Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central NFL 2013 Win the game cover the spread stats.

I'm back for the 2013 NFL season. I follow the NFL more closely than any other sport. Last year I keep track of NFL teams that won SU and covered the spread and plan on doing the same this year. The theory is if you can pick the winner of the game, you cover the spread over 80% of the time. Just looking at last years numbers for weeks 1-17 (YTD 209-40-6 ATS Double Digit Favorites 14-13 ATS & 25-1-1 SU). Just by looking at these stats, I plan on looking at every game each week and try and predict what team will win the game. I plan on keeping track of the ATS record of the winning teams again this year. Any input from others is welcome. GL all on this up coming NFL season. The double digit favorites is something to look at as only 1 team lost and there was a tie game last year. So looking at this, you make some good money placing money line bets on the double digit favorite teams.

I absolutely love this yearly thread that you track. I think that only tie was the SF/STL game if memory serves correct.

Should be interesting to see how things fare this year, I believe we are going to see more of the same, win and you cover. Now it's time to just pick winners.

Looking forward to your updates each week.

gk51 it took 10 years for your first post, but welcome aboard!

I am a slow learner :)

Baltimore 27 Denver 49 W&C
New England 23 Buffalo 21 W&DC
Tennessee16 Pittsburgh 9 W&C
Atlanta 17 New Orleans 23 W&C
Tampa Bay 17 N.Y. Jets 18 W&C
Kansas City 28 Jacksonville 2 W&C
Seattle 12 Carolina 7 W&C
Cincinnati 21 Chicago 24 W&P
Miami 23 Cleveland 10 W&C
Minnesota 24 Detroit 34 W&C
Oakland 17 Indianapolis 21 W&DC
Green Bay 28 San Francisco 34 W&C
Arizona 24 St. Louis 27 W&DC
N.Y. Giants 31 Dallas 36  W&C

So far win the game cover the spread is 10-3-1 Double digit favorites are 0-2 ATS and 2-0 straight up.

Losers are NE -10, Indy -11, STL -3.5, and the push is Chi -3

Baltimore 27 Denver 49 W&C
New England 23 Buffalo 21 W&DC
Tennessee16 Pittsburgh 9 W&C
Atlanta 17 New Orleans 23 W&C
Tampa Bay 17 N.Y. Jets 18 W&C
Kansas City 28 Jacksonville 2 W&C
Seattle 12 Carolina 7 W&C
Cincinnati 21 Chicago 24 W&P
Miami 23 Cleveland 10 W&C
Minnesota 24 Detroit 34 W&C
Oakland 17 Indianapolis 21 W&DC
Green Bay 28 San Francisco 34 W&C
Arizona 24 St. Louis 27 W&DC
N.Y. Giants 31 Dallas 36  W&C
Philadelphia 33 Washington 27 W&C
Houston 31 San Diego 28 W&DC


Week 1 win the game cover the spread is 11-4-1 Double digit favorites are 0-2 ATS and 2-0 straight up.

Losers are NE -10, Indy -11, STL -3.5, Houston -4.5 and the push is Chi -3

Week 2results

NY Jets 10 New England 13 W&DC
St. Louis 24 Atlanta 31 W&C
San Diego 33 Philadelphia 30. W&C
Dallas 16 Kansas City 17 W&DC
Miami 24 Indianapolis 20 W&C
Tennessee 24 Houston 30 W&DC
Washington 20 Green Bay 38. W&C
Cleveland 6 Baltimore 14 W&C
Carolina 23 Buffalo 24 W&C
Minnesota 30 Chicago 31 W&DC
New Orleans 16 Tampa Bay 14 W&DC
Detroit 21 Arizona 25. W&C
Jacksonville 9 Oakland 19 W&C
Denver 41 N.Y. Giants 23 W&C
Pittsburgh 10 Cincinnati 20 W&C

Week 2 11-5

Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 22-9-1. Double digit favorites are 0-3 ATS and 3-0 straight up.

Kansas Cit 26. Philadelphia 16. W&C
Houston 9 Baltimore 30 W&C
N.Y. Giants 0 Carolina 38 W&C
Detroit 27 Washington 20. W&C
San Diego 17 Tennessee 20 W&C
Arizona 7 New Orleans 31 W&C
Tampa Bay 3 New England 23 W&C
Green Bay 30 Cincinnati 34 W&C
St. Louis 7 Dallas 31 W&C
Cleveland 31. Minnesota 27. W&C
Atlanta 23 Miami 27 W&C
Buffalo 20 N.Y. Jets 27 W&C
Indianapolis 27 San Francisco 7. W&C
Jacksonville 17 Seattle 45 W&C
Chicago 40 Pittsburgh 23 W&C
Oakland 21. Denver 37. W&C

Week 3 16-0

Week 2 11-5
Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 38-9-1. Double digit favorites are 2-4 ATS and 5-1 straight up.

Week 4 results

San Francisco 35. St. Louis 11. W&C
Baltimore 20 Buffalo 23 W&C
Arizona 13 Tampa Bay 10 W&C
Pittsburgh 27 Minnesota 34 W&C
N.Y. Giants 7 Kansas City 31 W&C
Indianapolis 37 Jacksonville 3. W&C
Seattle 23 Houston 20 W&C
Cincinnati 6. Cleveland 17 W&C
Chicago 32 Detroit 40 W&C
N.Y. Jets 13 Tennessee 38 W&C
Washington 24. Oakland 14 W&C
Philadelphia 20 Denver 52 W&C
Dallas 21 San Diego 30. W&C
New England 30 Atlanta 23 W&C
Miami. 17 New Orleans 38 W&C


Week 4 16-0

Week 3 16-0
Week 2 11-5
Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 54-9-1 Double digit favorites are 3-4 ATS and 6-1 straight up.

