
Last week a 3 teamer would’ve given me the winning ticket, would’ve been 2-0 and maybe not added Rams/Eagles parlay late. I didn’t pull the trigger and left the +3 on the table for the Seahawks.. they lost by 2 at -8, I bet ML. There’s too often I come across three teams and I have trouble widdling it down. I don’t have a large sample size of 3, but historically wasn’t great that I can particularly remember. But maybe this season we can open it up to an occasional three teamer, case study moment bc the results have to matter! 3 years ago started great (& with teases) but gave it almost all back, two years ago had a good year with them, last year - good with teases but terrible with futures to the point I had a losing season. So this year I thought 2 team parlays only. But now I wonder if I just would’ve done well ATS those years and that’s where I should be.

This three teamer is kind of two plays merged into one parlay. I wanted to go to the well one more time with the heavy chalk/chalk to a FG and see if we can ride the momentum George Kittle brought me last week… so I was always betting Ravens/Vikings. -3 each would’ve been a heavy -245 and -2.5 each was like -278 ish. Adding the Chiefs plus a cushion brought it to a manageable -148. The logic here is if my laying ~2:1 parlays (with a pair of -7.5-10 ish chalks adjusted to a FG or less) go 1-4 in the first four weeks, that’s really more like 1-7 bc each miss costs double & even though it’s just 4 weeks.. that’s a stop ASAP level lack of success. It’s not like the teases other than this specific style were perfect either (1-2 in other parlays). So if the Ravens (-11.5 ish ATS) or Vikings (-10.5 ish ATS) don’t win their game by a FG or more - I gotta kick this (parlay/tease-ish/whatever I call it) strategy to the curb. If they both pull it off, we’re to 2-2 ish on a 2 play win streak… knowing that week 1 is funky. So maybe just, moving forward, avoid week 1 altogether and week 2 proceed with extreme caution.

Second, the Chiefs ATS. Last week I definitely would’ve bet is the Jags -2.5. But instead, I bought them to an unnecessary +6.5 and they won by 30. What was the result? An L bc I paired them with the Seahawks ML (that one hurt esp since I reviewed options with three teams and Hawks +3/3.5 there). Anyway, Chiefs absolutely win this ballgame imo. The reason the Chiefs are kind of like the second play is bc if I picked one game ATS this week it would be the Chiefs. I also would’ve bet the Rams ATS last week but ended up needing my cushion (I bet +5.5, they lost by 4 at -1). I wanna know if I can hit a spread without moving it in a game I love. So if Chiefs win by 5+ and cover their -4.5 spread, I’m thinking I need to consider bringing back ATS bets. If they cover my leg but not their actual spread, then it shows that wow - I guess I need that UA strategy to win. I prob would’ve bet them -2 (-182) btw, fwiw. So, after all this, why am I parlaying them and not going with two separate plays? Well, 1-1 and laying a ton of weight to get there (-250 ish) isn’t good enough to keep this party or this going after my terrible start. Loser and I gotta take a break. If bc a tease leg loses (or both), then I’m abandoning the tease-ish/parlay strategy. If it loses bc of Chiefs and the tease would’ve come in (which alone both at -3 would be -250 by the way, -278 with both at -2.5), then well… the shape of those teases would have a 2-2 record but have lost a lot of vig … it’d prove I’m just still not seeing the NFL well this year and would potentially need a reset anyway. In that case, the tease strategy would still have some potential, I’d just have to be more careful and maybe adjust how I execute it in future years.

If this play wins, ok - won our last two big tease-ish’s (only lost my two secondary parlays last weekend) .. and if Chiefs win by 5 or more, then ok! Some real ATS plays. If they win by 3 or 4 and the manipulated line is what helps bring it home.. then everything is on the table moving forward and I guess that’s a part of my strategy I have to explore! Single plays with manipulated lines, teases, three team parlays, etc. encouraged and back on the table.