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NBA 5/5/26

San Antonio Spurs -6 for 2 units
San Antonio Spurs first half -3.5 for 0.5 units
San Antonio Spurs to win NBA Championship +115 for 2 units

Just for the record, the line was -6 (-108) at my casino and by the time I refreshed the line in the parking lot it was -5.5 (-114).. darn! But interestingly enough, I may have been sucked into buying the hook at -5.5… Old me thought five was a key number in the NBA. I don’t believe there are key numbers anymore in the NBA, especially playoffs after my data of past couple seasons. If there was one, it may be 7 in the playoffs/ 5 in the reg season? Idk. Anyway, I also wasn’t sucked into considering betting the Spurs -230 on the moneyline bc that weight is so heavy - although I think there’s a really high probability they win game 2.

This reminds me of when I bet Oklahoma City at home in game two. While it is early in the series, this is an absolute must win for San Antonio. The Knicks did their job and stole a game, I know how amazing they are playing, and they even got more shots up than the Spurs in game one – but I had told myself I wasn’t touching game one when I thought it was going to be Thunder versus Knicks, once that was not the matchup, I predicted (to myself and in discussions) Spurs would probably win by 1 to 5 in game one and didn’t wanna touch it with any hard-earned dollars. ATS, I really may have gone Knicks though. But I knew if Knicks won game 1, the series price would flip and you wouldn’t have to lay 2:1 for Wemby to win his first (of maybe many) rings.

After the emotions of the game seven win against the Thunder, with Knicks waiting (and after the last long wait, they had the terrible start against Cleveland game one - weren’t going to do that again)… there were too many things lining up for the Knicks a good game one and Spurs to potentially have a little flatness. Game 1’s result doesn’t surprise me at all.

And onto game 2, the Spurs seem to start strong in these desperation moments, so that’s where my logic on a little bit of sugar on the first half bet comes in to play, and going ATS for the game - bc that’s what you’re supposed to do (so my data says) when you like this team to win. I do have a small victory covered with the series bet exposure.

Just for the record, now that New York stole game one – I believe it goes: Spurs win games two and three, New York wins game four. Then home court holds throughout the final 3 games and Spurs win in 7. There will be opportunities to revisit this as the series progresses, but Jalen Brunson did get a little banged up last night for a moment there right? In this scenario - game 3 will be a classic I’m thinking - but game 6 might be of the best games in NBA history with Knicks winning on a final shot, etc, to force the game 7.. but then Spurs would win game 7 by 5-10 points and it wouldn’t be a final bucket game.

Any way you cut it, sports fans are in for a very interesting series with two talented squads. Good luck everybody and Go Spurs!

NBA YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

Pending: Spurs to win finals +115 for 2 units

Spurs game two started out -5.5 and was -6.5 before tip with a -240 ML.

Didn’t matter as Spurs lost outright by 1, Wemby missed a shot at the buzzer (and fell) and I am so very impressed by this Knicks team, wow. Perhaps I’m just wrong about this NY squad. Spurs were down 4 at half. Down 2-0 to a wildly hard working Knicks team that got more shots again.

I’d like to point out I did have the instincts that Spurs would start strong correct; they were up 9 after the 1st but were outscored 31-18 in the 2nd. Wemby taking all that wear and tear vs the Thunder.. I should’ve sniffed it out. But no dice. Spurs are now +370 to win the series after being down 2-0 and Knicks are -500. Crazy. Who would’ve thunk it? Knicks are -2 back at home in game 3. Had Wemby made that final shot and they won by 1 (obvs wouldn’t have covered the spread but I’d at least have my series bet 1-1), I may have been on Spurs plus 2 in game 3. But now.. down 2-0.. I don’t have a great read on this Knicks team. May be watching. My first half bet failed and the second aeries bet of the year (0-1 currently - Thunder in WCF) looks very bad. No hooks mattered, not a single moneyline vs ATS ended up mattering all playoffs for me - I’ll be sticking with ATS moving forward and never buying a hook bc they’re actually worth like 5% vig imo - and we’re talking good numbers like 3-8 - but it costs 10% to pay for it. I have enough of a sample size too.

NBA 6/8/25

San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units

Pending: San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

I have a pending play on SAS to win the finals already (after game 1) for +115 for 2 units. I was thinking about adding one unit there to make my new average 3 units for an avg cost of +200. But I thought about it a lot; I like the Spurs tonight to take care of business - but this is a team I don’t believe can be swept by the Knicks and with game 5 at home - if game 3 goes sideways, I can still see them winning games 4 & 5. If this +2.5 games takes care of business, then ok - maybe occasionally we can bet a futures or series. But, more importantly, if they lose in 5 or less, it’ll truly show how terrible my futures betting is and has consistently been for multiple years. I would have to take an oath to stick to only ATS in NBA at that point lol.

Ok - so am I crazy but are we one Wemby bucket falling away from being actually pretty close to calling the first two games? Sure I’m 0-1 ATS (and straight up - ***thank goodness I didn’t bet the moneyline** - that would’ve hurt bad after the Spurs made a comeback) with a bad currently priced futures pending.. but let’s unpack it.

Game 1 - we expected a close one. Didn’t touch anything but kinda wish I had taken that cushion with NY. Was too thrown off with SAS>OKC. Game 2 - a must must win for the Spurs and they’re a bucket falling away from it. I feel like the last two mins brought them back to where they should be.. and Wemby had an embarrassing mistake in there.. you know he’ll be motivated.

Now we’re at game 3. The box score tells me that .. actually… numbers wise this Knicks team won game 1 & 2 fair and square. But let’s just call a time out. Let’s throw away game 1 - so an all time youngster let the big lights get to him a bit and he made a bad mistake at the end to go down 2-0. But just a couple days ago I was willing to lay 2:1 that they’d win the series? So now I get a 2.5 game cushion in a series that I think will be 2-1 after tonight where the Spurs still have a shot to win it all. Game 4 would be a coin flip if Spurs win game 3, but I’ll love my positioning a lot better.

So for right now - all I see is value, value, value. And it’s so hard to “buy the dip” in these moments, but I just have a hard time believing the West goes down 3-0 in this year’s finals after many considered the WCF the “real finals.” Knicks didn’t get the memo. Doesn’t mean there isn’t some real value here though in Spurs +2.5. Everyone and their friend is probably thinking Knicks in six now.. and that still would get the job done at +2.5 games.

