Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central The Unfair Advantage NFL/NBA

YTD: 7-5, +2.8 units

Pending: NFL 10/21/24 & 10/27/24
Ravens +4.5 & Pit ML (-143) for 2 units

Found some good fortune after starting the season 0–5, but the record can be deceptive because mine should always aim to be at 50% or better bc I lay so much vig so often. It’s really more about the units. KC it’s worth noting did win by 7 which would not have covered ATS. Chargers rolled, Ravens rolled, Rams won outright by 10.

NBA 10/28/24

Phoenix Suns -4 (-107) for 4 units

This is my first basketball play of the year and I am coming out with a 4 unit play out of the gate (I use a 1-4 unit scale). There are a few reasons for this one, but seeing Bradley Beal at the shoot around today gave me the confidence to go with a four unit play and not three. The Lakers are 3–0, their last win came from a Herculean effort by LeBron James, and the last time they played Phoenix at home, it took ridiculous shooting statistics to win that ball game. Last year, the Suns were a good home team and the Lakers were not a great road team… And most importantly of all the Lakers go to Cleveland in their next game. This is a perfect spot for LeBron to take it a little bit easy and when it comes to professional sports, that 10% sometimes completely makes or breaks the difference in a game. admittedly, I do look at the paid professionals, and Indian cowboy is probably the one I respect the most – certainly when it comes to NBA – but I definitely have done my homework as well and stand by this play on my own.

NFL 11/3/24 & 11/4/24

Minnesota Vikings +3 & KC Chiefs -2 (-141) for 4 units

Love this play to let it rip. Went against the Vikings last Thurs and loved it, backing them this time to get back on track (plus a small cushion just in case they lose by a FG or less). Vikings are a good squad, Indy is maybe a fringe playoff team at best. This is the type of game you’re getting good value with the Vikes bc a Joe Flacco Colts squad looks fun and Min lost 2 straight. Joe’s good tho. And love the Chiefs here in Primetime at home against a Bucs team w no top WRs. I was on them last week and I’m not normally too often a Chiefs backer or heavy public side play (or try not to) but realized last week maybe I should occasionally! I would doubt they’ll run the table but I don’t think they stop winning this week. Mahomes also is starting to build momentum after all that trash talking about his play in that undefeated start.

NFL YTD: 8-5, +4.8 units

NBA YTD: 0-0-1, even

I looked at the Pho ML but it was -165/-167 something like that and no way there was enough value imo for that. Was lucky to snag the push after Lakers started up like 20 in the 1st and Beal (ironically) made two FT pretty much as time expired to take the W from 2 to 4. Suns were a backdoor push, lucked out. LeBron is awesome, much respect to what that dude is doing out there. And kudos to KD and the Suns to come back and get that push.

This NFL play is probably my last before a couple week break traveling. I make my plays in person to help keep the beast in check lol. GL all in the meantime!

NFL 11/3/24 & 11/4/24

Baltimore Ravens -3 & LA Rams +4.5 (-129) for 2 units
Baltimore Ravens -3 & Dallas Cowboys +9.5 (-139) for 1 unit
Baltimore Ravens -3 & KC Chiefs -2 (-155) for 1 unit

1-4 unit scale still being used, this makes Balt a 4 unit tease side again, like last week. Also, this makes KC a lift up the action lol 5 unit side. Love KC at home v TB there. I also love Balt at home here.. they’re the better 5-3 team, and I’m keeping Denver on pumpkin watch. Balt at home is a hard out for Bo Nix even w Payton and that defense, he won’t be able to beat up the Balt secondary as much as a Burrow, I don’t think. Also traveling East doesn’t help. Dallas in a “must not be pathetic” spot. I think they win and Atl isn’t actually that good other than beating up the Bucs and NFC South. The Rams here, for the third week in a row I’m on their side. They have turned their season around a bit so far and getting to .500 here would be huge. I expect a battle and think Seattle isn’t all that great, maybe overrated a little.

