Texas VS Purdue

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas' last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas' last 7 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas' last 6 games played in March.
Texas is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games played on a Thursday.
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Purdue's last 12 games.
Purdue is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


Iowa VS Nebraska

Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Nebraska.
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Nebraska.
Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Iowa is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games played on a Thursday.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games.
Nebraska is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Nebraska's last 15 games against Iowa.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.


Arkansas VS Arizona

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arkansas' last 11 games.
Arkansas is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas' last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games played in March.
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games.
Arizona is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.


Illinois VS Houston

Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois' last 12 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
Illinois is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games played in March.
Illinois is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games played on a Thursday.
Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games.
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.

New York VS Charlotte

New York is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
New York is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
New York is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games against Charlotte.
New York is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games against Charlotte.
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Charlotte's last 12 games.
Charlotte is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games against New York.

Sacramento VS Orlando

Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Sacramento is 7-13 SU in its last 20 games.
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Orlando.
Sacramento is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games against Orlando.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games.
Orlando is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Orlando's last 13 games against Sacramento.
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento.

Minnesota VS Florida

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games.
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games against Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Minnesota's last 19 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Florida's last 10 games against Minnesota.
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Florida is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.


Columbus VS Montreal

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus' last 7 games.
Columbus is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Columbus is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games against Montreal.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus' last 5 games on the road.
Montreal is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
Montreal is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.


Dallas VS New York

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 6 games.
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas' last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders' last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders' last 6 games against Dallas.
NY Islanders is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Islanders' last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas.


Pittsburgh VS Ottawa

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games.
Pittsburgh is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
Pittsburgh is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against Ottawa.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games.
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.


Chicago VS Philadelphia

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games.
Chicago is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
Chicago is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games against Philadelphia.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games.
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games against Chicago.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 10 games at home.


Seattle VS Tampa Bay

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games.
Seattle is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
Seattle is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against Tampa Bay.
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Tampa Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.


New Jersey VS Nashville

The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games.
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Nashville.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nashville's last 15 games.
Nashville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games against New Jersey.
Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.


San Jose VS St. Louis

San Jose is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
San Jose is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games against St. Louis.
San Jose is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road.
San Jose is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against St. Louis.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis' last 6 games.
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis' last 6 games against San Jose.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis' last 9 games at home.


Colorado VS Winnipeg

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games.
Colorado is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Winnipeg.
Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games against Colorado.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 10 games at home.
Winnipeg is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado.


Anaheim VS Calgary

Anaheim is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Anaheim is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games against Calgary.
Anaheim is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games.
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games against Anaheim.
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.


Washington VS Utah

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 7 games.
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Utah.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road.
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games.
Utah is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games against Washington.
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home.


Edmonton VS Vegas

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Edmonton's last 15 games.
Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games against Vegas.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games on the road.
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vegas.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vegas' last 6 games.
Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vegas' last 7 games at home.
Vegas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton.


Los Angeles VS Vancouver

Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Los Angeles is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against Vancouver.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles' last 12 games on the road.
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games.
Vancouver is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Vancouver's last 16 games against Los Angeles.
Vancouver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home.

Sweet 16 Trends

• Laying big points seems to be getting more and more risky in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of 5 points or more are 20-11 SU but just 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since 2017.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST Purdue, Michigan, Duke, Arizona

• Sweet 16 favorites of 8-points or more are on a 29-9-3 Under (76.3%) the total run, allowing 63.4 PPG.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Alabama-Michigan

• Sweet 16 #1 and #2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 45-17 SU and 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 11 seasons.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, Michigan, Iowa State

• Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds. However, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) in that role since 2011.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: Texas

• The popular #1-#4 matchup has seen #1’s win most often lately, 15-4 SU in the last 19, but they are just 1-6 ATS (14.3%) in the last seven.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: AGAINST ATS Michigan, Arizona

• Over the last 11 years, there have been 26 Sweet 16 games with totals of less than 138, and Under the total is 19-7 (73.1%).
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: UNDER the total in Michigan State-Connecticut, Iowa-Nebraska

• Teams seeded in the #5-#9 range and a “surprise Sweet 16 team” are dangerous small underdogs of +7.5 points or fewer vs. better-seeded teams in this round, 24-33 SU and 31-22-4 ATS (58.5%) since 2000.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: St Johns

• I mentioned earlier that bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, and I referenced the short prep window as the potential reason. In the Sweet 16, they have bounced back, going 42-30-1 ATS (58.3%) in moving opening lines since 2012.
Qualifying games for the 2026 Sweet 16: As of Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET, public bettors were favoring Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Connecticut, and Tennessee

Top Head-to-Head Trends for the Sweet 16 Round

(615) IOWA vs (616) NEBRASKA
* Favorites are on runs of 4-1 ATS and 12-7 ATS in the recent history of the Iowa-Nebraska rivalry

(617) TEXAS vs (618) PURDUE
* The most recent three meetings between Texas and Purdue all went Over the total, the most recent a 81-71 decision in the 2022 NCAA tournament

(621) ST. JOHN’S vs (622) DUKE
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between St. John’s and Duke. However, the most recent clash in 2019 was the lone Under

(623) MICHIGAN STATE vs (624) CONNECTICUT
* The last five meetings between Michigan State and Connecticut, all neutral court contests, went Under the total by an average of 12.6 PPG

NCAA Tournament
Thursday’s games
Purdue (-7.5) vs Texas (@ San Jose)
Purdue (29-8)
Purdue won its last six games.
Purdue has #9 eFG% in the country.
Boilers are top 10 rebounding team in country.

