I'm back for the 2025-26 football season and looking to help you smash the books once again this year with some football teasers.
I started off slow last year but reeled off several winning weeks in a row to end way ahead last year and this year looking to get off to a big start.
So with no further ado let's get to Week 1 of the NFL............
First Play is a three team ten point teaser which you lay -130. My plays will be always either to win a unit or a unit to win x+
I literally just made the below play and will give some thoughts behind it next to the team.
9/7/25 1:00 PM NFL Lines Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins +11 (+1) --- QB Edge, WR Edge, first game on the road shouldn't prove to be a distraction as it would if this were the 7th or 8th game of the year. You have a healthy Miami team and I pushed it through key numbers.
9/7/25 1:00 PM NFL Lines Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders +12.5 (+2.5) -- Geno Smith vs Drake Maye advantage LV. Coaching advantage LV. Like Miami, first game on the road isn't that much of a distraction. Will be interested to see how Jeanty handles the NFL. I can't see a scenario where NE wins by double digits here. I think they are being given too much credit with that lofty 8.5 Win total this year.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (-6.5) -- Typically don't like crossing over but let's face it. Murray vs Rattler. Just like the first two games, the road shouldn't be an issue. I was going to use AZ as my Circa Survivor pick but even though NO is going to be a go against team all season, it is the Cardinals. I trust them more as dogs as I do favorites and if by some off chance NO wins, it's going to be a late FG..... This does have the potential to be a 10+ win by AZ but I played it safe taking north of a FG.
I mentioned Circa Survivor, I might as well cover that here as well. For week 1 from the get go, I shaded Denver as the pick. As we got closer, I entertained, PHI and AZ. I had an uneasy feeling about PHI in a division game, they are always close and it was just that. I mentioned about AZ even though I used them in the teaser. I ended back on Denver. I only had them listed for week 16 and wouldn't use them anywhere else, so week 1 we ride with the Broncos.
One thing I like in these kind of topics is interaction, it's not meant for your picks, but to cheer on the picks here and give props when due and shade when deserved........
Let's have a big season and get it started off on a winning note!
What I expected to happen in the Raiders game went according to plan. Sure at one point they were behind but experience and coaching did what I expected. Jeanty didn't have the breakout game but had the ball a lot 19 carries for only 38 but more importantly he had a TD. If you look at the stats TOP was 30 seconds advantage to NE. They ran 6 more plays but had 53 less overall total yards. Both teams penalized 9 times and each had 1 turnover. It came down to the small things and that's how the Raiders won this SU!
Arizona in my eyes deserved to lose. I will say NO backers on the spread 6.5 were screwed to some extent. Arizona up 20-10 attempts a FG but it was blocked. Instead of the score going to 23-10 it stayed 20-10. New Orleans came down and rather than having to go for a TD down 23-10 they settled for a FG at the Arizona 5 to make it what the final ended up 20-13.
NO had more first downs, ran more plays, had more total yards, had more passing yards, were only out rushed by 39 yards. Had 4 more penalties (13) and more penalty yards (35) than Arizona. Neither team had a turnover. All of this took place with NO having the ball over 7.5 minutes less.
Did I mention AZ had one sack in the game. NO had FIVE, yes FIVE !!!!
If I showed you stats and didn't tell you which team was which, I'd think the majority would think NO won or at least covered.
I mentioned how I thought AZ had the huge QB edge and on paper before the game there was no doubt about it, however I was impressed with Rattler and he out played Murray.
This is how close it was........ Arizona escaped..........
Well now it's time to unload..........
If you watched the Miami game, you had to be asking yourself this simple question.......... Why isn't Miami prepared? This team looked like they just took the field for the first time ever. They made Daniel Jones look like HOF QB. Jones was 22/29 for 272 yards and 1 TD pass.
What did Tua do? Oh yes he had 1 TD pass, it was 30-0 when he had it. He was 14 of 23 with 2 interceptions and a fumble. He threw for a grand total of 114 yards. 114 yards! Indy rushed for 156 yards.......
Total yards 418-211 in favor of Indy. Indy ran 70 plays to only 46 for Miami. They had the ball for nearly 39 minutes of the game. Each team had the ball a total of only 7 possessions....... yes you read that right 7 which is ultra below a normal average.
There were too many errors, too many little things missed that added up huge for Indy. They couldn't cover receivers, they couldn't tackle, they looked so out of sorts, I put this all on the coach. Yes players make the plays or don't make them, but this was such a bad overall performance all around. Losing 33-8 isn't a game with effort put into it and that starts with the coach. He should feel on the hot seat already, he hasn't proven to be the right guy for Miami or anyone for that fact. I don't say this because they cost us the win, it was literally a disaster.
9/14/25 1:02 PM NFL Lines New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Spread Miami Dolphins +8.5 (-1.5) 9/14/25 1:02 PM NFL Lines Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Spread Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-11.5) 9/14/25 4:25 PM NFL Lines Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs Spread Kansas City Chiefs +11 (+1)
I'm going back to the well with the Dolphins and this is more of a play against New England being able to A. Win the game and B if they do to win by nearly double digits on the road. New England is a team that I believe is way over valued. To see them projected over 8.5 wins for this season to me is someone that smoked took much green leaf when setting that ridiculous number. The coach is improved from the last, but the roster that's another story. Maybe in a few seasons they will be what people think they'll be this season. I'm just not sold and again like last week, Miami has the better QB and WR core, it's just a matter of them showing up especially at the QB position. In Tua we trust perhaps for the last time.
Baltimore this is an easy one. They outclass Cleveland at every level from the field to the front office. Nothing anyone can tell me would change my mind and neither should it change yours. 11.5 in a division match up is a big number but it's that big for a reason and Cleveland didn't beat a Bengals team held to 7 yards in the second half last week. That won't happen today and Baltimore will be victorious.
KC +11 -- I'm not saying that they didn't look bad in Brazil because they did. That was an odd situation to open the season and they are a different animal at home. Am I looking for revenge from the Super Bowl........ NO......... that was last season and this year is a completely different one. I do see a vast improvement in game play and game management from KC this go round. They get a few days of extra rest and being at home, I just don't see a blow out loss at home. That's what it will take to not cover with +11.
Thanks for reading and if tailing, let's make that $$$$...............
Miami once again fell behind early 12-0 but lead 27-23 in the fourth but gave up a KO Return for TD and a FG and lost 33-27. I didn't think NE would win in Miami and they did but I also believed if they did win they wouldn't cover 8.5 and they didn't. There really needs to be a long look at the MIA organization because it's broken. Once again MIA made the opposing QB look like an MVP and in Tua we don't trust. It's going to be a long season in Miami they will easily be double digit dogs at BUF on Thursday night. Let me pencil in MIA as 0-3 and out of the playoff race. Coach to get fired and they will draft a QB next draft. They really have no choice.
Baltimore did exactly what I thought they would do.
KC had moments of hope the dagger was the INT off of Kelce hands in the end zone. KC is 0-2 and that doesn't bode well for any team. Fortunately for them they are one of the rare teams that can turn it around. They get to go on the road to play an improved NYG team. It won't be easy.
Survivor pick in AZ did just that blowing a 27-9 lead and nearly lost the game SU.
At one point on the Colts broadcast they gave a highlight of AZ going up 27-9 and the announcer said AZ is one of those under the radar teams. I laughed and thought, you do realize they played NO/CAR. Nearly every team with a pulse would likely go 2-0 with that opener. They get another wounded team in SF next week. Talk about catching breaks but SF won't be an easy place for AZ to win at.
I'm not done yet........... I had a plan going into today and part 1 came through so now it's time to go do part 2.
9/14/25 8:25 PM NFL Lines Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Spread Atlanta Falcons +13 (+3) 9/15/25 7:00 PM NFL Lines Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Spread Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5 (+2.5) 9/15/25 10:00 PM NFL Lines Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Spread Las Vegas Raiders +13.5 (+3.5)
As long as the first play won, I was coming back with this play. Let me break it down a little....
ATL +13 While MN rallied to beat CHI last week, I just can't see JJM and MN winning by 14 in this one. I follow Penix and love his never ending desire to win. He is going to end up being a very special QB. ATL is one of my Bad Man plays at +3.5 and I think they can win SU so why wouldn't I like them at +13.
TB +12.5 This goes against my Bad Man play of HOU -2.5 but I see a game where it's close throughout and HOU pulls it out late. They are not 13 better than TB. As long as Baker doesn't have silly TO they easily cover and I'd hate to see it but win SU. We shall see how this plays out.
LVR +13.5 - These teams hate one another and play historically close games. This one should be no different. I left LVR +3.5 off my Bad Man card but they were my 6th pick. I wouldn't be too surprised to see an upset here.
Time is short so no big write ups like earlier.
See you at the cashier cage and let's get that $$$$.........
Atlanta Falcons +13 (+3) 9/15/25 7:00 PM NFL Lines Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Spread Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5 (+2.5) 9/15/25 10:00 PM NFL Lines Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders Spread Las Vegas Raiders +13.5 (+3.5)
The play above was a winner with only Las Vegas needing the points and other two teams won SU.
I said:
ATL is one of my Bad Man plays at +3.5 and I think they can win SU so why wouldn't I like them at +13.5 As long as Baker doesn't have silly TO they easily cover and I'd hate to see it but win SU. LVR +13.5 - These teams hate one another and play historically close games.
The first two statements were spot on. The Raiders played out of sync but the Chargers couldn't complete a big enough knock out to beat us.
So for those of you of little faith after week one that jumped off the train and never said a word then and certainly didn't say a word in week 2. Hell NO ONE said a word to me in week 2 of which is irritating because I spend the time to make you $ and I hear wait............ CRICKETS.
No need for me to say any more as it falls on deaf ears.................
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-11.5) Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams +13.5 (+3.5) Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals +12.5 (+2.5)
Looking to make it a trifecta of winners in a row.............
Normally don't give too much thought to Thursday games because you have to tie up plays for a few days and things can happen between now and then.
I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get a leg up however.
