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Winner 12-5 +500

Looked like this was going down in flames but GB made a game of it late. The Packers had opportunities to score in the first half and went for it on 4th down. I'll give you two scenarios which was the difference. GB went for it on 4th down instead of kicking an easy FG. Then MN missed a FG right at half time to have GB offside and you got it, they made the FG 5 yards closer. That's 3 points on each side of the ledger that made the difference.

Bottom line a win is a win is a win!

Going into tonight's MNF the favorites went 14-1 SU 12-3 ATS

I'm still MF SF from the week prior............. we shall see what transpires with the unpredictable week 18. I look to close the regular season on a continued hot streak!

In closing, I wonder if anyone reads these weekly, plays these or frankly don't give a shit. No likes, no comments, very little to no interaction. It's no fun not to have interaction.

Well here we are week 18 of the regular season of the NFL.

Always a fun week to try to handicap the games, some meaningful, most not. So you get a hybrid of regular season play and exhibition of sorts. There's a lot of money on the line for several players including a whopping 6 million for Geno Smith. He has 3 separate $2 million dollar incentives in play for the final week. I think he has something to play for!

With it being week 18, I honed in on games that had some kind of meaning to playoffs whether it be seeding or just holding on to hope to make it.

CIN +7.5 - I've been riding the hot hand and while they are a long shot to make it, anything is possible. I don't think KC lies down for DEN. KC +20.5 very intriguing but not used. CIN will look to atone for a loss prior in the season and if BAL does as expected earlier in the day, I think we see the CIN line go way higher than -2.5 as PIT will rest players, they won't have anything truly to play for.

ATL +2.5 - Do you think they lose to CAR to end the season. Granted they need a miracle to see TB lose to NO but I think the home squad will give an A game effort regardless.

MN +13 - Seeing DET -3 tells me the oddsmakers see this as a PK em on a neutral field or at the worst DET -1 to MN -1. All the injuires on the DET D is going to be the difference here. I like MN +3 why wouldn't I like them at +13?

Grab this early, don't wait as it won't be there. When BAL jumps out to their big lead, the CIN line should go up and +7.5 is great value.

After week 7 I stood at a miserable 3-4 -220 and from that point on I've gone 9-1 +720 and that doesn't even include the missing post which was a winner.

Looking to close out the regular season a winner. I hope that you've enjoyed the read, made some money, got a few laughs and maybe perhaps learned something.

Enjoy week 18 and may all your teasers be winners!

Not much to say here except what a disappointing finish. ATL with everything to play for in back to back weeks loses in OT and never sees the ball in either OT. Tough way to end your season and cost us this wager.

12-6 +380

Here we go the 2024-2025 NFL Playoffs...............

Obviously the amount of games is very limited and I'll be looking for what I feel is extreme value to make the play worthwhile.

I feel like the Ohio State Buckeyes after losing to Michigan after losing in week 18 and I have more to prove............

HOU +13 - In a game the total has dropped from 44 to 41.5 this would lead you to believe that points will be an ultimate premium. A lot of metrics go against HOU here but the Chargers beat the following teams by 13 points or more this past season: CAR, NO, CLV, NEP and LVR What do all of these teams have in common? They are all super bad football teams.

Who did HOU lose to by more than 13 this season: MN and BAL. What do those teams have in common? They are in the playoffs and really damn good teams.

Do you place the LAC in the level of MN and BAL or more towards the other 5 teams? I would put them closer to the bad 5 teams than I would to the two teams listed. I'm not saying they are a bad team but their schedule was super easy. 29 out of 32 toughest. I'll take the 13 and take my chances.

BAL +1/2 - A team playing really well vs a team playing extremely bad. I'll deserve to lose this if BAL loses this game SU.

MN +8 - IN LA or at the now neutral field in AZ, MN is by far the superior team in this game. The only concern I have with this is how MN responds to the ass whipping they took at Detroit a week ago. Will they have the dead cat game or will they respond bigly. In either event I don't think the LAR can beat this team by 9 or more even if spotted a 7-0 lead.

Don't over bet because it's the playoffs, remember there will be games next week and future opportunities.

I'll be pulling for KC to three peat, I have heavy tickets on them from before the start of the season and earlier on when they escaped with wins and people fell in love with BUF, BAL, PHI........

