Texas VS Purdue

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas' last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas' last 7 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas' last 6 games played in March.
Texas is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games played on a Thursday.
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Purdue's last 12 games.
Purdue is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


Iowa VS Nebraska

Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Nebraska.
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Nebraska.
Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Iowa is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games played on a Thursday.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games.
Nebraska is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Nebraska's last 15 games against Iowa.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.


Arkansas VS Arizona

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arkansas' last 11 games.
Arkansas is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas' last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games played in March.
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games.
Arizona is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


Illinois VS Houston

Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois' last 12 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Illinois is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games played in March.
Illinois is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games played on a Thursday.
Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games.
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.

Sweet 16 Trends

• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of 5 points or more are 20-11 SU but just 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since 2017.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Purdue, Michigan, Duke, Arizona

• Sweet 16 favorites of 8-points or more are on a 29-9-3 Under (76.3%) the total run, allowing 63.4 PPG.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Alabama-Michigan

• Sweet 16 #1 and #2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 45-17 SU and 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 11 seasons.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, Michigan, Iowa State

• Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds. However, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) in that role since 2011.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Texas

• The popular #1-#4 matchup has seen #1’s win most often lately, 15-4 SU in the last 19, but they are just 1-6 ATS (14.3%) in the last seven.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST ATS Michigan, Arizona

• Over the last 11 years, there have been 26 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 19-7 (73.1%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Michigan State-Connecticut, Iowa-Nebraska

• Teams seeded in the #5-#9 range and a “surprise Sweet 16 team” are dangerous small underdogs of +7.5 points or fewer vs. better-seeded teams in this round, 24-33 SU and 31-22-4 ATS (58.5%) since 2000.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: St Johns

• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 42-30-1 ATS (58.3%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: As of Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET, public bettors were favoring Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Connecticut, and Tennessee

Top Head-to-Head Trends for the Sweet 16 Round

(615) IOWA vs (616) NEBRASKA
* Favorites are on runs of 4-1 ATS and 12-7 ATS in the recent history of the Iowa-Nebraska rivalry

(617) TEXAS vs (618) PURDUE
* The most recent three meetings between Texas and Purdue all went Over the total, the most recent a 81-71 decision in the 2022 NCAA tournament

(621) ST. JOHN’S vs (622) DUKE
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between St. John’s and Duke. However, the most recent clash in 2019 was the lone Under

(623) MICHIGAN STATE vs (624) CONNECTICUT
* The last five meetings between Michigan State and Connecticut, all neutral court contests, went Under the total by an average of 12.6 PPG