My only hesitation here is that if Spurs take care of business in game 3 as I expect, then I would be taking a win off the board – which I’m trying to do a better job of avoiding.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

I bet the Spurs +2.5 games for 3 units but as I walked into the casino Monday afternoon, I was about to bet the Spurs in game 3 plus 2 for 2 units and lay another unit on them to come back and win the series +370. Honestly, it was just a “dollar cost average” approach to the futures bet I already had pending and decided not to throw good money after bad, even though I thought Spurs winning it all was still on the table. I saw Spurs going into game 6 at +355 to win the WCF and didn’t touch it, but wished I had - so that was on my mind here too. A good “value” play, but I decided to use my hard earned money on a play I liked even more heading into game 3; that’s +2.5 games in the series. I don’t think Spurs get absolutely smoked even if they do lose this series.

The difficult task is that I may be taking a win off the table (again, like I did earlier this playoffs with my parlays) and I am trying to reduce that. Comparing my approach to just ATS bets..

In game 3… I would’ve bet the Spurs +2 with 3 still pending on the finals futures bets (3 units).

Game 4, I haven’t determined what I was thinking before placing this bet - but I expect a coin flip - so, let’s say I no touch that game ATS - and then I likely would’ve bet Spurs ATS game 5 regardless of 2-2 or 3-1 NY.

I have action pending on the series and various scenarios as outlined here, so I may not be betting games 4 & 5, especially if they split in NY - but let’s compare this series bet against my alternative which would be Spurs +2 game 3, no touch game 4, Spurs minus ATS in game 5.

Anyway - today’s analysis is moreso in the last post, this is just me talking out my logic for when I look back at these posts in the future.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

Spurs did go on to win game 3 as 2 point dogs (1.5 by tip) bringing the series to 2-1. Fox’s shot w 12 seconds left was cold. So, 2 units in hand I’m putting at risk instead of taking the W… It is, at this stage, a good value play - but not a secured winner & unnecessary risk. And yes, the Spurs +370 to win the finals (before game 3) price would’ve been a good price - but it’s a sandbox I perhaps shouldn’t be playing in anyway (proven last year and reiterated this year lol) with my pending +115 on the Spurs. After game 2 was the moment to make the Spurs series play and loved Spurs game 2 big time. I thought after game 1 was… but Spurs lost game 2 ML (& ATS -6) on the final shot.

So, here’s the skinny; here’s what I learned this year:
- we’ve already determined that I cannot do moneyline bets or parlays, stick to ATS. I proved that I created a lot of unnecessary risk for not enough back in reward over a large enough sample size. All ML wins I bet covered their spread also in my sample size. AND.. I would’ve saved myself a -240 moneyline I would’ve hammered in lots of scenarios last game (Spurs game 2 in finals); ironically I kicked this season off with a big chalk Spurs (-9.5 vs Minnesota) as part of a parlay losing outright.
- Don’t buy points (I understand. I don’t wanna price shop, so if I feel the wildly irresponsible need to pay an extra 10% ish to get the line I could’ve/would’ve anyway … and if still at or below the absolute maximum of -129 (referenced last year)… bc it’ll make me sleep better.. ok I guess… but *should* NOT. FYI.. the data shows that you should just suck it up. A couple losses per season by that point or so gap is the price of admission for you being a non-professional/full time price shopper. But -130 or over, idc the scenario you’re dealt, no play period is what you’ve proven here.
- I’ve learned that if Spurs even the series 2-2 (currently 2-1 NY) OR proceed to win the finals, I can occasionally bet series bets - but only once you’re past game 1 in the series! Any other scenario, then no. Must be after at least game 1 and strongly preferred for only one round. Not good at them before the series starts (ex. last year on Lakers) and so far, not great with “during series” plays (Thunder -1.5 games last year in finals, Thunder to win it all going into WCF game 7 (I would’ve bet them anyway ATS), and Spurs after game 1 this year in the finals when a better price presented after game 2)
- I shouldn’t do a series games spread unless Spurs win game 4 or Spurs win game 5 & don’t cover. ATS, I would’ve bet game 3 (Spurs won as dogs) and would be betting ATS game 5 (no touching game 4 in this hypothetical), so I’d take my 1-1 to a 1-0 winning strategy. If either of those two scenarios occur, the +2.5 games bet gained me a little value and was a good play. If Spurs cover games 3 & 5, then I just took a 2-0 and made it 1-0 with unnecessary risk.

Another case study, a little more sample size. It would be pretty funny to ramble on all these posts to just determine what I told myself last year and to only bet ATS ever.

Also, one of the unwritten things that series/futures bets do is handcuff you a little bit mentally as a handicapper. It’s harder to pivot game to game or change your mind fully if you still have action pending on the other team to win the series.

NBA 6/10/26

New York Knicks ML -130 for 2 units

I have Spurs +2.5 games in the series & Spurs to win it all bets pending; this is separate. I decided I can’t let pending plays or preconceptions (like the Spurs and West are way better than the East) drown out my current and single game analysis. Bc, today, right now - I believe the Knicks are going to win tonight and I’d be kicking myself if I only had action going the other way. I decided that, independent of anything pending, I need to be objective in my analysis. Another point in the column for ATS-only betting, but I’ll let my case study of this season conclude before determining black and white rules for moving forward. Also, I can be honest in saying there are maybe scenarios where I no touch this with no action pending or go with a 1 unit play, certainly go ATS not Moneyline.. but bc I have action the other way and can potentially thread the needle, I was even more comfortable making this bet (thinking like when I bet Indy +6.5 in game 6 last year even though I had OKC -1.5 games in the series).

I’ve been saying game 4 would be a coin flip - which now I feel it’s a coin flip at worst for the Knicks. The Knicks could also just hold home court here after seeing replays of Wemby pushing Jalen over and over. They also got some first “important” playoff game at MSG jitters out of the way at home.. and yes the pressure will be on the Knicks.. Wemby was a superstar plus in game 3. Lots of things that can go slightly different in game 4 and Knicks walk away up 3-1. And as crazy as it sounds… it might be your second 3-1 finals comeback in NBA history. I would definitely be on the Spurs game 5 if they lose game 4 in NY (as I expect). Look at the Spurs playoff record this season.. the second of two games in a row on the road - the Spurs haven’t been their best. And they threw a haymaker in game 3.

Think about this series - this is two evenly matched juggernauts and had Spurs been *definitely* the better team they for sure would’ve won game 2 for sure and definitely would’ve covered in a backs against the wall situation. They couldn’t hold it and didn’t. Knicks might actually just be the better team here or they may just be evenly matched.. and in which case.. coming back from down 0-2 on the road, coin flips aside (like Wemby’s final game 2 shot), it’s tough to come back after down 2-0 on the road when you have two closely talented teams.

