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Season Record 6-3 +240 Streak Lose 1

6 Point Teaser

Pittsburgh Steelers +9 (-115)
New England Patriots -1 (-105)
Atlanta Falcons -1 (-110)

Time for a review

ATL -1 if they can't beat MIA at home I deserve to lose. As for Atlanta, they just need to run the ball, make a few plays downfield and keep Penix from getting crunched. He got beat up pretty good in the last game and I wonder where his mental state is. He never had that happen in NCAA and up until last game, not in the NFL.

Well I guess we deserved to lose. Forget Penix, forget Cousins, the game plan put forth in this game by ATL was just in a word atrocious. I don't know if they felt if they just showed up they were winning or what the thought process was here. Now I'll give MIA credit, they played the nearly perfect game. The best game they have played all season and it took 8 weeks to show up.

Miami had 16 more plays and yet ATL had one more drive. MIA 141 yards rushing, say what? ATL only 45 yards say what? Atlanta had a total of 49 plays in the game and 31 of them were passes. They started passing and just kept passing because they had to. If they would have led with smash mouth running with Robinson, it may have been a different outcome. Oddly enough the key play of the game is when Robinson fumbled down at the MIA 10 yard line or so as he bounced the ball off his knee while running in the open. Have you ever seen a RB do that? In a way I'm glad ATL lost and I'll talk about that later.


NE -1 - Ok people are all over CLV here. Why? They had 200 yards of offense in their game against the a fore mentioned Dolphins. Gabriel will progress and I just can't see the Browns going into Foxborough and beating the Patriots. Maye should have a field day here. I see them having a big time of possession edge in this game. CLV will be very limited in what they are going to be able to do.

CLV had a total of 213 yards of offense. Maye went 18/24 for 282 yards passing and 3 TD's. NE had the ball nearly 12.5 minutes longer than CLV and only ran 13 more plays. CLV was outscored 29-6 after the first qtr in which CLV led 7-3 at the end of the first. This played out exactly as I thought it would.

PIT +9 - I can't see GB winning by 10 in Blitzburgh and this should be a tightly played game. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see PIT win SU.

16-7 at the half, 19-14 after 3 with Pittsburgh out front. The fourth qtr GB won the game outscoring PIT 21-6 to win by guess what 10!

I don't know what took place in the PIT locker room at halftime but it sure didn't work. They came out of the gate pass, pass, pass and I could probably write it 100 more times. Why they went totally against what was working and their strong suit is beyond me. Rodgers looked like a statue the majority of the time and hell he made Michael Penix look like a natural born running QB and that's impossible to do but Rodgers did it. The PIT defense looked like they had too much to drink at halftime as they couldn't get any pressure on Love who played the role of a surgeon and sliced and diced the PIT defense.

I want to touch upon why I said I'm glad ATL lost early because if we would've got to this leg +9 and up 5 at the end of the third. Would you have thought we could lose? Don't get me wrong we did but let's go to the final PIT score and at the time they were down 16. So if you came into this up 5 getting 9 and all of a sudden your down 16 and losing you have a WTF moment. But let's talk about the TD, it was one, even thought it took replay assist to correct the error by the refs on the field. How would you have liked your money coming down to a 2 point conversion and you see your guy make the catch and you start clapping, woo hooing, cheering or whatever just to see him lose it and it just drop to the ground.

That would have been pure agony in itself. Don't get me wrong, I pride myself on my results here and even I wanted to see him catch it and lose by 8.

9 teaser plays this season and this is the first one where there was more than one loss. The prior two losers only had 1 leg misfire and it was fluky kind of things that cost us. Could you imagine if ATL won and it would've lost like this. Holy smokes, but still it sucks for sure.

Even if we had played a 10 pt teaser, we would've lost but only 1 leg. ATL. This loss sucks but at least it was just 1 unit with no juice.

There will be many more opportunities as we move forward and if you've played every play posted this year, you're ahead and that's the bottom line.

Until next time.................

Let's Make That $$$$

Season Record 6-3 +240

Detroit Lions +1 (-9)
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 (-9.5)

I'm going to keep it really simple this week. We need two teams to just basically win their game in DET and LAC.

I had multiple games I looked at including IND, LVR, GB, BUF, but I chose SF as I can see them going in and just smash mouthing this NYG team. With the loss of their rookie RB, it changes a lot of their offense to an extent. If any team is going to feast on the NYG it should be SF. Look I know SF isn't 100% on D, they don't have to be. I'll take the 60% version against this NYG O. Dart will be running around to safe his hide later today.

No need to over think things and take what's being offered.

