Home Forums The Asylum Shoot The Breeze Circa Survivor

Some of you may have heard me talk about the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas.

It started with 4,080 entrants and after week 10 is down to only 173 entrants.

The way the contest works is you pick one team each week to win (no point spread) once you use the team, you can’t use them again.

The added twist to the contest is that they treat Thanksgiving Day as a separate week and the Thursday game before Christmas and the Christmas Day games as a week. So instead of needing 18 winners, you need 20.

These were my picks:

W1 - DEN
W2 - CLV
W3 - CAR
W4 - CIN
W5 - MN
W6 - KC
W7 - NE
W8 - LAR
W9 - BAL
W10 - IND

The teams I have left to use are:

AZ, ATL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, JAX, LVR, LAC, MIA, NO, NYJ, NYG, PHI, PIT, SF,SEA,TB, TN, WAS

Keep in mind that I have to save teams for Thanksgiving and Christmas

Thanksgiving games are CHI/DET - LVR/DAL - BUF/NO
Christmas games are: SF/TN - CLV/GB - IND/AZ

I have all Thanksgiving teams at my disposal right now and for Christmas I have SF, TN, GB, AZ

Here comes week 11 and when it starts to get tough. Remember lose once and you’re out.

Tennessee is the obvious pick but I want to save them to have them available at Christmas if at all possible.

I know for certain that 172 of the 173 left have Tennessee available to them as well. It will be a popular choice this week as it should be.

What’s your play for week 11?

On a side note, I ended up for third in the William Hill College Football Contest in Las Vegas. I ended up 50-30 against the spread. The co-winners won with a 51-29 record. They won $325K each, I won nearly $67K. A huge dropoff to say the least but there is no shame on my part. It’s a very difficult contest and I’ll be back to take them on next year. First thing first, I want to get this 6 million. It’s not every week you get a 1 in 173 opportunity to strike the gold !!

You're right that most people will be taking the Titans to win. If they happen to lose, and you got another team that wins, you'll be sitting pretty nice with the teams left probably around 30 or so.

If you want to go different from the pack and they take the Titans, maybe the Bucs are the way to go. The back to back loses are worrisome on top of the bye week but coach Arians saying they are a stupid team should motivate them to be ready.

Wow, great job cashing in that $67k man. Yeah there's a drop off but a definitely a nice haul. Great job!

The way I look at it now is that I'm half way home at the very least and I have a grouping of teams that can get me there and I'm going to need some luck the rest of the way.

Top Tier (Good Teams Left)

AZ, BUF, DAL, GB, TB, TN

Mid Tier (Decent Teams)

LVR, LAC, NO, SEA

Lower Tier (Really Don't Trust)

ATL, PHI, PIT, SF, WAS

Bottom Tier (No way in hell do I want to count on them)

CHI, DET, HOU, JAX, MIA, NYJ, NYG,

This list can change from week to week based on teams used and situational type things.

Never take Jets. Coming from Jets fan

Good luck Freak, hope you can win this contest.
I would take Tampa Bay this week.

I've been working on this and as I did before the season started I mapped out the rest of the season. Before the season started I mapped out a game plan and plan B for the whole season but I made some adjustments as I've gone along and it has paid off.

When I look at the remaining weeks schedule this is my thought process:

W11 - TN, TB , LAC
W12 - Thanksgiving Day - DAL, BUF
W13 - SF, ATL, MIA
W14 - BUF, TB, PHI
W15 - NO, TN
W16 - BUF, MIA, JAX
W17 - Thursday and Christmas Day - GB, AZ
W18 - NYJ, LAC, NO, BUF
W19 - BUF, TN, TB, SF, SEA
W20 - BUF, GB, TB, TN

As I take one of the teams in the list, then the choices later on shrink. It's just a matter of getting in a position to make the best play possible and use the equity I built up the first half of the season to pay off on the back end.

I AM GOOD FRIENDS WITH THOSE GUYS THERE FOLLOW THE MONEY RADIO SHOW AND MIKE PALM ALONG WITH DEREK GOOD LUCL WAS THERE HALLOWEEN WEEKEND AWESOME TIME .

Freak
Based on your mapping of the remaining weeks, I agree that TB would be the logical choice this week. Painful loses, big egos, stacked with talent, and the need to right the ship.
Good luck, and thank you for all you do for all of us!

