I'm back for the 2025-26 football season and looking to help you smash the books once again this year with some football teasers.
I started off slow last year but reeled off several winning weeks in a row to end way ahead last year and this year looking to get off to a big start.
So with no further ado let's get to Week 1 of the NFL............
First Play is a three team ten point teaser which you lay -130. My plays will be always either to win a unit or a unit to win x+
I literally just made the below play and will give some thoughts behind it next to the team.
9/7/25 1:00 PM NFL Lines Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins +11 (+1) --- QB Edge, WR Edge, first game on the road shouldn't prove to be a distraction as it would if this were the 7th or 8th game of the year. You have a healthy Miami team and I pushed it through key numbers.
9/7/25 1:00 PM NFL Lines Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders +12.5 (+2.5) -- Geno Smith vs Drake Maye advantage LV. Coaching advantage LV. Like Miami, first game on the road isn't that much of a distraction. Will be interested to see how Jeanty handles the NFL. I can't see a scenario where NE wins by double digits here. I think they are being given too much credit with that lofty 8.5 Win total this year.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (-6.5) -- Typically don't like crossing over but let's face it. Murray vs Rattler. Just like the first two games, the road shouldn't be an issue. I was going to use AZ as my Circa Survivor pick but even though NO is going to be a go against team all season, it is the Cardinals. I trust them more as dogs as I do favorites and if by some off chance NO wins, it's going to be a late FG..... This does have the potential to be a 10+ win by AZ but I played it safe taking north of a FG.
I mentioned Circa Survivor, I might as well cover that here as well. For week 1 from the get go, I shaded Denver as the pick. As we got closer, I entertained, PHI and AZ. I had an uneasy feeling about PHI in a division game, they are always close and it was just that. I mentioned about AZ even though I used them in the teaser. I ended back on Denver. I only had them listed for week 16 and wouldn't use them anywhere else, so week 1 we ride with the Broncos.
One thing I like in these kind of topics is interaction, it's not meant for your picks, but to cheer on the picks here and give props when due and shade when deserved........
Let's have a big season and get it started off on a winning note!
What I expected to happen in the Raiders game went according to plan. Sure at one point they were behind but experience and coaching did what I expected. Jeanty didn't have the breakout game but had the ball a lot 19 carries for only 38 but more importantly he had a TD. If you look at the stats TOP was 30 seconds advantage to NE. They ran 6 more plays but had 53 less overall total yards. Both teams penalized 9 times and each had 1 turnover. It came down to the small things and that's how the Raiders won this SU!
Arizona in my eyes deserved to lose. I will say NO backers on the spread 6.5 were screwed to some extent. Arizona up 20-10 attempts a FG but it was blocked. Instead of the score going to 23-10 it stayed 20-10. New Orleans came down and rather than having to go for a TD down 23-10 they settled for a FG at the Arizona 5 to make it what the final ended up 20-13.
NO had more first downs, ran more plays, had more total yards, had more passing yards, were only out rushed by 39 yards. Had 4 more penalties (13) and more penalty yards (35) than Arizona. Neither team had a turnover. All of this took place with NO having the ball over 7.5 minutes less.
Did I mention AZ had one sack in the game. NO had FIVE, yes FIVE !!!!
If I showed you stats and didn't tell you which team was which, I'd think the majority would think NO won or at least covered.
I mentioned how I thought AZ had the huge QB edge and on paper before the game there was no doubt about it, however I was impressed with Rattler and he out played Murray.
This is how close it was........ Arizona escaped..........
Well now it's time to unload..........
If you watched the Miami game, you had to be asking yourself this simple question.......... Why isn't Miami prepared? This team looked like they just took the field for the first time ever. They made Daniel Jones look like HOF QB. Jones was 22/29 for 272 yards and 1 TD pass.
What did Tua do? Oh yes he had 1 TD pass, it was 30-0 when he had it. He was 14 of 23 with 2 interceptions and a fumble. He threw for a grand total of 114 yards. 114 yards! Indy rushed for 156 yards.......