Good luck and I'll meet you at the cashiers cage cashing those tickets!

2/3 of the way home and we wait til Monday night to cap it off.

Sunday playoff games and the money is flowing in late..........

Sharps are hitting

DEN now down to +7.5 from +8.5 earlier this morning.
WAS now down to +2.5 or +3 at heavy juice
PHI moved earlier in the week once Hurts was listed as starting from -3.5 to -5.5 but I'm seeing some sharp money coming in on GB and several high volume shops are down to -5

If I were to look at a 6pt teaser it would be BUF -1.5 with TB +3.5

Good luck today !!

6pt teaser gets home and we have MN +8 going into tonight's final wild card round.

I was e-mailed regarding how to play out the final leg of the teaser. Should I play some on the other side or let it ride?

My thought process is as follows, if I make a bet, I'm confident in it winning and never look to hedge against it. I'll deal with the results win or lose.

That's a great mentality to have on straight bets and even parlays.

When it comes to teasers you typically have a 10 point middle and who wouldn't want to explore this avenue. We saw the bigger favorites do their thing so far but in the FG line that went to 2.5 and back to 3, we saw the dog shine late.

This is a game of intrigue due to the shift in venue and I would guess the crowd will be more towards MN than it will be to LA. The LA teams in the NFL really have no true loyalty to their teams, it's typically the visiting side that is louder and seen.

In AZ specifically around this stadium location there are a lot of winter visitors from MN, WI, Canada, MT, and the Dakotas. They are being given a chance to see the MN team they normally wouldn't be able to get tickets at home.

However with that said Rams season ticket holders bought 25,000 tickets in the first hour of the presale. They have a minimum of 15 busses coming from LA to Glendale.

After the Rams presale, the tickets went on sale to the Cardinals season ticket holders and Rams single game buyers before going up for grabs to the general public. In the two hours tickets were put up 52,000 seats were sold and it will likely be a complete sell out.

Now I'll say this, the Cardinal season ticket holders, many will go, however many will be trying to sell to MN fans in the valley.

It's bad enough the NFL tripled the price of the tickets than what it would've been in LA. I don't care what they say about proceeds if they mention it at all, the NFL is one greedy entity due to it's billionaire owners.

If you must try to middle............ You have MN +8 or at the very least +7.5 depending on when and where you played it. I would take 1/4 unit of your wager and buy LAR to +3 and potentially to +3.5 if possible. Preferably +3.5.

Yes you are going to pay the juice but give yourself a 11.5 to 11 point middle. If MN wins by 3, you can scoop both. If MN wins by 3, then you push if you buy to +3. If LAR wins, then you cut your losses and if MN wins by 4 or more well you insured your profits.

It all depends on how many units you played for. If for only 1 unit, then it is 1/4 of your unit. So if you played to win $100 it would be to win $25.

Currently I'm seeing -2/5 -115 or -120 across the board except an outlier in Heritage which has the line at -1.5 -108

Good Luck no matter if you let it ride or attempt a double win.

When you're wrong, you're wrong but I had a sneaking suspicion the dead cat bounce may have been in order. That's the best the Rams have looked all year and for the second straight week MN looked totally lost.

Can't win them all but the 6pt teaser and potential hedge evened things out.

good year!

Taking a look at the 4 playoff games and NCAA title game for this extended weekend. Inauguration day and NCAA Title game should make for a grand day.

A barometer I like to look at late in the year is Sagarin Ratings. Jeff has been doing this forever and it's a great tool still today.

Let's look at the numbers:

HOU 22.5
KC 24.1 Favored by 8.5 to 9

WAS 21.6
DET 30.8 Favored by 9.5

LAR 23
PHI 29.8 Favored by 6

BAL 29 Favored by 1 to 1.5
BUF 30.2

ND 92.1
OH St 94.5 Favored by 8

I round numbers and don't use 4 digits. That's truly ineffective and doesn't make a difference.

Taking a look at these numbers several things stick out right away. HOU, BUF, ND

A Sagarin teaser would look like HOU +18.5 to +19, BUF +11 to +11.5 and ND +18

That looks pretty appealing.

