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 Phi @ Arz SUNDAY (3:00 EST)
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,797 TEXAS
2008 Bad Man Champion
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OP
2008 Bad Man Champion
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,797 TEXAS |
Phi-4 @ Arz+4 O/U47 on Sunday @ 3:00 EST (FOX)
Phi -4/Arz+4 Side Selection
I can't wait for this game. Let's examine the game. So the line is at Philly -4 as I type this. But where did the line come from?
Well the oddsmakers opened at LVSC with Phi -2.5 and it is currently at at Phi -4.
66% of the public is betting on Philly - the points and 24% is on the ML for Philly. Thus far we know that home teams are only 3-5 SU and against the spreadin the playoffs, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years). We also know that Arizona got it's big win last week with a great defense of performance which played right into the fact that the eight winners in the playoffs are a +16 this far in turnovers, with only San Diego’s win over Indianapolis being the surprise of sorts having a -2 turnover margin. Arizonas defense is playing better than the Eagles so I will bet the turnover edge goes to Arizona where the teams with the turnover edge are 6-1 ATS. So who do I like?
Well, It is only Wednesday, but I(Ranger) see a red flag in backing Philly minus the points here. I think the line will grow to Philly -5 or maybe even -6 as public money backs Phily. I know the Cardinals have overachieved to some degred and that Kurt Warner is old and the team is inexperienced as a whole, but they are just as hot as Philly and I avoid wagering on road favorites when the Moneyline % is less than the spread %. I was leaning towards Arizona and the final deciding factor was the fact that when I plugged this game into MY SMISE system and it spit out a 6.1 for Arizona, that sealed the deal in my mind.
SIDE PICK: So my side pick is Arz +5 ( i think this is where the line will settle)
Phi/Arz O/U 47 Selection
I rarely play O/U in any games but I found a trend that I do not think will continue. The Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point in the playoffs, tying the most in three years,
Furthermore, in the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15. But in the conference championships it shifts gears and the over is 6-2 the last four years in conference championships, and I think we will see more high flying in the Arizona Dome in the dessert.
O/U PICK: Over 47
Luck is for the ill prepared
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 Re: Phi @ Arz SUNDAY (3:00 EST)
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,797 TEXAS
2008 Bad Man Champion
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OP
2008 Bad Man Champion
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,797 TEXAS |
Luck is for the ill prepared
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