Ironically I also kinda have to go ML here bc of my hedge - if Knicks win by 1, it would be too heartbreaking, and they already did that once this series. But in some of my (some already written for future posts) notes discussing my case studies of last/this year, I say repeatedly that I should just lay the ATS instead of paying extra on the moneylines. Unless Knicks win by 1 here, the “bet ATS not ML” note will absolutely be a point I’ll be driving home in my next post (which will also serve as rules to follow for future NBA years).

Now onto betting approach rambling… sparknotes is… if Spurs win here in game 4, series bets and series “game spreads” bets will be ok when used very sparingly, but only if also following these rules: after game 1 of the series has been played and not to span over multiple rounds. I will have created value (an earlier win for 1 more unit) with my +2.5 games series bet as opposed to betting game 3 ATS & the tentative plan to bet 5 ATS had Knicks won game 4. The play has ended and I have no other risk. I also created value with the series play and there was even more value to be had if I “averaged down” after game 2. Truth is betting game 3 ATS and increasing my Spurs to win it all exposure when they were +350 for the series may be even more enticing.. but the long and short of it is this style of play is ok.

If Knicks win here, then Spurs win and cover game 5 - I will be placing no series spread bets bc I created unnecessary risk turning a 2-0 (games 3 & 5 ATS) into a 1-0 with unnecessary risk… and no series bets, period, unless Spurs come all the way back and win the finals. Which they could.. but even then, only series bets after game 1 has been played and not spanning multiple rounds. Bc it’ll show I got a great price after game 1 and had I averaged down after game 2, that would’ve been a really great value. All this said, I would’ve just been 3-0 ATS in games 3, 4, and 5 but way just overcomplicated it.

If Knicks win here, then Spurs win game 5 BUT they don’t cover.. then I’ll have turned a 1-1 ATS (games 3 & 5) into a 1-0 by betting Spurs +2.5 games in the series AND it’ll be the first example in last season or this where I am on a moneyline team and they did not also cover the spread. This scenario would throw my case studies out of whack a little bit but would certainly justify some of my nonsense rambling. In this scenario, the series games spread lines would absolutely be something I need to look at throughout the series (post game 1, maybe even post game 2… idk.. preferably later in the series when possible) and then Spurs would still need to come back and win the series to justify betting series bets. Way too far off on too many occasions.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in Series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs to win Series (NBA Finals) +115 for 2 units

YTD: 11-5, +18.92 units

Can you believe the Knicks won by 1? They actually did, absolutely insane and bonkers and wild. How do humans bounce back from that also? They were -2 when I bet them and -2.5 by tip and I went on rants about how one should skip the ML weight.. and here we are. Sometimes it’s just dumb luck. NY was down 29 and came back at home to go up 3-1. Final tip was crazy. Throws a wrench in my personal stat in those situations, good thing I got lucky and happened to go ML. -130 compared to -2 is ok value … lol.. ironic.

So far, my series spread play or series play on the Spurs have not added value. I had better prices with them down 2-0 and again now down 3-1 to get Spurs to win the series.. reiterating that series bets are probably not for me. I had said earlier if Spurs come back and win it all, then I can consider doing series bets once after game 1. (Bc I’ll have had great prices on SAS this series.. and I saw that WCF after game 5 vs OKC ironically - even at -3.5 for game 6!) After game 1 of the series - if Spurs come back, yes to rare series bets. Separately, if Spurs win game 5 but do not cover, then yes to considering series games spreads plays. It’ll have saved me a win from a 1-1 ATS. If Spurs win and cover -5.5, then I’ll just have taken a 2-0 ATS and made it a more difficult 1-0 (my Spurs +2.5 games in series).

I think this finishes my 2026 case studies and helps me determine my gameplan moving forward.. 1. no moneyline plays (or any hopefully) heavier than -130, just bet it ATS, 2. no parlays - if you like the plays just bet both ATS, 3. don’t buy hooks (“key numbers” haven’t played a part for my plays personally in NBA. try to reduce vig - 95% of plays -119 or less vig), 4. never, ever, ever bet futures or to win the championship props.. if you like em to win it all, ride them ATS… and lastly, 5. Let this series play out to tell the tale on series bets.

NBA 6/13/26

San Antonio Spurs -5 (-115) for 4 units

I still have the Spurs +2.5 games in the series and a wager on the series itself on San Antonio pending. This is separate.

So… I like the Spurs here very simply because I think they are the better team; they aren’t the better winners obviously. San Antonio has had a double digit lead in every game this series so far. But if I’m correct, the better team *must* absolutely win one of two chances in an absolutely must win scenario at home (and cover the spread, if they’re truly the better team). Game 2, they did not, that was chance 1 and I’ll talk a bit about that below. Same type of situation here in game 5 at home, I think they hold court and this series is not yet done. The Spurs are going to play a little more loose (but also disciplined in shot selection) - I know that sounds crazy, how could they be loose? But it’s bc they have nothing to lose now. I’m not sure they come back and actually win this series - probably not tbh, bc they can lose game 6 or 7 - but I think they have one great swing in them left and it has to be Saturday night game 5. NY took the soul away from their East opponents every time by the end… yeah, but that’s bc they can and the East was weaker than the West. I don’t think they can just punk Wemby and the Spurs. SAS could’ve won pretty much any game this series.. I’m more inclined to bet situations that include a “return to the mean” like this one.

This is one of my six most confident plays of the playoffs. I was on the winning side in the first four of five (first of which was super lucky Knicks game 1 vs Cle). Kinda tough to scroll back on my posts bc of all my rambling (sorry), should have less rambling next season (if I stick to my rules which I hope I do). Let’s review the first five from these playoffs!

First, the Knicks game 1 vs the Cavs. I hammered this game. Not going to say all in.. but had it lost, idk if I’d be typing this right now in mid June. I had six units pending between two plays on the Knicks moneyline game 1 vs the Cavs. They not only won, but they covered -7.5 ATS - but it took overtime. Handicapping this is the equivalent of blindly hitting bullseye if you bet this one ATS. Cavs were up 22 with under 8 mins left. Knicks won and my bets worked, yay, but wow this one was lucky as all heck. Quick tangent about the most recent NBA game… the comeback against the Cavs was almost as lucky as my finals bet on Knicks game 4 moneyline when they won by 1 as 2 point chalks (after being down 29). Plus I had harped on ATS over ML over and over.. but had to do ML bc of the opposite est series bets… rule of thumb is (not that one should ever hedge) don’t leave yourself a little gap where you can get a double-loss betting both ways. If I bet NY -2 there, I’m losing position on both series bets AND I lose my single game bet.. that would’ve been heartbreaking. I can’t even imagine.

