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NFL 2/9/25

Kansas City Chiefs +6.5 & KC Chiefs/Philadelphia Eagles Under 56.5 (-149) for 2 units
Kansas City wins in the 1-6 point range (+295) for 2 units
Kansas City wins by exactly 3 (+850) for 0.5 units

Certainly because it’s the Super Bowl… But I did come full circle and decide to make two more plays. I love the value that the prop for this Kansas City wins by 1 –6, i’m trying to do the exact math on it, but I do believe that in well over half the games they will win in this point range if they win. This can be a field goals sort of game. Also, when you look at the losses that the Eagles have, two of three were by three points or less. That, coupled with Kansas City’s propensity to winning by small margins in close games, at almost 3 to one this feels like decent value. I’m not usually one for prop bets, but I do like the value here. As for the +850, lol, the last two ended that way - why not one more?

Additionally, the tease is just a kudos to how sharp I believe the lines are and I really did end up leaning towards the under a little bit in this game. I’ve looked at some of the Super Bowls and 23–20 really stands out here to me. Once I really started thinking about it and I thought about what was more likely – 33–30 again or 23–20, and that was an easy decision when you think about how good Philadelphia’s defense and run game are. Kansas City‘s front seven also doesn’t get enough credit. If the dynasty ends here, I think it’s more likely than not the Chiefs keep it close. Yes, the Eagles could add a garbage time touchdown running the clock out in the fourth quarter – but, that’s why I avoided the -190 play that had the Eagles at +7 and the total at 57.5.

YTD: 26-15, +2.7 units

0-4 day on the Super Bowl, really killed the YTD Win/Loss record, even if they were props. Only 6.5 units but still. It certainly seems like anything that even remotely resembles gambling on this thread and for Jeff in general does not seem to bode well. Sitting on the sideline and watching really was the play, unless you knew the Chiefs were fraudulent and the Eagles were that real – I did not – so hopefully I can take this all into consideration for next year and really figure out the best strategy. Favorites are not going to be as dominant consistently as they were this year and Las Vegas is probably not going to have a losing December in the NFL

Congrats to the Eagles, they looked amazing and absolutely smoked the Chiefs. Went up 34-0.

*YTD: 26-15, +20.7 units

Good season and good luck all!

NBA 2/24/25

Denver Nuggets NBA Champions +1400 for 4 units

NBA YTD: 0–0-1, Even

So, I haven’t made more than one play on the NBA this season and it was a push. The second play that I will make this season, maybe the last also (until the playoffs at least, but we’ll see), is a pure value play on the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA championship at +1400. Right now, I think they are the most realistic team to come out of the west. Oklahoma City is amazing and they may be at the start of a dynasty, but I remember when Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka were on that same small market team and they couldn’t find a way to get it done.

I think we may be faced with a similar situation this year. The Lakers getting Luka is very exciting and they just beat the Nuggets by 30, which actually only perhaps helps refocus the Nuggets. That game, the Joker even referenced being happy that his European counterpart was finally finding happiness on the court after being traded from Dallas.

I personally believe we are in for a Boston over Denver NBA finals. If anybody else makes the finals other than Boston, I would pick the Nuggets to beat them. So with this in mind, why didn’t I just pick them to win the West? Well, they are only +500 to win the West. I think there are better value odds for them to win the championship. If they made it against Boston, I would definitely think about hedging, if that isn’t already a certainty with the amount of units that I am risking. With futures bets, it’s common to put a small wager on because of the high payout odds, but I decided to use another full wager’s worth myself and will give myself opportunities to hedge later on if Denver makes it deep enough. I would likely not look to hedge anything in the western conference playoffs before the finals though and would just let it ride.

NBA 3/8/25

Boston Celtics -7.5 (-113) for 4 units
LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 226 for 1 unit

I am seeing Boston -7 on scores and odds, seven is actually maybe the fifth most popular score that an NBA team wins by - so I would’ve preferred that hook, but I do not buy half points in basketball - except in rare cases. The only time I’d ever consider it is taking a -5.5 favorite to -5 to get me that push at 5.

It seems with my Nuggets bet and now this play, I’m fading the LeBron Lakers - but that’s not actually the case. I’m fading OKC coming out of the West TBH - but on this specific night, after the Lakers won a very tough battle against the New York Knicks in overtime, I think it’s going to be hard to replicate that same energy against an excellent Boston Celtics team.

