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 Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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BUFFALO BILLS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
The fans at State Farm Stadium will be treated to a game between the Buffalo Bills and the Arizona Cardinals when they take their seats on Sunday.
Oddsmakers opened the Cardinals as -3-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total opened at 49.
Arizona lost its last outing, a 34-31 result against the Dolphins on November 08. The Cardinals failed to cover in that game as a -6-point favorite, while the 65 combined points took the game OVER the total.
Buffalo won its last outing, a 44-34 result against the Seahawks on November 08. The Bills covered in that game as a +3-point underdog, while the 78 combined points took the game OVER the total.
Buffalo:
Team record: 7-2 SU,4-5 ATS
Current Streak: won 3 straight games.
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Arizona:
Team record: 5-3 SU,5-3 ATS
Arizona is 5-14-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Next up:
Buffalo home to Los Angeles Sunday, November 29
Arizona at Seattle Thursday, November 19
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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POWER STATS
Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
BUF 14.03 14.09 -0.06
ARI 14.65 16.76 -2.11
Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
BUF 11.34 10.54 0.8
ARI 10.81 10.18 0.63
Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
BUF 3.93 4.62 -0.69
ARI 5.28 4.76 0.52
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-14-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Buffalo's last 20 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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The Buffalo Bills, coming off their most impressive win of the season against the Seahawks, face another NFC West team as they head to the desert to take on the Arizona Cardinals. This matchup will feature two young star quarterbacks and likely not a lot of defense.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Opening Odds Analysis
The game opened with the Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) as favorites at -3 but the line has moved down to between -1 and -2 depending on the sportsbook. The total opened at 49 and has risen considerably to either 55.5 or 56 depending on where you look.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Buffalo News & Notes
The Buffalo Bills (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) head to Arizona after putting up 44 points on Seattle as quarterback Josh Allen had one of the most impressive games of his career. Seattle’s defense is bad, but Allen was almost perfect, going 31-for-38 for 415 yards and three touchdowns.
However, Allen’s stellar outing came on the heels of four consecutive comparatively poor performances and it is unclear at this point which player will show up each week: the MVP candidate or mistake-prone dud.
Luckily for Allen, his supporting cast on offense can do some of the heavy lifting as receivers Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis have been among the league’s best foursomes. Diggs has turned into an every-week fantasy and DFS stud as he now leads the league in receptions (63) and receiving yards (813).
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Arizona News & Notes
Led by budding superstar quarterback Kyler Murray, the Arizona Cardinals offense has been potent in its own right. Murray has been efficient this season, ranking in the top 12 in quarterback rating, QBR and completion percentage. But it is on the ground where he is so dangerous.
Murray is eighth in the league in rushing yards, ahead of top backs such as Alvin Kamara, James Conner and Aaron Jones. He operates like a point guard controled by a joystick as his warp-speed change of direction and quickness allow him to distribute the ball or pick up a quick first down unlike any other player in the league.
Of course, it helps having one of the league’s premier receivers in DeAndre Hopkins to occupy the defense’s attention while Murray weaves through traffic. Watch for Hopkins to have a bounce-back game in Week 10 after he was a non-factor against the Dolphins.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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The game is almost a pick’em with two evenly matched teams, two great young quarterbacks and two average or worse defenses. The only thing we are certain of in this game is there will be a lot of points scored.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Heinz Field.
Oddsmakers opened the Steelers as -9.5-point favorites versus the Bengals, while the game's total opened at 49.
Pittsburgh was a 24-19 winner in its last match on the road against the Cowboys. They failed to cover the -14-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 43 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.
Last time out for Cincinnati, they were a 31-20 winner as they battled the Titans at home. The Bengals covered in the match as a +7-point underdog, while 51 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.
Cincinnati:
Team record: 2-5-1 SU,6-1-1 ATS
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-20-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Pittsburgh:
Team record: 8-0 SU,6-2 ATS
Current Streak: won 8 straight games.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Next up:
Cincinnati at Washington Sunday, November 22
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Sunday, November 22
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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POWER STATS
Yards Per Point
Name Offense Defense Differential
CIN 14.92 14.99 -0.06
PIT 11.61 15.77 -4.16
Yards Per Pass
Name Offense Defense Differential
CIN 9.39 11.6 -2.21
PIT 9.33 11.3 -1.97
Yards Per Rush
Name Offense Defense Differential
CIN 3.73 5.25 -1.52
PIT 4.0 4.11 -0.11
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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BETTING ODDS TRENDS
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Pittsburgh is 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-20-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 13 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS)
Outlook
Easy pickings with the AFC North division leader hosting a team that won’t sniff the playoffs, right? Not so fast. The Bengals are a lot better than their record suggests, and except for a blowout loss to Baltimore, Cincinnati has played tough against every opponent on its schedule. Out of six games where the Bengals haven’t come away with a win, five have been by five points or less. That extends to meetings with Pittsburgh as well. The Bengals have lost 10 in a row to the Steelers. That said, six of the past nine matchups have been decided by seven points or less.