Back to my big positions of the playoffs this year… number 2 was Thunder at home in game 2 of WCF after losing game 1. Loved them there. Absolutely loved them, one of my favorite bets of the playoffs. Six units on the ML between two plays and they won by 9 as -7.5 point chalks. They would’ve covered ATS also.. but that’s really close for comfort. Doesn’t matter - rules are established for a reason and ATS would’ve gotten the job done and it would’ve been very nerve wracking.

Third, I bet four units on the Knicks game 2 ML.. I liked that bet, but not six units worth. I went four units though which nearly maxed out. At -5.5, they won by 16. This was where they went up 2-0 after Cavs had that horrendous collapse. Can the Spurs in the finals avoid that same fate after they blew their lead? I’m hoping so and betting it hard today. This Spurs team is way different and better than this years Cavs team, give me a break.

Fourth, I loved OKC here throughout the series and had I not gotten sucked in on a recency bias and there weren’t injury question marks, I prob would’ve bet it harder. I only bet 2 units on Thunder game 5 at home in the WCF.. they took care of business as -3.5 chalks by tip down from -5.5. Won by 13. But the line movement was a headwind against us; I usually am not on the side (or at least try not to be) against the weight/sharps but was here. Prob needed to be braver and stick to my conviction. That said, I no touched game 6, bc of once again recency bias - but like right after game 5 and OKC’s win, I looked at the box score and said no way at all they do that again in game 6. I should’ve bet the Spurs there and had faith I’d be able to thread the needle, but once again I remind myself - a “no touch” is not a loss. Then my conviction of being very sure OKC would beat Spurs cost me 3 units heading into game 7 when I had the Thunder to win it all bet +125 (had absolutely no faith in the East at that point) and skipped the single game wager (for all intents and purposes, it was like a one game ML loss ish on my -3.5 OKC). Injuries to multiple key players really ended up hampering the Thunder by the end.. I’ll need to absolutely take note of that. When “depth” isn’t playing in the game, then that can’t possibly be a reason to like that team anymore.

Fifth was game 2 of the Spurs in the finals. When I thought this was the first absolute must win spot - and I liked them -6 ATS. I bet 2 units on the spread, half a unit on the first half, and placed 2 units plus money for them to win the championship going into that game. Essentially 4.5 units of exposure, but 2 of them would’ve still been pending after the game. I could not believe the Spurs got punched in the jaw again in game 2. Box score showed us that the two teams are way more evenly matched than I thought and game 1 wasn’t a complete fluke. This bet.. this one sets up my game 5 bet here.

Bc now.. my sixth of my “most confident” plays this playoffs. Although, I prob shouldn’t even count #4 bc I only bet 2 units after getting shy. So, Knicks game 1 vs Cavs lucky win, OKC game 2 vs Spurs nice win, game 2 NY vs Cle nice pick, Thunder game 5 vs Spurs another nice pick - but only bet 2 units and should it count as a “most confident” play..? And then the Spurs game 2 vs NY, I was wrong there. A chance to improve to 5-1 in these moments..

I do not believe what could be the most entertaining NBA finals in many years - and if we go to 6 or 7, maybe ever - will be over in 5 games by the underdogs. Spurs are a good home team .. I don’t think they start 0-3 at home against an inferior team. I know calling the Knicks here “inferior” is just plain wrong at this point.. but what I mean is a -195 to -200 series favorite going into the series, from the stronger conference and healthy.. I don’t think they get hit so hard they go 0-3 at home. People would talk about that .. forever. Like does Wemby put too much pressure on himself? Can the young team even win at home? They’re appx -5 to -5.5 here and I just think the Spurs are up double digits sometime in the 4th quarter.. and this time they happen to hang onto it and win by 7 to 15. If Knicks have any “relax” in them at all.. this is also the kind of spot Spurs could win by 20 (see game 6 vs OKC in the WCF).

So, now the only question was how do I execute the wager? Bc I still have Spurs +2.5 games in the series placed before game 3 for 3 units. If Spurs go on to cover here, I just took a 2-0 and made it 1-0, but much harder to get there and with more risk. I also have Spurs to win it all for 2 units placed after game 2. So… do those count towards other bets in my maximum unit exposure? Finals one for sure.. the +2.5 should count for at least half; ok, let’s say 1.5 units worth of exposure and 0.5 for the finals bet.. so that means with my 6 unit maximum (when split between plays; I previously said 2, but 3 also counts I suppose).. I’m betting ATS for 4 units Saturday to bring this to my third ~6 units of exposure in one game (debatably more) play. First being Knicks ML game 1 vs Cle (lucky win, but they ironically would’ve covered the -7.5 in OT) and second being Thunder game 2 ML (they would’ve also covered ATS -7.5, winning by 9). This will be my third. First two certainly kept it interesting (had I been on OKC ATS, it would’ve been even more so).

I actually predict - right here, right now - we still see a game 7 in this series. +400 for Spurs to win, down 3-1, is not a good enough price imo for me to add more there.. but think on this. You know I like Spurs game 5, that’s clear by my wagers. Then you have all of America betting the Knicks to win in six and you have the trappiest NY -2 or -3 you’ll ever see.. no, you know what? It’ll be NY -1 or -1.5 bc Vegas will *want* you to bet NY. I know - can you believe it, I’m picking against what would be a beautiful fairy tail and backing these 22 year olds and a 7’5” alien instead.. game 7, at that point idk. Either Spurs win by 20 or it comes down to the wire and prob would lean Knicks in that case - I guess we’ll cross that bridge when/if it comes. But in NY.. Spurs controlled and won game 3, game 4 - they were up 29. We don’t talk about the other part bc once quicksand starts, it’s hard for a young person to stop that and the coach didn’t help.. so.. Spurs proved they can win in NY.

Anyway - I’m predicting right here, right now that Spurs win games 5 & 6. If Spurs can’t cover in game 5, I’ll feel less confident about that game 6.. but with a little momentum.. going back to NY where the collapse happened…

I’m predicting that this series isn’t over just yet..

NBA 2026

YTD: 11-8, +8.87 units

I was wrong. Darn. I really liked the Spurs there. Loved them to keep this thing going - but even winning game 6 they proved would’ve been tough. Wish I could’ve seen the Knicks magic there and pivoted.

