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NBA 5/5/26

San Antonio Spurs -6 for 2 units
San Antonio Spurs first half -3.5 for 0.5 units
San Antonio Spurs to win NBA Championship +115 for 2 units

Just for the record, the line was -6 (-108) at my casino and by the time I refreshed the line in the parking lot it was -5.5 (-114).. darn! But interestingly enough, I may have been sucked into buying the hook at -5.5… Old me thought five was a key number in the NBA. I don’t believe there are key numbers anymore in the NBA, especially playoffs after my data of past couple seasons. If there was one, it may be 7 in the playoffs/ 5 in the reg season? Idk. Anyway, I also wasn’t sucked into considering betting the Spurs -230 on the moneyline bc that weight is so heavy - although I think there’s a really high probability they win game 2.

This reminds me of when I bet Oklahoma City at home in game two. While it is early in the series, this is an absolute must win for San Antonio. The Knicks did their job and stole a game, I know how amazing they are playing, and they even got more shots up than the Spurs in game one – but I had told myself I wasn’t touching game one when I thought it was going to be Thunder versus Knicks, once that was not the matchup, I predicted (to myself and in discussions) Spurs would probably win by 1 to 5 in game one and didn’t wanna touch it with any hard-earned dollars. ATS, I really may have gone Knicks though. But I knew if Knicks won game 1, the series price would flip and you wouldn’t have to lay 2:1 for Wemby to win his first (of maybe many) rings.

After the emotions of the game seven win against the Thunder, with Knicks waiting (and after the last long wait, they had the terrible start against Cleveland game one - weren’t going to do that again)… there were too many things lining up for the Knicks a good game one and Spurs to potentially have a little flatness. Game 1’s result doesn’t surprise me at all.

And onto game 2, the Spurs seem to start strong in these desperation moments, so that’s where my logic on a little bit of sugar on the first half bet comes in to play, and going ATS for the game - bc that’s what you’re supposed to do (so my data says) when you like this team to win. I do have a small victory covered with the series bet exposure.

Just for the record, now that New York stole game one – I believe it goes: Spurs win games two and three, New York wins game four. Then home court holds throughout the final 3 games and Spurs win in 7. There will be opportunities to revisit this as the series progresses, but Jalen Brunson did get a little banged up last night for a moment there right? In this scenario - game 3 will be a classic I’m thinking - but game 6 might be of the best games in NBA history with Knicks winning on a final shot, etc, to force the game 7.. but then Spurs would win game 7 by 5-10 points and it wouldn’t be a final bucket game.

Any way you cut it, sports fans are in for a very interesting series with two talented squads. Good luck everybody and Go Spurs!

NBA YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

Pending: Spurs to win finals +115 for 2 units

Spurs game two started out -5.5 and was -6.5 before tip with a -240 ML.

Didn’t matter as Spurs lost outright by 1, Wemby missed a shot at the buzzer (and fell) and I am so very impressed by this Knicks team, wow. Perhaps I’m just wrong about this NY squad. Spurs were down 4 at half. Down 2-0 to a wildly hard working Knicks team that got more shots again.

I’d like to point out I did have the instincts that Spurs would start strong correct; they were up 9 after the 1st but were outscored 31-18 in the 2nd. Wemby taking all that wear and tear vs the Thunder.. I should’ve sniffed it out. But no dice. Spurs are now +370 to win the series after being down 2-0 and Knicks are -500. Crazy. Who would’ve thunk it? Knicks are -2 back at home in game 3. Had Wemby made that final shot and they won by 1 (obvs wouldn’t have covered the spread but I’d at least have my series bet 1-1), I may have been on Spurs plus 2 in game 3. But now.. down 2-0.. I don’t have a great read on this Knicks team. May be watching. My first half bet failed and the second aeries bet of the year (0-1 currently - Thunder in WCF) looks very bad. No hooks mattered, not a single moneyline vs ATS ended up mattering all playoffs for me - I’ll be sticking with ATS moving forward and never buying a hook bc they’re actually worth like 5% vig imo - and we’re talking good numbers like 3-8 - but it costs 10% to pay for it. I have enough of a sample size too.