Total yards 418-211 in favor of Indy. Indy ran 70 plays to only 46 for Miami. They had the ball for nearly 39 minutes of the game. Each team had the ball a total of only 7 possessions....... yes you read that right 7 which is ultra below a normal average.
There were too many errors, too many little things missed that added up huge for Indy. They couldn't cover receivers, they couldn't tackle, they looked so out of sorts, I put this all on the coach. Yes players make the plays or don't make them, but this was such a bad overall performance all around. Losing 33-8 isn't a game with effort put into it and that starts with the coach. He should feel on the hot seat already, he hasn't proven to be the right guy for Miami or anyone for that fact. I don't say this because they cost us the win, it was literally a disaster.
9/14/25 1:02 PM NFL Lines New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Spread Miami Dolphins +8.5 (-1.5) 9/14/25 1:02 PM NFL Lines Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Spread Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-11.5) 9/14/25 4:25 PM NFL Lines Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs Spread Kansas City Chiefs +11 (+1)
I'm going back to the well with the Dolphins and this is more of a play against New England being able to A. Win the game and B if they do to win by nearly double digits on the road. New England is a team that I believe is way over valued. To see them projected over 8.5 wins for this season to me is someone that smoked took much green leaf when setting that ridiculous number. The coach is improved from the last, but the roster that's another story. Maybe in a few seasons they will be what people think they'll be this season. I'm just not sold and again like last week, Miami has the better QB and WR core, it's just a matter of them showing up especially at the QB position. In Tua we trust perhaps for the last time.
Baltimore this is an easy one. They outclass Cleveland at every level from the field to the front office. Nothing anyone can tell me would change my mind and neither should it change yours. 11.5 in a division match up is a big number but it's that big for a reason and Cleveland didn't beat a Bengals team held to 7 yards in the second half last week. That won't happen today and Baltimore will be victorious.
KC +11 -- I'm not saying that they didn't look bad in Brazil because they did. That was an odd situation to open the season and they are a different animal at home. Am I looking for revenge from the Super Bowl........ NO......... that was last season and this year is a completely different one. I do see a vast improvement in game play and game management from KC this go round. They get a few days of extra rest and being at home, I just don't see a blow out loss at home. That's what it will take to not cover with +11.
Thanks for reading and if tailing, let's make that $$$$...............
Miami once again fell behind early 12-0 but lead 27-23 in the fourth but gave up a KO Return for TD and a FG and lost 33-27. I didn't think NE would win in Miami and they did but I also believed if they did win they wouldn't cover 8.5 and they didn't. There really needs to be a long look at the MIA organization because it's broken. Once again MIA made the opposing QB look like an MVP and in Tua we don't trust. It's going to be a long season in Miami they will easily be double digit dogs at BUF on Thursday night. Let me pencil in MIA as 0-3 and out of the playoff race. Coach to get fired and they will draft a QB next draft. They really have no choice.
Baltimore did exactly what I thought they would do.
KC had moments of hope the dagger was the INT off of Kelce hands in the end zone. KC is 0-2 and that doesn't bode well for any team. Fortunately for them they are one of the rare teams that can turn it around. They get to go on the road to play an improved NYG team. It won't be easy.
Survivor pick in AZ did just that blowing a 27-9 lead and nearly lost the game SU.
At one point on the Colts broadcast they gave a highlight of AZ going up 27-9 and the announcer said AZ is one of those under the radar teams. I laughed and thought, you do realize they played NO/CAR. Nearly every team with a pulse would likely go 2-0 with that opener. They get another wounded team in SF next week. Talk about catching breaks but SF won't be an easy place for AZ to win at.
I'm not done yet........... I had a plan going into today and part 1 came through so now it's time to go do part 2.