If the Bills don't beat Miami by 2 or more, let's face it, I deserve to lose. I'm advocating for the Miami coach to be fired and for them to draft a QB in the first round next year and I'm not a MIA fan. This team has talent but is grossly incompetent and it starts with ownership all the way down to the QB. Allen and company should put a spanking on these clowns. I posted an interesting trend set in the Statistical Advantage thread, go check it out.
The Rams will provide more of a test to PHI than KC did because they actually have an offensive line that can protect the QB. They have something to prove at the same time and while PHI is tough at home and playing really well to start the season, do you think they blow out the Rams by 14 or more? I don't and I'm not saying the Rams will win SU but I'm thinking this can go deep into the fourth undecided who the winner will be. I might be 100% wrong on that but I'm seeing a tight game.
Cardinals - This will be interesting to see how they fare within the division. They typically play SF tight and there hasn't been a lot of blowout type games in the series as of late. A two TD +.5 point start I'll take within the NFC West. It is tightly competitive and these teams know each other very very well.
Cliff notes version due to game time in a few hours..........
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-11.5) Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams +13.5 (+3.5) Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals +12.5 (+2.5)
Winner
Record 3-1 +170
Let's look back at key comments made.......... Do you think they blow out the Rams by 14 or more? I don't and I'm not saying the Rams will win SU but I'm thinking this can go deep into the fourth undecided who the winner will be. I might be 100% wrong on that but I'm seeing a tight game.
Exactly what took place and the Rams should've won the game SU
They typically play SF tight and there hasn't been a lot of blowout type games in the series as of late. A two TD +.5 point start I'll take within the NFC West. It is tightly competitive and these teams know each other very very well.
Another game that went to the final play of the game. AZ should have never lost this game.
No need to talk about Buffalo from Thursday night, they did what needed to be done and that's win.
I'll say this, I hate and I mean absolutely hate doing a thread like this with ZERO interaction. It's why I and many others don't do it. If you have your head stuck up the paid professionals asses all the time, you miss out on a topic like this or L10's picks not to mention the countless others that are posting in individual sport topics and post winners and give great insight into the games.
I mean it's simple for me, I can easily just stop and keep on chugging on my own as I'm now without posting. It will save me time and energy.
I'm not looking for ass kissing, never have, never will but it's good to be acknowledged and recognized for not only the effort but the winners!
To think I don't charge for this.......... that gives me an idea......... hmmmmm........
9/28/25 10:02 AM NFL Lines Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions Spread Detroit Lions 0 (-10) 9/28/25 1:05 PM NFL Lines Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams Spread Indianapolis Colts +13.5 (+3.5) 9/28/25 1:25 PM NFL Lines Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Spread Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+2.5)
I looked at many different options for this week and normally I would post on Sunday but I think it's a good idea to lock this in early.
Detroit PK - All you need is a win by the Lions at home vs the Browns. Yes, I'm fully aware of what they did at HOME vs the Packers but let's address that for a moment. GB had the ball over 8.5 more minutes, they killed themselves with untimely penalties, 14 to be exact for 75 yards. Do you think if the Browns put up the same amount of total yards (221) at Detroit they stand a chance to win SU? GB had their bad game of the early season and they allowed CLV to hang around and they deserved to lose. It wasn't that CLV went crazy and scored 40 points, they had 13 all in the fourth qtr. I wouldn't even touch them at +20 as tempting as it sounds......... Detroit makes the most sense all around here.
IND +13.5.... Yes IND travels out west for a road game, but if you've ever paid attention to the crowds at LAC/LAR games, a huge amount is for the road team and not a big HF advantage. This game is basically a toss up between what I think are two even teams. A true neutral field has them at PK or -1 either way. Let's add into the devastating way LAR lost. Up 26-7 and they gave up 26 points in a row to lose 33-26. What makes this worse is they should've won. That blocked FG/Scoop and Score is really major blow to the psyche of the team. There will be a lingering effect. It's typically always negative and rarely positive.
Daniel Jones I'll give him credit, he has played like an MVP or at least Comeback Player of the Year, maybe both........ If Taylor can make his way to find room to run, I can see IND winning SU. I'll gladly take the 13.5 that will likely drop by Sunday.
KC +12.5 - Is BAL 13 points better than KC on the road? If your answer is NO, then this is an easy one. It's hard to fathom one of these teams will be 1-3 after this game barring a tie. Who needs the game more? KC does. BAL has a much easier path to win the AFC North than KC to win the AFC West right now. Unless something out of the norm happens, this will be a tight game in the 4th quarter. It might be even a last possession type game. These teams do not blow each other out and I'll take Mahomes and company plus the generous 12.5.........
Solid. I agree about the Browns I had the Browns +7.5 and quit watching the game as it looked to be ending at 10-0 came back to see they won the game somehow. That was a fluke. I think this could also be a 3 team parley play for me, lions ML only and the other 2 with the points and Possibly ML on those 2 as well especially KC. Chiefs currently paying even money on +2.5 (possibly buy to 3 for FG insurance) . Detroit ML and the other 2 with points pays out +345...and it wouldn't really be all that much of a shocker to see the colts and KC win outright as well. I'm sure the Rams will be in beast mode bounce back after that huge let down ending but I'm not sure they are going to beat the Colts regardless.
CHA CHING!!! Great Job FREAK as another winner cashes the ticket on these teasers. EZ EZ EZ. Lions did the 10 number without it, KC did the 2.5 number without it, the Colts were right there the whole way. It takes a little more risk having to have 3 teams happen for a win and just 1 no show blows the whole thing. All teams showed up and played well and made this look like a pure gift.
Detroit Lions 0 (-10) Indianapolis Colts +13.5 (+3.5) Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+2.5)
Winner
Record 4-1 +270
Let's take a look back at the write ups:
Detroit PK - All you need is a win by the Lions at home vs the Browns. Do you think if the Browns put up the same amount of total yards (221) at Detroit they stand a chance to win SU? I wouldn't even touch them at +20 as tempting as it sounds......... Detroit makes the most sense all around here.
Detroit not only won but that +20 I wouldn't touch, they covered that 34-10. Cleveland did improve on that 221 total they had against Green Bay they ended up with 249 yards on 65 plays. Would it surprise you if I told you Detroit only had 277 yards and had the ball 3.5 minutes less. Detroit actually had less passing yards, less overall plays and one less possession than Cleveland and yet won in a rout. Stats can be deceiving...............
IND +13.5.... This game is basically a toss up between what I think are two even teams. A true neutral field has them at PK or -1 either way.
Actually needed the points to get this one home and it never should have come to that. The dropped ball heading into the end zone and the holding call that brought back Taylor's big TD run was the difference. All courtesy of Adonai Mitchell. This cost them from taking a 17-13 lead in the early stages of the third and later with 225 left in the game it kept them from going up 27-20. That my friends is the difference of winning and losing.
Now let's be real who saw a 88 yard TD pass coming for the Rams to take the lead 27-20 and cover the spread. Two crazy plays in Rams games back to back weeks. Makes you pause for a second due to the spread implications in both games.
Not a conspiracy person but it does seem a bit odd..........
KC +12.5 - Is BAL 13 points better than KC on the road? Unless something out of the norm happens, this will be a tight game in the 4th quarter. It might be even a last possession type game. These teams do not blow each other out and I'll take Mahomes and company plus the generous 12.5.........
Well something out of the norm did happen because this was a blow out. If I told you both teams had the ball 10 times each and there was only 22 total yards difference would you think a team lost by 17? The difference in this game was KC ran 17 more plays and had the ball 9.5 minutes more with zero turnovers which gave them +2 for the game. Best game of the season for the KC offense but perhaps a lot of that had to do with the Baltimore defense. Even though KC defense gave up an average of 6.8 YPP while KC was at 5.5. Again another one of those games where the stats are misleading.
I've been forgetting to post my Circa Survivor selections but I'm still alive after 4 weeks. Had Houston today which was likely the best spot of the year to use them. So far I've used in order Denver, Arizona, Seattle and Houston. Not exactly a who's who of teams. Week 5 will present a challenge as byes come into play and you are going to be forced to use some better teams. We shall see where things shake out.
Just a few off the cuff comments, I absolutely hate ties. They need to have a winner. Play a second overtime with no clock and have a winner. That is so dissatisfying.
Chargers and Packers burned a lot of 6 pt teasers today. Tomorrow the popular teaser will be Jets with Broncos. I guess we are going to see if the Dolphin slide continues and how well the Bengals rebound after that huge loss in Minnesota. Of which was totally diminished with the Steelers beating the Vikings today.
It's on to next..............and until later in the week.........
I'll meet you at the cashiers cage as we cashed another ticket.
This is a play with lines coming from Fan Duel.........
SF +18.5 DEN +14.5 DET -1/2
Let me break it down some:
SF +18.5 - Line went from -3.5 touched -9 and dipped to current -8.5 for the Rams. Mac Jones has out played Purdy as QB so in my eyes, this isn't a negative. Two WR's out, yes that's a problem but are they really worth 5 to 6 points because I give a 1/2 point upgrade at the QB spot and maybe it could be 1. Bosa out hurts. So how do they stay competitive. Use Christian in the passing game. Short passes, screens and of course running. If he is 100% they can burn a lot of clock, shorten the game and stay within the 8.5. Rams only beat the lowly Titans by 8 or more and this is a rivalry game within the division. I'll take my chances with the 18.5. I don't see this as the Lions vs Browns scenario last week at all.
DEN +14.5 - Thanks to Fan Duel they are giving an extra point still and I'll gladly take it to push the teaser over two full scores. Sooner or later the real Eagles will show up or perhaps this is the real Eagles. As for the upstart Broncos they have played well outside of the Chargers loss and even then they were in it til late. Lots of rushing in this game and if the Broncos defense travels of which I think it does, this shouldn't be a concern. Now with that said, anything is possible and we might get a sweat if the Eagles put it all together.
DET - 1/2 - If you thought the Browns were bad with a somewhat semblance of a defense, what would you say the Bengals defense is? Not to mention what offense do they have? I think the Bengals have checked out and are already on vacation mode. What do they have to play for right now? Pride? They won't make the playoffs, they might as well continue to lose and get a top draft pick to help fix one of many holes they have. They are and have been over rated because of Burrow. Even if he was playing Lions would be favored by at least 5.5 to 6 points if not more. All I need is the best team to win. It's a short road trip and one that the Lions should and will win running away.