My NBA finals prediction on this very day is actually Boston over Denver in the finals. I do realize I will need to figure out a way to hedge my Nuggets play later if that’s what I actually believe will happen. I also have been toying with adding the Lakers future play, they are currently +1200 to win the championship. You may ask… Why not the Celtics? They are +175. Those odds don’t scream a lot of value to me when I can get them around -200 to -220, maybe, in the NBA finals if they get there anyway.

Anyway, back to tonight. How many more YouTube videos on the herd or first things first are we going to have to see talking about how Jayson Tatum is not a superstar? My goodness. Maybe he hasn’t, but if you wanted to give someone a little bit of extra motivation and juice for a random Saturday game in the regular season… That’s it. I can see Tatum having a huge day against a Los Angeles defense that I really don’t think is very good.

And that’s part of it too, if I am to add the Lakers future bet, am I sure there’s value there? I like the Nuggets more than them, they’ve already improved to +1200 as well since I made the play.

But let’s refocus, today I saw that the Celtics were around 37% or something like that on ..com and their favorites and the line is moving in their direction and it’s against a popular/regular Joe will be rooting for team. I saw this and I placed it on Bet the house, this let me take a look at something that in my soul I think I already knew. Indian Cowboy had a seven unit play on the Celtics. We absolutely think of the NBA in very similar ways, he has a much more sustained track record – but there are certain games I look at and I like, and then I wonder if he would also like them. This was one of those situations which just gave me a little more confidence in making this play.

Yes, I know I was planning on taking the NBA season off of individual game bets.. but this one did catch my attention. Also, if they get smoked, the Lakers championship winning odds could drop disproportionately. It’s just a regular season game and they actually look really good. Wish me luck and good luck all!

PS I like the over in this game as well. I looked at the last few times the Lakers got blown out and in almost every situation there was at least 50 points scored, combined, and really a lot of points period. This tells me that the Lakers don’t mind a little stat stuffing after the game has been decided, and they certainly aren’t playing as hard of defense once the game is not in the balance. But generally speaking, I suck at totals, so I didn’t really do as much there. That said - Lakers after sucking wind on Thursday and then traveling East … and fighting with Stephen A.. maybe they are 5% less intense on defense which would make all my thinking potentially correct.

Boston Celtics +175 for 4 units
Los Angeles Lakers +1400 for 3 units

Pending: Denver Nuggets +1400 for 4 units

YTD: 1-1-1, +2.9 units

The Lakers looked good in the first half - to the point where I believed I was on the wrong side of that play. Felt ok ish with a 4 point lead at half though. Even better when Lakers scored 13 in the 3rd. Tatum scored 40 btw. Doncic 34 - got them from down 20 to down 4 in the 4th. FYI 33-33 after the first before a 111-101 Celtics win.

Makes me feel good about the thought of Celtics and/or Lakers winning the chip. I’m looking long and hard at Boston +175 and LA +1200 (if LeBron’s groin injury isn’t too bad). Might find better odds in the near future with the LBJ injury. Buy the dip? Yes indeed. Odds dropped after the injury. Got them at +1400 bc LeBron is out. I had most of this written up before I made the play. I like them and LeBron/Luka are shiny, you never know - LBJ is superhuman like Tom Brady. Still like the Nuggets a little bit more though heads up.

What doesn’t make me feel great about my OKC fade is the 127-100 ish smackdown they put on the Nuggets Sunday when they were tied ish in the 3rd. Still can’t trust the young OKC in the playoffs yet - it just doesn’t sound right. What does make me feel better is the 140-127 Nuggets win when they ran it back Monday.