YTD: 12-5, +12.8 units

Baltimore rolled by like 30, the 8.5 pt fave would’ve covered on their own. The Cowboys needed every bit of that tease to score a garbage time TD to get a backdoor cover and lose by 6 w a +3.5 original line. The Rams won by 6 in OT, but there were opportunities for them to lose by 6. I didn’t play Rams +6 bc odds went from like +4.5 (-129) to +6 (-155). Rams got the job done and were in control though. The Vikings as 5.5 point ish faves (they were like 5 when I put the play in) won outright by 8. Other than down 7-0 at half they really were mostly in control once halftime ended. As for KC, they needed every bit of that tease. Mahomes found an awesome win on that first OT drive 30-24. They had a chance to win it by 7 at end of regulation too and.. don’t forget I got a little lucky - Bucs easily could’ve gone for two at the end of the 4th instead of XP, which would’ve taken out the play. Kudos to an amazing Baker ballgame and a tougher than I expected Bucs squad. As 9 point faves and Mayfield missing his top 2 WRs - I liked KC a lot here. This down to the wire game is why I only am only doing a max of five units of exposure per tease side (still 1-4 unit plays). Mentioned before but I’m taking a little break due to travel, trying to hold myself accountable, planning on taking at least two weeks off. Sports betting is humbling and winging it or putting less thought into things is when losses come (can come in waves for me once an L rolls in). Just reminding myself how fickle sports betting can be. Better season after starting 0-5, -15.2 units, but my W/L can be a little deceiving bc I’ve used a specific tease side multiple times and I use heavy vig plays.

Worth noting that I frequently say “tease pairs” bc for all intents and purposes that’s what they are, but at my casino I always enter them as multi leg parlays. This is bc if you push a leg of a parlay, it just reduces the amount of legs - whereas if you push one side of a tease, it’s historically a loss. That is all. Good luck everybody! 🍀

Nice run. Thanks.

Thank you!

NFL 11/17/24 & 11/18/24

Miami Dolphins -1.5 & LA Rams +3 (-152) for 2 units
Miami Dolphins -1.5 & Houston Texans -1.5 (-143) for 2 units

Mentioned this the other day in Bet the House.. but as for the Dolphins, Tua is excellent. Should he be playing ball? Probably not humanely, but that offense looks good when he’s in there. The game against the Bills the other week.. they looked real good - Josh just did Josh things. Then let’s unpack their games - against the Cards, great great effort. Against the Rams? Liked them there, that had fishy game written all over it, even mentioned it to my wife that Mon before that game played. Also - look at the home/road splits for both teams last year. Lots of things coming together for the Dolphins in a must win game… plus a west coast team traveling East.

That’s what made them a four unit tease side for me, although don’t forget, I always play those as parlays so you can get more pushes or stay alive with one side pushing. I know, coming back from my honeymoon. I thought I may take the week off, but I had some time and was able to dig in. I said that I didn’t love the idea of laying seven, especially with Raiders coming off a bike, but last year off a bike – they lost three nothing. I’m serious, three nothing. So giving them extra time doesn’t necessarily mean they will come out of the gates hot. Miami just needs it so bad and are potentially a playoff team. They needed a pair, though, I ended up getting scared off of San Francisco because there’s just something so fishy about that game. I don’t know that I think Seattle is that good, but I don’t really wanna touch it. When I came across the Houston game, I really liked that. Dallas with Cooper Rush is really not a formidable opponent, the fact that they are 0–4 at home actually concerns me because they are going to be hearing all about it this week… Plus they got smoked by 20+ the last two times at home, but it might just be an ability thing. Houston really needs it. With Nico Collins, also coming back, I like them there as a two unit side for now, but I could see myself pairing it with something next week if the opportunity presented itself. As for the Rams, they’ve been all over my forum thread for the past few weeks. I’ve gone with them a couple times And in that Monday night game, as 2.5 point favorites at home against Miami, I still said it was no good.. rams with Stafford and McVay can find ways to get it done, especially with their receivers back. The only issue people are having with them is their red zone success, which is pretty much coach and quarterback, I have faith that those two can potentially figure it out. I also think Brissett is better than May for the Patriots, but they are going with May for many obvious reasons, including the fact that this season isn’t the one for them. I think the Rams win this one outright, but catching a field goal makes this a nice side.

*Raiders off a bye lol not a bike.

And thanks for tuning into my ramblings 70sman and all!