NBA 6/8/25

San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units

Pending: San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

I have a pending play on SAS to win the finals already (after game 1) for +115 for 2 units. I was thinking about adding one unit there to make my new average 3 units for an avg cost of +200. But I thought about it a lot; I like the Spurs tonight to take care of business - but this is a team I don’t believe can be swept by the Knicks and with game 5 at home - if game 3 goes sideways, I can still see them winning games 4 & 5. If this +2.5 games takes care of business, then ok - maybe occasionally we can bet a futures or series. But, more importantly, if they lose in 5 or less, it’ll truly show how terrible my futures betting is and has consistently been for multiple years. I would have to take an oath to stick to only ATS in NBA at that point lol.

Ok - so am I crazy but are we one Wemby bucket falling away from being actually pretty close to calling the first two games? Sure I’m 0-1 ATS (and straight up - ***thank goodness I didn’t bet the moneyline** - that would’ve hurt bad after the Spurs made a comeback) with a bad currently priced futures pending.. but let’s unpack it.

Game 1 - we expected a close one. Didn’t touch anything but kinda wish I had taken that cushion with NY. Was too thrown off with SAS>OKC. Game 2 - a must must win for the Spurs and they’re a bucket falling away from it. I feel like the last two mins brought them back to where they should be.. and Wemby had an embarrassing mistake in there.. you know he’ll be motivated.

Now we’re at game 3. The box score tells me that .. actually… numbers wise this Knicks team won game 1 & 2 fair and square. But let’s just call a time out. Let’s throw away game 1 - so an all time youngster let the big lights get to him a bit and he made a bad mistake at the end to go down 2-0. But just a couple days ago I was willing to lay 2:1 that they’d win the series? So now I get a 2.5 game cushion in a series that I think will be 2-1 after tonight where the Spurs still have a shot to win it all. Game 4 would be a coin flip if Spurs win game 3, but I’ll love my positioning a lot better.

So for right now - all I see is value, value, value. And it’s so hard to “buy the dip” in these moments, but I just have a hard time believing the West goes down 3-0 in this year’s finals after many considered the WCF the “real finals.” Knicks didn’t get the memo. Doesn’t mean there isn’t some real value here though in Spurs +2.5. Everyone and their friend is probably thinking Knicks in six now.. and that still would get the job done at +2.5 games.

My only hesitation here is that if Spurs take care of business in game 3 as I expect, then I would be taking a win off the board – which I’m trying to do a better job of avoiding.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

I bet the Spurs +2.5 games for 3 units but as I walked into the casino Monday afternoon, I was about to bet the Spurs in game 3 plus 2 for 2 units and lay another unit on them to come back and win the series +370. Honestly, it was just a “dollar cost average” approach to the futures bet I already had pending and decided not to throw good money after bad, even though I thought Spurs winning it all was still on the table. I saw Spurs going into game 6 at +355 to win the WCF and didn’t touch it, but wished I had - so that was on my mind here too. A good “value” play, but I decided to use my hard earned money on a play I liked even more heading into game 3; that’s +2.5 games in the series. I don’t think Spurs get absolutely smoked even if they do lose this series.

The difficult task is that I may be taking a win off the table (again, like I did earlier this playoffs with my parlays) and I am trying to reduce that. Comparing my approach to just ATS bets..

In game 3… I would’ve bet the Spurs +2 with 3 still pending on the finals futures bets (3 units).

Game 4, I haven’t determined what I was thinking before placing this bet - but I expect a coin flip - so, let’s say I no touch that game ATS - and then I likely would’ve bet Spurs ATS game 5 regardless of 2-2 or 3-1 NY.

I have action pending on the series and various scenarios as outlined here, so I may not be betting games 4 & 5, especially if they split in NY - but let’s compare this series bet against my alternative which would be Spurs +2 game 3, no touch game 4, Spurs minus ATS in game 5.

Anyway - today’s analysis is moreso in the last post, this is just me talking out my logic for when I look back at these posts in the future.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs +115 to win Finals for 2 units

YTD: 10-5, +16.92 units

Spurs did go on to win game 3 as 2 point dogs (1.5 by tip) bringing the series to 2-1. Fox’s shot w 12 seconds left was cold. So, 2 units in hand I’m putting at risk instead of taking the W… It is, at this stage, a good value play - but not a secured winner & unnecessary risk. And yes, the Spurs +370 to win the finals (before game 3) price would’ve been a good price - but it’s a sandbox I perhaps shouldn’t be playing in anyway (proven last year and reiterated this year lol) with my pending +115 on the Spurs. After game 2 was the moment to make the Spurs series play and loved Spurs game 2 big time. I thought after game 1 was… but Spurs lost game 2 ML (& ATS -6) on the final shot.

So, here’s the skinny; here’s what I learned this year:
- we’ve already determined that I cannot do moneyline bets or parlays, stick to ATS. I proved that I created a lot of unnecessary risk for not enough back in reward over a large enough sample size. All ML wins I bet covered their spread also in my sample size. AND.. I would’ve saved myself a -240 moneyline I would’ve hammered in lots of scenarios last game (Spurs game 2 in finals); ironically I kicked this season off with a big chalk Spurs (-9.5 vs Minnesota) as part of a parlay losing outright.
- Don’t buy points (I understand. I don’t wanna price shop, so if I feel the wildly irresponsible need to pay an extra 10% ish to get the line I could’ve/would’ve anyway … and if still at or below the absolute maximum of -129 (referenced last year)… bc it’ll make me sleep better.. ok I guess… but *should* NOT. FYI.. the data shows that you should just suck it up. A couple losses per season by that point or so gap is the price of admission for you being a non-professional/full time price shopper. But -130 or over, idc the scenario you’re dealt, no play period is what you’ve proven here.
- I’ve learned that if Spurs even the series 2-2 (currently 2-1 NY) OR proceed to win the finals, I can occasionally bet series bets - but only once you’re past game 1 in the series! Any other scenario, then no. Must be after at least game 1 and strongly preferred for only one round. Not good at them before the series starts (ex. last year on Lakers) and so far, not great with “during series” plays (Thunder -1.5 games last year in finals, Thunder to win it all going into WCF game 7 (I would’ve bet them anyway ATS), and Spurs after game 1 this year in the finals when a better price presented after game 2)
- I shouldn’t do a series games spread unless Spurs win game 4 or Spurs win game 5 & don’t cover. ATS, I would’ve bet game 3 (Spurs won as dogs) and would be betting ATS game 5 (no touching game 4 in this hypothetical), so I’d take my 1-1 to a 1-0 winning strategy. If either of those two scenarios occur, the +2.5 games bet gained me a little value and was a good play. If Spurs cover games 3 & 5, then I just took a 2-0 and made it 1-0 with unnecessary risk.

Another case study, a little more sample size. It would be pretty funny to ramble on all these posts to just determine what I told myself last year and to only bet ATS ever.

Also, one of the unwritten things that series/futures bets do is handcuff you a little bit mentally as a handicapper. It’s harder to pivot game to game or change your mind fully if you still have action pending on the other team to win the series.

NBA 6/10/26

New York Knicks ML -130 for 2 units

I have Spurs +2.5 games in the series & Spurs to win it all bets pending; this is separate. I decided I can’t let pending plays or preconceptions (like the Spurs and West are way better than the East) drown out my current and single game analysis. Bc, today, right now - I believe the Knicks are going to win tonight and I’d be kicking myself if I only had action going the other way. I decided that, independent of anything pending, I need to be objective in my analysis. Another point in the column for ATS-only betting, but I’ll let my case study of this season conclude before determining black and white rules for moving forward. Also, I can be honest in saying there are maybe scenarios where I no touch this with no action pending or go with a 1 unit play, certainly go ATS not Moneyline.. but bc I have action the other way and can potentially thread the needle, I was even more comfortable making this bet (thinking like when I bet Indy +6.5 in game 6 last year even though I had OKC -1.5 games in the series).

I’ve been saying game 4 would be a coin flip - which now I feel it’s a coin flip at worst for the Knicks. The Knicks could also just hold home court here after seeing replays of Wemby pushing Jalen over and over. They also got some first “important” playoff game at MSG jitters out of the way at home.. and yes the pressure will be on the Knicks.. Wemby was a superstar plus in game 3. Lots of things that can go slightly different in game 4 and Knicks walk away up 3-1. And as crazy as it sounds… it might be your second 3-1 finals comeback in NBA history. I would definitely be on the Spurs game 5 if they lose game 4 in NY (as I expect). Look at the Spurs playoff record this season.. the second of two games in a row on the road - the Spurs haven’t been their best. And they threw a haymaker in game 3.

Think about this series - this is two evenly matched juggernauts and had Spurs been *definitely* the better team they for sure would’ve won game 2 for sure and definitely would’ve covered in a backs against the wall situation. They couldn’t hold it and didn’t. Knicks might actually just be the better team here or they may just be evenly matched.. and in which case.. coming back from down 0-2 on the road, coin flips aside (like Wemby’s final game 2 shot), it’s tough to come back after down 2-0 on the road when you have two closely talented teams.

Ironically I also kinda have to go ML here bc of my hedge - if Knicks win by 1, it would be too heartbreaking, and they already did that once this series. But in some of my (some already written for future posts) notes discussing my case studies of last/this year, I say repeatedly that I should just lay the ATS instead of paying extra on the moneylines. Unless Knicks win by 1 here, the “bet ATS not ML” note will absolutely be a point I’ll be driving home in my next post (which will also serve as rules to follow for future NBA years).

Now onto betting approach rambling… sparknotes is… if Spurs win here in game 4, series bets and series “game spreads” bets will be ok when used very sparingly, but only if also following these rules: after game 1 of the series has been played and not to span over multiple rounds. I will have created value (an earlier win for 1 more unit) with my +2.5 games series bet as opposed to betting game 3 ATS & the tentative plan to bet 5 ATS had Knicks won game 4. The play has ended and I have no other risk. I also created value with the series play and there was even more value to be had if I “averaged down” after game 2. Truth is betting game 3 ATS and increasing my Spurs to win it all exposure when they were +350 for the series may be even more enticing.. but the long and short of it is this style of play is ok.

If Knicks win here, then Spurs win and cover game 5 - I will be placing no series spread bets bc I created unnecessary risk turning a 2-0 (games 3 & 5 ATS) into a 1-0 with unnecessary risk… and no series bets, period, unless Spurs come all the way back and win the finals. Which they could.. but even then, only series bets after game 1 has been played and not spanning multiple rounds. Bc it’ll show I got a great price after game 1 and had I averaged down after game 2, that would’ve been a really great value. All this said, I would’ve just been 3-0 ATS in games 3, 4, and 5 but way just overcomplicated it.

If Knicks win here, then Spurs win game 5 BUT they don’t cover.. then I’ll have turned a 1-1 ATS (games 3 & 5) into a 1-0 by betting Spurs +2.5 games in the series AND it’ll be the first example in last season or this where I am on a moneyline team and they did not also cover the spread. This scenario would throw my case studies out of whack a little bit but would certainly justify some of my nonsense rambling. In this scenario, the series games spread lines would absolutely be something I need to look at throughout the series (post game 1, maybe even post game 2… idk.. preferably later in the series when possible) and then Spurs would still need to come back and win the series to justify betting series bets. Way too far off on too many occasions.

Pending:
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 games in Series (NBA Finals) (-115) for 3 units
San Antonio Spurs to win Series (NBA Finals) +115 for 2 units

YTD: 11-5, +18.92 units

Can you believe the Knicks won by 1? They actually did, absolutely insane and bonkers and wild. How do humans bounce back from that also? They were -2 when I bet them and -2.5 by tip and I went on rants about how one should skip the ML weight.. and here we are. Sometimes it’s just dumb luck. NY was down 29 and came back at home to go up 3-1. Final tip was crazy. Throws a wrench in my personal stat in those situations, good thing I got lucky and happened to go ML. -130 compared to -2 is ok value … lol.. ironic.

So far, my series spread play or series play on the Spurs have not added value. I had better prices with them down 2-0 and again now down 3-1 to get Spurs to win the series.. reiterating that series bets are probably not for me. I had said earlier if Spurs come back and win it all, then I can consider doing series bets once after game 1. (Bc I’ll have had great prices on SAS this series.. and I saw that WCF after game 5 vs OKC ironically - even at -3.5 for game 6!) After game 1 of the series - if Spurs come back, yes to rare series bets. Separately, if Spurs win game 5 but do not cover, then yes to considering series games spreads plays. It’ll have saved me a win from a 1-1 ATS. If Spurs win and cover -5.5, then I’ll just have taken a 2-0 ATS and made it a more difficult 1-0 (my Spurs +2.5 games in series).

I think this finishes my 2026 case studies and helps me determine my gameplan moving forward.. 1. no moneyline plays (or any hopefully) heavier than -130, just bet it ATS, 2. no parlays - if you like the plays just bet both ATS, 3. don’t buy hooks (“key numbers” haven’t played a part for my plays personally in NBA. try to reduce vig - 95% of plays -119 or less vig), 4. never, ever, ever bet futures or to win the championship props.. if you like em to win it all, ride them ATS… and lastly, 5. Let this series play out to tell the tale on series bets.

NBA 6/13/26

San Antonio Spurs -5 (-115) for 4 units

I still have the Spurs +2.5 games in the series and a wager on the series itself on San Antonio pending. This is separate.

So… I like the Spurs here very simply because I think they are the better team; they aren’t the better winners obviously. San Antonio has had a double digit lead in every game this series so far. But if I’m correct, the better team *must* absolutely win one of two chances in an absolutely must win scenario at home (and cover the spread, if they’re truly the better team). Game 2, they did not, that was chance 1 and I’ll talk a bit about that below. Same type of situation here in game 5 at home, I think they hold court and this series is not yet done. The Spurs are going to play a little more loose (but also disciplined in shot selection) - I know that sounds crazy, how could they be loose? But it’s bc they have nothing to lose now. I’m not sure they come back and actually win this series - probably not tbh, bc they can lose game 6 or 7 - but I think they have one great swing in them left and it has to be Saturday night game 5. NY took the soul away from their East opponents every time by the end… yeah, but that’s bc they can and the East was weaker than the West. I don’t think they can just punk Wemby and the Spurs. SAS could’ve won pretty much any game this series.. I’m more inclined to bet situations that include a “return to the mean” like this one.

This is one of my six most confident plays of the playoffs. I was on the winning side in the first four of five (first of which was super lucky Knicks game 1 vs Cle). Kinda tough to scroll back on my posts bc of all my rambling (sorry), should have less rambling next season (if I stick to my rules which I hope I do). Let’s review the first five from these playoffs!

First, the Knicks game 1 vs the Cavs. I hammered this game. Not going to say all in.. but had it lost, idk if I’d be typing this right now in mid June. I had six units pending between two plays on the Knicks moneyline game 1 vs the Cavs. They not only won, but they covered -7.5 ATS - but it took overtime. Handicapping this is the equivalent of blindly hitting bullseye if you bet this one ATS. Cavs were up 22 with under 8 mins left. Knicks won and my bets worked, yay, but wow this one was lucky as all heck. Quick tangent about the most recent NBA game… the comeback against the Cavs was almost as lucky as my finals bet on Knicks game 4 moneyline when they won by 1 as 2 point chalks (after being down 29). Plus I had harped on ATS over ML over and over.. but had to do ML bc of the opposite est series bets… rule of thumb is (not that one should ever hedge) don’t leave yourself a little gap where you can get a double-loss betting both ways. If I bet NY -2 there, I’m losing position on both series bets AND I lose my single game bet.. that would’ve been heartbreaking. I can’t even imagine.

Back to my big positions of the playoffs this year… number 2 was Thunder at home in game 2 of WCF after losing game 1. Loved them there. Absolutely loved them, one of my favorite bets of the playoffs. Six units on the ML between two plays and they won by 9 as -7.5 point chalks. They would’ve covered ATS also.. but that’s really close for comfort. Doesn’t matter - rules are established for a reason and ATS would’ve gotten the job done and it would’ve been very nerve wracking.

Third, I bet four units on the Knicks game 2 ML.. I liked that bet, but not six units worth. I went four units though which nearly maxed out. At -5.5, they won by 16. This was where they went up 2-0 after Cavs had that horrendous collapse. Can the Spurs in the finals avoid that same fate after they blew their lead? I’m hoping so and betting it hard today. This Spurs team is way different and better than this years Cavs team, give me a break.

Fourth, I loved OKC here throughout the series and had I not gotten sucked in on a recency bias and there weren’t injury question marks, I prob would’ve bet it harder. I only bet 2 units on Thunder game 5 at home in the WCF.. they took care of business as -3.5 chalks by tip down from -5.5. Won by 13. But the line movement was a headwind against us; I usually am not on the side (or at least try not to be) against the weight/sharps but was here. Prob needed to be braver and stick to my conviction. That said, I no touched game 6, bc of once again recency bias - but like right after game 5 and OKC’s win, I looked at the box score and said no way at all they do that again in game 6. I should’ve bet the Spurs there and had faith I’d be able to thread the needle, but once again I remind myself - a “no touch” is not a loss. Then my conviction of being very sure OKC would beat Spurs cost me 3 units heading into game 7 when I had the Thunder to win it all bet +125 (had absolutely no faith in the East at that point) and skipped the single game wager (for all intents and purposes, it was like a one game ML loss ish on my -3.5 OKC). Injuries to multiple key players really ended up hampering the Thunder by the end.. I’ll need to absolutely take note of that. When “depth” isn’t playing in the game, then that can’t possibly be a reason to like that team anymore.

Fifth was game 2 of the Spurs in the finals. When I thought this was the first absolute must win spot - and I liked them -6 ATS. I bet 2 units on the spread, half a unit on the first half, and placed 2 units plus money for them to win the championship going into that game. Essentially 4.5 units of exposure, but 2 of them would’ve still been pending after the game. I could not believe the Spurs got punched in the jaw again in game 2. Box score showed us that the two teams are way more evenly matched than I thought and game 1 wasn’t a complete fluke. This bet.. this one sets up my game 5 bet here.

Bc now.. my sixth of my “most confident” plays this playoffs. Although, I prob shouldn’t even count #4 bc I only bet 2 units after getting shy. So, Knicks game 1 vs Cavs lucky win, OKC game 2 vs Spurs nice win, game 2 NY vs Cle nice pick, Thunder game 5 vs Spurs another nice pick - but only bet 2 units and should it count as a “most confident” play..? And then the Spurs game 2 vs NY, I was wrong there. A chance to improve to 5-1 in these moments..

I do not believe what could be the most entertaining NBA finals in many years - and if we go to 6 or 7, maybe ever - will be over in 5 games by the underdogs. Spurs are a good home team .. I don’t think they start 0-3 at home against an inferior team. I know calling the Knicks here “inferior” is just plain wrong at this point.. but what I mean is a -195 to -200 series favorite going into the series, from the stronger conference and healthy.. I don’t think they get hit so hard they go 0-3 at home. People would talk about that .. forever. Like does Wemby put too much pressure on himself? Can the young team even win at home? They’re appx -5 to -5.5 here and I just think the Spurs are up double digits sometime in the 4th quarter.. and this time they happen to hang onto it and win by 7 to 15. If Knicks have any “relax” in them at all.. this is also the kind of spot Spurs could win by 20 (see game 6 vs OKC in the WCF).

So, now the only question was how do I execute the wager? Bc I still have Spurs +2.5 games in the series placed before game 3 for 3 units. If Spurs go on to cover here, I just took a 2-0 and made it 1-0, but much harder to get there and with more risk. I also have Spurs to win it all for 2 units placed after game 2. So… do those count towards other bets in my maximum unit exposure? Finals one for sure.. the +2.5 should count for at least half; ok, let’s say 1.5 units worth of exposure and 0.5 for the finals bet.. so that means with my 6 unit maximum (when split between plays; I previously said 2, but 3 also counts I suppose).. I’m betting ATS for 4 units Saturday to bring this to my third ~6 units of exposure in one game (debatably more) play. First being Knicks ML game 1 vs Cle (lucky win, but they ironically would’ve covered the -7.5 in OT) and second being Thunder game 2 ML (they would’ve also covered ATS -7.5, winning by 9). This will be my third. First two certainly kept it interesting (had I been on OKC ATS, it would’ve been even more so).

I actually predict - right here, right now - we still see a game 7 in this series. +400 for Spurs to win, down 3-1, is not a good enough price imo for me to add more there.. but think on this. You know I like Spurs game 5, that’s clear by my wagers. Then you have all of America betting the Knicks to win in six and you have the trappiest NY -2 or -3 you’ll ever see.. no, you know what? It’ll be NY -1 or -1.5 bc Vegas will *want* you to bet NY. I know - can you believe it, I’m picking against what would be a beautiful fairy tail and backing these 22 year olds and a 7’5” alien instead.. game 7, at that point idk. Either Spurs win by 20 or it comes down to the wire and prob would lean Knicks in that case - I guess we’ll cross that bridge when/if it comes. But in NY.. Spurs controlled and won game 3, game 4 - they were up 29. We don’t talk about the other part bc once quicksand starts, it’s hard for a young person to stop that and the coach didn’t help.. so.. Spurs proved they can win in NY.

Anyway - I’m predicting right here, right now that Spurs win games 5 & 6. If Spurs can’t cover in game 5, I’ll feel less confident about that game 6.. but with a little momentum.. going back to NY where the collapse happened…

I’m predicting that this series isn’t over just yet..