When I think about my prediction of Boston over Denver in the NBA Finals, I feel even stronger about that after seeing Tatum drop 40 after a week of being in the spotlight for being told he’s good but not quite good enough. You know what’s pretty good? Two championships in a row. I look at the NBA and I don’t trust the depth. It’s so easy to get hypnotized by the field, there’s so many good teams, but when you break them apart – do you have the cheerleader effect? Something that looks good in a group, but individually may not be as strong. I’m not ready to say that the Cleveland Cavaliers can win a championship without the bus player in the world, I realize they have a damn deep team, same with the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC would be the youngest team to even make the finals. I’ve generally been the kind of sports bettor that is right until I’m not right. In the NFL, I use those teasers, and in the NBA I’m probably never going to be the first to pick that upstart championship team who upset the rest of the NBA. I picked the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

Then I look at the rest of the NBA: Memphis, Houston, Knicks, Milwaukee actually has some championship pedigree with Lillard – the rest of the team around them is just so lousy, and the Warriors… You can never count them out, but I don’t realistically think they are a championship contender anymore. They can make some noise, but Curry seems to have aged quicker than LeBron even.

As for adding the Lakers to the mix, LeBron and Lucca look really good. They beat some really good teams and they are working through it. If they figure it out, I certainly think they will get a 50-50 whistle against the Thunder in a game 6 or 7. As for my execution, as of right now, if Boston wins the championship, I’d push – and if Denver or Los Angeles wins, I will be in very good position. I anticipate hedging potentially in the conference finals or NBA finals, if a reasonable opportunity presents itself. Also, if it is Boston against one of these two teams, I will probably be laying more lumber on Boston -200 to -240 for the series.

NBA 4/11/2025

Denver Live ML -141 for 1 unit

YTD: 2-1-1, +3.9 units

Three pending futures on Boston, Lakers, and Denver. I still like the Boston, one a lot as a hedge, I strongly believe they get out of the East. I’m also really glad I added the Lakers bet. Denver from before they fired their coach… still dig Joker’s championship pedigree, but it’ll be tough. Gun to my head, I’d probably pick Lakers over Celtics today.. as crazy as that call sounds. Like the value I have though. Clippers being hot scares me and OKC won a lot more than expected, even from when I placed those futures bets. Time to figure out if NBA futures can work for me.. I would’ve gone 1-3 in NFL win totals preseason last year.. but I like that this is more like trading a stock and finding value.

NBA 4/18/25

LA Lakers & NY Knicks 1st Round Series (-110) for 4 units

Knick beat up on the East other than Cle & Boston.. Cade isn’t quite there yet, great step forward this season.. and Lakers aren’t going home in the first round, imo.

I like them A LOT to win at least one of their first two home games if you’re a sequence better or don’t mind laying lumber.

*them being the Lakers. I don’t believe there’s any way Minnesota walks into LA and wins 2 in a row with LA’s home record.

PS. Watching the Nuggets vs Clips first bit, hopefully Denver can hold home court and then you may see me playing LA at their home court. Them winning at least one in games 3/4 is extremely likely imo, they could even take both with that home record. Would love to see Denver win first two, then I’d bet Clips to win by a bit in game 3, then I just like my chances. If Clips have ridiculously long odds when down 0-2, I could see myself betting a unit on the hedge (I do still have Den for the chip). I don’t see there being much value when they play OKC, so I’d probably watch that series and root for the Nuggets (and hopefully Lakers on the other side).

NBA 4/19

NY Knicks Live -2 & LA Lakers ML (+190) for 1 unit

NBA 4/19

LA Lakers ML -195 for 1 unit

Also pending:
LAL ML & NYK Live -2 for 1
NYK & LAL Series’s for 4
BOS & DEN to win chip for 4, LAP for 3

YTD: 2-3-1, +0.95 units

Knicks looked fantastic in the second half, fourth quarter particularly and won the first leg of that parlay relatively easily. Also helps my series’s parlay. NY went on a 21-0 run in the 4th.

Minny just straight up bodied the Lakers in the second and to start the third, going up 22. Lakers were up 7 after first for dang sake. This one has me a little nervous. When I felt really good about Lakers winning a home game, I didn’t have them down like 28-6 in the 2nd quarter on my bingo card even being possible. Has everything kinda nervous here in LA and for my pending parlay and future. They lost by like 25 ish.

Updates after games 1/2 in series’s… Lakers won that second game by 9, covering the 6 pt spread too. Got shy but should’ve stuck to my convictions. Knicks blew game 2, 1-1 there, and we have a series.. Nugs lost game 2 in a classic 1-1 there, and Bos up 1-0 as double digit chalks in game 2. Watching and seeing for a bit here.

Great stuff brother!