I use voice to text quite often, so please excuse the typos like Maye and/or grammar. Good luck all! 🍀

NFL 11/18/24 & 11/24/24

Houston Texans -1.5 (11/18) & Miami Dolphins ML (-152) for 3 units

Pending NFL 11/17/24 & 11/18/24: Miami Dolphins -1.5 & Houston Texans -1.5 (-143) for 2 units

YTD:13-5, +14.8 units

Now this is an ironic one isn’t it? While I have a tease of the Texans and dolphins pending a Texans game this evening, I am doing another one with the Texans this evening and the Miami Dolphins next week against the Moneyline. My casino does not allow you to manipulate the lines this early in the week, but you can use the moneyline. If you want even more, ironic, I may end up pairing next week‘s Miami with next week Houston again if Houston wins tonight and there are no major injuries, etc. So this does make Houston a five unit side, my max play is still four units – but I allow myself to go up to five for any individual side. While yes, Dallas got embarrassed twice in a row at home - and is 0-4 at home - and will probably come in motivated, I just don’t think they can do anything about it with Rush at QB. Houston absolutely needs a win here. With Nico Collins coming back, they will have a little more fire power, but they are still an excellent team and need this win. I wouldn’t necessarily feel comfortable laying 7.5 which seven or 7.5 is the line, I do feel comfortable laying 1.5 points. As for adding Miami this upcoming week, you can practically read my last analysis. I think Tua is a great quarterback when healthy and I believe Drake May is potentially a good young quarterback, but that Patriots team is not good enough this year, in my opinion, and I believe Miami wins a third straight with their backs against the wall.

NFL 11/24/24

Houston Texans -1.5 & Miami Dolphins -1.5 (-150) for 2 units

Pending NFL 11/18/24 & 11/24/24: Houston Texans -1.5 (11/18) & Miami Dolphins ML (-152) for 3 units

YTD: 14-5, +16.8 units

Lol! For the third straight play, I’m going with some kind of Houston/Miami tease. this makes Miami a five unit side, why? No reason other than I believe there is value in Tua at home against Drake Maye and a weaker patriots team. Then I grew up knowing. I do not love the fact that Miami plays on Thanksgiving, One may think it could be a look ahead moment, but I’m sure they noticed how tough the patriots played the Rams last week and it’s a division game. As I mentioned in the last analysis, I think Tua is a great quarterback and they do reallllly need another W here to be taken playoff seriously and justify that #10 Herd Hierarchy ranking. That said, I may like the Texans against the Titans here even more. They are around eight point favorites, Miami is around seven or 7 1/2. The Titans are a weak team and Houston has been playing great at home. I don’t believe there is really any shot for a trap game for Houston, especially with them getting back on track against Dallas and then returning home. Titans aren’t very good.

NFL 11/24/24

Houston Texans -1.5 & KC Chiefs -3.5 (-136) for 3 units

This will bring Houston to a five unit side for me, both them and Miami are five unit sides this week. I’m adding this play to the one I have already for 11/24 and the one pending (last post). As I mentioned in the last analysis, I like Houston here. I know there are question marks around their offensive line against a strong Tennessee defensive line, but Houston still needs this win and has no lookahead game and it’s a division game. Nico Collins returning last week provided a much needed lift, he will be playing again this week as far as I know. I like Houston here to take care of business. Pairing them with KC… now this pains me. I really wanted to get KC -3.. I really did. But this same play is -162 with that extra hook. That’s too big of a price to pay for that hook and I can’t justify it mathematically. If you follow me, you know, I love getting under that field goal number, but off a loss, I think KC can still take care of business. If they are an elite team, beating the Panthers by four or more shouldn’t be too tough of a challenge. One thing that is interesting though is that Carolina will be coming off a bye in the middle of a four game home stand, with winning the first two. If this were a baseball or basketball team and they lose this third game, that fourth game at home would actually be an interesting spot where Carolina might feel very inclined to bring their best A game. I am not going to put too much stock in their two game win streak, though, because it was against the Saints and Giants, both of those teams are terrible. The Saints had some people hoodwinked after two weeks, but they are not very good, and the Giants just cut Who I believe is their most expensive player Danny Dimes lol. He’s also not a starting level quarterback for a playoff team in my opinion, but I do think he’s the kind of guy that will get another shot or two and he could pleasantly surprise us like Baker Mayfield is in Tampa Tampa Bay. So that said, this week I like Miami and Houston to take care of business, and Kansas City should be able to beat up a weaker team off a loss. Buy beat up, they may very well win by 7 to 10 points, but it should feel comfortable if they are an elite team.