As for Circa Survivor............ I have it narrowed down to two teams this week. Initially it was the Colts all the way. However I keep having flashbacks of the Raiders winning on Thanksgiving at Dallas and costing me at least a million dollars as my other remaining picks all won. So the thought process is, do I save them for a much more hapless team such as TN in week 8 rather than a team that does have a pulse.
Now I'm leaning towards Buffalo who I've saved and only have them penciled in one more time this season. Oddly enough week 8 at Carolina. So you see where my thinking is here. BUF at home now vs on the road and IND vs a weaker team that same week instead of a team that can surprise this weekend.
While you have to think in terms of I need to go 1-0 this week, you still want to position yourself in having better teams down the road than being stuck with teams that are marginal at best.
I've used in no order - AZ, DEN, HOU and SEA.........
BUF at home for the third week in a row and 4th out of 5 to start the season........ or a team coming home after two road games and the last a west coast trip...........
These are things you need to think about when handicapping. I try to use this as a money making venture for you with the picks but to show you some out of the box handicapping thinking that will help you become a better handicapper.
I'm in on the 2 today. Missed the 49ers game grabbed Vikings +7 early game today from -3 and have Broncos only at +14. with the lions at PK Hope your streak continues!
SF +18.5 - Mac Jones has out played Purdy as QB so in my eyes, this isn't a negative. So how do they stay competitive. Use Christian in the passing game. Short passes, screens and of course running. If he is 100% they can burn a lot of clock, shorten the game and stay within the 8.5. Rams only beat the lowly Titans by 8 or more and this is a rivalry game within the division. I'll take my chances with the 18.5. I don't see this as the Lions vs Browns scenario last week at all.
Mac Jones impressed and never crumbled under pressure. They used Christian just as I thought they would. 22 carries and had 8 receptions for 82 yards which was second highest on the team in both receptions and yards. He was targeted 9 times so I would say they used him effectively. They held the ball for over 40 minutes to the Rams 26. Even with all of this, they had to go to OT to win the game. This was NEVER in doubt. It certainly wasn't a Lions vs Browns rout which many predicted.
DEN +14.5 - Sooner or later the real Eagles will show up or perhaps this is the real Eagles. As for the upstart Broncos they have played well outside of the Chargers loss and even then they were in it til late. Lots of rushing in this game and if the Broncos defense travels of which I think it does, this shouldn't be a concern. Now with that said, anything is possible and we might get a sweat if the Eagles put it all together.
The Eagles were consistent with how they've played all season. Out of the gate fast and a disappearing act in the second half. I'm thinking that this is the real Eagles for now. Once they put together a really solid 60 minutes that will likely change their season. Until then, they will continue to play with fire and they finally got burned. Denver ran the ball 29 times for 130 yards. That ended up giving them 8.5 more minutes in time of possession. Denver's defense shaky in the first half gave us a pause of concern down 17-3 at the end of three but even then we were never behind in this game with the 14.5. A nice SU win for the Broncos as the defense showed up bigly in the second half.
DET - 1/2 - If you thought the Browns were bad with a somewhat semblance of a defense, what would you say the Bengals defense is? I think the Bengals have checked out and are already on vacation mode. What do they have to play for right now? Pride? They won't make the playoffs, they might as well continue to lose and get a top draft pick to help fix one of many holes they have. All I need is the best team to win. It's a short road trip and one that the Lions should and will win running away.
Misleading final score. Detroit led 28-3 at the end of three. This was NEVER in doubt. Detroit with 365 total yards and the Bengals gave up 37 points. Not much needs written here on this game.
While it was great to win this for everyone, this is a bittersweet time and one I'm not really in a good space right now. As you know I fucked up moving off IND and went with BUF for Survivor, count me as a casualty and I'm as sick as one can get. I feared the Raiders would step up and didn't want to get banged by them again but in the end I technically was.
Now for some off the cuff comments:
9 true road team wins out of 12 games not counting the overseas game. You had total meltdowns of teams like AZ, PHI, SEA, BUF and then had blowout wins by 15,34,17. This is not the NFL of old and you can't just pick teams to throw in a teaser and have automatic wins.
NYJ, LVR, NYG, BAL, LAC, BUF, LAR alone prove that. This isn't easy and don't take for granted what I've been able to produce last season and so far this season. I put a lot of time and effort into this topic and the picks. Not to mention the thought process behind them.
By far this is the most underappreciated thread in the forum and it's been nothing but a gold mine.
This is a play with lines coming from Draft Kings.........
PHI +3 SEA +11.5 ATL +14.5
PHI +3 - I think that PHI received a wake up call last week with the loss to DEN at home. If PHI truly rights the ship here we should see a heavy does of Barkley tonight. He was literally not in the game plan last week but tonight he should be used all over the place. I'm also not sold on Dart being the savior for the NYG here and what we saw last week out of him is going to be more of the same here I think. If by some strange occurrence the NYG win this game then I deserve to lose this play. Tonight we should see a full 60 minute effort out of PHI.
SEA +11.5 - JAX had it's miracle feel good win last week. They will be riding high and while the past doesn't determine the future, this is the spot we see JAX fail and fail miserably. Let's for the heck of it say JAX wins do you think they win by 12 or more? Wrong team is favored here.
ATL +14.5 - MNF magic is in store here. I believe that ATL can win this game SU and getting two TD+ is a gift.
Not a big write up this week, I'm still distraught over the Survivor elimination.
I will say this to everyone, there is a lesson to be learned here. Stick with your first instincts and don't over think it. I did exactly that and paid the ultimate price for it. I know better and outsmarted myself where there was no need to.
If you don't learn from your losses you should re-evaluate why you are betting in the first place.
What's really irritating is the last loss really should've never happened. PHI started using Barkley and things were working and they got away from it and everything went downhill from there.
SEA and ATL both dogs won SU..............
However that's the way it goes and you can't win them all.
Let's see what I have in store for this week:
NFL Lines Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars Los Angeles Rams +7 (-3)
NFL Lines Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-12)
NFL Lines Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons +12 (+2)
When you think of which team is better between LAR/JAX what is your conclusion? When you think of which coach is better between the teams, what is your conclusion? If you said JAX then you would be incorrect. By far the LAR are the better team and better coached. I'll certainly take the 7 and look to move on to next.
KC -2, sure the LVR play KC tough, yes they can keep in most games, but this isn't a 5-1 or 6-0 KC team and there will be a much bigger focus on this game to get them over .500. You don't think Reid wants to beat Carroll real bad? Mahomes wants to get Rice back in action? The KC defense looks forward to Jeanty. Look I'm a life long Raiders fan and this organization has done nothing since getting demolished by TB in the Super Bowl which feels like 100 years ago. Chiefs in a rout.
Finally a live dog that I think can win SU here. Yes it's a road game, yes it's on grass outdoors, yes the weather won't be climate controlled, but 12 points in a one off game, I'll take the dog in most scenarios like this one especially when I think they are live.
Los Angeles Rams +7 (-3) Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-12) Atlanta Falcons +12 (+2)
LAR +7 - When you think of which team is better between LAR/JAX what is your conclusion? When you think of which coach is better between the teams, what is your conclusion? If you said JAX then you would be incorrect. By far the LAR are the better team and better coached.
21-0 at the half 28-0 in the fourth and a 35-7 final. JAX ran more plays 74-62 and had more yards 358-271 and had the ball one less time than the Rams. JAX had zero turnovers but had 13 penalties for 119 yards. LAR had the ball 3.5 more minutes and yet won going away and was never in doubt. Better team, better coach. Discipline and being effective was the total difference in this game and it showed.
KC -2 - Mahomes wants to get Rice back in action? The KC defense looks forward to Jeanty. Chiefs in a rout.
Rice 7 receptions for 42 yards and two touchdowns while being targeted ten times. Nearly 33% of the passes went his way.
Jeanty 6 rushes for only 21 yards.
The score of 31-0 is indeed a ROUT but the score doesn't even come close to telling you how big of a ROUT this was.
KC had 30 first downs. LV had 3. KC ran 77 plays, LV ran 30. KC had 434 yards, LV had 95, yes you read that right 95 total yards on 30 plays that yielded 3 first downs.
LV rushed for 25 yards, KC had 152. LV had 70 passing yards, KC had 282.
KC had the ball 42:08 LV had 17:52
It was so bad, Mahomes was pulled after 3 quarters and Minshew had mop duty of the 4th. It was so bad, he didn't even attempt a pass in the 4th.
ATL +12 - I'll take the dog in most scenarios like this one especially when I think they are live.
There wasn't too much of a write up on this one. However ATL gave this game away late in the second quarter. While the defense held SF to only 13 points through three, it could've been worse. Penix made plays but when push came to shove, he was tentative and made the band aid SF defense look like the Steel Curtain. He had numerous opportunities to tuck it and run but stood in the pocket and got beat up for doing it. I get it that he wasn't a big running QB in college but if he doesn't change that part of his game, he will have a shortened career because he won't be able to take that beating like he did tonight. The defense couldn't tackle CMC and couldn't make key stops late in drives. While the game stat wise was pretty even overall, the effort of SF earned them the 10 point win while we got the $$$ with the 12.
This weeks plays saw 2 blow out never a doubt winners and one where we needed the points to ring the bell at the cashier cage.
Time is flying by this year and it seems quicker than it has in the past. Perhaps it's getting to be older it seems that way since time relatively is always the same speed.
Going to switch it up this week and I think I've put together a pretty strong ticket at plus money. I always place the wager first then come post and I just made this moments ago.
6 Point Teaser (3 Teams) 10/25/25 13:41 EDT Result: Pending
Pittsburgh Steelers +9 (-115) New England Patriots -1 (-105) Atlanta Falcons -1 (-110)
+160
Let's go in reverse order based on time of the games...........