So for game 5… I can spin it/package it however I want.. but I had 10.05 units of exposure directly or indirectly on that game. Wayyy much... over exposure was an issue here. I proved I gotta stick to ATS .. again. My series games spread bet lost and I took a 1-1 (game 3 & game 5) and turned it into a 0-1. Plus my series bets in general were bad.. again. Knicks were on fire and a magic team, Jalen Brunson is a bad dude. Kudos. Ouch.

It’s funny how my last post talking about my rules changed to include just taking the moneyline if it’s -130 or less.. I had the post mostly typed up but Knicks game 4 made me change it.. I talked about how there wasn’t a single example of me betting the ML in the past two years and it mattering vs ATS.. and sure enough the -2 Knicks in game 4 won by 1 on the final shot after being down 29. ATS would’ve been heartbreaking there. So anyway.. I’ll be focusing on ATS only unless the side’s ML is -130 or less, then I will just do ML instead. Black and white execution and can think more about the plays themselves than how I’ll bet them. It’s only bc this game happened right as I’m concluding my case studies and rules for the future… gotta take it into account.

So my rules for NBA moving forward… 1. ATS sides only, unless ML is -130 or below for a chalk - then just go ML, not ATS. 2. No parlays ever. 3. No futures bets ever, especially “to win the championship” futures. 4. Don’t buy hooks ever (what I perceived to be key numbers have not played a part of NBA betting for me personally - and through a large enough sample size), so all ATS plays need to be -119 or less. 5. And for series bets… never do them. Series games spread bets? Nope never do them either.

After last year and this year, if I ever do a futures or series bet it seems to be an auto fade sadly lol. ATS, I can catch some heat though.. I gotta get out of my own way. Game 5 was a def loser for me, I really loved that play and that one stung. I thought they’d win for sure and ATS I felt good about .. but that darn 4th quarter. Congrats NY

NFL 2026

Survivor was fun last year - but I’m going to be going back to focusing on my posted plays here. I will only be doing two play (side only) parlay bets from a weight of even money to -200. My goal will be to reduce vig wherever possible too and really aim for even to -150. I call these parlays “tease-ish’s” sometimes; but a friendly millionth reminder that if you bet them as a “tease” with an old school book - make sure if a leg pushes, it doesn’t make the whole play a loss. With old school teases, back in the day, one win and one push was a loss on a tease (and sometimes they’d charge you 20% vig). That could kill this strategy. I use my local casino that has lines which can be manipulated and you pay different weights. That’s ideal for this strategy. If you only have a book that hamstrings part of this strategy as your only option, I recommend adjusting, finding a new book, or really - making sure you’re under key numbers/only tease sides to hooks (half numbers). There are key numbers in the NFL (even if there isn’t for the NBA lol). But as we know… even getting a team to -2 (under the -3 key number)… they certainly can still win by 2. That’s still a big, valuable point. Having that leg of the parlay push and still potentially getting a win (even if for less units) instead of a loss is huge in sustaining a strategy like this. So, I use the term “tease” loosely but it’s more of a “tease-ish” and what it really accurately saying is… is just a parlay. I’m just trying to feel fancy about it lol. I’m also executing it how many people have used teases through the years. I’m playing 2 side only parlays and if one leg pushes - my bet just removes that leg of the parlay and the play continues (for example with a -120 two side parlay, if one side pushes, it moves to a single -300 play or something like that). I won’t keep harping on that during the season, I’ll make sure to say it now though. It’s important to make sure the execution is precise in a strategy like this and that specific point is taken into account bc that would be a tough way to lose a bet. Especially when, you’ll see: there are times I’ll bring a line down to -3 by design as part of the “tease ish.” If that leg pushing kills your bet, the whole wager doesn’t make sense and I wouldn’t no longer recommend making it. That -3 needs to be a push if your chalk wins by exactly 3! Most modern and online parlays should be this way, but I’m just covering my bases.

Anyway… no case studies, no nothing this year other than 2 leg (side only) parlays from a weight of even money to -200. And absolutely no futures bets lol. My goodness. I’ll actually use the lessons from past years this year. And I started to last year… and then got off the rails. It really does seem that weeks 2-8 is the sweet spot for this strategy. May want to throw some underdogs in there in the back half of the year.. just saying. That’s when the upsets seem to happen that derail this strategy. LY, I was 11-4 on Nov 25th and finished the season 11-11 with 0-3 futures in there and a couple (more than 2 leg) parlays in there that lost. Also, not the first season I had some plus units we gave back - so keep an eye on that.. winning.. but also keeping the units! So there’s the game plan for the NFL season this upcoming year. Let’s stick to it.

Alright! I’m looking at week 1 and while week 1 is usually a “approach with caution” week bc upsets can happen week 1… there’s some interesting spots for this strategy to find a place. Bring Hawks down to catch some points? Or will it be too heavy to make them +3 vs New England, I wouldn’t care if it was +1/2. Bring Chargers down to a FG chalk or less if possible? The two that certainly jump out to me and are right in that 6-9 point chalk range I love.. Jacksonville & Detroit? Two teams that have something to prove this year… against a bad week 1 opponent… Lions play in the Prime game Thurs against Buffalo right after, so that’s a little potentially trappy (historically I think Det just clobbers bad teams though) and worth keeping an eye on; also they haven’t been beating up teams in week 1’s the last few years. Lots of time before NFL week 1, but it’s nice to look. And unfortunately, fyi for my timing of making plays - my casino allows ATS or ML early.. but can’t usually get the sliding manipulated lines until like the Tues/Weds the week of the game. I do like using that as an element of how I place the bets and try to find as much value as I can while still making a bet I think will win every time! Try to avoid (at all costs) those bets where after you’re like.. meh why did I do that..? I don’t even like that play and it was dumb.. walked into a trap, etc. But that’s why forums like this can help hold ya accountable and try to help you make less of the same mistakes over and over and keep more of your hard earned money!

NFL 9/13/2026

Jacksonville Jaguars ML & Los Angeles Chargers ML (-210) for 5 units

*My rambling:
This season, I’ll try to talk about the games themselves a lot more & what I’m looking at from a handicapping perspective instead of how I’m betting. I got a lil crazy during my NBA rambling. So.. hopefully last housekeeping paragraph for the season.. I’m only wagering only two (side only) play parlays this season, with weight of even money to -200. Additionally, I may call them teases or tease-ish’s or parlays, but for one final reminder this season, I’m using those terms synonymously and just make sure: **If one of the two legs push, regardless of what you call it, make sure the play goes back to a one leg play with adjusted weight. Make sure one leg pushing does not make the entire bet lose.** Back in the day if one pushed on a “tease,” it was a loss at some books.