9/14/25 8:25 PM NFL Lines Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Spread Atlanta Falcons +13 (+3) 9/15/25 7:00 PM NFL Lines Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Spread Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5 (+2.5) 9/15/25 10:00 PM NFL Lines Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Spread Las Vegas Raiders +13.5 (+3.5)
As long as the first play won, I was coming back with this play. Let me break it down a little....
ATL +13 While MN rallied to beat CHI last week, I just can't see JJM and MN winning by 14 in this one. I follow Penix and love his never ending desire to win. He is going to end up being a very special QB. ATL is one of my Bad Man plays at +3.5 and I think they can win SU so why wouldn't I like them at +13.
TB +12.5 This goes against my Bad Man play of HOU -2.5 but I see a game where it's close throughout and HOU pulls it out late. They are not 13 better than TB. As long as Baker doesn't have silly TO they easily cover and I'd hate to see it but win SU. We shall see how this plays out.
LVR +13.5 - These teams hate one another and play historically close games. This one should be no different. I left LVR +3.5 off my Bad Man card but they were my 6th pick. I wouldn't be too surprised to see an upset here.
Time is short so no big write ups like earlier.
See you at the cashier cage and let's get that $$$$.........
Atlanta Falcons +13 (+3) 9/15/25 7:00 PM NFL Lines Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Spread Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5 (+2.5) 9/15/25 10:00 PM NFL Lines Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Spread Las Vegas Raiders +13.5 (+3.5)
The play above was a winner with only Las Vegas needing the points and other two teams won SU.
I said:
ATL is one of my Bad Man plays at +3.5 and I think they can win SU so why wouldn't I like them at +13.5 As long as Baker doesn't have silly TO they easily cover and I'd hate to see it but win SU. LVR +13.5 - These teams hate one another and play historically close games.
The first two statements were spot on. The Raiders played out of sync but the Chargers couldn't complete a big enough knock out to beat us.
So for those of you of little faith after week one that jumped off the train and never said a word then and certainly didn't say a word in week 2. Hell NO ONE said a word to me in week 2 of which is irritating because I spend the time to make you $ and I hear wait............ CRICKETS.
No need for me to say any more as it falls on deaf ears.................
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-11.5) Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams +13.5 (+3.5) Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals +12.5 (+2.5)
Looking to make it a trifecta of winners in a row.............
Normally don't give too much thought to Thursday games because you have to tie up plays for a few days and things can happen between now and then.
I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get a leg up however.
If the Bills don't beat Miami by 2 or more, let's face it, I deserve to lose. I'm advocating for the Miami coach to be fired and for them to draft a QB in the first round next year and I'm not a MIA fan. This team has talent but is grossly incompetent and it starts with ownership all the way down to the QB. Allen and company should put a spanking on these clowns. I posted an interesting trend set in the Statistical Advantage thread, go check it out.
The Rams will provide more of a test to PHI than KC did because they actually have an offensive line that can protect the QB. They have something to prove at the same time and while PHI is tough at home and playing really well to start the season, do you think they blow out the Rams by 14 or more? I don't and I'm not saying the Rams will win SU but I'm thinking this can go deep into the fourth undecided who the winner will be. I might be 100% wrong on that but I'm seeing a tight game.
Cardinals - This will be interesting to see how they fare within the division. They typically play SF tight and there hasn't been a lot of blowout type games in the series as of late. A two TD +.5 point start I'll take within the NFC West. It is tightly competitive and these teams know each other very very well.
Cliff notes version due to game time in a few hours..........
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-11.5) Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams +13.5 (+3.5) Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals +12.5 (+2.5)
Winner
Record 3-1 +170
Let's look back at key comments made.......... Do you think they blow out the Rams by 14 or more? I don't and I'm not saying the Rams will win SU but I'm thinking this can go deep into the fourth undecided who the winner will be. I might be 100% wrong on that but I'm seeing a tight game.
Exactly what took place and the Rams should've won the game SU
They typically play SF tight and there hasn't been a lot of blowout type games in the series as of late. A two TD +.5 point start I'll take within the NFC West. It is tightly competitive and these teams know each other very very well.