Pretty cool how you mapped it out BEFORE the season started. Most guys just go week to week. And it's paid off for you so far. Hope you continue to win Freak.

Freak it looks like you have things under control and I agree with Raiders that I would think a lot would be going week to week.

Looking forward to seeing you take this week and will be monitoring.

Good Luck

The pick that was placed for this week is Tampa Bay on Monday Night.

Good Luck FREAK

TB gets the job done and I advance to Thanksgiving Day games.

39 more eliminated in Week 11 bringing the total down to 134 remaining.

W1 - DEN
W2 - CLV
W3 - CAR
W4 - CIN
W5 - MN
W6 - KC
W7 - NE
W8 - LAR
W9 - BAL
W10 - IND
W11 - TB

The teams I have left to use are:

AZ, ATL, BUF, CHI, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, JAX, LVR, LAC, MIA, NO, NYJ, NYG, PHI, PIT, SF,SEA,TN, WAS


Top Tier (Good Teams Left)

AZ, BUF, DAL, GB, TN

Mid Tier (Decent Teams)

LAC, SF

Lower Tier (Really Don't Trust)

ATL, LVR, NO, PHI, PIT, SEA, WAS

Bottom Tier (No way in hell do I want to count on them)

CHI, DET, HOU, JAX, MIA, NYJ, NYG


When I look at the remaining weeks schedule this is my thought process:

W12 - Thanksgiving Day - DAL, BUF
W13 - ATL, HOU, MIA, PHI, SF,
W14 - BUF, PHI
W15 - NO, TN
W16 - BUF, MIA, JAX
W17 - Thursday and Christmas Day - GB, AZ
W18 - NYJ, LAC, NO, BUF
W19 - BUF, TN, SF, SEA
W20 - BUF, GB, TN

This is what I know:

3 people have 3 entries alive
8 people have 2 entries alive

37 of the remaining 134 used both Buffalo/Dallas
68 have used Buffalo but not Dallas
15 have used Dallas but not Buffalo
14 have Buffalo and Dallas of which I am one of those 14

You got this brother, I have reviewed the spreadsheet, and your logic and math are the path to moving ahead. Those are your only two choices for TGing. Review, crosscheck and get the win brother... Wishing you the best of luck!!!

This week is pretty tough. Dallas will be without their WR 1 Amari Cooper with Covid and WR2 Ceedee Lamb is questionable. We saw how Dallas was last week when they were out.

If I had to choose between them and Buffalo I probably take Dallas as they're at home.

Good luck to you Freak whoever you take this week.

Looking forward to the pick. At least this is better than LeBitches the announcement.

Dallas is my entry for today. Let's get it home!

Good Luck FREAK I'm jumping all over the ML. Let's Ride !

I'm hoping for an easy no sweat win for you. Good luck man.

Good Luck

80 Dallas
21 Bears
15 Bills
14 Lions
4 Raiders

No one selected Saints

Thanks everyone for the support, it just wasn't meant to be.

I gotta tell you this is deeply deflating for me. The time put into this, the planning, the lack of sleep and to lose this way is just a tough one to swallow.

You get a team to score 33 at home and they lose.

Anthony Brown 4 pass interference calls against him with the one in overtime on a third and 18 no less. Sure Zuerlein missed a FG but it was 56 yards, those are tough although the Raiders kicker made them with ease. The missed extra point, but hell the first 2 point conversion play was something out of college desperation.

Elliott nowhere to be found all game. I don't want to hear about the WR out for Dallas, they scored 33 points !!!!!

The defense got torched by a bad team. Look I'm a life long Raiders fan and this team isn't good at all. I'd be kidding myself if I thought they were. Bad play calls, bad coaching, a ton of missed opportunities yadda yadda

Want to know what irks me more than anything. I saved Buffalo for Thanksgiving to use them specifically for Thanksgiving. They lose to JAX 9-6, I forgave that, but then to lose at home last week 41-15 to INDY wasn't something to forgive or forget. I can really kick myself in the nuts for not sticking to the script but let's face it, a 8 point favorite at home that's used to playing on Thanksgiving and playing a poor running defense or taking Buffalo wounded on the road. I think I made the ultimate right decision but just got the wrong result. Buffalo will rout the Saints and I'll just look back at a what could have been.