Week 5 results


Buffalo 24. Cleveland 37. W&C
New England 6 Cincinnati 13 W&C
Detroit 9 Green Bay 22 W&C
Seattle 28 Indianapolis 34 W&C
Baltimore 26 Miami 23 W&C
New Orleans 26 Chicago 18 W&C
Philadelphia 36 N.Y. Giants 21 W&C
Kansas City 26 Tennessee 17. W&C
Jacksonville 20 St. Louis 34 W&C
Carolina 6 Arizona 22 W&C
Denver 51 Dallas 48 W&DC
San Diego 17 Oakland 27 W&C
Houston 3 San Francisco 34 W&C
NY Jets 30. Atlanta 28 W&C

Week 5 13-1

Week 4 16-0
Week 3 16-0
Week 2 11-5
Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 67-10-1 Double digit favorites are 4-4 ATS and 7-1 straight up.

I must suck because I can't even pick winners and when I have picked winners they haven't covered the spread. LOL I must've had all 10 of those. Well make it 11 since Chicago won but didn't cover vs the Giants on Thursday. F ME!

Once again in the Super Contest I pick the winner with Seattle, you know the rest. WTF!

Freak, you have to watch out with the double digit favorites as the are lucky to cover 50% of the time. With today's games in they are under 50% now ( record 5-6 ). I'm not doing as well either, of course I pick Cincy at 6 point favorites and they win by 3 today. Best of luck in the coming weeks.

Hey whitesox,

I am not doing well in badman this year and was just trying to read what others have to say etc to try and learn from others. So I was reading this thread but I am not sure if I have just had a few too many rye and cokes tonight but looking at your week 5 info. Here are 2 examples...

Seattle 28 Indianapolis 34 W&C
Baltimore 26 Miami 23 W&C

Seattle was a favorite at -2.5 and lost the game and Miami was favored at -2.5 and lost as well. Your notes (W&C) are what I am not sure of. I had thought it stood for Won and Covered but with the results being what they were, I am maybe too drunk or missing something :)

The lines I mention were the bad man lines that week. Not trying to pick on you or anything, just trying to find more tools to use when making my picks this year and that is why I ask.

thanks

pb

poorboy,

What it means is that Indianapolis won the game and won with the spread. Baltimore won and won with the spread as well.

In an opposite fashion Seattle won the game against TN but lost vs the spread. Even though TN covered the spread they didn't win the game.

The premise here is if you win the game did you cover the spread even as a dog.

Week 6 results

NY Giants 21 Chicago 27 W&DC
Green Bay 19 Baltimore 17 W&DC
Philadelphia 31 Tampa Bay 20 W&C
Pittsburgh 19 N.Y. Jets 6 W&C
Carolina 35 Minnesota 10 W&C
Oakland 7 Kansas City 24 W&C
St. Louis 38 Houston 13 W&C
Cincinnati 27 Buffalo 24 W&DC
Detroit 31 Cleveland 17 W&C
Tennessee 13 Seattle 20 W&DC
Jacksonville 19 Denver 35 W&DC
New Orleans 27 New England 30 W&C
Arizona 20 San Francisco 32 W&C
Washington 16 Dallas 31 W&C
Indianapolis 9. San Diego 19 W&C

Week 6 10-5

Week 5 13-1
Week 4 16-0
Week 3 16-0
Week 2 11-5
Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 78-14-1 Double digit favorites are 5-6 ATS and 10-1 straight up.

Week 6 record has 1 possible change due too the Green Bay line. I have it down as -2.5 and a loss, but I've seen lines of -2 and -1.5. At -2 we have a push and record of 10-4-1 and at -1.5 it is a cover and record would be 11-4.

Poorboy, thanks for your input. Here is why I put this up, my theory is that if you can just pick the winner of the game with no point spread, then you will cover the spread. Looking at the results through week 6, the team winning the game has only not covered 14 times ATS and out of those 14 no covers, 6 of the 14 loses are from teams that were double digit favorites. Hope this makes more sense to you.

Take away from this from my point of view is stay away from double digit favorite games and then just pick the winner of the remaining games for the week. Easier said than done though.

The other take away would be play all double digit Dogs as the are covering at 54.5% right now.
You could also bet the Money Line on all double digit favorites as they are 10-1 straight up.

GL all and any input is welcome.

thanks,

My brain was thinking in a different way last night

I would grade Green Bay as a winner since the closing number was -1.

Week 7 results

Seattle 34 Arizona 22 W&C
Tampa Bay 23 Atlanta 31 W&C
Chicago 41 Washington 45 W&C
Dallas 17 Philadelphia 3 W&C
New England 27 N.Y. Jets 30 W&C
Buffalo 23 Miami 21 W&C
St. Louis 15 Carolina 30 W&C
Cincinnati 27 Detroit 24 W&C
San Diego 24 Jacksonville 6 W&C
Houston 16 Kansas City 17 W&DC
San Francisco 31 Tennessee 17 W&C
Cleveland 13 Green Bay 31 W&C
Baltimore 16 Pittsburgh 19 W&C
Denver 33 Indianapolis 39 W&C
Minnesota 7 N.Y. Giants 23 W&C

Week 7 14-1

Week 6 10-5
Week 5 13-1
Week 4 16-0
Week 3 16-0
Week 2 11-5
Week 1 11-4-1

YTD 92-15-1 Double digit favorites are 5-6 ATS and 10-1 straight up.