ATL -1 if they can't beat MIA at home I deserve to lose. This MIA organization is by far the worst in the NFL and some would argue that the Jets are the worst. I can't argue that the NYJ is bad but they have good pieces in place and if they can put it all together (likely next year) then they will be fine. Back to MIA, this coach needs fired, the QB needs benched and neither have happened so far and I really don't understand why. From game one of the season until the last it's just been a total cluster fuck. Mind you this is coming from someone that took Miami three times in the Three and Out contest and was bounced early due to it. No animosity here but obviously I watched a lot of their games.
As for Atlanta, they just need to run the ball, make a few plays downfield and keep Penix from getting crunched. He got beat up pretty good in the last game and I wonder where his mental state is. He never had that happen in NCAA and up until last game, not in the NFL. He refuses to use his legs which to me is silly, if you've watched him run, it's like he runs scared. I've used him the last two weeks in overs for his rushing yards. Last week it was 4.5 yards. That's Tom Brady like numbers and even Tom ran when it was necessary.
All we need is a win here and I can't see a 1 point game.
NE -1 - Ok people are all over CLV here. Why? They had 200 yards of offense in their game against the a fore mentioned Dolphins. Gabriel will progress and I just can't see the Browns going into Foxborough and beating the Patriots. Maye should have a field day here and I think if you wanted to make a bet on the game with full numbers, NE -3.5 first half might be a good option. They have a great game plan to start games and I see them having a big time of possession edge in this game. CLV will be very limited in what they are going to be able to do. NE will have to spit the bit for CLV to win this game.
PIT +9 - GB has played down to competition this year outside of the opener vs DET. Ever been to a PIT game on a SUN/MON night? It is going to be total mayhem and come on you know Rodgers wants some form of retribution here. He won't say it, but you know just like when beating the NYJ, he wants this one even more. Nothing more than beating your replacement and why you left to begin with. I can't see GB winning by 10 in Blitzburgh and this should be a tightly played game. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see PIT win SU.
One note with 3 team 6pt teasers if a leg pushes, it reverts to a 2 teamer at lower odds.
I hope to see all of you that read this at the cashier cage late Sunday Night cashing this ticket.
How is it that I write up once again, if a team beats me I deserve to lose. First it was PHI against the NYG and now ATL vs MIA. How sick was this beat down.
The Falcons were even pathetic last week with ridiculous errors that cost them the outright and kept them at 10 points against 49ers who they should have beat for the SU win....ATL is my team. I figured this game would have some points from both sides and land around 31-24 pretty much on the number. I luckily had 1 play on the over 43.5 which I bought off 44. But I also had the Falcons team total over 26 points. Falcons were in an even ML parley with eagles and patriots and so I lost out on my team today. I really expected a much greater effort out of them. Its not like they were playing some superior opponent today or something lol.....or were they? Are they that bad? at home? everything with the Falcons today was just tough to imagine.
Pittsburgh Steelers +9 (-115) New England Patriots -1 (-105) Atlanta Falcons -1 (-110)
Time for a review
ATL -1 if they can't beat MIA at home I deserve to lose. As for Atlanta, they just need to run the ball, make a few plays downfield and keep Penix from getting crunched. He got beat up pretty good in the last game and I wonder where his mental state is. He never had that happen in NCAA and up until last game, not in the NFL.
Well I guess we deserved to lose. Forget Penix, forget Cousins, the game plan put forth in this game by ATL was just in a word atrocious. I don't know if they felt if they just showed up they were winning or what the thought process was here. Now I'll give MIA credit, they played the nearly perfect game. The best game they have played all season and it took 8 weeks to show up.
Miami had 16 more plays and yet ATL had one more drive. MIA 141 yards rushing, say what? ATL only 45 yards say what? Atlanta had a total of 49 plays in the game and 31 of them were passes. They started passing and just kept passing because they had to. If they would have led with smash mouth running with Robinson, it may have been a different outcome. Oddly enough the key play of the game is when Robinson fumbled down at the MIA 10 yard line or so as he bounced the ball off his knee while running in the open. Have you ever seen a RB do that? In a way I'm glad ATL lost and I'll talk about that later.
NE -1 - Ok people are all over CLV here. Why?They had 200 yards of offense in their game against the a fore mentioned Dolphins. Gabriel will progress and I just can't see the Browns going into Foxborough and beating the Patriots. Maye should have a field day here. I see them having a big time of possession edge in this game. CLV will be very limited in what they are going to be able to do.
CLV had a total of 213 yards of offense. Maye went 18/24 for 282 yards passing and 3 TD's. NE had the ball nearly 12.5 minutes longer than CLV and only ran 13 more plays. CLV was outscored 29-6 after the first qtr in which CLV led 7-3 at the end of the first. This played out exactly as I thought it would.
PIT +9 - I can't see GB winning by 10 in Blitzburgh and this should be a tightly played game. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see PIT win SU.
16-7 at the half, 19-14 after 3 with Pittsburgh out front. The fourth qtr GB won the game outscoring PIT 21-6 to win by guess what 10!
I don't know what took place in the PIT locker room at halftime but it sure didn't work. They came out of the gate pass, pass, pass and I could probably write it 100 more times. Why they went totally against what was working and their strong suit is beyond me. Rodgers looked like a statue the majority of the time and hell he made Michael Penix look like a natural born running QB and that's impossible to do but Rodgers did it. The PIT defense looked like they had too much to drink at halftime as they couldn't get any pressure on Love who played the role of a surgeon and sliced and diced the PIT defense.
I want to touch upon why I said I'm glad ATL lost early because if we would've got to this leg +9 and up 5 at the end of the third. Would you have thought we could lose? Don't get me wrong we did but let's go to the final PIT score and at the time they were down 16. So if you came into this up 5 getting 9 and all of a sudden your down 16 and losing you have a WTF moment. But let's talk about the TD, it was one, even thought it took replay assist to correct the error by the refs on the field. How would you have liked your money coming down to a 2 point conversion and you see your guy make the catch and you start clapping, woo hooing, cheering or whatever just to see him lose it and it just drop to the ground.
That would have been pure agony in itself. Don't get me wrong, I pride myself on my results here and even I wanted to see him catch it and lose by 8.
9 teaser plays this season and this is the first one where there was more than one loss. The prior two losers only had 1 leg misfire and it was fluky kind of things that cost us. Could you imagine if ATL won and it would've lost like this. Holy smokes, but still it sucks for sure.
Even if we had played a 10 pt teaser, we would've lost but only 1 leg. ATL. This loss sucks but at least it was just 1 unit with no juice.
There will be many more opportunities as we move forward and if you've played every play posted this year, you're ahead and that's the bottom line.
Detroit Lions +1 (-9) San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-2.5) Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 (-9.5)
I'm going to keep it really simple this week. We need two teams to just basically win their game in DET and LAC.
I had multiple games I looked at including IND, LVR, GB, BUF, but I chose SF as I can see them going in and just smash mouthing this NYG team. With the loss of their rookie RB, it changes a lot of their offense to an extent. If any team is going to feast on the NYG it should be SF. Look I know SF isn't 100% on D, they don't have to be. I'll take the 60% version against this NYG O. Dart will be running around to safe his hide later today.
No need to over think things and take what's being offered.
Detroit Lions +1 (-9) San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-2.5) Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 (-9.5)
Well 2/3 doesn't pay a dime but how bad did the Lions look against a rookie QB that made Goff look like the rookie. Now all the talk is about how MN righted their season and off to the playoffs they go. I see them winning at most 3 more games this season and even that will be a tall task.
The Eagles and Rams are the front runners in the NFC. maybe outside of SF if they can get healthy there's no other challengers. Sorry Packer backers, they aren't winning the NFC. They've been fully exposed and Carolina of all teams gave the road map to beating them.
In the AFC, it's coming down to potentially three or four teams. BUF, KC, DEN. BAL..... no one else has a chance. IND no, PIT no, NE no, HOU, no......................oh you say LAC...... NO
Denver Broncos +1 (-9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5) Philadelphia Eagles +12 (+2)
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.......
DEN at home, LV on a short week, altitude matters. I'll take my chances with DEN only needing to win.
TB - NE winning at TB by more than a TD, I can't envision it. Yes I go against the grain going through 0, but those rules are antiquated to today's NFL. I never was much a rule follower when it comes to sports wagering.
PHI - Off a much needed bye week. Perhaps GB was looking ahead to this game while losing to CAR last week. Won't matter even if GB wins the game, they aren't blowing out PHI.
This play keeps you invested from first game to last.
I like this play a lot but that doesn't mean for you to go bet crazy. Let me do that!
Walking on egg shells to the final game in this teaser lol.....Hope this lands for you tonight. Good grief the Broncos were the scare, Tampa Bay finding there way back in there. NOW....what seemed like the easiest cover in this entire teaser double digits with the Eagles who I think should win outright anyway....I think like you've said before....if you were gonna lose getting it out of the way would be a lot easier. This game tonight in my opinion was the least of all concern. Tampa Bay was the only team I thought might not win but you were getting all the extra points and I still did think they would have won the game as well too as I did not like the Patriots +2 looking at the game originally.
Best of luck tonight! I have a feeling perhaps this game won't be so down to the wire with the spread as the others. I've got the eagles winning outright and a worst case scenario for my numbers I could see the packers winning by 4 points here. I think the Eagles have a better shot of winning by double digits than the Packers.
Denver Broncos +1 (-9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5) Philadelphia Eagles +12 (+2)
Recap
DEN I'll take my chances with DEN only needing to win. And win they just did in a lackluster 10-7 victory. Were they looking ahead to KC this coming week?
TB - NE winning at TB by more than a TD, I can't envision it. Ok this was a nutty one, as I watched the NE long TD run late to put them ahead of +7.5 and then watched Mayfield get it back even later to get the W. After TB went down and scored on the first drive to go up 7-0 this team disappeared especially on key offensive plays and defensive plays. I will admit I haven't given NE their due and I still won't. They've played the easiest schedule in the league and would you believe me if I told you Sagarin had them rated as the 16th best team. http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm
PHI - Off a much needed bye week. Won't matter even if GB wins the game, they aren't blowing out PHI. Let's just say this game was ugly. PHI wins the game with only 13 First Downs of which 1 came by penalty. Neither team inspired confidence going forward. There is something seriously wrong going on in GB and for PHI to come out so poorly after a bye week is a cause of concern. However it's the NFL and teams will take a W any way they can. This one was never in doubt at any point and an easy winner for us to finish off this play.