Let's Make That $$$$

Bring that $$$$ home Freak! Keepin' it real as you always have.

good luck to us!

Season Record 6-4 +110

Detroit Lions +1 (-9)
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 (-9.5)

Well 2/3 doesn't pay a dime but how bad did the Lions look against a rookie QB that made Goff look like the rookie. Now all the talk is about how MN righted their season and off to the playoffs they go. I see them winning at most 3 more games this season and even that will be a tall task.

The Eagles and Rams are the front runners in the NFC. maybe outside of SF if they can get healthy there's no other challengers. Sorry Packer backers, they aren't winning the NFC. They've been fully exposed and Carolina of all teams gave the road map to beating them.

In the AFC, it's coming down to potentially three or four teams. BUF, KC, DEN. BAL..... no one else has a chance. IND no, PIT no, NE no, HOU, no......................oh you say LAC...... NO

Not much more to say here.........

Season Record 6-4 +110

Denver Broncos +1 (-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles +12 (+2)

Going to try to keep this short and sweet.......

DEN at home, LV on a short week, altitude matters. I'll take my chances with DEN only needing to win.

TB - NE winning at TB by more than a TD, I can't envision it. Yes I go against the grain going through 0, but those rules are antiquated to today's NFL. I never was much a rule follower when it comes to sports wagering.

PHI - Off a much needed bye week. Perhaps GB was looking ahead to this game while losing to CAR last week. Won't matter even if GB wins the game, they aren't blowing out PHI.

This play keeps you invested from first game to last.

I like this play a lot but that doesn't mean for you to go bet crazy. Let me do that!

Good Luck and Let's Make That $$$$

Walking on egg shells to the final game in this teaser lol.....Hope this lands for you tonight. Good grief the Broncos were the scare, Tampa Bay finding there way back in there. NOW....what seemed like the easiest cover in this entire teaser double digits with the Eagles who I think should win outright anyway....I think like you've said before....if you were gonna lose getting it out of the way would be a lot easier. This game tonight in my opinion was the least of all concern. Tampa Bay was the only team I thought might not win but you were getting all the extra points and I still did think they would have won the game as well too as I did not like the Patriots +2 looking at the game originally.

Best of luck tonight! I have a feeling perhaps this game won't be so down to the wire with the spread as the others. I've got the eagles winning outright and a worst case scenario for my numbers I could see the packers winning by 4 points here. I think the Eagles have a better shot of winning by double digits than the Packers.

Season Record 7-4 +210

Denver Broncos +1 (-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles +12 (+2)

Recap

DEN I'll take my chances with DEN only needing to win. And win they just did in a lackluster 10-7 victory. Were they looking ahead to KC this coming week?

TB - NE winning at TB by more than a TD, I can't envision it. Ok this was a nutty one, as I watched the NE long TD run late to put them ahead of +7.5 and then watched Mayfield get it back even later to get the W. After TB went down and scored on the first drive to go up 7-0 this team disappeared especially on key offensive plays and defensive plays. I will admit I haven't given NE their due and I still won't. They've played the easiest schedule in the league and would you believe me if I told you Sagarin had them rated as the 16th best team. http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

PHI - Off a much needed bye week. Won't matter even if GB wins the game, they aren't blowing out PHI. Let's just say this game was ugly. PHI wins the game with only 13 First Downs of which 1 came by penalty. Neither team inspired confidence going forward. There is something seriously wrong going on in GB and for PHI to come out so poorly after a bye week is a cause of concern. However it's the NFL and teams will take a W any way they can. This one was never in doubt at any point and an easy winner for us to finish off this play.

A winner in the books after a brief 2 loss skid and we are still ahead for the season and looking for more. These plays really only get harder from here as some teams appear to have checked out, some are still playing for something even if it's nothing and some are on cruise control.

The NFL isn't the same as it was even five years ago, parity is at a all time high and week to week anything can happen. To have a winning record and plus money on these plays isn't easy.

On to next...........

Let's Make That $$$$

you started with a 10-7 game....you ended with a 10-7 game....

Great teaser Freak. As I stated earlier I do believe from the get go this game tonight especially with a +12 sitting on your side in a game Eagles should win would be the least of your worries....you got through the scare game on Broncos playing down to level.

Season Record 7-4 +210

New England Patriots -3 (-13)
New York Giants +17 (+7)
Detroit Lions +12.5 (+2.5)

Let's cut to the chase:

NE -3 - I'm still not sold on NE as I stated in my previous post, however this week I like the chances of winning by 4 or more at home. Fields hasn't done much in the passing department and I don't see that changing tonight. I haven't looked yet, but I'll be looking to bet the over on his run total. I cashed a lot of tickets with him while in Chicago and tonight he is going to need to use his legs. This is the game that if NE doesn't cover the number, I deserve to lose.

