Farmer's Insurance

What a crazy round. All in all, feel the reads were there and the wind shouldn't factor in as much for tomorrow!

Fades:
- Luke Clanton, -0.81 T2G and +5.04 (!!) SG:T2G isn't sustainable. 9/16 GIR & 6/12 FW is just asking for trouble... he didn't finish his round today (darkness) so we won't see matchups until morning.
- Sahith Theegala, only 50% on GIR/FW + outside top 40 in all SG metrics except putting..+2.78 SG:PUT (4th highest in the field).
- Jake Knapp, verbatim as Theegala and gained +2.31 strokes putting (7th in the field), 7/16 GIR & 6/13 FW so far is really, really bad for a guy who has as much pop as him. He has 2 holes left and I'll be rooting for a par or better finish from him so we can fade R3/R4.

Buys:
- Ludvig Aberg, +1.9 T2G but lost 1.29 on PUT. I'm gonna say his two three-putts were mainly due to the wind and he bounces back tomorrow.
- Andrew Novak, +3.29 (!!) T2G but shot +3. He's been in really poor form heading into this weekend so he's been off my radar.
- Taylor Pendrith, +2.35 SG:T2G (10th) but lost 1.75 SG:PUT. He ranked 8th overall pre-tournament for me, and 13th for putting. I think we see a solid weekend performance from him, last year he shot -4 on the weekend and gained strokes in every category.

Near Misses;
- Taylor Pendrith o Max Greyserman (-120)
- Nearly Anyone o Jake Knapp **I'm hoping to look at what matchups we can get in the morning, looks like play will resume 7:30am PST.
- Lanto Griffin has such a great round but water eventually meets its level and I don't see him keeping up anywhere near his +4.3 SG:T2G numbers. Weighing in pre-tournament values, he still ranks 58th in my model.



Record: R2 goes 1-1, -0.85, leans 3-0. Our FT matchups are now official, and we stand 3-1, +1.19 in all.
Pending:
1 unit : Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-140) dead-heat rules apply.

hornets -5.5

The Trail Blazers have lost six of their last seven night games following a road win.
The Hornets have won four of their last five games against Northwest Division opponents that held a losing record.
The Hornets have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Trail Blazers following a road loss.
The Trail Blazers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back

St Bonaventure +12, I just don’t think VCU is good enough offensively to pull away from a good defensive Bonnies team.

Vegas Golden Knights ML +132

Vegas want to beat Dallas again after they kicked them out of the play offs last season

Memphis Grizzlies -11.5
Pelicans missing key players Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram & Dejounte Murray
Pelicans bottom five in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage while the Grizzlies rank 2nd in the league in points in the paint
Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league averaging 123 ppg and sit top 10 in 3-point percentage
Grizzlies are fifth in the NBA in both offensive (117.7) and defensive efficiency (109.8) and rank 4th in forced turnovers per game
Grizzlies have a 29-13-2 ATS record so far this year, fourth-best against the spread
Pelicans are the worst covering team in the league (7-13 ATS) on the road

PSU under 169

The total has gone under in 8 of the last 9 PSU games on the road and 4 of the last 5 Iowa’s home games against PSU. Good luck

Ohio University -1

Kent St 3-6 SU last 9 at Ohio U plus Ohio U has won 8 home games 6 by Double Digits

Ohio Pk...small small play here, my line came +2 so will likely hit it for half a unit today...GLA!

Purdue -4 108… The Wolverines dropped a game on the road at Minnesota and then they barely held on at home against Northwestern.. Purdue,on the other hand, is coming off a home loss to Ohio State. Not only did the Boilermakers lose the game at home, but they also blew a double-digit lead in the process. Prior to the Ohio State loss, though, Purdue had been dominant — rather quietly taking care of its conference schedule at home or on the road. This is a bounce-back spot for the Boilermakers

Ohio U -1
Ohio is at home and plays well at home and A. J. Clayton has 48.5 FG%

Cleveland Cavs -9.5

A lot of points for a road team to cover but Philly is in shambles. Without Joel Emiid it’s been a tough go. 76ers have lost seven straight. They are coming off a 35 point loss and in those seven losses they averaged a 14 point loss. Now they get a seven loss Cavs team off a loss to Houston. Look for Cleveland to bounce back in a big way.

Cleveland over 228.5. The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia

Purdue -3.5

This play is more of play on Purdue not losing 2 home games in a row. They blew a big lead at home last game vs OSU and I don't see them doing that again today.

Cavs/76ers o228.5 (-110)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are looking for a series sweep over the 76ers. I think the number is too low for this game. Cleveland has an O/U mark of 14-6 to Over as the away team, while Philadelphia has exceeded the number in five of its last six.

Memphis Grizzlies -10.5

Memphis is a great home team 17-5 playing at home. And on the other end, New Orleans is horrendous on the road at 4-16. I'm seeing Morant is a GTD (illness) so hopefully he'll play, or that line will drop. If he doesn't though, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Kennard bring plenty of firepower to carry the load. I'd just rather have the lower line if Morant is out.

Cavs -10.5...Cavs off a loss vs Sixers who are 2-8SU/1-9ATS last 10

Pelicans +10 pelicans have been a little better but i Think this game will be closer what people think take the money

Tennis- Sabalenka -1.5 Sets. It's been a great run for Keys, but Sabalenka is on a different level right now. Both these ladies have similar styles, however Sablaenka just does everything that Keys does but better.

NY Islanders -150 (NHL)

Bet against Philadelphia in away or neutral games against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season.
Philadelphia record since the 2024 season: 2-11 (15%) with an average money line of -123.5. (-11.6 unit$, ROI=-72.2%).
The average score of these games was Flyers 2.1, Opponents 4.7.