*The play itself:
A couple seasons ago (looked it up; 2024), it seemed that every survivor league was busted by week eight (~94% after week 4 actually). In that year, I want to say that maybe two or three of the four biggest chalks in week one lost outright. This strategy would’ve gotten smacked and even so, I got clobbered that week ATS & got bounced in survivor. So… I want to lay a solid warning to everyone… I say that week 2-8 is the absolute sweet spot for this type of strategy and 2 is the beginning of the range for a reason. I’ll add that I think -6.5 was the largest line that 2024 week 1 a couple years back - so the oddsmakers did try to tell us that there could be some upsets that week (with no full TD chalks). This year, these two being -7.5 (Jags) & -11.5 (Chargers) tells me oddsmakers believe they’re going to win at a high clip. Also, -7.5 is much heavier than -7 imo.

The Chargers are ranging from -10 to -11.5 depending on what sportsbook you look at. I’m seeing them at -10 and a moneyline of -500 at my local casino, that’s actually not bad because I’m seeing prices of -633 etc. for the money line elsewhere. So because of that, I feel inclined to say that I might not get an opportunity to play the Chargers ML again. Having one of the legs weigh over -500 makes getting the price of the parlay to a reasonable level almost impossible. And I’ll add to this - I’d play Chargers -3 here if I had to or had to reduce vig, but above a field goal, I’m not doing it. I’m always taking a chalk down to -3 at the most. That’s where the true value is under the key numbers of 3/4/6/7. So, if I can get -500, LAC are definitely part of this bet and I’ll get into the specific game analysis a bit later.

Then for the second leg I went with Jacksonville. This team was 13-4 last year but are still Jacksonville.. so they’re not going to get the most respect in the markets - compared to a bigger market/team. Seeing this line hold throughout the summer at -7.5, they are letting you take the points with Cleveland. I think Jags could roll here if they are good again next season. Browns will have moments but week 1 on the road in heat will be tough.

In my last post when I was planting the seeds for some of the ideas that I had, I mentioned Detroit. Detroit has held at a -7 at home against the Saints all summer – but I’ve thought about this and the Saints were really hot at the end of last year, they kind of remind me of the Lions a few years back the last year they didn’t make the playoffs.. I want no part of that game. A huge part of my strategy is not only who I’m betting on, but who I’m betting against. The rookie quarterback Shough won five games last year. In fact, after losing his first game to drop the Saints to 1-8, they went on a 5-2 run with Shough and then lost the final week by 2. That’s a good Shouging (you like that one?).. so if I bet that game, it’s the Saints plus a cushion. (Teasing lines is also always less valuable in a game with a 49.5 point total like this one than a 40-42 total also, because points are more valuable the less scoring there is).

A more disciplined execution of this play would be like a Jags ML & Chargers -2.5 for like (-185). I’ll be aiming to keep the weight down when I can, but also try to find the best value I can. Regarding it being -210, I wanted to get this play in early (even thought that’s generally not advised bc injuries can happen in preseason, etc) and partially bc my casino doesn’t allow custom lines til the week before games are played (usually that Tuesday). If not having to line/book shop means the smallest flexibility.. ok. As for why I went with a big shot in week 1, I just love playing from ahead. Never go all in, it doesn’t work - but I love to play from ahead. When I’m behind, in my old age, I tap the brakes hard and advise all to never ever chase (as I’ve done plenty through the years). Playing from ahead is such a different vibe though. So never go “all in,” but I love a strong, in control first play; I mean I’m typing this in July so I surely know what I’d like to do for Week 1.

*Jags/Browns analysis:
Anyway - back to The Jags, who I made the cut. And fyi I wasn’t ready to bet and buy up any of the dogs in week 1 (albeit some low total games are intriguing) - but I’ll be open to it this year. Right now, for Week 1, I just like my two projected above average teams at home against my projected lower tier teams…

Let’s talk about Jacksonville. An underrated stat to look at is their home/road record. Last year, Jacksonville went 7-2 at home, but one of those losses was at a neutral site against the Rams and the other was the week before at home against future Super Bowl champs Seahawks 20-12. They only lost 1 game in Jacksonville all year of their 8 and it was by 8, the week after beating the big bad conference rival Kansas City Chiefs in a shootout (also at home). This just tells me.. wow. This team is awesome at home. Even in the season before - when they were an ugly 4-13, they were still a respectable 3-5 at home. And in that growing pains 2024, look at these numbers: 5, 3, 5, 3, 7. That’s how much those 5 losses were by. They came by a max of 7 points. That’s what teams do when they’re learning, then the next season the get the breaks (and went 13-4 last year). Even if this year returned to an 11-6 mean, any way you cut it, they’re a good home team. One other stat that could end up applying is Trevor was 9-1 against losing record teams last year. Browns could end up fitting that description this year.

Now on the other end, I don’t know if it’ll be Deshaun Watson or Shadeur Sanders, but I know Myles Garrett won’t be rushing for them anymore against Lawrence. Also, Jacksonville has an excellent defense. I’m not saying Cleveland can’t win a couple games, I’m just saying going into Jacksonville week one will be a tough task. On the road, they were 2-6 in 2025, 1-8 in 2024 and 3-5 (when they were 11-6 overall) in 2023 on the road. I do love looking at home/road splits for this strategy. Then I unpacked the 2-6 last year and they got beat up a lot. Even their W in Week 18 vs Cin, they were outgained and outpossessed, but had more turnovers bounce their way only to win 20-18 (when the opponent missed 2 XPs and missed going for 2). So, Cleveland being of the weaker road teams and Jags having had a strong home presence - when the Jags are playoffs or bust and Cle is maybe starting over again - tells me that Jags should take care of business here.

*Chargers/Cardinals analysis:
As for the West coast later afternoon game, I like Harbaugh against bad teams. Actually I think I’d like the under if I had to pick the total. Brissett is actually pretty solid and has been around for a while, the journeyman even filled in for Brady in 2016, but asking him to win now against a good 2026 Chargers defense will be asking a lot .. Also, Herbert *should* be able to light it up against one of the projected worst teams in the NFL.. this could be the most one sided game of the week. Chargers should be able to score and slow down AZ’s ok offense. Plus, Chargers have a lollipop week 2 opponent also so they won’t be looking ahead.

