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Home Forums Sports Picks Central Statistical Advantages 11/15 Statistical Advantages

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11/15 Statistical Advantages #501733 11/09/20 03:51 AM
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OP FREAK Owner Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 281,781 Likes: 3003 Time to play the Game	Welcome to Statistical Advantages at Freaks Forum Here are other areas of the forum to take part in. Click the link to take you there. Bet The House <--Your selections on today’s card. The Paid Professionals <-- Paid Selections from Professional Handicappers. Free Service Plays <-- Free Selections from Professional Handicappers. Stewards Inquiry <-- Daily Horse Racing Selections Get off the sidelines and into the action. Become a member today Click Here A post a day and your access will stay!

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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502689 11/15/20 04:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS The fans at Lambeau Field will be treated to a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers when they take their seats on Sunday. Oddsmakers opened the Packers as -11-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total opened at 55. Green Bay won its last outing, a 34-17 result against the 49ers on November 05. The Packers covered in that game as a -5.5-point favorite, while the 51 combined points took the game OVER the total. Jacksonville was a 27-25 loser in its last match at home against the Texans. They covered the +7-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 52 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. Jacksonville: Team record: 1-7 SU,3-5 ATS Current Streak: lost 7 straight games. Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay Green Bay: Team record: 6-2 SU,6-2 ATS Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games Green Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games Next up: Jacksonville home to Pittsburgh Sunday, November 22 Green Bay at Indianapolis Sunday, November 22

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502692 11/15/20 04:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	POWER STATS Yards Per Point Name Offense Defense Differential JAC 15.71 13.54 2.17 GB 12.52 13.54 -1.03 Yards Per Pass Name Offense Defense Differential JAC 10.01 11.91 -1.9 GB 11.4 10.71 0.69 Yards Per Rush Name Offense Defense Differential JAC 4.47 4.47 0 GB 4.56 4.53 0.03

