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Season Record 14-8 +440

I just can't go out on a losing streak due to teams that showed no effort and paid the price.

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) -120
Baltimore Ravens +6 (-4)
Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)

I went with the three games that mean the most on the Week 18 card and let me get to it.

TB +7.5 - I know TB has been a literal pile of dog shit the last eight weeks. They were favored in 6 games and managed to find a way to either not play the fist half or disappear in the second half and give games away.

When these teams met a few weeks back. CAR won by a FG and held on as TB mounted a game tying or winning drive to end the game.

TB had 21 more total yards. They held the ball for over 9 minutes more while only running 7 more plays. The turnover at the end of the game was the only turnover in the game. They were hurt with 8 costly penalties.

CAR is 3-5 on the road, TB 3-4 at home. I think this game will come down to three key factors,

Mayfield and how he plays along with his decision making, he is going to need to use his legs more.
If TB can keep a clean game on the field and eliminate those penalties.
Can TB do a better job against the run.

If they can do these three things, they win. I expect a tight game and believe TB is the right side here. The points are insurance.

SEA +7.5 - People will remember two things. Week 1 SF won at SEA 17-13 and they will remember what they saw on Monday night as Purdy sliced and diced the Bears up and down the field.

When I think of week 1 games, they truly are a week 4 exhibition game and I take them with a grain of salt. Yes it's true SF dominated the game in every facet but the scoreboard. SF had the ball nearly 38 minutes, ran 22 more plays and had 154 more yards on the road. Yet the score was only 17-13. Let's remind everyone that SF scored the go ahead TD with 1:34 left in the game. But do you recall what happened after that......... SEA started their final drive on their 35 and in 5 plays was down to the SF 9 in only 32 seconds. Remember Bosa sacking Darnold and he fumbled and SF recovered and that was ball game.

Let's fast forward since that game SEA has gone 12-2 including 7-1 on the road and SF has gone 11-4 including 5-2 at home. A lot of what SF does predicates on CMC, he leads the team in rushing and receiving. He leads the team with 17 TD's. Stop him or slow him down and you effectively shut down SF. SEA has multiple guys they can go to, Walker, Charbonnet, Smith Njigba etc. Even with Purdy's greatness the last 5 weeks, Mac Jones still leads the team in passing yards.

I can hear people saying but Darnold folds in the big games. I think this one is a lot different due to familiarity and the team has just been a machine on the road. They actually prefer playing away which is something you don't hear teams say. The line on a neutral field would have Seattle in the 6 point favorite range. They are the better all around team and can do a lot of different things that I don't think SF can. If the SEA defense does what it has all year to this point, I can't see them losing unless some fluky things happen.

I was on SF over CHI and wrote about it in this same thread. I think I have a good read on these teams and if SEA were to lose which I don't think they will, the points are more than enough for insurance purposes.

BAL +6 - I'm not going to be long on this one. It all comes down to QB and RB play here. Whether it's Jackson or Huntley they have an edge on Rogers. Yes Huntley has an edge on Rogers due to variables and the ability to move freely, something Rogers only does in a last case situation and has no choice. Henry vs Warren/Gainwell, who are you taking and yes you can take both for Pittsburgh but you won't because combined they aren't Henry.

When they last played Gainwell was the leader in the game for PIT with 4 carries for 15 yards, Metcalf had 7 catches for 148. No Metcalf, and using Friermuth as your best option outside of perhaps Warren, I don't think this is going to go well for PIT.

I like BAL to win this SU and to cover the -3.5 to 4 points and I see a convincing win at that.

Let's Make That $$$$

Let's get that paper FREAK. I love the above.

Season Record 15-8 +540

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) -120
Baltimore Ravens +6 (-4)
Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)



TB +7.5

I think this game will come down to three key factors,

Mayfield and how he plays along with his decision making, he is going to need to use his legs more.
If TB can keep a clean game on the field and eliminate those penalties.
Can TB do a better job against the run.

If they can do these three things, they win. I expect a tight game and believe TB is the right side here. The points are insurance.

Mayfield had one INT and ran for 31 yards. Penalties were less than the last meeting with 6 and CAR had 5 of their own with one yard difference.