Another game that went to the final play of the game. AZ should have never lost this game.
No need to talk about Buffalo from Thursday night, they did what needed to be done and that's win.
I'll say this, I hate and I mean absolutely hate doing a thread like this with ZERO interaction. It's why I and many others don't do it. If you have your head stuck up the paid professionals asses all the time, you miss out on a topic like this or L10's picks not to mention the countless others that are posting in individual sport topics and post winners and give great insight into the games.
I mean it's simple for me, I can easily just stop and keep on chugging on my own as I'm now without posting. It will save me time and energy.
I'm not looking for ass kissing, never have, never will but it's good to be acknowledged and recognized for not only the effort but the winners!
To think I don't charge for this.......... that gives me an idea......... hmmmmm........
9/28/25 10:02 AM NFL Lines Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions Spread Detroit Lions 0 (-10) 9/28/25 1:05 PM NFL Lines Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams Spread Indianapolis Colts +13.5 (+3.5) 9/28/25 1:25 PM NFL Lines Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Spread Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+2.5)
I looked at many different options for this week and normally I would post on Sunday but I think it's a good idea to lock this in early.
Detroit PK - All you need is a win by the Lions at home vs the Browns. Yes, I'm fully aware of what they did at HOME vs the Packers but let's address that for a moment. GB had the ball over 8.5 more minutes, they killed themselves with untimely penalties, 14 to be exact for 75 yards. Do you think if the Browns put up the same amount of total yards (221) at Detroit they stand a chance to win SU? GB had their bad game of the early season and they allowed CLV to hang around and they deserved to lose. It wasn't that CLV went crazy and scored 40 points, they had 13 all in the fourth qtr. I wouldn't even touch them at +20 as tempting as it sounds......... Detroit makes the most sense all around here.
IND +13.5.... Yes IND travels out west for a road game, but if you've ever paid attention to the crowds at LAC/LAR games, a huge amount is for the road team and not a big HF advantage. This game is basically a toss up between what I think are two even teams. A true neutral field has them at PK or -1 either way. Let's add into the devastating way LAR lost. Up 26-7 and they gave up 26 points in a row to lose 33-26. What makes this worse is they should've won. That blocked FG/Scoop and Score is really major blow to the psyche of the team. There will be a lingering effect. It's typically always negative and rarely positive.
Daniel Jones I'll give him credit, he has played like an MVP or at least Comeback Player of the Year, maybe both........ If Taylor can make his way to find room to run, I can see IND winning SU. I'll gladly take the 13.5 that will likely drop by Sunday.
KC +12.5 - Is BAL 13 points better than KC on the road? If your answer is NO, then this is an easy one. It's hard to fathom one of these teams will be 1-3 after this game barring a tie. Who needs the game more? KC does. BAL has a much easier path to win the AFC North than KC to win the AFC West right now. Unless something out of the norm happens, this will be a tight game in the 4th quarter. It might be even a last possession type game. These teams do not blow each other out and I'll take Mahomes and company plus the generous 12.5.........
Solid. I agree about the Browns I had the Browns +7.5 and quit watching the game as it looked to be ending at 10-0 came back to see they won the game somehow. That was a fluke. I think this could also be a 3 team parley play for me, lions ML only and the other 2 with the points and Possibly ML on those 2 as well especially KC. Chiefs currently paying even money on +2.5 (possibly buy to 3 for FG insurance) . Detroit ML and the other 2 with points pays out +345...and it wouldn't really be all that much of a shocker to see the colts and KC win outright as well. I'm sure the Rams will be in beast mode bounce back after that huge let down ending but I'm not sure they are going to beat the Colts regardless.
CHA CHING!!! Great Job FREAK as another winner cashes the ticket on these teasers. EZ EZ EZ. Lions did the 10 number without it, KC did the 2.5 number without it, the Colts were right there the whole way. It takes a little more risk having to have 3 teams happen for a win and just 1 no show blows the whole thing. All teams showed up and played well and made this look like a pure gift.
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