Always next year but this one hurts, I had it all in front of me to run the table............ #sick

Damn brother, I feel the pain and was pulling for you all the way... An excellent run though...

Well said. So many things went wrong for the Cowboys and they still were in it. As a Raider fan I have to say the officiating was pretty bad against the Cowboys. Like you said the PI's and Zuerlein missing an easy XPT hurt where they later had to go for two, and missed that too. Tough one man. I feel for you.

I know you're likely still stunned, sad, deflated, sick whatever words you want to use that don't feel good. I want to say THANK YOU to you. I was able to live vicariously through you like I was the one in the contest. I never would've had the high with Tampa Bay last week and the emotional roller coaster yesterday with Dallas. While I didn't feel the pain you had, I felt it not for me but for you.

It's not easy what you do here in the forum day in, day out for over 20 years and to cash in the William Hill contest and be down to what was the final 120 people in a contest that had over 4,000 people in it is a great accomplishment. I know you're likely not thinking of it that way and I guess I wouldn't either but you did really well.

Keep your chin held high and please don't do the what if or I should've stuff. You made a great decision that just didn't work out the way it should've.

Have no shame, pick yourself up, dust yourself off and get back on that horse and ride it hard straight to the winners circle.

Let's ride!

cash - I appreciate your words because all of those emotions and more are swirling around me since that game ended. When it was over, I just shut off my soundbar and tv and walked away. I never once got angry or swore. During the game, I never got overly excited or cheering, I was like a rock, I was just there in the moment watching time go by or something. It was strange because I do cheer and mother f players or yell out get his ass, he's wide open throw it to him etc. I'm a fun kind of person to watch games with but I wasn't that person during the game yesterday.

I clapped once when Dallas got a passing TD but then it was over turned by a holding call. I did say something out loud when they tied it to force overtime but other than these two moments I didn't do anything else.

Perhaps because I was home alone on Thanksgiving, perhaps because I was confident Dallas would win. I have no idea.

I'm numb today because I know what was in front of me and I was set up beautifully.

I think the disappointment of losing out of William Hill by 1 game lingers and now add this on top of it and it's a bad mixture of raw emotions. Unless you've been in this spot, you really don't know how it feels. There's no real way to describe it to be honest but it's not a good feeling at all.

Don't get me wrong, the money would've been great, but to me at this point, I feel I've let people down. I feel I've let the forum members down. I've always said I didn't want to be the biggest forum because of all the problems and idiots that come with it, but deep down I wanted the site to get some recognition, get some new members, get people posting, make people proud to be here. There's no bigger light to shine than say that the winner came from here and more importantly me as the owner. I guess it would feel like I legitimized everything I've been trying to bring to the members and public for nearly 25 years.

This stings more than people will ever know and while it's true, I could've escaped yesterday to only lose this Sunday or some other day in the season, I truly don't believe that would've happened. I don't say that as being cocky or arrogant, I just know the way I planned this out starting two months before the season and how I adapted and made moves that others didn't make. I had all six teams available for Thanksgiving, I don't think many others if anyone else did. I had a big majority of top tier teams left to use and I avoided some of the biggest beats up until the one that ended mattering the most.

Looking back would I change the pick, hindsight is a funny thing but the answer remains no. They could go play that game 99 more times and I can't see the outcome coming out to the Raiders the vast majority of the times.


Raiderguy and parlaypaulie - thanks for being a part of this ride. 28 accepted penalties in a highlighted holiday game is over the top. No other game this year has come close to that and won't for the rest of the season. I appreciate your comments and support.

If I missed anyone, it's not intentional, I appreciate all of you and your efforts here in the forum.

Continued success to everyone.

I may not post much and be a huge lurker but I appreciate everything you have done. I know you're not in a good space with this now but you didn't let anyone down. These type contests aren't easy and you said it yourself you avoided a lot of big upsets that the vast majority of others didn't.

That game yesterday was bs when it came to officiating the game. The game should always be determined by the players but those refs and that crew have been penalty happy all year and yesterday was no different. For everything that went wrong with Dallas you still had a shot and that's all you can really ask for.

One thing you did mention that stuck to me is about forum recognition. This forum hands down is a gold mine and a gem. I don't know why it isn't bigger but I think like another person said in another thread, the people that are members of the forum really need to get involved here. I am guilty as charged and will try to do better.

Chin up sir.