A winner in the books after a brief 2 loss skid and we are still ahead for the season and looking for more. These plays really only get harder from here as some teams appear to have checked out, some are still playing for something even if it's nothing and some are on cruise control.
The NFL isn't the same as it was even five years ago, parity is at a all time high and week to week anything can happen. To have a winning record and plus money on these plays isn't easy.
you started with a 10-7 game....you ended with a 10-7 game....
Great teaser Freak. As I stated earlier I do believe from the get go this game tonight especially with a +12 sitting on your side in a game Eagles should win would be the least of your worries....you got through the scare game on Broncos playing down to level.
New England Patriots -3 (-13) New York Giants +17 (+7) Detroit Lions +12.5 (+2.5)
Let's cut to the chase:
NE -3 - I'm still not sold on NE as I stated in my previous post, however this week I like the chances of winning by 4 or more at home. Fields hasn't done much in the passing department and I don't see that changing tonight. I haven't looked yet, but I'll be looking to bet the over on his run total. I cashed a lot of tickets with him while in Chicago and tonight he is going to need to use his legs. This is the game that if NE doesn't cover the number, I deserve to lose.
NYG +17 - Yes this is digging deep into the garbage can. A few reasons behind this play, GB hasn't demonstrated to me that they can blow anyone out. Yes I know NYG will be using Winston or Russel but they can still manage the game. Both play loosey goosey at times when passing downfield but I see a bit of a different type offense this week. I'm also riding on the new coach bump. Players will play a little harder for a coach they like and if they want to see him be the next coach they will play their hearts out. I just can't see GB winning by 3+ scores here.
DET +12.5 - This is a role reversal from MNF where we saw the Eagles +2.5 at GB and they won SU. DET has an offense and will score points. Since Campbell took over play calling they've just been an offensive juggernaut and even while PHI is an elite defense, covering 13 is just not something I can see taking place.
This week you get a bonus teaser and I like this one a lot. When I say something like that which isn't often even though I said it last week, the plays hit at a high rate. I'll add that this is the biggest wager on a teaser I've made all year.
First we get the Texans who just need to win, I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby !!!!! Granted we have Justin Mills and not Shroud which won 26-0 with a big fourth quarter earlier this season. However the Houston defense made life miserable for all facets of the Titans offense. A game Houston must win if they have hopes of the playoffs. The Titans shouldn't score more than 14 in this game barring fluke special teams scores like we saw with the Jets vs Browns last week.
To close it out we get a 425 start for the Ravens to dismantle the Browns. I was talking to someone earlier this week and told them the Ravens are the Eagles of last year. They struggled until their bye week and the rest was history. We are seeing that right now in BAL and I wouldn't be surprised if they won 7 or 8 in a row. They like HOU need this game and while the CLV defense may provide some moments of uneasiness, I don't see the CLV offense doing much of anything as they haven't all season, why would it start here?
New England Patriots -3 (-13) New York Giants +17 (+7) Detroit Lions +12.5 (+2.5)
Winner
NE -3 - I like the chances of winning by 4 or more at home. Fields hasn't done much in the passing department and I don't see that changing tonight. I haven't looked yet, but I'll be looking to bet the over on his run total. I cashed a lot of tickets with him while in Chicago and tonight he is going to need to use his legs.
This was a game in which NE let NYJ hang around. Full line action went anywhere from -12.5 to -13.5 depending on when bet as NE won by 13. If you followed my advice on Fields the number was in the mid 30's and he ran for 67 yards. You were a winner before the first half was over.
NYG +17 - Yes I know NYG will be using Winston or Russel but they can still manage the game. Both play loosey goosey at times when passing downfield but I see a bit of a different type offense this week. I'm also riding on the new coach bump. Players will play a little harder for a coach they like and if they want to see him be the next coach they will play their hearts out. I just can't see GB winning by 3+ scores here.
A lot to cover here as Winston did indeed manage the game and avoided mistakes until his interception late in the game going for the tying score. Like the NE game the full game line went anywhere from GB -6.5 to -7.5. We got the easy win and this one was never in doubt. The NYG did play a bit harder and you can't fault the effort.
DET +12.5 - DET has an offense and will score points. Since Campbell took over play calling they've just been an offensive juggernaut and even while PHI is an elite defense, covering 13 is just not something I can see taking place.
Ok I was half right here, as DET didn't do much as Goff was pressured like Lionel Richie singing "All Night Long" PHI does indeed have an elite D and they didn't come close to covering 13 either. Sure it got to 10 but there was never shot at it being in jeopardy. We needed the additional points here. I will add there was some home cooking on that final drive as that was clearly not PI on DET to give PHI a first down.
First we get the Texans who just need to win, I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby !!!!! However the Houston defense made life miserable for all facets of the Titans offense. A game Houston must win if they have hopes of the playoffs. The Titans shouldn't score more than 14 in this game barring fluke special teams scores like we saw with the Jets vs Browns last week.
A tougher game than expected but I said I don't care if they win by 1 or 21, Just Win Baby and that Houston did. They indeed made life miserable for Cam Ward and TN didn't score 14 points, they scored 13. Pretty close to how I figured it would play out.
Ravens to dismantle the Browns. while the CLV defense may provide some moments of uneasiness, I don't see the CLV offense doing much of anything as they haven't all season, why would it start here?
Like HOU this wasn't easy either but the end result was a victory. CLV managed a total of 16 points while producing only 187 total yards. CLV didn't score the second half and never were in a position to score. The CLV D did provide many moments of uneasiness but BAL found a way to score when necessary and win.
A winner is a winner and we had two on Sunday to raise the season record to 9-4 +410.
Perhaps I write all of this for myself because it's a ghost town here. It's very disheartening to put the effort I put in not only in doing this thread but all I do on the site for 25+ years. It's really bizarre the lack of conversation not only here but elsewhere. I guess people are stuck in their phones and tablets to communicate or put a few sentences together. Perhaps it's time to shut down the forum and move on in life.
I thought that last weeks teaser was great, well I think this one is even better. Granted it took a bit of an effort last week for HOU and BAL to get it done, but let's face it, division games aren't easy no matter the records.
Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (-6.5) San Francisco 49ers -1 (-7)
This week’s ticket doesn’t feature a single division matchup. Before I dive into the reasoning, let me make one thing clear: when I say this is one of the biggest bets of the season, I don’t mean you should go out and fire recklessly. I’ve built up a strong bankroll with teasers, and last week’s two‑teamer was a solid win. It’s not about pressing when ahead it’s about finding value. And while this week’s teaser looks straightforward, remember they call it a teaser for a reason.
Line Shopping Matters
Don’t settle for inflated odds. I’ve seen books hanging numbers at -140, and that’s a hard pass. Caesars is offering this at even money (+100), and most standard books are at -110. Anything higher than that? Time to walk away and cash out. I’m dead serious about this.
Play: LAR -0.5 vs TB
When I think of Tampa Bay, I think soft. Look at their wins: ATL, HOU, NYJ, SEA, SF, NO. Outside of Seattle—and San Francisco with a backup QB—their best win was way back in Week 5 against SEA. Since then, they’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 (losses to DET, NE, BUF) with the lone win against NO. Now they’re on the road again, fresh off giving up 44 points to Buffalo. That doesn’t inspire confidence.
The Rams, on the other hand, are riding high after knocking off a division rival many considered the league’s best. They’ve beaten the same slate of teams TB has—HOU, NO, SF, SEA—but they’ve done it with conviction. So ask yourself: would you rather back a team on a five‑game win streak, playing with momentum, or a team that’s lost 3 of its last 4 and is flying cross‑country to face a complete, well‑rounded opponent? The Rams’ only two losses came in games they easily could’ve won—against PHI in a fluky fourth‑quarter finish and against SF in an overtime heartbreaker.
SF -1 vs CAR - This is two fold and really simple. CAR is a fraud at 6-5. They've played the 28th toughest schedule while SF has played the 11th toughest. SF is getting pieces back from injury and the big piece is Purdy.
CAR has beaten ATL, MIA, DAL, NYJ, GB and ATL a second time. Not exactly a murders row and let's face it if you've lost to the Saints at home by 10, that doesn't make me want to run and ring the bell endorsing CAR.
I see Young running around yelling SOS call 911, I'm being mugged as he is slammed to the turf for a sack. Rinse and Repeat because this is what we should see take place.
This line is off by a few points and if SF doesn't beat them by double digits, I'd be shocked. Of all my Bad Man plays this one is by far my favorite one of the week.
I smashed the betting buttons already as this is now my biggest wager on a teaser this year. I didn't think it would be possible after last week but it is.
For those of you looking for a 10 pt teaser this week, simply plug the above two and I would use DET as the third piece.
With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up next week, I wanted to take a moment and wish everyone the best of Thanksgivings and I hope that you spend quality time with family and friends. If that's not possible, spend it whichever way makes you the happiest even if it's just the tv and the games. You know guys as you get older you'll find a deeper appreciation for things that you never did in the past. It's funny what time does to you.
Good Luck and thanks for reading and following along.
I thought that last weeks teaser was great, well I think this one is even better. Granted it took a bit of an effort last week for HOU and BAL to get it done, but let's face it, division games aren't easy no matter the records.
Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (-6.5) San Francisco 49ers -1 (-7)
For those of you looking for a 10 pt teaser this week, simply plug the above two and I would use DET as the third piece.
Play: LAR -0.5 vs TB
When I think of Tampa Bay, I think soft
The Rams They’ve beaten the same slate of teams TB has—HOU, NO, SF, SEA—but they’ve done it with conviction.
This was a total beat down from the start. They did exactly what I thought they would and don't you love that word conviction because that's exactly what this was.
SF -1 vs CAR
CAR is a fraud at 6-5.