Purdue is 12-1 in non-conference games.
Boilers are 13-8 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Last four years, underdogs are 17-15 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

KenPom rating: 8
Tempo: 324
Experience: 17
Continuity: 5

Last 10 years, Purdue is 2-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.

Texas (21-14)
Texas won three games last week, by 2-8-6 points.
This is only second Sweet 16 for Longhorns since 2009.
Texas gets 23.7% of their points on foul line (#28)

Texas is 12-4 in non-conference games.
Longhorns are 9-11 vs teams in the top 50
Since 2015, #11-seeds are 4-6 SU/6-4 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

KenPom rating: 31
Tempo: 223
Experience: 4
Continuity: 123

In his career, Sean Miller is 4-4 in Sweet 16 games.

Nebraska (-1.5) vs Iowa (@ Houston)
Nebraska (28-6)
Nebraska is 6-2 in its last seven games.
Last week were Cornhuskers’ first-ever wins (2-8) in NCAA Tournament.
Nebraska is 16-5 vs conference foes this season.

50.7% of Nebraska’s shots are 3-pointers (#12).
Nebraska gets 41.2% of its points on 3’s (#13)
Last five years, #4-seeds are 7-4 ATS Sweet 16 games.
Coach Hoiberg went to college at Iowa State, a Hawkeye rival.

KenPom rating: 13
Tempo: 231
Experience: 27
Continuity: 185

Last week were Nebraska’s first-ever wins (2-8) in NCAA Tournament.

Iowa (23-12)
Iowa is 3-1 since the OT loss at Nebraska.
Last 10 games, Iowa star Stirtz has sat out a total of 3 minutes.
Iowa is #15 team in country at forcing turnovers.

Hawkeyes have #18 eFG% in the country.
Iowa is 13-10 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Iowa is 11-11 vs conference opponents.
Since 2011, #9-seeds are 4-0 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

KenPom rating: 22
Tempo: 361
Experience: 180
Continuity: 326

Home team won both Iowa-Nebraska games this year; the Nebraska win was in OT

Arizona (-7.5) vs Arkansas (@ San Jose)
Arizona (34-2)
Wildcats won their last 11 games (7-3 ATS last ten games).
Arizona has #1 eFG% defense in country.
Arizona has #44 eFG% offense in country.

Arizona is 15-0 in non-conference games.
Wildcats are 17-2 vs teams ranked in top 50
Last four years, #1-seeds are 4-9 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

KenPom rating: 2
Tempo: 65
Experience: 144
Continuity: 94

Under coach Lloyd, Arizona is 0-3 in Sweet 16 games.
Wildcats haven’t been to the Elite 8 since 2015.

Arkansas (28-8)
Razorbacks won their last seven games.
Arkansas is 11-3 in non-league games (losses by 3-9-9 points)
Razorbacks allowed 75+ points in their last 12 games.

Arkansas is 11-3 in non-league games (losses by 3-9-9 points)
Razorbacks are 9-8 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Opponents are shooting 54% inside arc (#275)

KenPom rating: 17
Tempo: 17
Experience: 140
Continuity: 92

Since 2021, Arkansas is 2-2 in Sweet 1 games.
Calipari is 9-3 in Sweet 16 games, but last win was in 2019.

Illinois @ Houston (-2.5) (@ Houston)
Illinois (24-8)
Illinois is 6-5 in its last 11 games (4/5 losses in OT).
Illini is the tallest team in the country.
Illini is 8-8 vs teams ranked in top 50 (2-5 last seven).

Illinois is 11-2 in non-conference games.
50.4% of Illinois’ shots are 3’s (#15)
38.8% of their points come on 3’s (#26)
Illini is shooting 35% on arc (#115)

KenPom rating: 6
Tempo: 276
Experience: 130
Continuity: 70

Illinois was in the Elite 8 two years ago.
This game isn’t in Houston’s gym, but it is in Houston; Illinois split its last four road games, with both losses in overtime.

Houston (30-6)
Cougars won seven of their last eight games.
Houston is 11-6 vs top 50 teams.
Houston is 14-1 in non-conference games (lost to Tennessee by 3)

Cougars force turnovers 20.7% of time (#14)
Houston is #26 team in country on offensive boards.
Since 2019, favorites are 6-3 ATS in #2-seed vs #3-seed Sweet 16 games

KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 351
Experience: 92
Continuity: 44

Last five years, Houston is 3-2 in Sweet 16 games.

Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends

(501) SACRAMENTO at (502) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won and covered all three meetings with Sacramento since the start of last year
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs SAC)

(503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) DETROIT
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Pelicans-Pistons non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-DET (o/u at 226.5)

(505) NEW YORK at (506) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Knicks-Hornets series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CHA (o/u at 222.5)

* NEW YORK is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS surge versus Charlotte since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+1.5 at CHA)