Speaking of looking ahead… holy crow. Can Cardinals be “playing not that bad,” while also being 0-13. That schedule - woahhhhh. Unless I missed one, the smallest dog they are is +7 through week 14 (their bye week). Then a couple reasonable opponents but by that point, the L’s could’ve already piled up. Everyone just keeps saying the Cards will be bad bad. I think they’ll be sparky, won’t be hapless, but yeah they’ll be bad. I just think Chargers need to win games like this early more and can. Harbaugh against a weaker opponent should be a win. Under Brissett last year, the Cards had a couple showings of competitive losses on the road, but also got beat up the other times. His 1-11 record last year had some competitive efforts, but I just need Chargers to win here and Cards want a premier QB in next years draft if Beck isn’t the answer. He may even get a shot this year. In conclusion, we have some good stuff for the Chargers and projected less talent for the Cards. Plus we’re in California - when Chargers really need to start strong this year - so I like them to win.

*Some concluding thoughts:
Unrelated directly to this week’s play, but I wanted to list out some of the things I look at when analyzing, kind of a check list of sorts. The 4 first things that came to mind: 1. Records- last year, year before. Home/road splits are hugely important, I think even moreso than total record. 2. Then what is the quality of those W/L’s? Was it a close win but they were outgained with the other team having multiple turnovers? Sometimes that’s worse than an unlucky L. Did the team lose a lot but many games were close & there were a couple letdown spots? That kind of stuff. 3. Is there any reason these two specific teams have anything outside the norm against each other? Narrative driving is probably more valuable in the NBA, because effort means more in that sport and it’s more human – but it’s something worth checking in all sports. For example, In NBA, if a player is going against his old team, you can assume that player will give an extra effort or coming back home in a must win in a playoff series. In the NFL, outside the norm things could be like how Pittsburgh covered as an underdog at a high clip for many years straight in there under Tomlin a couple years back or when Bills hadn’t lost by more than 7 points for a year or two straight in ‘22/23; teasing up would’ve been awesome there when possible. And 4. Are the teams healthy? This actually is a bigger deal than I’ve taken into consideration for years, I now gotta take it even more seriously (especially NBA). OKC 25/26 in NBA showed me that if depth is your thing and you lose multiple players, it can’t be your thing anymore. Also, Lamar was banged up LY in Baltimore and it did impact the game. There was less value ATS if he was injured bc his speed was such an asset. More players in the NFL than NBA = less injury impact, but it’s still noteworthy.

NFL 9/13 & 9/14/26

NY Jets +10 & Chiefs +7 (-225) for 2.5 units

The bet itself:
The responsible deployment of this wager is actually Jets +9.5 & Chiefs +6.5 for only -175.. but I decided week 1.. I want to pay a lil extra, acknowledge my irresponsibility, and give myself the cushions (reminder: placing as parlays - if one leg pushes, it reverts to a one leg play). Wager would be -190 if you give only the Jets the extra hopk but leave KC at +6.5, and -200 if only the Chiefs to that +7 and Jets +9.5. I’m personally going hard in week 1, looking for two wins with wagers I really feel confident in, and then hoping to use that ammo this season. Next week and beyond, I hope to settle in with more -150ish’s. My analysis said -100 to -150 was my best value in last seasons.

Yes, the Chiefs cross zero. If you talk to an experienced gambler, they would tell you if you are teasing, you lose value teasing through zero. That’s because the spread from -2 to +2, let’s say, is not nearly as valuable as a move from -7 to -3. I agree. There is more value when you can avoid crossing zero, it can also get expensive vig wise .. but in my analysis below, you’ll see why I like the Chiefs with a little cushion at home. A valuable cushion. And I like getting the Jets to around plus double digits because I have a hard time seeing this Titans team beating anyone by double digits at this stage in their development. Expensive weight.. but another week 1 play where I’m laying the lumber.

General NFL discussion & thoughts:
I knew my first play for week 1 - still love it - back in July, posted above. That said, I was a little nervous seeing AZ RB Jeremiah Love start out so strong in preseason… but, unfortunately (we will never cheer for an injury here), he sprained his ankle in week 1 of preseason. So even if he plays week 1 reg season, he may not be 100%. Another bump for the Chargers there. Hope he heals nicely & plays in week 2, fully 100% healthy and avoiding the week 1 Chargers I bet on. Second, I still really like the Jags at home week 1 (and in general; idk where the Colts love is coming from til Daniel Jones can prove he can do it again) and they certainly can win the division.. Houston may also be quite impressive this year. Those two teams could make some noise unexpectedly in the AFC next year and combine for .. let’s say 22-23 wins at least. Anyway, further analyzing the slate.. Half of me thought that may be my only action, but a part of me kept digging for a second play to see if there was value to be found. I have specific thought out reasons for the Chiefs and Jets (well, really, against the Titans - and assuming Breece Hall plays; typing this in August after he got a lil banged up) - but first I’ll quickly brush over some other thoughts I had across the league.

While I do kinda like the Lions to win straight up vs NO, but putting any actual money on it would be crazy after I literally said in my last post that Saints week 1 could be your spoiler of the week… and the Lions have a primetime look ahead game against the Bills in week 2. So I’m not touching that. Saints did get hot end of last year, but .. there may be some smoke and mirrors in those wins - no non division upsets. Plus my dark horse thought has now been picked by more mainstream folks, not much of a sleeper anymore. Lions should have a good season and if I liked one wins over total this year, that may be it, but maybe we wait til week 3 to bet Detroit (ps I don’t bet against the Bills), but once I do - I believe there will be a few opportunities to play them weeks 3-9 when they finish that stretch against Miami.

Other considerations have included the Raiders, Bengals, Falcons and Seahawks. For now though, just adding one additional play.

No Vegas bc I just simply decided even though they have Kirk (who’s like ok at best c’mon) and a renewed vision, why should they *for sure* beat this Miami team in week 1? They were 3-14 LY. I’ll bet against Miami this year I’m sure, but Raiders were bad last year and it wasn’t .. just.. Geno. While I have a bet on him here, he was really bad too behind a bad O line. If Mendoza plays, first year game 1 QBs have terrible historical stats. Plus he struggled in preseason game 2.

No Bengals bc I just can’t possibly trust them early in the season. How can anyone watching them start slow so many years? Plus Bucs played better than their record indicated last year, Baker is playing for the contract, and Vea could figure his contract out and come out hungry or have a couple prove it games he lines up for. If he doesn’t play and Bengals seem competent, I could see Bengals finding their way back on my dance card.

Not the Seahawks, bc this season opener is figuratively the Patriots Super Bowl. So what do I mean by that? I think Seattle is better, I think Pats will regress this year. I believe Seahawks are a playoff team but Pats don’t make it. So why not bet the Hawks? Bc this is a weird standalone game, Super Bowl rematch and they may get a weird one game lift and who knows if Vrabel’s weird offseason can still motivate a one game spike. Their kicker maybe makes his FGs too (reference to his preseason game 1 struggles).