NYG +17 - Yes this is digging deep into the garbage can. A few reasons behind this play, GB hasn't demonstrated to me that they can blow anyone out. Yes I know NYG will be using Winston or Russel but they can still manage the game. Both play loosey goosey at times when passing downfield but I see a bit of a different type offense this week. I'm also riding on the new coach bump. Players will play a little harder for a coach they like and if they want to see him be the next coach they will play their hearts out. I just can't see GB winning by 3+ scores here.

DET +12.5 - This is a role reversal from MNF where we saw the Eagles +2.5 at GB and they won SU. DET has an offense and will score points. Since Campbell took over play calling they've just been an offensive juggernaut and even while PHI is an elite defense, covering 13 is just not something I can see taking place.

This week you get a bonus teaser and I like this one a lot. When I say something like that which isn't often even though I said it last week, the plays hit at a high rate. I'll add that this is the biggest wager on a teaser I've made all year.


Houston Texans 0 (-6)
Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-7.5)

First we get the Texans who just need to win, I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby !!!!! Granted we have Justin Mills and not Shroud which won 26-0 with a big fourth quarter earlier this season. However the Houston defense made life miserable for all facets of the Titans offense. A game Houston must win if they have hopes of the playoffs. The Titans shouldn't score more than 14 in this game barring fluke special teams scores like we saw with the Jets vs Browns last week.

To close it out we get a 425 start for the Ravens to dismantle the Browns. I was talking to someone earlier this week and told them the Ravens are the Eagles of last year. They struggled until their bye week and the rest was history. We are seeing that right now in BAL and I wouldn't be surprised if they won 7 or 8 in a row. They like HOU need this game and while the CLV defense may provide some moments of uneasiness, I don't see the CLV offense doing much of anything as they haven't all season, why would it start here?

You know what you need to do.................

Let's Make That $$$$

Season Record 9-4 +410

Recap

New England Patriots -3 (-13)
New York Giants +17 (+7)
Detroit Lions +12.5 (+2.5)

Winner


NE -3 - I like the chances of winning by 4 or more at home. Fields hasn't done much in the passing department and I don't see that changing tonight. I haven't looked yet, but I'll be looking to bet the over on his run total. I cashed a lot of tickets with him while in Chicago and tonight he is going to need to use his legs.

This was a game in which NE let NYJ hang around. Full line action went anywhere from -12.5 to -13.5 depending on when bet as NE won by 13. If you followed my advice on Fields the number was in the mid 30's and he ran for 67 yards. You were a winner before the first half was over.


NYG +17 - Yes I know NYG will be using Winston or Russel but they can still manage the game. Both play loosey goosey at times when passing downfield but I see a bit of a different type offense this week. I'm also riding on the new coach bump. Players will play a little harder for a coach they like and if they want to see him be the next coach they will play their hearts out. I just can't see GB winning by 3+ scores here.

A lot to cover here as Winston did indeed manage the game and avoided mistakes until his interception late in the game going for the tying score. Like the NE game the full game line went anywhere from GB -6.5 to -7.5. We got the easy win and this one was never in doubt. The NYG did play a bit harder and you can't fault the effort.

DET +12.5 - DET has an offense and will score points. Since Campbell took over play calling they've just been an offensive juggernaut and even while PHI is an elite defense, covering 13 is just not something I can see taking place.

Ok I was half right here, as DET didn't do much as Goff was pressured like Lionel Richie singing "All Night Long" PHI does indeed have an elite D and they didn't come close to covering 13 either. Sure it got to 10 but there was never shot at it being in jeopardy. We needed the additional points here. I will add there was some home cooking on that final drive as that was clearly not PI on DET to give PHI a first down.


Houston Texans 0 (-6)
Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-7.5)

Winner

First we get the Texans who just need to win, I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby !!!!! However the Houston defense made life miserable for all facets of the Titans offense. A game Houston must win if they have hopes of the playoffs. The Titans shouldn't score more than 14 in this game barring fluke special teams scores like we saw with the Jets vs Browns last week.

A tougher game than expected but I said I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby and that Houston did. They indeed made life miserable for Cam Ward and TN didn't score 14 points, they scored 13. Pretty close to how I figured it would play out.


Ravens to dismantle the Browns. while the CLV defense may provide some moments of uneasiness, I don't see the CLV offense doing much of anything as they haven't all season, why would it start here?

Like HOU this wasn't easy either but the end result was a victory. CLV managed a total of 16 points while producing only 187 total yards. CLV didn't score the second half and never were in a position to score. The CLV D did provide many moments of uneasiness but BAL found a way to score when necessary and win.

