1 unit : Aaron Rai ov Ben Griffin (+104) available at BookMaker / (+103) at BetOnline
1 unit : Erik Van Rooyen ov Max McGreevy (-119) available at Pinnacle / (-131) at BookMaker
1 unit : Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-140) available at BetOnline - in event of a tie, dead-heat rules will apply.

I've circled three central themes I'm going to base around:
1) distance/long irons. - last year 9 of the top 12 ranked T25 in driving distance.
2) greens in reg. - 10 of last 13 winners ranked T10.
3) putting (bent/poa mix) - 10 of last 13 winners ranked T10 for putting.

- Rai ranks 18th in the field in Weighted Prox., bigger diff. w/ the long irons (30th v 78th). Second, Rai ranks 20th in GIR (v 45th for Griffin). Rai's SG:OTT ranks 30th in the field (v 99th for Griffin), and excels at narrow fairways (12th) + thick rough (14th) which could prove a distinct advantage this weekend. Third, putting metrics edge Rai especially when I started weighing Poa greens, add in the fact Griffin ranks 148th in the field putting on Poa greens + he's outperformed his metrics over L24 rounds. 3 factors edge Rai and I believe he should be a short fav in this matchup.

- For starters, EVR ranks 93 spots better (30th) than Max (123rd) in my model rankings. Max has missed the cut in the past two events and ranks outside the top 100 in SG:PUT (weighted, Poa & Bent), Long irons (OTT:Thick rough + OTT:Narrow fairways) and driving distance. He actually really excels at scrambling/bogey avoidance which is why his SG:Approach is ranked 12th. I just really think he's going to struggle converting these long Par 4's and WAY overvalued which makes him a good fade candidate. I chose the EVR route b/c he ranks T15 in Weighted SG:T2G, Distance/ Long irons & Weighted prox. EVR lost 1.51 strokes putting last week when he MC at the AMEX. I'm not really concerned bc a) that's a birdie fest where you can't lose with your putter and b) he actually gained 2.74 strokes T2G which will do him wonders this week in tougher conditions. EVR is 24th (80 spots better) in overall weighted scoring meaning he should convert his par chances more often than Max.
**For those w/o Pinny, BookMaker also offers this wager currently at -131 and I would also recommend the -1.5 strokes at -101 as I do believe Max will ultimately miss the cut for the third straight week.

- Aberg ranks 1st in my model and was my first click at 12/1 on Monday (10/1 sill avail at Kambi books under enhanced offerings). Finished 9th at Farmer's last year, already has a T5 in Hawaii this season. Ranks top 5 in the field in; Weighted SG:TOT, SG:T2G, SG: Long + Difficult Scoring, Distance + Long irons (OTT thick rough + OTT narrow fairways), Overall scoring. Dudes a stud. He'll see success striking the ball in the three core themes I've circled. He gained +2.81 SG:PUT in round 4 of the Sentry, if he can maintain half of that momentum I predict he gets in the mix on Saturday and gets the first "signature win" of his career.


Near misses;
- I bet Hideki Matsuyama 'Top Japanese' at -180 and obviously I like Aberg in all these markets (Swedish/Cont. European/Scandinavian) depending how much risk you wanna take on.
- I'm personally betting Doug Ghim ov Harris English -105 at Pinnacle, I'd probably even lay -120 at bookmaker too. Big discrepancies across the board, just some weird market moves on English that I don't understand this week.
- Jaeger has been in great form and I think +100 ov Spaun is a decent shout, although if you have access to 'Top German' at +130 a much better route. Hopefully we'll have a good opportunity round-by-round.
- I really wanted to get behind Finau in some fashion but I just can't trust his putter enough.
- wanted some exposure on Berger but his matchups v Rodgers (-110) and v Smalley (-120) probably pretty fair prices.