The newsletter gurus would agree as several are on HOU, BUF. Nearly all of them are on PHI and it's split on WAS/DET and ND/OH St.

Now let's look at it from a rank vs rank

HOU 9
KC 6

WAS 12
DET 1

LAR 7
PHI 4

BAL 2
BUF 3

ND 2
OH St 1

Finally let's look at SOS this will be an eye opener of sorts


HOU 19
KC 23

WAS 32
DET 8

LAR 5
PHI 30

BAL 14
BUF 17

ND 44
OH St 20

Does it surprise you to see WAS had the easiest schedule in the entire NFL? Their schedule certainly won't be #32 next year and there will be regression as they will play a tougher schedule. They will be an automatic bet against for their season win total no matter what it is.

PHI not far behind them at #30, remember that nice long 10 game win streak........ cup cake city...........

Seeing the LAR at #5 and DET at #8 could this be the NFC Championship?

Again an advantage to HOU in SOS and a slight one to BAL but a pretty good margin for OH St

So what do all these numbers have to do with handicapping? EVERYTHING !!!!!!!!!!!!!

You could go blind and just use the Sagarin 10 Pt Teaser and let's face it, it looks pretty tasty, but you have to think for just a moment, HOU in cold temps, KC on rest....... Recipe for blow out is in play, so what do you trust more?

HOU +18 or KC +2 ?

Rather easy choice is KC +2. If you think HOU is winning SU, you aren't playing the spread, you're on the ML. Make sense?

I'm going to go against the grain a little bit here and make this play

KC +2
DET +1
OH St +2

These lines are available at Bovada.......... always shop, a point here, 1/2 point there, makes a world of difference from a win to a push instead of a loss.

I have futures on KC as I mentioned earlier and I also have a lot on Ohio St +350 and beyond from before the season started. I like my chances and we'll see how this all plays out.

Good Luck !

Let's be real unless your a die hard Redskins er Commanders fan, you didn't see a complete beat down taking place. Sure WAS to keep it close, maybe win it late, but a complete beat down. Let's be realistic on that.

I'm just going to keep it simple today no big write up.

LAR +17 - Snow, cold, whatever........ Rams can bottle neck the running game and I just don't see Hurts having a big passing game. I like the Rams +7 why not +17.

BAL +9 - I just think back to that 35-10 beat down earlier in the season and did BUF improve that much or did BAL regress. The market agrees after making BUF the tepid favorite on the opener. A game that I don't think either team pulls away and it's close throughout. I've been wrong before.......hopefully not with this.

OH St +2 - No need to cover, just read a few posts ahead.

Enjoy the games.

Last out was a winner and the Sagarin Teaser was a winner.

Playoffs 2-2 -40
Sagarin 1-0 +100

Only 2 games and of course the Super Bowl so a 10 pt teaser is pretty much out of the mix as I don't typically mess with totals.

Let's take a look at the Sagarin numbers:

7 WAS 23.3 SOS 25
4 PHI 29.9 SOS 26

Line is sitting at PHI -6 which is spot on.

2 BUF 28.2 SOS 15
6 KC 24.9 SOS 21

Current line is KC -1.5 to -2 depending where you shop.

The home squads were given extra points for HF and these are the final numbers. Note that the game that sticks out is BUF as sagarin basically has them 3 to 3.5 favorites and they are an underdog.

The Sagarin play would be on BUF on the ML + whatever

I've mentioned it before I'm wired to KC for the Super Bowl and I've recouped my investments on those tickets during the season riding or fading along the way.

My vision on these games isn't skewed because of it but I can see why people would think it is.

I have a hard time going against something that has worked and continues to work and that's KC beating BUF in the playoffs and winning at home in the playoffs.

I'm going to be on KC ML as it's relatively cheap. I'll be rooting for an upset in PHI. I don't know how well Hurts is going to be wearing a brace and one good hit can change the outcome as I wouldn't trust the backup for PHI. A little sprinkle on the WAS ML and perhaps a parlay of the ML between WAS/KC.........

I will add this final note. If you do like WAS to beat PHI, you should take them on the Super Bowl odds to win as you won't get that number in the SB.

Officially a pass on the teasers and I'll update some thoughts on the games and the pending Super Bowl later.