Thank you Chase! Appreciate you and good luck!

NBA 4/30/25

Houston -4 for 2 units
LA Lakers -5 (-122)* for 2 units

*One should never buy hooks (half points), I only do when taking a NBA favorite from -5.5 to -5. I try to avoid it in the NFL (I do combine adjusted lines for teases/parlays) but there’s really not any other place to buy a hook in NBA. I think one should just eat the L the rare situations it comes up.

Two analyses here - first, Lakers.

If you read bet the house - you’ll see I wrote this..

“The Lakers this evening. I know no one likes to lay -230, but I am somewhere in between laying the money line and sucking it up at -5.5. I like both plays, you’ll probably see a post for the unfair advantage picking something – but only one or two units I think. If you’ve read my posts, you know I’m a little bit of a conspiracy theorist when it comes to the NBA… Sports in general really… But how can the Lakers lose this game five? Especially after the league missed a call in Minnesota, I don’t think LeBron and Luka get bounced not just by the Timberwolves, but by the refs? Point being, I think they may get a call or too early which sets the tone. I like the Lakers at home. I’m not sure if they can come all the way back and win the series anymore, but I like them to at least extend it. And when they do, assuming it’s not on a 50% plus shooting effort… I may consider playing them in game six as well. Not that there is any reason to believe right now the Lakers will go into Minnesota and win the game… But for tonight, Lakers, and a very determined LeBron and Luka.”

So I landed on -5. I *believe* 5 is the most common difference in NBA games (down 1, foul twice; or down 3 and one last foul). I think Lakers win this one in a comfortable 6-15 range. -230 is too much lumber and it doesn’t align with my analysis. Frankly, Minnesota has been better in the close games and if this one has to be down to the final shot, then my goodness - I handicapped it wrong anyway. And I’ll just be happy my series parlay and future for them to win the championship is still alive.

Then the Rockets. Look at the Game 1 box score. That’s nerves and feeling outmatched - that is statistically hard to match. 11 more shots, 39.1% from field, 20.7% from 3? They only lost by 10? Those are get blown the heck out stats. Houston was also good at home this year. They extend the series and I think Warriors win in six but may not cover a -5 type spread. PS - in 2022, the Dubs got beat by Memphis in game 5 134-95 and GS went on the clinch it in six en route to becoming champs. I don’t think they get past the next round if it’s LA, but first round reminds me of that series. Did the same type of thing in game 6 last year against Sacramento before winning it in 7. Why -4 over -167 ML, with that not as bad a split as the Lakers -5.5 or -230 ML? Bc tbh I think if it’s that close, GS may just win it tonight. I believe it’ll be Rockets by 10 tonight.

Do I love betting both chalks .. aka 100% of games on the board betting the favorite and laying the lumber..? No. No, I don’t. But situationally, this is what I think happens in both cases and the lumber being laid aligns value wise with, my opinion, the best execution of the plays. Plus ..com has only 48% on LA, which I prefer to fade the public.. and try to avoid 65%+’s all together.. and 56% on Houston. This is more of a box score deep dive play for me. This is going to be a young Houston’s best punch at home and GS may .. remember that they can win it in game 6 or game 7. I would consider betting GS in game 7 as dogs or a near pick, by the way, at this point and how the series has gone.

YTD: 3-6-1, -6.89 units

Pending:
Denver Nuggets to win title +1400 for 4 units
Boston Celtics to win title +175 for 4 units

Idk about those series bets dude. Maybe leave em… haven’t seemed to have been your thing. Game bets perhaps? LA was a suck you in -195 ish series favorite on their own. Just bc the narrative is juicy doesn’t mean the players know that. Minnesota stomped them 4-1, nothing rigged here - they bodied LA. Luka looked sloppy at the end. Excited for them next season though.

Not so sure about the futures either. There was better value to be had at times w Denver, like after them firing their coach.. my LA play just got bounced and Boston was my hedge. Boston needs to win the ring (push) or Denver get by the OKC juggernaut for this strategy to potentially find value.

As for the plays tonight, pegged that Rockets game perfectly… they won by 15. Warriors got smoked early and starters even sat the 4th, but wow did I miss the mark on the Lakers. Drank the kool aid, caught up in the hype - the numbers when I dug in didn’t support a LeBron win.. but I didn’t want to believe it. If you read my analyses, they’re so different in nature also. Narrative and stats both play a part but when your thesis is way off..