I've been betting on golf for two years now. I haven't come across any good services that bet H2H markets so been trying it out myself. I thought I would start posting to see if there's anyone who would bounce ideas off of, and to keep myself more accountable. Starting the season fresh here and hopefully have some fun! YTD 0-0, +0.0u

Sonego ML. Shelton has been great this tournament, but i just have a feeling Sonego will frustrate him. I like the value with Sonego

Jason Day Top 5 +550 He's top 10 in strokes gained to the field (1.7) this course last 4 years
Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 +140 - looks like the back has cleared up, he's FIRE right now!!!
Tony Finau Top 10 +250 this is the tournament that earned him the name Top Ten Tony, well one of them...
Ludvig Aberg Top 10 +130 - 9th last year here and he only gets better.
Taylor Pendreth Top 20 +160 Tied with Tony last year in 9th playing well, should ride nice in 20 with his distance
Beau Hossler Top 30 +130 Home field advantage
Thomas Detry Top 30 +160 he's 20th last year and 37 in 2023 worth a sprinkle

7 leg parlay for $25 pays $48,812.94

Ole Miss Rebels -3.5
Rebels are top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover rate
Aggies 156th nationally in Turn over rate
Aggie offense is 306th nationally in 3-point percentage
Aggie players Phelps & Taylor are the only two scorers averaging double figures for the Aggies
Rebels have six players averaging over nine points per game
Rebels haven't lost a home game all season and have covered in all of their last five games

IPFW ML -110, I just don’t think Oakland has the guns to score with this team, and I think 38.7% from 3 for this IPFW team is good enough to shoot over this weird zone defence that Oakland runs.

Real Madrid -2.75 AH

Easy bet on Madrid here who need a big win , now Mbappe is on fire.

Clemson over 142.5

The total has gone over in 4 of last 5 Syracuse games on the road and 5 of last 6 Clemson games when playing at home against Syracuse. Good luck

St John’s-7…112…earlier this year they beat Xavier by 10…St. John’s is ranked #20 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll and has lost just 3 times this season. They are tied for 1st place in the conference standings and will look to continue their quest for a title with a win here

St. John’s defense should give Xavier major problems. The Musketeers scored just 72 points and shot 22.2 percent from beyond the arc in their last matchup. According to KenPom, the Red Storm’s defense is ranked #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency and #11 in two-point percentage. Xavier is ranked #200 nationally in two-point percentage, so points in the paint may be hard to come by for them inside Madison Square Garden. St. John’s is 12-0 at home this year and has won 5 straight games

TCU over 134.5...seems short, my line came 139 so sizable play today for me, think this gets steamed too so jump on now...GLA.

Columbus Blue Jackets 1P ML
Columbus is ranked second in the league in the 1st period with a record of 22-11-14, and they have been great in the 1st period on the road. Last 3 away games they have won two and pushed one. Huge dog so getting great value. Could even sprinkle a little on them -0.5 1P for extra value.

Phoenix over 218. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn

Golden State +7.5 (NBA)

Bet on Golden State in away or neutral games after having won 2 of their last 3 games.
Golden State record since the 2024 season: 18-5 (78%) ATS with an average line of -1.3. (+12.5 unit$, ROI=49.4%).
The average score of these games was Warriors 118.0, Opponents 111.6.

Nebraska Cornhuskers -6.5

This is a make or break game for Nebraska. They have lost four straight games. Three were on the road but the tough one was their last home game in which Rutgers beat them to snap their plus 20 game home winning streak. USC went to Maryland on Sunday now has to go and play at Nebraska. Look for a focused and aggressive Husker team tonight to get the win going away.

Champions League

AC Milan ML

At home and 2 games left and Milan would look to secure top 8 place in standing against bottom of standing Girona.

Houston +3 -110. I’m taking Houston at home coming off of loss at home to Detroit. Houston will play Cleveland back to back games and I’ll take the home underdog tonight.

St JOHN -7
St John won by 10 when they played at Xavier, now they play at home and should cover

Houston-18
Think better team both sides of ball home team will be to much for utah to handle

Kan st under 141.5 kan st sucks Baylor is the far better team this will be a blowout take the under

gators -11.5

Florida has won 13 of its last 14 night games.
South Carolina has lost each of its last six games against Conference opponents.
South Carolina has lost the first half in 17 of its last 20 games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents