Home Forums Thread Like Summary - FREAK's NFL Teasers

I'll be tracking my teasers in a season long thread instead of a weekly post in Bet The House.

These have been historically $$$$

I'll move my Bet The House post here and give commentary.

Well here we are week 18 of the regular season of the NFL.

Always a fun week to try to handicap the games, some meaningful, most not. So you get a hybrid of regular season play and exhibition of sorts. There's a lot of money on the line for several players including a whopping 6 million for Geno Smith. He has 3 separate $2 million dollar incentives in play for the final week. I think he has something to play for!

With it being week 18, I honed in on games that had some kind of meaning to playoffs whether it be seeding or just holding on to hope to make it.

CIN +7.5 - I've been riding the hot hand and while they are a long shot to make it, anything is possible. I don't think KC lies down for DEN. KC +20.5 very intriguing but not used. CIN will look to atone for a loss prior in the season and if BAL does as expected earlier in the day, I think we see the CIN line go way higher than -2.5 as PIT will rest players, they won't have anything truly to play for.

ATL +2.5 - Do you think they lose to CAR to end the season. Granted they need a miracle to see TB lose to NO but I think the home squad will give an A game effort regardless.

MN +13 - Seeing DET -3 tells me the oddsmakers see this as a PK em on a neutral field or at the worst DET -1 to MN -1. All the injuires on the DET D is going to be the difference here. I like MN +3 why wouldn't I like them at +13?

Grab this early, don't wait as it won't be there. When BAL jumps out to their big lead, the CIN line should go up and +7.5 is great value.

After week 7 I stood at a miserable 3-4 -220 and from that point on I've gone 9-1 +720 and that doesn't even include the missing post which was a winner.

Looking to close out the regular season a winner. I hope that you've enjoyed the read, made some money, got a few laughs and maybe perhaps learned something.

Enjoy week 18 and may all your teasers be winners!

Week 2

Three Team Ten Point Teaser

NO +16 - I think the current line is an over reaction to what took place last week with Dallas winning at Cleveland. I watched both games last week. Carolina is still really bad even with all the upgrades. Dallas took advantage of a weak Cleveland team. Until Cleveland moves on from Watson he will continue to be there albatross. He has robbed Cleveland of not only money but has set this franchise back for a long time. I'll take my chances of not getting beat by three scores.

TB +17.5 - Mayfield coming off his likely career best game, is it a sign for more to come? Week 1 Campbell played tight and didn't take as many chances as he did last year. Granted it's only one week but there was a massive change in philosophy. I think this may be a lot closer than the current 7.5 line and will gladly add ten to it.

LAR +11 - Ask yourself just one question. Who could AZ beat by 12 points? Would the Rams name come up? To even see AZ favored in this game is a gift to add ten to it.

Good Luck

Week 11

Got a real doozy of one for you today............

BAL +7 - Typically very close games in this series and I trust Jackson way more than I do Wilson. While I respect what Pittsburgh has done so far this season, I like what Baltimore has done a lot more. Granted they appear to leak oil in the fourth quarter but this is such a bitter rivalry I see a tight game and don't see Pittsburgh winning by more than 7 if they do somehow win.

KC +12 - Mahomes as a dog, the Chiefs as a dog, Reid as a dog........ I get why Buffalo is favored, hot team, home field, but we haven't seen the best out of Chiefs so far this season. We'll see if they put it all together in a statement game for both teams. KC defense is going to cause issues for Bills OL. May see a lot of see Josh run in this one but it's likely going to the team with the ball last that wins.

SF +3.5 I'll take the triple cross over of 3, 0 and 3 on the other side. I can't see the Seahawks hanging with the 49ers offense. Smith is no slouch but this team is in disarray and running into a physical team like the 49ers won't help.

It's not often you get three of the leagues best teams getting points like this and at this point of the season this is likely one of the strongest plays to date. You know what to do.

Nice hit!

Wow I missed this post. Won't miss it again. Nice hit.

Good looking teaser...bol Freak!

Good Luck My Friend!!!

Pretty spot on except IND was 8 points but still a one score game. Arizona won big and KC while needing OT did what they do, win.........

5-4 -20

Winner

6-4 +80

PIT and AZ won SU as predicted. SF didn't cover the game spread but won the game. It didn't hurt to have the 3.5 cushion.

Thanks, Freak! I’ve followed them all, great job!

good year!

Week 12

Pretty boring schedule this week, there really isn't a game outside of AZ/SEA that has truly peaked my interest.

KC -.5 - KC won't exert a lot here but will do enough to get the win. Thought about CAR +20.5 but they just as easily can be blown out.

MIA +3 - this is more of an anti NE play than anything else. MIA has been a house of horrors over the years for them and I see a potential blowout here. Why not take the +3?

AZ +10 - I've been bullish on AZ this year and it's paid off. Coming off a bye and granted it's a place that they haven't had much success at... however SEA coming off a physical SF game and upset win. Looking for the emotional let down here as well. I like AZ chances of winning SU but +10 should do the trick.

Until next week, have a great Thanksgiving holiday!

Winner 9-4 +330

As easy as it gets and six straight winners...........

Here we go the 2024-2025 NFL Playoffs...............

Obviously the amount of games is very limited and I'll be looking for what I feel is extreme value to make the play worthwhile.

I feel like the Ohio State Buckeyes after losing to Michigan after losing in week 18 and I have more to prove............

HOU +13 - In a game the total has dropped from 44 to 41.5 this would lead you to believe that points will be an ultimate premium. A lot of metrics go against HOU here but the Chargers beat the following teams by 13 points or more this past season: CAR, NO, CLV, NEP and LVR What do all of these teams have in common? They are all super bad football teams.

Who did HOU lose to by more than 13 this season: MN and BAL. What do those teams have in common? They are in the playoffs and really damn good teams.

Do you place the LAC in the level of MN and BAL or more towards the other 5 teams? I would put them closer to the bad 5 teams than I would to the two teams listed. I'm not saying they are a bad team but their schedule was super easy. 29 out of 32 toughest. I'll take the 13 and take my chances.

BAL +1/2 - A team playing really well vs a team playing extremely bad. I'll deserve to lose this if BAL loses this game SU.

MN +8 - IN LA or at the now neutral field in AZ, MN is by far the superior team in this game. The only concern I have with this is how MN responds to the ass whipping they took at Detroit a week ago. Will they have the dead cat game or will they respond bigly. In either event I don't think the LAR can beat this team by 9 or more even if spotted a 7-0 lead.

Don't over bet because it's the playoffs, remember there will be games next week and future opportunities.

I'll be pulling for KC to three peat, I have heavy tickets on them from before the start of the season and earlier on when they escaped with wins and people fell in love with BUF, BAL, PHI........

Good luck and I'll meet you at the cashiers cage cashing those tickets!