And lastly, don’t hate the idea of Falcons +10, but don’t love it and would only consider…. IF… Tua is healthy and starting or Penix looks great - and is healthy and starting. I think Tua could even be the tiniest bit undervalued after years of keeping plenty of games respectable. Can 72 year old Rodgers put up idk.. 28 points? I think they’d need that to cover -10. Idk if they can get there on that side of the ball. But anyway.. until QB situation is clearer, certainly can’t touch this one yet. Plus Pit is supposedly situated well for this season, but who knows.. D is suspect and Rodgers is very old.

Jets/Titans analysis:
I’m expecting a close game and honestly the Jets to win. Titans were terrible last year. I actually predict they’ll get their first win in week 7 vs Cle. Plus the Jets coach on the hot seat and a bunch of good new defensive players can keep this the low scoring game I’m predicting. This may be Aaron Glenn’s last shot (certainly in NY) and he needs to show promise out of the gate and prove he’s helped get red eye Geno Smith at least to a competent level of QB play.

The Jets have a fresh start this year.. and wow.. is there a part of me that can get sucked into thinking they can win 7? The Jets have a few good new players and it helped reset their defense. But for this play, I only need one week and the Titans are bad. They were still bad in back half of LY. I’ve joked that the only way this could lose by double digits is if Titans won 14-3 bc Geno threw two pick sixes. I am also operating under the assumption that Breece Hall will be good to go for week 1 after a hammy tweak in preseason game 1, bc that would sting if he doesn’t play. That said - Jets may not be a good team, but they have better players than the Titans. NY added 7-9 new starters on defense; 4 of which have a (video game) rating of 78 or over including LB Davis with a 90. (I use those ratings just as a sanity check). Also they were 3-9 LY and it was a lot of close losses in there before they went to Cook as the QB and totally gave up. So with a better defense and Geno’s last chance - having an.. up and down camp - I like them to win here vs Ten and maybe sneak out 7 wins (just looked at schedule .. eek. Maybe 6). I think they can actually be an improved team and show a flash of hope at a point. I can see them being 6-8 and still alive before finishing 6-11 or 7-10. Anyway, it’s hard to say “I like the Jets,” but I like the Jets here vs the Titans.

Speaking of the Titans, I heard someone say “well from that Seattle game on,” but no. No, until I see some sustained success I don’t think they’re good yet - offense especially. Plus the Jets don’t need to win.. just keep it to single digits. Next, I want to talk about how bad that 3-14 Titans record really was - I know it well bc the first win was against Arizona (who also turned out to be 3-14 fwiw) and the Titans had NO business winning it and coming back to win 22-21. Everything they did looked so hard for them. I remember watching that Ten/Az game last year and Ten won but their offense was so bad and Az ended up being bad and Ten still looked really bad against them. Cam was not ready last year and after a weak week 1 in the preseason, I’m hoping he needs at least another week to get going in year 2. Their second win was 31-29 over the 5-12 Browns and their third win was over the Chiefs backups in week 16. Why do we think they should be favored against… anyone? And now I think the Jets may have a little juice this year with defensive additions? Ok, I’ll take plus bigger points. Plus if you unpack a couple “good” losses Titans allegedly had- Hou was 7 points better (imo) in their 16-13 division win over Ten in week 11 and Seattles 30-24 win over the Titans wasn’t as close as the score indicated; Titans had a garbage time TD. Jets and Titans played in NY in 2024 and Jets won by 7, but it was a close battle. I expect a similar type of result this week.

Chiefs/Broncos analysis:
Did you know Broncos trailed in 15 of their regular season games LY? That’s insane. They went 14-3. That’s just plain crazy. I’m a huge believer in mathematical returns to the mean.. and Broncos are a prime regression candidate. Bo Nix is probably fully healed up, we can assume that - and the Broncos, yeah they’re ok, but I feel more like 8-11 wins ok at the most, not 14. Especially for last year. This year, I’m not fully sold on Bo yet, but also this bet isn’t about who’s going to win the division or have the better season, although sure I’d lean Chargers or Chiefs, this is just one game. So - let’s not talk about the ridiculous amount of comebacks or record in one score games for the Broncos (11-2), but let’s talk their opposing QBs bc this stands out to me.

Broncos went.. against bad QBs: 8-0 (vs Ward, Browning, Fields, Vegas version of Geno twice, Mariota, Oladokun, and Lance). Against ok QBs (PS - also all close games): 4-1 (vs Jones L by 3, Hurts W by 4, Dart W by 1, Stroud W by 3, Love W by 8). Against good QBs: 2-2 (vs Herbert L by 3, Dak W by 20, Mahomes W by 3, Trevor L by 14). So, against ok/good QBs they were a total of 6-3 with their wins coming by 4, 1, 3, 8, 20, & 3 saying that they don’t usually clobber the good QBs (other than Dak) and it’s more of a battle.

As for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.. I like them at home. Admittedly, I tend to move off “legacy” teams or slower and am slower to recognize up and coming teams. I acknowledge this and recognize it - so I may have some bias. But I still like the Chiefs here.

I’ll break down their home contests shortly, but first: vs their division the AFC West, Patrick Mahomes is 36-8 in his career (13-2 vs the Broncos) .. and I just need the AFC Conf Champs of two years ago (did we forget the Chiefs are.. good?) to keep it within a touchdown against last years AFC runner up Broncos. Now I expect a better year for the Chiefs, like a 10-7/11-6 type deal, but for now, I just need one game. But let’s talk more about “returns to the mean” first, because that’s what I believe the Chiefs season was last year in terms of 50/50 propositions falling their way or not. Last year, the Chiefs went a disastrous 1-9 in one score games en route to a 6-11 record and were an impossible 10-0 the year before in one score games when they went 15-2 and made the Super Bowl. This year they’ll probably end somewhere in the middle.

Even so, look at their games last year and the Chiefs found themselves a strong team at home. They were all close even in a bad Chiefs season! I expect them to hold home court vs Den but even if they don’t - they didn’t get clobbered at home last year even during a terrible year. Two years ago they were 8-0 at home, last year 5-4, but their efforts were ALL good at home. Lost by 3 to Philly, by 10 to Hou (but were tied 10-10 in 3rd; I bet the Chiefs here LY), Chargers by 3 but Mahomes got hurt this game, and their backup QB lost to Denver by 7. All good efforts. So if I can get a cushion at home for the Chiefs against this potentially (yet to be determined, but I believe it so) overrated Broncos team bc of their great run in 2025… I’ll take it.