This line is off by a few points and if SF doesn't beat them by double digits, I'd be shocked. Of all my Bad Man plays this one is by far my favorite one of the week.
This played out a bit differently than I envisioned on the defensive side of the ball for SF. However they did get two interceptions and CAR only ran a total of 42 plays in 9 drives. That's not going to win ball games. Add in the fact they only had the ball for 22:18 and that normally equates to losing.
SF not withstanding 3 Purdy interceptions ran 70 plys in 10 possessions and had the ball 37:42. They were clearly the more balanced offense with 32 pass and 38 run plays. CAR on the other hand was 29 pass and 13 run plays.
It wasn't pretty but it didn't have to be and they won by double digits.
By the way SF was my only Bad Man winner this week. Lost two by 1/2 point, DET won but didn't cover and PHI blew a 21-0 lead........ tough week to take in that combination.
For the 10 teamer - DET really pushed the envelope and for the longest time I wasn't sure this was going to get home. It took OT but once again the NYG in defeat were stubborn. Sooner or later they are going to get waxed because you can only go so long all in and losing before it all comes tumbling down. They are still playing hard for the interim coach but I don't think he's going to be the next named head coach. If so I'll be shocked.
I was speaking with a friend and I told him I had my biggest teaser of the year going yesterday. He proceeds to tell me he tailed it and his families happiness is riding on it.
I sent back a reply that I was putting Thanksgiving dinner on his table this year. I had said either people that tailed will be ready for Thanksgiving or will be the stuffed turkey.
You know it's some back and forth conversation but today I was thinking of that conversation and thought to myself, there are people out there tailing my picks and perhaps betting way more than they should. I think I fuel that by my comments about the biggest one of the season or even bigger than last weeks. I never intend to put people in a position that if they lose they can't put food on the table or go without paying a bill or something.
I take what I do very seriously and it's why I say, don't go crazy, don't over do it... etc etc.........
If I in some way have helped your bankroll rise or maybe I have put some holiday cheer into your festivities later this week, I'm glad I can assist. There's nothing worse for me than to have a losing pick. Realistically I can't win them all and they aren't as easy to come up with. I want anyone that follows along to win and I love doing this thread.
The season is starting to wind down and I'll do my best to keep the winners coming.
For those celebrating Thanksgiving in a few days, enjoy the time and raise a glass in cheer to FREAK!
Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115) Buffalo Bills +6.5 (-105) New England Patriots +3 (-115)
-120
This wager was just placed at sportsbook.ag
DET +7.5 - Let's start with the Thanksgiving game, this line is suspicious at DET -2.5. We know GB won by 2 TD's opening week at home vs DET. That was basically three months ago. Which team do you feel since that game has been the better team? If you answered DET, you understand why I'm willing with hands full of turkey breast and gravy dripping to take DET at home with the 7.5. I hear Clara Peller saying "Where's The Beef"
BUF +6.5 - Quite simply, do you feel PIT can beat BUF by 7 points? I don't. Could PIT win, sure, I'm just not seeing them win by a TD or more and frankly I don't see them winning the game. Waive those terrible towels because PIT will be terrible on Sunday.
NE +3 - THis could be the game the house of cards known as the NYG comes tumbling down. You are saying FREAK the NYG are 2-10 what house of cards? The NYG have played above and beyond the last 3-4 weeks. They've put in max effort and it has shown, however, a team can't continue to do that when they are losing. This is a game that has some intrigue. You have the NYG that has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and then NE that has played the easiest. Losing breeds losing and winning breeds winning. I hear John Cougar Mellencamp singing in the background. When the walls come tumblin' down When the walls come crumblin' crumblin' When the walls come tumblin' tumblin' down......... Humpty Dumpty aka NYG is about to take that fall.
Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and don't over stuff yourself, that turkey will put you to sleep by halftime. I helped put a feast on the table, now it's time to start putting gifts under the tree. Don't forget me now......... I'm easy cash, cash and more cash...... although I will take a good vinyl album all you have to do is ask and I can give a list of a few :)
Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115) Buffalo Bills +6.5 (-105) New England Patriots +3 (-115)
-120
Season Record 12-4 +710
Let's give a recap.........
DET +7.5 - this line is suspicious at DET -2.5. Which team do you feel since that game has been the better team? If you answered DET, you understand why I'm willing with hands full of turkey breast and gravy dripping to take DET at home with the 7.5.
This line was suspicious for good reason and it ended up ringing true as GB won in an upset by 7. We win with the hook and were glad to be able to move on to Sunday. Speaking of Thanksgiving, the favorites in all three games ended up being the turkeys and that carried over into the Friday game.
Let's just say the public was crushed Thursday/Friday and it was a massacre.
BUF +6.5 - Quite simply, do you feel PIT can beat BUF by 7 points? I don't. frankly I don't see them winning the game. Waive those terrible towels because PIT will be terrible on Sunday.
Those terrible towels were used to put over their face or to wipe away frozen tears. How bad was it for Pittsburgh?
10 First Downs on only 43 plays. 108 yards passing, 58 yards rushing. 2 turnovers and only 18 minutes of possession. This while Buffalo ran for 249 yards they didn't need to pass. They had the ball for 42 minutes and that included two turnovers. It may have been tight early but the final score of 26-7 is not indicative of how much of a beatdown BUF put on PIT. They were simply TERRIBLE..............
NE +3 - This could be the game the house of cards known as the NYG comes tumbling down. The NYG have played above and beyond the last 3-4 weeks. They've put in max effort and it has shown, however, a team can't continue to do that when they are losing. Losing breeds losing and winning breeds winning. I hear John Cougar Mellencamp singing in the background. When the walls come tumblin' down When the walls come crumblin' crumblin' When the walls come tumblin' tumblin' down......... Humpty Dumpty aka NYG is about to take that fall.
It was over early and it was 30-7 at the half. NE went on cruise control the second half. The difference between the NYG and PIT is that they didn't give up. 14 FD on 53 plays and held the ball 26+ minutes. Even though they got their ass handed to them, they still tried. However the House of Cards did come tumblin down. This closed out another winner.
Well what's there to say, we won by the skin of our teeth on Thanksgiving but survived where many people were wiped clean. Sunday and Monday was never in doubt and we end up at the cashiers line to cash yet another ticket to bring the record to 12-4 +710.
It's been quite a year with little fan fare but so did the 25 year anniversary yesterday. it begs me to question why I continue forward? I remember year 1, year 5 and the fan fare and excitement around it from the community but year 25, pfft what's that who cares?
Van Halen's 5150. For Unlawful Carnage and OU812 top my vinyl album list for Christmas. Can never go wrong throwing in Kill Em All and Ride The Lightning from Metallica!
Funny timing as I write this on my play list here is AFU Naturally Wired from OU812!
Let's go with some NCAA Conference Title Games for Saturday
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Virginia Cavaliers +6 (-110) Alabama Crimson Tide +12.5 (-110) Texas Tech Red Raiders -2 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -120
Let's go in order of kick off.....
Texas Tech -2 ---- If you talk to Birdie4me and a few others, I shouted from the roof tops way back in July to get to the window and bet Texas Tech to win the Big12 Title at +600 or better odds. A well respected group of private handicappers I know couldn't have agreed more and it made it that much more easier to load up on tickets across several betting platforms.
BYU needs this game to make the CFP as they sit just on the edge, but their fairy tale ride will come to an end at AT&T Stadium on Saturday. I've been involved with BYU games all season, I've seen nearly every game and the same for Texas Tech. There's just a bit of a talent gap that BYU won't overcome. The early start for BYU hurt them last week at home and they arrived late to cover vs C. FL but this isn't C.FL. This game should see rapid fire scoring by Texas Tech and longer drives by BYU. The problem with longer drives it provides more opportunities for mistakes. TT is favored by 12 for a reason and many will be all over BYU but I just have a hard time seeing them scoring 24 points in this game. They will need 40+ to win this game SU and that is just not happening unless TT is scoring 50+ and that may still happen anyway.
AL +12.5 ---- Underdogs do well in the SEC title game and for good reason, they are usually a really good team and that's what we have here. I see a defensive type game, lower scoring and points will be a premium across the board. AL has a better history in this game than GA and both will be in the CFP. I don't see either team winning by 10 or more. It will take some unusual happening for it to take place. Both teams have struggled down the stretch but I think AL is a bit more even keeled and can recover from mistakes a bit better than GA right now. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see AL win SU.
VA +6 ---- Ok this one is based on if Duke wins, the ACC sends no one to the CFP. I'm not a conspiracy type but let's face it, the ACC does not want this to happen. They used some crazy way of breaking a four team tie for second place that Duke came away with the nod to be here. Are they deserving? NO, should they be here? NO......... but yet here they are. Let's give a quick history lesson from just a few weeks back. Who remembers Duke favored by 3.5 over Virginia playing at home? All the wise guys were all over Duke and no way they could lose. They did.......... Now let's go to Saturday VA opened at 2.5 and is anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 on the odds screens, best I got was VA -4 at 5 different sportsbooks and I didn't see 3.5 or 4.5 so not sure how they list those when they aren't available.
That tells you that the money has come in on VA and I think this time around it is the right money, not for the fact that VA smoked Duke in Durham, not for the fact that I'm a big lifelong UNC fan, trust me my money has no favorite teams only the ones that cover spreads. I don't know about you, but I just can't see the ACC allowing, yes I used the word allowing Duke to win. Put yourself in the ACC HQ and sitting around the table talking about this game, do you think anyone outside of Duke guys wants them to win. How embarrassing it would be for the conference. I don't say this lightly obviously being a UNC fan I follow the ACC, more in basketball than football but the conference has had it shares of huge negative publicity and humiliation. There is no way in heck that Duke is winning this game. I'm taking the proverbial insurance just in case heck has it's day.... I know JMU is rooting for it.........
You might be thinking you didn't touch the Big 10 title game, how easy would IN +14 be? I have tickets on Ohio State to win the BIG 10 at juicy prices and no way would I root against Ohio State here. Do I think 14 is enough, maybe, maybe not. Some teams even this late in the season I still don't believe IN. See what I did there........