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502693 11/15/20 04:37 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	BETTING ODDS TRENDS Green Bay Packers Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games Green Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502694 11/15/20 04:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) Outlook While one team is pretty much done with this season, the other is trying to get a measure of consistency. The Packers remain at the top of a relatively weak NFC North, but they’re struggling to play two quality games in a row. Since the bye week, Green Bay has dusted both Houston and San Francisco, but got drilled by Tampa Bay and couldn’t stop Minnesota’s ground game. Unsurprisingly, those two losses were the Packers’ lowest-scoring games of the year. Points shouldn’t be a problem against Jacksonville, which has proven to be utterly inept on defense ever since its opening victory over the Colts. Since then, the Jaguars have lost seven straight and haven’t held anybody under 27 points in that stretch, with six of those seeing the opponent put up 30 or more. Of course, that number is a death sentence against the Packers: Green Bay is 6-0 when it gets to 30 and 0-2 when it doesn’t.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502695 11/15/20 04:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	How the Public is Betting the Jacksonville/Green Bay Game The public is going all-in on the Packers, as 68 percent of the tickets have come in on Green Bay despite the heavy line. The line hasn’t budged despite that number, but the total has fallen from 54.5 to 50.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502696 11/15/20 04:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Injury Concerns Jacksonville: Safety Andrew Wingard (abdominal), offensive lineman Andrew Norwell (calf), safety Josh Jones (chest), linebacker Kamalei Correa (hip), defensive back Chris Claybrooks (shoulder), linebacker Dakota Allen (ankle), running back Devine Ozigbo (hamstring), defensive tackle Doug Costin (concussion) and defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale (ankle) are questionable. Quarterback Gardner Minshew (thumb) is doubtful, while wide receiver Laviska Shenalut Jr. (hamstring) is probable. Running back Ryquell Armstrong (illness), kicker Josh Lambo (buttocks), and linebacker Shaquille Quarterman (knee) are out. Green Bay: Quarterback John Lovett (knee) and tackle David Bakhtiari (chest) are probable. Wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown (knee), tight end Marcedes Lewis (knee), wide receiver Darrius Shepherd (shoulder), linebacker Christian Kirksey (shoulder), wide receiver Allen Lazard (abdominal), cornerback Kevin King (quadricep), safety Vernon Scott (shoulder), safety Will Redmond (shoulder), tackle Rick Wagner (knee) and cornerback Jaire Alexander (concussion) are questionable.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502697 11/15/20 04:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	When Jacksonville Has the Ball With Gardner Minshew on the bench, Jacksonville has actually gotten more aggressive. That’s for two main reasons. First, Jacksonville really has nothing to lose and might as well throw caution to the wind, given that they’re now 1-7 and won’t be anywhere close to the playoffs. Second, Jake Luton actually has a fairly strong arm, and the Jaguars believe their best chance to win is to let him take chances, despite his lack of experience at the NFL level. It ended up working out decently against Houston, as Luton only tossed one interception in 38 passes and ended up with 304 passing yards. The problem is that Jacksonville pretty much has to pass because the running game just isn’t getting it done. James Robinson ended up with 99 rushing yards, but he needed 25 carries to do it, which just isn’t good enough when you need to keep a potent offense like the Packers off the field. In order to have any hope of staying competitive, Jacksonville will have to throw it often, and that means that D.J. Chark has to have another big game. Against Houston, he caught seven passes for 146 yards and a touchdown and was a big part of Luton’s success.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502698 11/15/20 04:39 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	When Green Bay Has the Ball Throwing this Jacksonville defense against Aaron Rodgers seems to be like throwing a steak to a starving lion. Rodgers looked like his usual self last week against San Francisco, tossing for four touchdowns against the 49ers’ patchwork lineup. Jacksonville doesn’t have the excuse of being banged up the way San Francisco is; this is just a weak defense that hasn’t been able to slow down anyone except Indianapolis. That’s a recipe for disaster against just about anyone, but especially against Rodgers, who’s proving that he’s not slowing down even at age 36. He’s as good as ever this season, tossing 24 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. What makes Rodgers’ performance even more impressive is that virtually everyone on the field knows who the ball is going to and still can’t stop it. Davante Adams has more targets than the Packers’ next two receivers combined, and he’s still managed to go for 675 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on the season. With Aaron Jones in the backfield, the Packers do actually have a solid ground component to their attack, but having Rodgers means they don’t have to use it often.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502699 11/15/20 04:39 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Betting Trends Some underdogs tend to rise up and play to the level of their competition, making them excellent spread bets. Jacksonville is not one of those teams. The Jaguars have covered in just one of their past six games and appear pretty content to simply accept their destiny as one of the weakest teams in the NFL and the high draft pick that comes with that dishonor. To be completely fair, that applies mostly to the Jaguars’ defense, as Jacksonville has hit the over in six of its past eight games as an underdog. Meanwhile, Green Bay tends to get its job done pretty regularly. The Packers have covered the number in five of their past seven games as a favorite and are 4-1 ATS in their past five games at Lambeau Field. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five games in this series, but seeing as how one of those games took place in 2001 when Jake Luton was in kindergarten, don’t read too much into that trend.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502700 11/15/20 04:39 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Weather Report This could be an ugly day for football, as temperatures will be in the mid-40s, and wind and rain are in the forecast. Winds will be blowing west-northwest 14 miles an hour, with about a quarter-inch of rain expected.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502701 11/15/20 04:41 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	This one looks fairly straightforward, as Jacksonville is a bad team going nowhere and doesn’t look at all capable of stopping the Packers’ offense. The Jaguars will put up some points here and there, but they’re not going to be able to keep pace with Rodgers and company, especially not in lousy Wisconsin weather.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502702 11/15/20 04:41 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM VS. DETROIT LIONS The Washington Football Team and the Detroit Lions will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Ford Field. Oddsmakers opened the Lions as -6-point favorites versus the Football Team, while the game's total opened at 46.5. The Lions were a 34-20 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Vikings. They failed to cover the +3-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (54) made winners of OVER bettors. Washington lost its last outing, a 23-20 result against the Giants on November 08. The Football Team failed to cover in that game as a -3-point favorite, while the 43 combined points took the game PUSH the total. Washington: Team record: 2-6 SU,3-4-1 ATS Washington is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road Detroit: Team record: 3-5 SU,3-5 ATS Detroit is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games Detroit is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home Next up: Washington home to Cincinnati Sunday, November 22 Detroit at Carolina Sunday, November 22