A winner is a winner and we had two on Sunday to raise the season record to 9-4 +410.

Perhaps I write all of this for myself because it's a ghost town here. It's very disheartening to put the effort I put in not only in doing this thread but all I do on the site for 25+ years. It's really bizarre the lack of conversation not only here but elsewhere. I guess people are stuck in their phones and tablets to communicate or put a few sentences together. Perhaps it's time to shut down the forum and move on in life.

Let's Make That $$$$

Great Job Freak ! Don't be so hard on yourself, you've brought people to the water, it's not your fault if they want to stay thirsty.

Great job Freak. Even better job on the write ups. I need to pay attention more to this thread.

Season Record 9-4 +410

I thought that last weeks teaser was great, well I think this one is even better. Granted it took a bit of an effort last week for HOU and BAL to get it done, but let's face it, division games aren't easy no matter the records.

Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (-6.5)
San Francisco 49ers -1 (-7)

This week’s ticket doesn’t feature a single division matchup. Before I dive into the reasoning, let me make one thing clear: when I say this is one of the biggest bets of the season, I don’t mean you should go out and fire recklessly. I’ve built up a strong bankroll with teasers, and last week’s two‑teamer was a solid win. It’s not about pressing when ahead it’s about finding value. And while this week’s teaser looks straightforward, remember they call it a teaser for a reason.

Line Shopping Matters

Don’t settle for inflated odds. I’ve seen books hanging numbers at -140, and that’s a hard pass. Caesars is offering this at even money (+100), and most standard books are at -110. Anything higher than that? Time to walk away and cash out. I’m dead serious about this.

Play: LAR -0.5 vs TB

When I think of Tampa Bay, I think soft. Look at their wins: ATL, HOU, NYJ, SEA, SF, NO. Outside of Seattle—and San Francisco with a backup QB—their best win was way back in Week 5 against SEA. Since then, they’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 (losses to DET, NE, BUF) with the lone win against NO. Now they’re on the road again, fresh off giving up 44 points to Buffalo. That doesn’t inspire confidence.

The Rams, on the other hand, are riding high after knocking off a division rival many considered the league’s best. They’ve beaten the same slate of teams TB has—HOU, NO, SF, SEA—but they’ve done it with conviction.
So ask yourself: would you rather back a team on a five‑game win streak, playing with momentum, or a team that’s lost 3 of its last 4 and is flying cross‑country to face a complete, well‑rounded opponent? The Rams’ only two losses came in games they easily could’ve won—against PHI in a fluky fourth‑quarter finish and against SF in an overtime heartbreaker.

SF -1 vs CAR - This is two fold and really simple. CAR is a fraud at 6-5. They've played the 28th toughest schedule while SF has played the 11th toughest. SF is getting pieces back from injury and the big piece is Purdy.

CAR has beaten ATL, MIA, DAL, NYJ, GB and ATL a second time. Not exactly a murders row and let's face it if you've lost to the Saints at home by 10, that doesn't make me want to run and ring the bell endorsing CAR.

I see Young running around yelling SOS call 911, I'm being mugged as he is slammed to the turf for a sack. Rinse and Repeat because this is what we should see take place.

This line is off by a few points and if SF doesn't beat them by double digits, I'd be shocked. Of all my Bad Man plays this one is by far my favorite one of the week.

I smashed the betting buttons already as this is now my biggest wager on a teaser this year. I didn't think it would be possible after last week but it is.

For those of you looking for a 10 pt teaser this week, simply plug the above two and I would use DET as the third piece.

With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up next week, I wanted to take a moment and wish everyone the best of Thanksgivings and I hope that you spend quality time with family and friends. If that's not possible, spend it whichever way makes you the happiest even if it's just the tv and the games. You know guys as you get older you'll find a deeper appreciation for things that you never did in the past. It's funny what time does to you.

Good Luck and thanks for reading and following along.

Let's Make That $$$

I love this teaser. A few important things Freak said probably needs to be reiterated.

Any bet can lose so DON'T GO FIRING RECKLESSLY if you tail. Also excellent advice regarding what he said under "Line Shopping Matters".

Happy Thanksgiving to you too Freak. GL this week.

Season Record 11-4 +610

I thought that last weeks teaser was great, well I think this one is even better. Granted it took a bit of an effort last week for HOU and BAL to get it done, but let's face it, division games aren't easy no matter the records.

Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (-6.5)
San Francisco 49ers -1 (-7)

For those of you looking for a 10 pt teaser this week, simply plug the above two and I would use DET as the third piece.