Let's go with some NCAA Conference Title Games for Saturday
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Virginia Cavaliers +6 (-110) Alabama Crimson Tide +12.5 (-110) Texas Tech Red Raiders -2 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -120
Let's go in order of kick off.....
I'm writing these right after the game ends so it's a totally fresh take.
Texas Tech -2 ---- BYU needs this game to make the CFP as they sit just on the edge, but their fairy tale ride will come to an end at AT&T Stadium on Saturday. I've been involved with BYU games all season, I've seen nearly every game and the same for Texas Tech. There's just a bit of a talent gap that BYU won't overcome. The early start for BYU hurt them last week at home and they arrived late to cover vs C. FL but this isn't C.FL. This game should see rapid fire scoring by Texas Tech and longer drives by BYU. The problem with longer drives it provides more opportunities for mistakes. TT is favored by 12 for a reason and many will be all over BYU but I just have a hard time seeing them scoring 24 points in this game. They will need 40+ to win this game SU and that is just not happening unless TT is scoring 50+ and that may still happen anyway.
I couldn't cut this down because exactly what I said... happened..... Final 34-7 but it really should have been way worse. 2 missed FG, turnover on downs inside the 15 of BYU and that fact they made 4fg's. They easily should have had over 50 points.
BYU had 14 first downs for a total of 200 yards and it didn't help they had 4 turnovers. Texas Tech only had 374 total yards due to short fields. Let me tell you how dominant this was.......... BYU ran 14 plays for 90 yards on their first drive. They ran 45 plays for 110 yards the rest of the game.
I have to interject I'm listening to the post game and Booger Mcfarland said not once but twice that this year there isn't any dominant football teams. The other guy says what about Ohio St and Booger says, I don't know, I've only watched them once vs Texas. What has he been watching all year? These are so called experts?
One down two to go....... It's on to next....
AL +12.5 ---- I see a defensive type game, lower scoring and points will be a premium across the board. I don't see either team winning by 10 or more. It will take some unusual happening for it to take place. Both teams have struggled down the stretch but I think AL is a bit more even keeled and can recover from mistakes a bit better than GA right now.
I couldn't have been more wrong here. AL QB looked scared the whole game. This game was over early after the blocked punt and then the int to put AL down 14-0. This play ended up making this ticket a loser and it doesn't matter about the last game, so need to give an update on it later.
After AL laid a leg yesterday, as much as I hate Duke, I was glad they found a way to win in OT. I sat there watching the final 2 minutes of regulation and couldn't help but think of here comes the fix. It was just uncanny what happened that final 2 minutes, but Duke said we are smarter than you and stole the championship.
6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Denver Broncos -2 (-110) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -110
This one is really straight forward.......
You have two bad teams in the Raiders and Saints playing against teams that are truly playing for something. Denver wants the #1 seed and at worst wants to keep the #2 seed. Tampa wants to win the division and get a better seeding.
Laying less than a FG in both games and it crossed 7 and 3 for those that just must have to follow the unwritten rules of teasers.
6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Denver Broncos -2 (-110) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -110
This one is really straight forward.......
You have two bad teams in the Raiders and Saints playing against teams that are truly playing for something. Denver wants the #1 seed and at worst wants to keep the #2 seed. Tampa wants to win the division and get a better seeding.
Well TB blew two leads and simply laid an egg in losing to a pathetic NO team. DEN did it's job and I must laugh because without the teaser it lost due to LVR kicking a meaningless FG with 4 seconds left to take the spread money from DEN backers.
Wouldn't have thought I would lose this one but games on paper don't count.
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110) Buffalo Bills +8 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx -120
BUF +8 - Five years atop the AFC East and this will be the end of the streak for BUF if they lose this game. Yes NE won at Buffalo early in the season and they haven't lost since, reeling off 10 in a row. So a streak is ending today and I believe it will be the 10 in a row.
Neither team has played a tough schedule, BUF 28 NE the easiest at 32. On a neutral field BUF would be favored by 3 to 3- and here they are favored by 2. I'm going to ride with Josh Allen and BUF this time around as if I recall I did the last time they played. If I remember without looking, I said if NE beats BUF I deserve to lose. Well it appears that will ring true again if NE wins by 9 or more. Funny how you don't forget your losses.
PHI -2.5 - Dysfunctional PHI should have it easy today. LVR have laid down their arms except to screw DEN backers out of $$$ last week. I truly loved it as a long time embarrassed raider fan. However, I can't see them showing up the rest of the season, playing for the top draft pick and getting a franchise QB is what they need. I'd be surpised if Carrol or Geno are in LV next year. Perhaps a disgruntled Kyle Murray will be the QB? Anyway Jeanty should get some rushing yards today but PHI has it's way on the scoreboard. Early in the season I would've jumped in with fistful of $$$ on LV but this is end of season and so is theirs.
SF -2.5 - Like PHI, SF should have their way. TN at home is a different animal than on the road and a west coast trip to a not familiar foe is tough especially if you are one of the worst teams. No need for further reasoning. You know what to do.
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110) Buffalo Bills +8 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx -120
Winner
BUF +8 - So a streak is ending today and I believe it will be the 10 in a row.
I'm sure most people were thinking this was dead down 21-0. From that point on it was a 35-10 run for BUF and a SU victory. Down 24-7 at the half, it was just a pure clinic on offense by BUF along with defense and they wore out the NE defense. I was never worried even down 21-0, it gave some great ML and PS live wagers that were just too juicy.
PHI -2.5 - Dysfunctional PHI should have it easy today. PHI has it's way on the scoreboard.
This by far was a no sweat, didn't have to pay attention to game. However I did anyway.
PHI 27 FD 183 YR, 204 YP. LV 7 FD 46 YR 29 YP.
LV ran 42 plays for a total of 75 total yards. That was on 8 possessions and 20:35 in TOP. PHI had 387 total yards.
LV was beat down and definitely looked like a team on permanent vacation.
SF -2.5 - Like PHI, SF should have their way.
Tn was pesky they ran a total of 49 plays but had 306 total yards in nearly 23 minutes in TOP. SF ran 70 plays for 430 yards and a little over 37 minutes in TOP.
The only thing that was in jeopardy late in this game was the real game spread of 12.5.
Well I bounced back from last week and brought home the money. Hope you tailed and made that $$$$
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Chicago Bears +10 Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 Los Angeles Rams +11.5 Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -120
Real late entry but this makes a ton of sense.
LAR +11.5 - I think wrong team is favored here in this match up. I like LAR SU why wouldn't I like them at +11.5. I can't see a blow out either way and as most division games are, they are tight due to familiarity. There's a lot on the line tonight and I think the LAR are the cream of the crop in the NFC.
PHI +3.5 - I can't see WAS winning this game. I can see another low scoring defense type game but once again it will be PHI D that is the difference. It won't be as easy as LW vs LVR but WAS is playing for pride and on the beach right now. Perhaps they rise up a big effort but I just can't see them winning SU.
CHI +10 - Yes I know GB is 30-6 last 36 vs CHI, this is a different CHI team and they should've won in GB. They get the luxury of being at home and they don't have to worry about Micah Parsons. Both teams have injuries but I think GB's will have a bigger effect than people think. This is a big time game for CHI and Caleb Williams, let's see if he can bring it home. I don't see GB winning the game and I'll take the 10 with the Bears. You easily could take 10 with GB, but I think CHI is the better side to take. I like them to win this game and it's possible they could win by more than 10. Unlikely but it's very possible.
This is a Thursday/Saturday special........ I'll review the card for Sunday but won't press. If it makes sense, that's one thing, but for action no.........
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) Chicago Bears +10 Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 Los Angeles Rams +11.5 Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -120
Winner
LAR +11.5 - I can't see a blow out either way and as most division games are, they are tight due to familiarity.
Game couldn't end up score wise any tighter. LAR blew a 16 pt lead in the 4th qtr and then couldn't stop SEA once they scored a TD first in OT. SEA won by going for 2. Even though SEA won the game and currently the #1 seed, this is the time you buy the LAR to win the NFC and SB. Their SU loss created a buying opportunity.
PHI +3.5 - I can't see WAS winning this game. It won't be as easy as LW vs LVR but WAS is playing for pride and on the beach right now. Perhaps they rise up a big effort but I just can't see them winning SU.
This scenario played out to near perfection. WAS led at HT and PHI took over in the second half with WAS scoring a meaning less TD and 2PT conversion to make it look closer than what it was.
CHI +10 - This is a big time game for CHI and Caleb Williams, let's see if he can bring it home. I don't see GB winning the game and I'll take the 10 with the Bears. You easily could take 10 with GB, but I think CHI is the better side to take. I like them to win this game and it's possible they could win by more than 10. Unlikely but it's very possible.
CHI and Williams stepped up when needed and brought home a win in a thrilling comeback and OT win. GB with 10 was a winning side as well. This was a playoff atmosphere type game.
A winning combination that sees the record go to 14-6 70% and profit of $680. I'll review the Sunday card and see if anything stands out.
6 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Detroit Lions -1.5 (-110) Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-110) Bet $xxxx.00 to Win $xxxx.00 -110
Christmas Special !
Not going to go in depth here. You have two road teams that superior to the home team. The road teams are away for Christmas and the mindset is let's go out and win and spoil their Christmas. The home teams celebrated Christmas are full of happiness and then realize they are big dogs and just go back to enjoying Christmas.
There may be some late game heroics or it could be over early. It just depends on how much effort is put into today's game.
The bad thing is these aren't on national television which led to my post that the NFL Can Suck It...........
We are late in the season and many games are pretty much meaningless this week and next. I'm going to focus on games of importance because we should see a high level of play, I mean DET was on a thin margin and they just looked like they quit.
These teams won't quit though.........
7 Point Teaser (2 Teams) Los Angeles Rams -0.5 (-110) San Francisco 49ers +4 (-115) Bet $xxxxx.00 to Win $xxxxx.00 -130
I pounded this play and took advantage of weaker lines, this wager as all prior was made moments before making the post.