As for the Steelers, they were fortunate to survive in Dallas, and now they come home for the first time since Oct. 18. That game was also the only time that they really pounded an opponent at Heinz Field, as they’ve allowed the Broncos, Texans, and Eagles to stay close with them before ultimately pulling out a victory. Pittsburgh is not a team that blows out its opposition; rather, the Steelers win because they play disciplined football, don’t beat themselves, and cash in when they have a quality possession. Will that be enough to cover a large spread against a young and hungry Bengals team that appears very much on the rise?
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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How the Public is Betting the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Game
Sharps didn’t wait on this one, and as a result, the line has fallen fast. The Bengals went on the board as 10-point underdogs, but with 54% of tickets on them and more before the line dropped, the number has fallen to 7.5. The total has come down with it, dropping to 46 from 49.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Injury Concerns
Cincinnati:
Defensive end Sam Hubbard (elbow), running back Joe Mixon (foot), wide receiver John Ross (illness), tackle Bobby Hart (knee), center Trey Hopkins (concussion), tackle Jonah Williams (neck), guard Michael Jordan (not that one, illness) and corner Darius Phillips (groin) are questionable. Defensive end Margus Hunt is out indefinitely with illness.
Pittsburgh:
Linebacker Vince Williams, tackle Jerald Hawkins, tight end Vance McDonald and running back Jaylen Samuels are out indefinitely with COVID concerns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (knee) is questionable, while cornerback Mike Hilton (shoulder) is questionable.
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When Cincinnati Has the Ball
Joe Burrow seems to be the right man for the job in Cincinnati, as he’s getting better every week and has thrown five touchdowns against just one interception in his past two starts. However, he’s now got to show that he can do it away from Paul Brown Stadium. His three worst games of the season have all come away from home, and he failed to throw a touchdown against either Indianapolis or Baltimore.
However, the last game against Tennessee was a significant step forward for Cincinnati. Not only did the Bengals get a convincing win, but they did it without Joe Mixon on the field. The running game wasn’t exactly up to par with Giovani Bernard running the show, but it did enough to get the job done and allow Burrow to throw the ball consistently well and not turn the ball over. It seems Burrow is really developing a connection with Tee Higgins, as the rookie receiver has accumulated 2274 receiving yards and a score in the Bengals’ past three games. Given the Bengals’ defensive liabilities, Burrow and Higgins have to keep that connection going in order to keep pace with the Steelers.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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When Pittsburgh Has the Ball
The big question for the Steelers is whether Roethlisberger will be able to play. He’s officially listed as battling a knee issue, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The reality is that Roethlisberger was in close contact with Vance McDonald, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday, meaning the quarterback can’t be at the team facility until Saturday. To hear the Steelers tell it, Roethlisberger would have been limited in practice anyway because of sore knees, but were he not battling COVID concerns, he’d be playing for sure on Sunday.
Regardless of whether it’s Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph under center, Pittsburgh will likely opt for a steady dose of James Conner to try to exploit a Cincinnati run defense that just is not getting the job done. The Bengals might have bested Tennessee, but it certainly wasn’t because they could stop Derrick Henry, who ended up with 112 yards and a score in a losing effort for the Titans. Beyond Conner, Pittsburgh’s offense will center around pass-catchers Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the extent to which they’re involved depends a lot on who is under center. If Roethlisberger plays, both should see plenty of targets. However, Mason Rudolph might play it a little safer if he gets the call.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Betting Trends
Playing on the road is no big deal for Cincinnati, as the Bengals don’t have much of a home-field advantage anyway and actually seem pretty comfortable away from home. In their past 16 road games, the Bengals have managed to cover 11 times, and they’re 5-1 ATS in their past six games against AFC opponents. However, the Steelers have tended to dominate the line at home, covering in six of their past eight games at Heinz Field. They’ve also had the better of things against Cincinnati when the Bengals make the trip east, as they’ve covered in five of seven against Cincinnati at Heinz Field.
Points don’t tend to be part of the plan when the Steelers face their division rivals, as seven of their past ten against AFC North opponents have seen the under cash. The Bengals are no exception to this trend: the over hasn’t cashed in this series since 2017, and the teams haven’t combined to top 44 points at Heinz Field since 2013. In fact, 12 of the last 13 meetings in Pittsburgh have finished with 44 points or less.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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Weather Report
The weather has all the makings of a nasty day for football, with the wind blowing south-southwest at 10 miles an hour and a steady rain looking likely throughout the contest. The one plus is that the temperature won’t be terrible, as kickoff is expected to be around 62 degrees.
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Re: 11/15 Statistical Advantages
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With bad weather and the Steelers’ defense involved, this has all the makings of another game hitting the under between these teams
Another reliable trend: Cincinnati keeping the game close. The Bengals aren’t yet ready to defeat the Steelers.
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams meet at SoFi Stadium.
Oddsmakers opened the Rams as -1-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total opened at 53.5.
In their last action, Los Angeles was a 28-17 loser on the road against the Dolphins. They failed to cover the -3.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (45) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.
In their last action, Seattle was a 44-34 loser on the road against the Bills. They failed to cover the -3-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (78) was profitable news for OVER bettors.
Seattle:
Team record: 6-2 SU,5-3 ATS
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Los Angeles:
Team record: 5-3 SU,4-4 ATS
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
Next up:
Seattle home to Arizona Thursday, November 19
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay Monday, November 23
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