Play: LAR -0.5 vs TB

When I think of Tampa Bay, I think soft

The Rams They’ve beaten the same slate of teams TB has—HOU, NO, SF, SEA—but they’ve done it with conviction.

This was a total beat down from the start. They did exactly what I thought they would and don't you love that word conviction because that's exactly what this was.


SF -1 vs CAR

CAR is a fraud at 6-5.

This line is off by a few points and if SF doesn't beat them by double digits, I'd be shocked. Of all my Bad Man plays this one is by far my favorite one of the week.

This played out a bit differently than I envisioned on the defensive side of the ball for SF. However they did get two interceptions and CAR only ran a total of 42 plays in 9 drives. That's not going to win ball games. Add in the fact they only had the ball for 22:18 and that normally equates to losing.

SF not withstanding 3 Purdy interceptions ran 70 plys in 10 possessions and had the ball 37:42. They were clearly the more balanced offense with 32 pass and 38 run plays. CAR on the other hand was 29 pass and 13 run plays.

It wasn't pretty but it didn't have to be and they won by double digits.

By the way SF was my only Bad Man winner this week. Lost two by 1/2 point, DET won but didn't cover and PHI blew a 21-0 lead........ tough week to take in that combination.

For the 10 teamer - DET really pushed the envelope and for the longest time I wasn't sure this was going to get home. It took OT but once again the NYG in defeat were stubborn. Sooner or later they are going to get waxed because you can only go so long all in and losing before it all comes tumbling down. They are still playing hard for the interim coach but I don't think he's going to be the next named head coach. If so I'll be shocked.

I was speaking with a friend and I told him I had my biggest teaser of the year going yesterday. He proceeds to tell me he tailed it and his families happiness is riding on it.

I sent back a reply that I was putting Thanksgiving dinner on his table this year. I had said either people that tailed will be ready for Thanksgiving or will be the stuffed turkey.

You know it's some back and forth conversation but today I was thinking of that conversation and thought to myself, there are people out there tailing my picks and perhaps betting way more than they should. I think I fuel that by my comments about the biggest one of the season or even bigger than last weeks. I never intend to put people in a position that if they lose they can't put food on the table or go without paying a bill or something.

I take what I do very seriously and it's why I say, don't go crazy, don't over do it... etc etc.........

If I in some way have helped your bankroll rise or maybe I have put some holiday cheer into your festivities later this week, I'm glad I can assist. There's nothing worse for me than to have a losing pick. Realistically I can't win them all and they aren't as easy to come up with. I want anyone that follows along to win and I love doing this thread.

The season is starting to wind down and I'll do my best to keep the winners coming.

For those celebrating Thanksgiving in a few days, enjoy the time and raise a glass in cheer to FREAK!



Let's Make That $$$

Great call on this teaser Freak!!! No sweat on both games where you were leading for the full game.

Season Record 11-4 +610

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills +6.5 (-105)
New England Patriots +3 (-115)

-120

This wager was just placed at sportsbook.ag

DET +7.5 - Let's start with the Thanksgiving game, this line is suspicious at DET -2.5. We know GB won by 2 TD's opening week at home vs DET. That was basically three months ago. Which team do you feel since that game has been the better team? If you answered DET, you understand why I'm willing with hands full of turkey breast and gravy dripping to take DET at home with the 7.5. I hear Clara Peller saying "Where's The Beef"

BUF +6.5 - Quite simply, do you feel PIT can beat BUF by 7 points? I don't. Could PIT win, sure, I'm just not seeing them win by a TD or more and frankly I don't see them winning the game. Waive those terrible towels because PIT will be terrible on Sunday.

NE +3 - THis could be the game the house of cards known as the NYG comes tumbling down. You are saying FREAK the NYG are 2-10 what house of cards? The NYG have played above and beyond the last 3-4 weeks. They've put in max effort and it has shown, however, a team can't continue to do that when they are losing. This is a game that has some intrigue. You have the NYG that has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and then NE that has played the easiest. Losing breeds losing and winning breeds winning. I hear John Cougar Mellencamp singing in the background. When the walls come tumblin' down
When the walls come crumblin' crumblin' When the walls come tumblin' tumblin' down......... Humpty Dumpty aka NYG is about to take that fall.

Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and don't over stuff yourself, that turkey will put you to sleep by halftime. I helped put a feast on the table, now it's time to start putting gifts under the tree. Don't forget me now......... I'm easy cash, cash and more cash...... although I will take a good vinyl album all you have to do is ask and I can give a list of a few :)

Let's Make That $$$$

Love this FREAK. Let's STUFF the man!

I like the teaser. Solid reasoning too. Good luck Freak.