SF +4 - They have the tougher of the two games with Chicago, however, they have high motivation to win this game. They have the opportunity to win out and be the #1 seed and have everything come through SF including the Super Bowl. There is absolutely zero reason we should see a let down in this spot. The offense should be humming and as long as the D keeps Williams in check we should have no issues here. I still like getting the insurance of 4 points but I don't think we'll need it, but it never hurts to have it.
LAR -.5 - All we need to do is win the game, that's it. While the LAR have very slim shot at the top spot in the NFC, they want to head into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. They outclass ATL in every facet from the team, coaching and organization. As a stand alone game, they want to show exactly why they are contenders to win the Super Bowl. Remember I told you last week to buy futures on them to win the NFC and Super Bowl. Load up while the numbers are good.
SF +4 - They have the tougher of the two games with Chicago, however, they have high motivation to win this game. They have the opportunity to win out and be the #1 seed and have everything come through SF including the Super Bowl. There is absolutely zero reason we should see a let down in this spot. The offense should be humming and as long as the D keeps Williams in check we should have no issues here.
This rang true in a lot of ways and we escaped with the win no matter what would've happened on that final play.
LAR -.5 - All we need to do is win the game, that's it. While the LAR have very slim shot at the top spot in the NFC, they want to head into the playoffs firing on all cylinders. They outclass ATL in every facet from the team, coaching and organization. As a stand alone game, they want to show exactly why they are contenders to win the Super Bowl.
They cost us and it is the second time we've lost on a teaser with them. They looked very uninterested early and fell behind 21-0 at the half. They played the second half like they normally would play full game. Nice comeback and let's just say outside of the 4th down play to end the game, they sure made it interesting on the 3 plays before. Tough loss after the comeback but ATL played inspired for the home crowd but they played well above themselves and that was the difference.
We head to the unpredictable week 18 and there are a few games of meaning but that doesn't guarantee a play.
I didn't end the season the way I had hoped but let's face it, these aren't as easy as they look. Nonetheless another season of profit and who won't take that?
While this thread received very little fanfare or replies which is very disappointing, I'm glad I helped put some money into your pockets if you tailed all season long.
I just can't go out on a losing streak due to teams that showed no effort and paid the price.
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) -120 Baltimore Ravens +6 (-4) Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)
I went with the three games that mean the most on the Week 18 card and let me get to it.
TB +7.5 - I know TB has been a literal pile of dog shit the last eight weeks. They were favored in 6 games and managed to find a way to either not play the fist half or disappear in the second half and give games away.
When these teams met a few weeks back. CAR won by a FG and held on as TB mounted a game tying or winning drive to end the game.
TB had 21 more total yards. They held the ball for over 9 minutes more while only running 7 more plays. The turnover at the end of the game was the only turnover in the game. They were hurt with 8 costly penalties.
CAR is 3-5 on the road, TB 3-4 at home. I think this game will come down to three key factors,
Mayfield and how he plays along with his decision making, he is going to need to use his legs more. If TB can keep a clean game on the field and eliminate those penalties. Can TB do a better job against the run.
If they can do these three things, they win. I expect a tight game and believe TB is the right side here. The points are insurance.
SEA +7.5 - People will remember two things. Week 1 SF won at SEA 17-13 and they will remember what they saw on Monday night as Purdy sliced and diced the Bears up and down the field.
When I think of week 1 games, they truly are a week 4 exhibition game and I take them with a grain of salt. Yes it's true SF dominated the game in every facet but the scoreboard. SF had the ball nearly 38 minutes, ran 22 more plays and had 154 more yards on the road. Yet the score was only 17-13. Let's remind everyone that SF scored the go ahead TD with 1:34 left in the game. But do you recall what happened after that......... SEA started their final drive on their 35 and in 5 plays was down to the SF 9 in only 32 seconds. Remember Bosa sacking Darnold and he fumbled and SF recovered and that was ball game.
Let's fast forward since that game SEA has gone 12-2 including 7-1 on the road and SF has gone 11-4 including 5-2 at home. A lot of what SF does predicates on CMC, he leads the team in rushing and receiving. He leads the team with 17 TD's. Stop him or slow him down and you effectively shut down SF. SEA has multiple guys they can go to, Walker, Charbonnet, Smith Njigba etc. Even with Purdy's greatness the last 5 weeks, Mac Jones still leads the team in passing yards.
I can hear people saying but Darnold folds in the big games. I think this one is a lot different due to familiarity and the team has just been a machine on the road. They actually prefer playing away which is something you don't hear teams say. The line on a neutral field would have Seattle in the 6 point favorite range. They are the better all around team and can do a lot of different things that I don't think SF can. If the SEA defense does what it has all year to this point, I can't see them losing unless some fluky things happen.
I was on SF over CHI and wrote about it in this same thread. I think I have a good read on these teams and if SEA were to lose which I don't think they will, the points are more than enough for insurance purposes.
BAL +6 - I'm not going to be long on this one. It all comes down to QB and RB play here. Whether it's Jackson or Huntley they have an edge on Rogers. Yes Huntley has an edge on Rogers due to variables and the ability to move freely, something Rogers only does in a last case situation and has no choice. Henry vs Warren/Gainwell, who are you taking and yes you can take both for Pittsburgh but you won't because combined they aren't Henry.
When they last played Gainwell was the leader in the game for PIT with 4 carries for 15 yards, Metcalf had 7 catches for 148. No Metcalf, and using Friermuth as your best option outside of perhaps Warren, I don't think this is going to go well for PIT.
I like BAL to win this SU and to cover the -3.5 to 4 points and I see a convincing win at that.
10 Point Teaser (3 Teams) -120 Baltimore Ravens +6 (-4) Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-2.5)
TB +7.5
I think this game will come down to three key factors,
Mayfield and how he plays along with his decision making, he is going to need to use his legs more. If TB can keep a clean game on the field and eliminate those penalties. Can TB do a better job against the run.
If they can do these three things, they win. I expect a tight game and believe TB is the right side here. The points are insurance.
Mayfield had one INT and ran for 31 yards. Penalties were less than the last meeting with 6 and CAR had 5 of their own with one yard difference.
TB allowed only 19 yards rushing on 14 attempts and still only won by 2. I will say the CAR real game cover was a one of most obvious fixes that even a blind man could've seen. Up 16-7 with about 520 to go in the game and a FG makes the cover for TB no matter what CAR did after that. But wait, a blocked FG. Let's fast forward CAR 4th and 8 on the TB 48 and they magically connect on a 40 yard pass. 2 plays later it's a TD and 16-14. I'm not done, TB gets the ball and ultimately has to punt with 26 seconds. They down it at the CAR 3. Rather than put on a rush and still have 6 back, they rush 3 as Young gets a 18 yard pass completion. Any other time, they are putting on the rush and getting to the QB, a holding or a throw away to do it again. They can't give up the safety to have TB win by 4 and cover the 2.5. Sorry but it's just fucking laughable.
SEA +7.5 -
A lot of what SF does predicates on CMC, he leads the team in rushing and receiving. He leads the team with 17 TD's. Stop him or slow him down and you effectively shut down SF. SEA has multiple guys they can go to, Walker, Charbonnet, Smith Njigba etc. Even with Purdy's greatness the last 5 weeks, Mac Jones still leads the team in passing yards.
They are the better all around team and can do a lot of different things that I don't think SF can. If the SEA defense does what it has all year to this point, I can't see them losing unless some fluky things happen.
CMC 8 carries for 23 yards and caught 6 for 34. They shut him down. They shut down SF and held them to 3 points. SEA ran for 180 yards. SF had 9 1st downs, 173 total yards, held the ball for 22:12 on 42 plays. SEA ran 67 plays, 23 1st downs and had the ball 37:48. 361 total yards.
Complete domination..........
BAL +6 -
I'm just going to call BS here on this game period. This rivals the TB game and I haven't got to the game that is sticking in my crawl yet. A guy misses an EP for the second time in 4 years and like magic a guy that has missed 3 FG all year and that were all 50 yard plus magically misses a 44 yard attempt where he was 7 for 7 from 40-49 all season. Sorry but this is just all too fishy. Sure we win with the points but is it that the NFL just wants Rogers to have one more playoff run? I'm no conspiracy theorist or really truly believe in fixes but today was the day of all days where things stuck out for the world to see.
Other games - CLV getting a walk off FG. This after McPherson missed not one but two extra points. He had missed one all year. Why they didn't go for two to tie the game at 14 instead of trying to still be down 13-14 is beyond me. Well they ended up down 12-14! I guarantee in any other game, they are going for two.
I don't know if I can even talk about the ATL game up 19-10 with 2:52 to go. Game ends 19-17 and ATL doesn't cover 3.5. Let's just say Raheem Morris was fired instantly after the game for a damn good reason.
Any way, a winning ticket on the final week of the regular season and a 15-8 +540 finish. 65.21%
You won't find many if any with that kind of winning %. However not many found this thread in 2025 and how I feel right now is just as it has been for quite a long period of time here on the forum and in life. The feeling of being underappreciated and the things I do for people it's like they are now expected.
You know when athletes and performers know it's time or near time to end their career, I can honestly say, I know the feeling and every day the BS and what not continues, the closer I'm just going to wake up one day and pull the plug. Then what?
Kudos to a fine season FREAK. You did an excellent job not only in having a big winning season you gave insight into how you constructed your tickets and thoughts behind them. You don't see that kind of quality much anymore.
Thank you for educating this Canuck!
Your closing leads me to believe you are looking to close down due to feeling under appreciated and not receiving the proper credit for twenty five years and this topic.
Take this advice, you are appreciated but people don't come out and say it. People are wrapped up in electronic devices and society it seems doesn't care. I think of it as during the participation trophy period that it's now as you described it, expected.
Even here in the Great North people aren't as neighborly or outgoing towards others, it's more of a I don't want to deal with you attitude.
I try to post what I can and it's nowhere near anything of what you do and I'm sorry for that.
I hope people take care of you and I made a post in the Bad Man area and as I said I don't follow NFL as much but get a CFL contest going and I'm winning it!
I can't thank you enough for everything you do and that's a heartfelt thank you.
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