Also I had looked at the Niners +7/8 ish, but with Purdy and Bosa both facing injuries .. I don’t trust it. Plus Super Bowl hangover - watch out..

YTD: 15-7, +12.7 units

After starting the NFL season 0-5, -15.2 saying “parlays and teasers are suckers bets” semi frustrated, semi speaking the truth, and semi tongue in cheek.. (that’s a main part of the Unfair Advantage NFL strategy, relying on accurate and sharp lines), was very fortunate and lucky to go on a 15-0 run. I ended up 1-2 today (the 1 win a rollover from my 11/18 play and two losses today due to Houston - went back to that Houston well one too many times).

Tua played great, Dolphins rolled and were up 31-0 at one point. The Houston Texans was a nail biter. There were times when a 1 point win was in question (don’t like that when you have them -1.5).. Levis looked great and when there were chances for Houston to really take over, they left chances on the table. This play took every bit of the tease and luck (with a pick six for example). Houston ended up down 3 and missed a freaking 28 yard field goal with under 2 mins left. But even with a last shot for Houston, Tennessee’s d line proved to be too much.

The Chiefs was actually flirting right around the line too and 3 point wins were a real possibility at times. Bryce Young looked really good, especially that final drive w two mins left, good for him. Chiefs were up 20-6 and 27-16 and blew those leads. Ended up getting to 27-27. But with Houston’s loss it doesn’t matter anymore. Ironically Chiefs ended up winning 30-27.. that would’ve stung also. Those losses - when you do trades, parlays, etc with heavy weight will always lose “heartbreakers.” It’s the design of the play. ***and … this is a reminder… for this strategy, getting them to 3 is a MUST.*** and PS both Purdy and Bosa ended up being inactive and the line ended up moving, glad I avoided that. Although who knows after the L’s.

NFL 11/24/24

LA Rams +9 & Philadelphia Eagles/LA Rams Under 56 (-152) for 2 units

Had the Rams here on my radar and like Matt Stafford to put up a fight with both receivers back and in there. Philly likes to run, Rams like to run - under seems viable here with a big total. Everyone is really high on Philly, I think they’re good - but not go into LA and beat them by double digits this week good, imo.

YTD: 15-8, +9.7 units

All about the units and don’t forget heavy vig plays unfortunately bring units down faster than they go up. Neither side covered and Rams lost by 17.

NFL 12/1/24

TB Bucs ML & Buffalo Bills -1 (-107) for 4 units

It looks like such a simple play, but there is a lot to it. When it comes to the Bucs, yes Godwin is out but Evans is back and this just screams the type of game that Baker Mayfield wins. If you look at their schedule this year, their losses, they had a few in a row, they were against good teams, and they played good games. Four losses in a row against the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers. Those are excellent football teams and they’re kinda somewhat “supposed to” lose those - or certainly can lose those. Then they had their bye week and then they clobbered the terrible Giants. Carolina did not overnight become an amazing football team, they just played some good games during the four game homestand. They gave their all against a hit or miss Chiefs team that always finds a way, so they are playing with confidence, but I think the Bucs just need it and I think they are a low level playoff caliber team and I don’t believe the Panthers are yet. Bucs seem to find a way in games like this. Plus, I’m rooting for Baker this year.

As for the Bills, two names tell me all I need to know. Trent Williams and Joey Bosa - neither of them are playing and yes, Purdy coming back is a lift for the 49ers after an anemic offensive performance last week, but it is not necessarily enough to lead me to believe the 49ers will go into Buffalo in primetime and hand them their first loss in Western New York this season. Yes, Josh Allen did get engaged, that could be a distraction – but the team is so solid and if you do believe in narrative pushing – Josh Allen is so liked, the NFL would want him to win this game. Buffalo is rolling and is about to hit a tough part of their schedule, but they did just have a bye week. I like Sean McDermott off a bye against a young quarterback either way.