TB allowed only 19 yards rushing on 14 attempts and still only won by 2. I will say the CAR real game cover was a one of most obvious fixes that even a blind man could've seen. Up 16-7 with about 520 to go in the game and a FG makes the cover for TB no matter what CAR did after that. But wait, a blocked FG. Let's fast forward CAR 4th and 8 on the TB 48 and they magically connect on a 40 yard pass. 2 plays later it's a TD and 16-14. I'm not done, TB gets the ball and ultimately has to punt with 26 seconds. They down it at the CAR 3. Rather than put on a rush and still have 6 back, they rush 3 as Young gets a 18 yard pass completion. Any other time, they are putting on the rush and getting to the QB, a holding or a throw away to do it again. They can't give up the safety to have TB win by 4 and cover the 2.5. Sorry but it's just fucking laughable.

SEA +7.5 -

A lot of what SF does predicates on CMC, he leads the team in rushing and receiving. He leads the team with 17 TD's. Stop him or slow him down and you effectively shut down SF. SEA has multiple guys they can go to, Walker, Charbonnet, Smith Njigba etc. Even with Purdy's greatness the last 5 weeks, Mac Jones still leads the team in passing yards.

They are the better all around team and can do a lot of different things that I don't think SF can. If the SEA defense does what it has all year to this point, I can't see them losing unless some fluky things happen.

CMC 8 carries for 23 yards and caught 6 for 34. They shut him down. They shut down SF and held them to 3 points. SEA ran for 180 yards. SF had 9 1st downs, 173 total yards, held the ball for 22:12 on 42 plays. SEA ran 67 plays, 23 1st downs and had the ball 37:48. 361 total yards.

Complete domination..........


BAL +6 -

I'm just going to call BS here on this game period. This rivals the TB game and I haven't got to the game that is sticking in my crawl yet. A guy misses an EP for the second time in 4 years and like magic a guy that has missed 3 FG all year and that were all 50 yard plus magically misses a 44 yard attempt where he was 7 for 7 from 40-49 all season. Sorry but this is just all too fishy. Sure we win with the points but is it that the NFL just wants Rogers to have one more playoff run? I'm no conspiracy theorist or really truly believe in fixes but today was the day of all days where things stuck out for the world to see.

Other games - CLV getting a walk off FG. This after McPherson missed not one but two extra points. He had missed one all year. Why they didn't go for two to tie the game at 14 instead of trying to still be down 13-14 is beyond me. Well they ended up down 12-14! I guarantee in any other game, they are going for two.

I don't know if I can even talk about the ATL game up 19-10 with 2:52 to go. Game ends 19-17 and ATL doesn't cover 3.5. Let's just say Raheem Morris was fired instantly after the game for a damn good reason.

Any way, a winning ticket on the final week of the regular season and a 15-8 +540 finish. 65.21%

You won't find many if any with that kind of winning %. However not many found this thread in 2025 and how I feel right now is just as it has been for quite a long period of time here on the forum and in life. The feeling of being underappreciated and the things I do for people it's like they are now expected.

You know when athletes and performers know it's time or near time to end their career, I can honestly say, I know the feeling and every day the BS and what not continues, the closer I'm just going to wake up one day and pull the plug. Then what?

Let's Make That $$$$

Kudos to a fine season FREAK. You did an excellent job not only in having a big winning season you gave insight into how you constructed your tickets and thoughts behind them. You don't see that kind of quality much anymore.

Thank you for educating this Canuck!

Your closing leads me to believe you are looking to close down due to feeling under appreciated and not receiving the proper credit for twenty five years and this topic.

Take this advice, you are appreciated but people don't come out and say it. People are wrapped up in electronic devices and society it seems doesn't care. I think of it as during the participation trophy period that it's now as you described it, expected.

Even here in the Great North people aren't as neighborly or outgoing towards others, it's more of a I don't want to deal with you attitude.

I try to post what I can and it's nowhere near anything of what you do and I'm sorry for that.

I hope people take care of you and I made a post in the Bad Man area and as I said I don't follow NFL as much but get a CFL contest going and I'm winning it!

I can't thank you enough for everything you do and that's a heartfelt thank you.

Keep being you, you are a one of a kind.

Great year Freak . Keep on trucking next year!

NE has made it to the Superbowl with one game to play.

I'd make the Rams and Seahawks both -3.5 against NE.

Line opened and got pushed to Seattle -5 immediately.