NBA 5/3/25

Golden State Warriors -5 (-121)* for 3 units

*same -5.5 to -5 hook logic as the Lakers. Also the same idea that there isn’t enough value to do the ML at -220 ish and instead, I’m playing ATS.

If you’ve been following my posts, you probably aren’t surprised to see this play. For the record, after GS got clobbered by Sacramento in game 6 in 2023, they won in Sac by 20 and Steph dropped 50. In game 6 against Memphis in May 2022, they won by 14 but it was close. They didn’t just run away with it - but they smelled blood and smoked them in the 4th quarter.

Now to 2025… when you analyze the box scores, there’s nothing to show that Rockets were actually the better team but XYZ… nope. Warriors had more shots in their home games and it took 47% shooting from 3 for the rockets to be able to lose by 3, 109-106. That’s a hard percentage to replicate.

I believe Golden State moves on and honestly, I just don’t know what to make of Minnesota. They beat the Lakers, were better than them, and it wasn’t a fluke at all.

Speaking of other tough final games.. Clippers/Nuggets, eh? Hoping for a Joker classic myself bc I have the Denver future still pending. Not quite done analyzing game 7, but if I had to today - I’d say Denver. After Clips went up 2-1 I thought they had it. Even 1-0. But that Aaron Gordon dunk was too much. Idk if LAC is mentally tough enough to win this game 7. Denver will be bringing it all.

NBA 5/3/25

Denver ML -122 for 4 units

YTD: 3-7-1, -10.52 units

Betting on the best player in the world (Jokic) in game 7 at home when his Robin (Murray) has finally started being his playoff form.. I’m here for it. I’ll take them in a dogfight at home over Harden and Kawaii (even tho he’s excellent). This one could be a battle. Numbers and box scores of game 1 & 2 show me Nuggets were in decent position in both. Plus I still have them for the championship +1400.. could they escape here and give a young Thunder a run for their money? Hopefully! That would be cool.

Rockets shot better than I expected last night, was wrong there. Still would lean GS in game 7 in Houston.. but we shall see. Wild playoffs this year. Maybe not, maybe I’m just thrown off bc I thought Lakers were going further.

NBA 5/4/25

GS Warriors +3 (-122) for 4 units

YTD: 4-7-1, -6.52 units

Just noticed I had the date wrong on my last post for the Dubs, it should’ve said 5/2 not 5/3/25.

I have Steph and Draymond’s defense in game 7. A great Jimmy game too perhaps. This became a two game series imo and this is where I think some have it wrong. Rockets/Wolves I don’t think is right yet. The dubs out too? After the Lakers? Idk man. Am I getting sucked into the narrative again with a less talented team? Ant is already trash talking Dray. I don’t think so. 2.5 is begging folks to take the Rockets at home and with 64% on their side on a common sports betting site, that’s a gut check to remind me I’m on the side of the majority/public fade. Even with the Golden State name. Don’t mind the -122 vig and plus 3 *eyes* lol. Paying for more viewing experience w that hook not a good handicapping move.

Ok.. so, game 1 rockets were shy but way outshot and outrebounded. Butler hurt in game 2, Rockets rolled. 3 & 4, Warriors outshot and it took crazy shooting to be close in 4.. 5 was a throwaway up 54-24 they quit which only makes me think they’ll be ready.. and I had Houston in that game, nice. I thought Dubs would bounce back in 6, but the Rockets shot great, 40% from 3. VanFleet went 6/9 for 29 all in, hard numbers to replicate. Steph only shot 9-23, Hield 0-4, and Butler 1-6 from deep. Gotta hope the numbers return to the mean. GS was same record home/away this year.. just sayin! Houston was better at home but not like so so much better.

Why spread and not a little extra sugar for +118 ish if I like the Dubs here? Bc I like to have more W possibilities.. I tease in the NFL and I’m glad I established buying rules on hooks (even though both -5.5’s.. down to -5 just cost me more vig in two L’s my last 2), or I may want to go crazy and get them as bigger dogs. We’ll take some last second shot cushion with the +3 if it’s close.