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502703 11/15/20 04:42 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	POWER STATS Yards Per Point Name Offense Defense Differential WAS 16.02 13.37 2.64 DET 14.79 13.14 1.65 Yards Per Pass Name Offense Defense Differential WAS 9.41 10.03 -0.62 DET 11.44 11.3 0.14 Yards Per Rush Name Offense Defense Differential WAS 3.9 4.29 -0.39 DET 4.18 4.89 -0.71

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502704 11/15/20 04:42 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	BETTING ODDS TRENDS Detroit Lions Detroit is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games Detroit is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games at home Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington Detroit is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing Washington The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Washington Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington Washington Football Team Washington is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games on the road Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit Washington is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Detroit Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Detroit Washington is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502705 11/15/20 04:44 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Alex Smith will start under center for Washington (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) for the first time since breaking his leg two years ago. He and Washington look to boost their flickering NFC East title hopes with a win over the struggling Lions (3-5, 3-5), whose QB Matthew Stafford suffered a suspected concussion last week.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502706 11/15/20 04:45 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Opening Odds Analysis At the time of writing, Stafford’s uncertain status had caused most sportsbooks to pull this game off the board. The Detroit QB passed the NFL’s concussion protocol on Monday.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502707 11/15/20 04:45 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Washington News & Notes Smith is making his first start since breaking the tibia and fibula in his right leg nearly two years ago, but he has seen action in a couple of relief appearances this year. In fact, Smith threw for 325 yards and a touchdown last week after starter Kyle Allen suffered a potentially season-ending ankle injury. However, Smith also threw three interceptions as Washington couldn’t overcome a 5-0 turnover differential in a 23-20 loss to the Giants. The veteran also didn’t get much help from Washington’s 29th-ranked running game, which gained just 37 yards on the ground. It all sets up for Washington to play another low-scoring contest on the road, where the team has gone UNDER the total in seven of its last 10 games. Washington’s defense continues to hold up its end of the bargain this season, recording five sacks and allowing just 212 yards through the air against the Giants last week to maintain its top ranking against the pass. Washington has also gone UNDER in four of its last five games against NFC opponents.

Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages FREAK #502708 11/15/20 04:45 AM
Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315 Hopewin Freaksforum VIP
Hopewin Freaksforum VIP Joined: Oct 2020 Posts: 27,514 Likes: 315	Detroit News & Notes With their playoff hopes all but dead, Stafford potentially out and head coach Matt Patricia under fire, it’s tough to imagine a fired-up Lions squad taking the field in this one. Detroit looked lifeless defensively in last week’s 34-20 loss at Minnesota, allowing the Vikings to easily march down the field for touchdowns on their first two possessions and surrendering 206 rushing yards to Dalvin Cook. The defeat dropped Patricia’s record in Detroit to 12-27-1, fueling speculation that he’ll be the next head coach to join the unemployment line. Lions bettors aren’t too happy with Patricia, either, as his team has covered just five of its last 19 outings overall and only two of its last nine at home. Even if Stafford does suit up against Washington, he’ll likely have missed practice for a second consecutive week. Stafford didn’t practice prior to the game against Minnesota after being in close contact with someone who had COVID-19, and the NFL’s concussion protocols could keep him out of practice this week as well. If Stafford can’t play, journeyman Chase Daniel will likely take his place. Daniel threw a touchdown and a pick last week in relief of Stafford, completing eight of 13 passes for 94 yards.

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